Börsipäev 12.detsember
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viskaks pilgu korra veel PWEI poole
eile osteti DEC 35 mega straddle
samas tundub, et osana selles tehingust osteti tagasi varem müüdud PUT'd
callid paistab, et on võetud ülemisest servast
erakordseid optsioonide liikumisi on vast varemgi olnud, kuid ma üle 1 kuu Traderis tagasi ei näe
PWEI short interest on väga ekstreemne, mis paistab rohkem enesetapuna
mida kogu sellest pildist arvata -
eile kirjutati välja Jan 35 straddle samade kogustega ca. 3450 lepingut
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Täna FEDi päev ning kauplemine arvatavasti päeva esimeses pooles rahulik.
JP Morgan upgrades Texas Instruments (TXN 29.30) to Overweight from Neutral
UBS downgrades Dril-Quip (DRQ 43.97) to Neutral from Buy
RBC downgrades Alcoa (AA 31.05) to Underperform from Sector Perform
J.P Morgan downgrades Micron Tech (MU 14.22) to Neutral from Overweight saying it is concerned with the memory-chip maker's growing inventory levels
J.P Morgan initiates Hansen Natural (HANS 33.05) with an Overweight
RBC upgrades Cameco Corp (CCJ 38.88) to Top Pick from Outperform
Morgan Stanley downgrades Liberty Property Trust (LRY 51.75), United Dominion (UDR 32.96), and Vornado (VNO 125.73) to Equal-Weight from Overweight.
NOK Nokia downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Oppenheimer, as a result of TXN comments yesterday evening, which discussed a slowing wireless sector
BBY on hädas konkurentsi ja marginaalidega. Jõulumüük tuli nähtavasti hinnaalanduste arvelt:
BBY says very competitive climate put pressure on our margins, resulting in earnings below expectations
BBY reaffirms FY07 $2.65-2.80 vs $2.82 Reuters consensus
BBY prelim $0.31 vs $0.35 Reuters consensus; revs $8.47 bln vs $8.45 bln Reuters consensus
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PWEI enam meie radaril ideena ei ole, kuna liiga palju liikuvaid osi ning äärmiselt palju silmi on seda jälgimas. Mis puutub straddle'sse, siis oodatakse liikumist : ). Aga üldiselt soovitan vaadata ka viimaseid SEC filinguid ning sealt on ka alanud kuu kohta huvitavaid arenguid näha.
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AIRN Airspan Networks initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Adams- tgt $6, given potential catalysts that could more than triple the co's rev growth rate . Viimasel ajal on ettevõte aina rohkem huvi ligi tõmmanud. Samasse valdkonda kuulub ka ALVR.
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GS prelim $6.59 vs $6.00 Reuters consensus; revs $9.41 bln vs $8.99 bln Reuters consensus
Trade Balance -$58.9 bln vs -$63.0 bln consensus
Futuurid kergelt negatiivsed ning GS samuti -
Täna pisut teistsugune ja märksa pikem tehniline vaade. Nimelt viskasin pilgi DJIA quarterly graafikule ning venitasin pildi üsna pikaks. On teada, et mõned nädalad tagasi tegi Dow kõigi aegade tipu, murdes läbi 2000. aastal tehtud vastupanutaseme. Breakup buy? Olen blogides kuulnud koguni kommentaare, et nüüd on prolbeemideta tee lahti 15 000 tasemeni. Optimistid :) Aga huvitav on see pikem pilt sellegipoolest, sest tavaliselt tehakse tehnilist analüüsi lühemaid perioode vaadeldes ning niivõrd pikka perioodi ilmselt ei jälgita. Põhjus selge, pikemal investeerimishondil kipub fundamentaalanalüüs paremini töötama. Libisevaid keskmisi ning nendel põhinevat MACDd võib aga sellegippolest jälgida, sest usk statistika toimimisse peaks olema sõltumatu investeerimisest ja kauplemisedukusest. Alloleval graafikul on näha, et MACD (deafult set 12,26) on teinud 2005-06 lõpus positiivse ristumise, mis on positiivne signaal. Wilderi DMI on samuti teinud positiivse ristumise ning tundub, et ADX on taas tõusmas, mis tähendab tõusutrendi algust. Tundub tõesti, et tegu on DJIA uue tulekuga. Paraku on enamik teisi populaarseid indikaatoreid kasutud, sest näiteks tõusva CMFi puhul on selge, et kahekümne aasta jooksul on kauplemismahud ja käibed on kasvanud. Seega, rohkem pika perioodi osas spekuleerima ei kipu. Tegu on kvartaalsete küünaldega ning enamik lühiajalisi kauplemisi (ka swingtraderite tehingud) toimuvad ühe küünla sees.
Varajased indeksite futuurid on miinuses enne tänast FOMCi. Toornafta jaanuarilepingud on kerges plussis ülalpool 61 dollari taset.
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PWEIst olete väljas, seda küll
huvitav on jälgida sellegipoolest
kui spekuleerida, et jaanuari straddle müüdi "hästi informeeritud" osalise poolt, siis pigem pakuks, et ka jaanuari jooksul ei toimu midagi
piraatide ostud on muidugi heaks toetuseks -
Citigroup Inc. named Robert Druskin, the head of its corporate and investment bank, as chief operating officer
Eilsest siis veel selline teade. Investorite jaoks, ilmselt liiga vähe, et meelestatust muuta. Eriti kui arvestada ootusi ümberkorralsuste suuruse suhtes.
Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., says he expects the diversified holding company to increase its net worth this year by a record $14 billion.
Vana rebane oskas oma aja jälle ära oodata. Muidugi, jäänud on veel 3 nädalat aga seniste ilmastikuoludega arvestades pole see tulemus ka väga üllatav.
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Aimar, pigem võiks otsida sarnasusi 70-ndatega. Tim Knight on väga kenad võrdlused INDU kohta avaldanud.
http://tradertim.blogspot.com/2006/12/more-cowbell.html -
Shark hoiatab, et kuigi tänane Fed võib osutuda non-event'iks, võib praeguses olukorras väiksemgi negatiivne nednepoolne vihje turule halvasti mõjuda.
Do-Nothing Fed Could Still Make Waves
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/12/2006 8:40 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"In any moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing."
-- Theodore Roosevelt
Although it is unlikely to contain any great surprises, the Fed's interest rate decision at 2:15 p.m. EST has the potential to be a market-moving event. The issue isn't so much what is said as the way the market reacts and the mood that is created. The great likelihood is that the Fed will do nothing, but it may indicate in its policy statement that even though the economy is slowing a bit there are still some minor signs of inflation.
That is pretty obvious to anyone who has been paying attention but the market has been embracing the "Goldilocks" soft-landing thesis for a while now. That idea has been the driving force behind much of the recent rally and is not only widely embraced but assumed to be true without question.
That level of optimism about the economic picture makes the market susceptible to a negative reaction even if there is no real change to the FOMC policy statement. The danger is that the Fed will serve as a catalyst for the market to reevaluate its thinking about where we are and how much longer this rally can last.
It may very well turn out that the news is greeted with a shrug and that we continue to plod steadily higher without a care in the world. However, we have had some minor signs of slippage in the past week or so. Even though the dip buyers have continued to do their thing they have been running out of steam earlier than they have in the past.
We are holding up very well and even making some upside progress but things have slowed. It might just be healthy consolidation before another leg up but given how extended the market is and the high level of complacency, it is going to be hard to really run hot and heavy for much longer.
I may be wrong about the reaction to the Fed but I believe there is a high likelihood of at least a minor negative reaction. That is what is in the back of my mind and I am prepared to act on it as events unfold.
In the early going we have a flat to negative start. Overseas markets were mostly lower with Japan showing some strength because of strength in exporters on a weak yen. Oil and gold are flat and we are in a wait and see mode. -
Terasesektor on eelturul päris tugeva löögi all, mis on eilsele nõrkusele jätkuks:
Nucor (NUE) announces that Q4 EPS are expected to be in the range of $1.05- $1.15 (vs $1.44 consensus). By comparison co says, it earned $1.09 per diluted share in 4Q05. Co had not previously issued numerical guidance for Q4 but had given qualitative downward guidance in the third quarter earnings release and the quarterly conference call. Co says Q4 earnings will be less than anticipated because spot market prices for sheet and bars are lower than expected and scrap prices have not decreased as much as anticipated, both factors which have negatively impacted our margins. "The inventory corrections at service centers and OEM's are continuing, as are domestic production cutbacks; however, the continued record levels of imports of finished steel are delaying this inventory correction. We expect to see the inventories back to desired levels by the end of the first quarter; however, this will depend entirely on a significant reduction of import volumes from current levels, particularly from China."
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AAPL kukub nagu kivi!
The Register reports Apple's iTunes has experienced a collapse in sales revs this year according to analyst co Forrester Research. Secretive Apple doesn't break out revs from iTunes, but Forrester conducted an analysis of credit card transactions over a 27-month period. And this year's numbers aren't good. While the iTunes service saw healthy growth for much of the period, since January the monthly rev has fallen by 65%, with the average transaction size falling 17%. The previous spring's rebound wasn't repeated this year. And it isn't just Apple's problem. Nielsen Soundscan has grimmer news for prospective digital download services, indicating three consecutive quarters of flat or declining revs for the sector as a whole. -
speedy,
PWEI liikuvate osade all pidas Oliver silmas seda, et aja kulgedes on spekulante muudkui juurde lisandunud. Nüüdseks on juba raske öelda, et kes on „hästi informeeritud” ja kes mängib selle peale, et n-ö keegi teine on ju ilmselgelt „hästi informeeritud”.
Mis Caxtonisse puutub, siis pole nad uut filing’ut positsiooni vähendamisest/suurendamisest/muutmisest sisse andnud. Nende varasematest raportitest on näha, et hunnik väiksemaid tehinguid on koondatud ühe raporti peale – seega on ka praegu raske öelda, mis nende reaalne positsioon aktsias on. Kuna Caxtonil on/oli nii optsioone kui ka aktsiaid, siis praeguse hinna juures nad miinuses olla küll ei tohiks (jah, detsembri optsioonide hind tuli strike 30 pealt ca $6.4, kuid nende aktsiad on see-eest ostetud madalamatelt tasemetelt kui praegune hind).
Samuti teatas Bear Stearns Asset Management täna uued andmed oma positsiooni kohta, mis on kuutaguse 10.93% pealt kukkunud 9.93% peale. Huvitav on ka see, et Pirate’i viimase aja ostud on kõik $34 pealt või napilt alla selle - ühe taseme pealt seega. -
AVNX buying BKHM
Kas on midagi täpsemat kuulda!?
BKHM 2% tõusus üldise languse taustal. -
Ei midagi ametlikku küll ei paista.
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FOMC leaves rates unchanged at 5.25% as expected
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Huvitav reaktsioon, DJIA üles, REIT (IYR) alla. Ootaks, et dow kah järgi läheb... Hääletamisel oli 1 liige intresside tõstmise poolt.
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Pole kaks päeva saanud mahti portfelli seisu vaadata, aga kui täna lõpuks avasin, paistab väiksemat sorti börsikrahhi moodi olevat. Juhtus midagi või? Pola mahti olnud ka uudiseid jälgida.
