Börsipäev 14. detsember
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Alustame päeva uudistega OPECi koosolekult:
OPEC to cut by 500,000 bpd from Feb 1, according to delegate - Reuters
Reuters reports that OPEC has agreed an oil output cut of 500,000 barrels per day, or two percent, delayed until Feb.1 when the northern winter is ending, a delegate said on Thursday, sending oil prices more than a dollar higher. By postponing a further reduction until peak demand has passed, OPEC is responding to importer nations' concern that a cut now will drive prices higher and hurt their economies. The group that pumps over a third of the world's oil has already curbed output this year -- by 1.2 mln bpd to 26.3 mln in October to halt a 10-week, 25% price slump. -
BofA initiates Netflix (NFLX 28.40) with a Sell and $24 tgt, based on higher than expected digital download spending, rising marketing expense, competition from a variety of emerging media alternatives, potential postage price increases, spending on content acquisition and new ventures such as Red Envelope and pricing power
Susquehanna initiates Alvarion (ALVR 6.86) with a Neutral, as the co has solid technology and has forged meaningful early traction in the WiMAX market yet the changing landscape of competitors from small to large, the shift in focus from fixed/nomadic to portable, and the yet early stage in the development of demand for WiMAX with the necessary device ecosystem lead them to stay neutral
Montgomery initiates TOM Online (TOMO 14.95) with a Buy and $18 tgt, as they believe the WVAS market is stabilizing and they expect a resumption of top-line growth in '07
Montgomery initiates SINA (SINA 28.91) with a Buy and $35 tgt, as they maintain there is significant synergy between its portal and WVAS businesses and look for a rebound in this business in 2007 as the overall operating environment for wireless improves and additional synergies are monetized with new technologies and platforms
J.P Morgan upgrades Peabody Energy (BTU 45.82) to Neutral from Underweight
UBS downgrades United Rentals (URI 26.04) to Neutral from Buy
Jefferies raises their Home Depot (HD 39.11) tgt to $48 from $45, as they believe the cyclical challenges plaguing the housing sector and its carryover impact on home centers is well-known and has already been discounted by investorsRochdale initiates Cypress Semi (CY 16.53) with a Buy
CIBC initiates FormFactor (FORM 35.52) with a Sector Outperformer and a $55 tgt saying their proprietary wafer probe card model on DRAM suggests industry re-design rate running at 2 per year—firm says if they are right and this metric bumps up to 3 per year, FORM's DRAM business would go from $70 mln to over $100 mln in 2H:07
Jefferies intitiates STP with a Buy and a $38 tgt saying they expect STP to benefit from long-term silicon contracts that should allow for the co to expand production, taking advantage of secular growth in solar
Credit Suisse downgrades DRIV to Neutral from Outperform with a $69 tgt saying their bullish outlook on Digital River has been predicated on their belief that that the co is uniquely positioned to benefit from the software industry's transition to the sale and delivery of software via the Internet. The firm says while they still believe in this long-term thesis, shares of Digital River have nearly doubled since the beginning of 2006, and the stock's relative valuation multiples are near or above five-year highs. The firm says that near-term risk/reward is fairly balanced.
Credit Suisse downgrades ADM to Underperform from Neutral with a $29 tgt primarily due to concerns about rising corn costs and valuation. The firm says their key points are: 1) their concern that value capture in biofuels will shift toward farmers and away from ethanol producers. Firm says they believe ADM's ethanol margins could decline from $0.70/gallon to close to $0.20/gallon representing $500 mln of reduced annual EBIT or $0.54 of EPS.
Jefferies notes that CKE Restaurants (CKR 17.91) stock was down 5% yesterday and they believe this creates a buying opportunity. Although 3Q FY07 earnings were viewed as in line, the firm believes there was some noise on the company's period 11 same store sales at Carl's Jr.
LEH Lehman Brothers reports Q4 (Nov) earnings of $1.72 per share, $0.04 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.68; revenues rose 22.8% year/year to $4.53 bln vs the $4.36 bln consensus.
BSC Bear Stearns beats by $0.64 (155.89 ) Reports Q4 (Nov) earnings of $4.00 per share, $0.64 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $3.36; revenues rose 27.9% year/year to $2.41 bln vs the $2.21 bln consensus.
WGO Winnebago reports Q1 (Nov) earnings of $0.25 per share, $0.06 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.31; revenues fell 13.1% year/year to $201.8 mln vs the $207.5 mln consensus. Co notes: "While we remained solidly profitable, the motor home market continues to be challenging," said Winnebago Industries' Chairman and CEO Bruce Hertzke. "The first quarter of fiscal 2007 was negatively impacted by lower motor home deliveries, particularly of higher priced models in all of our product classes."
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CIEN eelturul + 8%
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Ülespoole avanevad:
CIEN +5.2% (reports OctQ, beats by $0.04), STEC +5.9% (profiled in New America section of IBD), IO +5.3% (wins large contract), NUAN +4.8% (Citigroup initiates with $15 tgt), ASFI +4.3% (reports SepQ, beats by $0.16), PNTR +4.3% (bounces after 6.5% drop yesterday), FTEK +4%, GLH +3.6%, GPS +3.4% (Lampert could be eyeing Gap - WWD.com), GIGM +3.3% (announces game license agreement), MGAM +3.2% (reports SepQ results), ANDE +3.1% (BofA upgrade), COST +2.8% (reports NovQ), GUID +2.8% (extends yesterday's big move on IPO debut), F +1.6% (Merrill upgrade), RIMM +1.2% (Amtech raises tgt to $175)... Under $3: GNBT +21% (positive clinical trial results), INSM +16% (Iplex study results).
Allapoole avanevad:
STST -12% (reports SepQ, misses by $0.12, guides revs below consensus), GERN -10% (announces stock offering), XNN -8.6% (reports SepQ), ENCY -8.3% (FDA says Thelin response incomplete), PGLA -8.2% (profit taking after 120% move yesterday), CHRD -8% (reports SepQ revs below consensus, delays 10-K), MGLN -7.4% (guides below consensus), BECN -6.5% (reports SepQ), MAMA -5.1% (profit taking after 70% move in 2 days), NFLX -4.3% (BofA initiates with Sell rating, $24 tgt), SIRF -3.7% (TomTom second source is no longer a rumor - Jefferies), SMSI -3.3% (prices stock offering), DRIV -2.6% (Credit Suisse downgrade), ZMH -2.3% (guides below consensus, Piper downgrade), UTX -2.2% (provides earnings guidance, co says soft housing market a concern and commodity costs continue to be a headwind), WGO -2% (reports NovQ), BP -1.5%... Under $3: ALTI -6% (prices offering).
Tänased numbrid USA majanduse kohta:
Import Prices ex-oil +0.7%; varasem -0.6%
Initial Claims 304K vs 320K konsensus
Export Prices ex- ag +0.1%; varasem-0.5% -
Täna pakuks Sharki poolt eilse päevasisest kommentaari lugemiseks, kus ta tõi väga hästi välja, et ühest turuolukorrast (näiteks pulliturust) üleminek teisele(näiteks siis karuturule) võtab tavaliselt rohkem aega kui arvatakse.
Stickiness of Momentum
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/13/2006 2:10 PM EST
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
The market continues to hold up well overall in the face of increased negatives. We have yet to do any technical damage, and the point losses have been minor. Does that mean we are just going to shrug off the growing lists of worries and keep going higher?
Maybe, but the fact that we are still holding up well is simply the nature of a strong market. Momentum tends to be sticky, and turns are a process that play out over time.
The bulls don't suddenly decide in the course of a day to give up completely. They keep on coming, and it's only after they are turned back numerous times and fail to make progress that they begin to give up and the rollover accelerates.
I believe that is exactly what is happening right now. The bulls still have plenty of fight left in them and aren't going gently into that good night. But they are showing signs of fatigue, and the longer they struggle and don't regain control, the greater the likelihood that they start to lock in gains a bit more aggressively and increase their caution levels. -
Turud on otsimas suunda edasise liikumise osas. Eelturul olid indeksite furuurid kerges plussis, dow väikeses miinuses. Vaadates tehnilist pilti, näeme, et indeksite volatiilsus on kokku kuivamas ning kauplemisvahemik jäämas üha kitsamaks. DJIA proovis eile ajaloo kõrgeimat taset teha, kuid edutult. Näeme, et mõnenädalane kauplemisvahemik on õige kitsaks jäänud ning tekkinud on vähenev kolmnurk, mille ülemine, vastupanu on horisontaalne. Tavaliselt peetakse laugemat trendijoont tugevamaks, selle järgi võiks oodata tugevat korrektsiooni allapoole. Ka kahe libiseva keskmise erinevust kirjeldav MACD indikaator on jäänud negatiivseks - crossoverit ei tulnud.
Üldplaanis samasugust informatsiooni peegeldab ka Nasdaq. Pilt mõnevõrra neutraalsem. Indeks on langenud alla bollingeri eraldava libiseva keskmise ning volatiilsus on kõvasti langenud. Kangesti tahaks näga 50 päeva libiseval keskmise testimist.
Toornafta jaanuarikuu lepingud on tenud täna korraliku hüppe ülespoole. Ning põrganud 50 päeva libisevalt keskmiselt.
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AAPL käitub taas äärmiselt nõrgalt, mis ei pruugi turule üldiselt head tähendada.
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Maagaasivarudelt oodati keskmiselt -147 bcf-i võrra vähenemist(prognoosid kõikusid -175 kuni -135), mis oleks täpselt sama number, mis eelmise aasta samal perioodil. Reaalne vähenemine oli aga –168 bcf-i. Varud on nüüdseks 3,238 bcf-i peal. Eelmine aasta olid varud samal ajal 3,013 bcf-i. Nüüd jõuti esimest korda peale 2006. aasta veebruari 2000-2004. aasta vahel mõõdetud selle nädala maksimumvarude ülemisele äärde. Viimased 11 kuud on sellest pidevalt kõrgemal oldud.
