Börsipäev 8. jaanuar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Baltic Morning News
Stellar December results from Baltika (Neutral). December retail sales came in at EUR 6.19m, equal to y-o-y increase of 58%. The growth in December was considerably higher than that of in previous months (November +51.3%, October + 37.5%, Jan-Sept +28.4%). There were two main contributors: 9 new stores opened in November, and very successful Christmas sales (even despite relatively warm weather). In December, the company opened 2 new stores, both in Ukraine. The total number of stores at the end of 2006 was 112, whereof 26 stores were opened in 2006. In the first half of 2007, the company plans to open 12-16 new stores, mainly in Lithuania and Russia. The full year sales amounted to EUR 57.5m, equal to an increase of 32% y-o-y.
Vilniaus Baldai improves performance. BBN writes that the Lithuanian furniture maker Vilniaus Baldai has managed to increase its daily production by about 32.5%. In January to November 2006, the total sales amounted to LTL 101m, equal to y-o-y growth of 1.1%, and the net profit came in at LTL 1.944m, down from LTL 3.761m a year ago. The Q4 results will tell if the improved performance can also be seen in the P&L.
Selver to report Q4 this week. Selver, the subsidiary of Tallinna Kaubamaja is expected to release its Q4 results this week. Previously, the date for quarterly reports has been the 9th day of the month, i.e. on Tuesday. Maybe even more important, the company will also announce more detailed expansion plans to Latvia.
Highest growth in Lithuania. According to British real estate agency Knight Frank, drastic price hikes in real estate markets of some Eastern European countries is not a healthy sign and should end soon, BBN wrote. In spite of that, Knight Frank forecasts that housing prices will rise 20% in Lithuania in 2007, which will be the highest growth in Europe.
Estonia's unemployment on top. According to Eurostat, Estonia has one of the lowest unemployment rates in European Union. In November, Estonia's unemployment was 4.5%, which places it fourth in EU. Smaller unemployment was observed in Denmark (3.3%), Netherlands (3.8%) and Ireland (4.2%). Europe's average unemployment was 7.6% (in comparison, it is 4.5% in the USA and 4% in Japan).
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Huvitav, kas venelased oma börsi ka sel aastal millalgi lahti teevad?
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Nafta transiit Poola ja Saksamaale läbi Valgevene mineva Družba naftajuhtme, peatus täna öösel. Peasüüdlaseks peetakse siinkohal Valgevene ja Venemaa erimeelsusi, mis lahvatasid, kui Venemaa keeldus Valgevene suhkru importimisest, soovis gaasihinda kahekordistada ning kehtestada tollid naaberriiki voolavale naftale. Valgevene president Lukashenko otsustas aga, et sellise stsenaariumi korral on neil õigus küsida transiidimaksu läbi Valgevene muudesse Euroopa riikidesse suunduva nafta eest.
Samuti on spekulatsioonid ka muudel teemadel üles võetud. Üheks neist on Iisraeli võimalik rünnak Iraani tuumarajatistele ning turul on ka kuulujutud, et OPEC võib plaanida lisaks 1. veebruaril tehtavale tootmiskärpele veelgi edasisi kärpeid.
See kõik suurendab riski seoses nafta korrapärase tarnimisega. Kui eelmine nädal räägiti, et poliitilise riski preemia ei olnud ennast õigustanud ning see andis omakorda valusa löögi nafta hinnale, siis nüüd on ehk küsimus taas üles kerkimas.
Positiivset mõju on need nafta hinnale ka avaldamas.
‚Karuline’ õhkkond on selgelt võimust võtnud nafta hinna juures ning seetõttu on mõned julgemad analüütikud taas meelde tuletamas, et pikaajalised nõudlust mõjutavad komponendid pole veel kuhugi ära kadunud:
"With all the current bearish exuberance, we remind ourselves that Chinese demand, the overall (growth in the) economy, and the various geopolitical situations are hardly gone and should not be forgotten," said John Kilduff, senior vice president for energy risk management at Fimat USA. -
Hiina börsil kaubledav fond ishares FTSE/Xinhua (FXI) sai reedel kõvasti peksa, kukkudes üle 6%. Kuid oodatakse veelgi suuremat korrektsiooni, millest Barronsis on veidi pikemalt kirjutatud. Mõned lõigud panen ka siia:
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"At current levels, we expect a significant correction, particularly in financial stocks," says Shu Yin Lee, the manager of Dalton Greater China, a Shanghai-based hedge fund that rose 28% in 2006. "The state-owned banks are now trading at over three times book value in Hong Kong and four times on the A-share market" dominated by local investors, "and by market capitalization, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China is now larger than HSBC!"
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Samuti tuuakse välja, et n-ö makstav preemia Hiina aktsiate eest on tõusnud 38%-le, mida on alates 1994. aasta keskmisest üle 4 korra rohkem. Seega oleks ka mullilaadsest keskkonnast sobilik pisut õhku välja lasta.
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Early last week, Merrill Lynch's emerging-markets strategist, Michael Hartnett, said that Chinese stocks had run up late last year on huge inflows into stock funds that coincided with a December pause in the initial public offering calendar. "The liquidity bubbled straight through to equity prices," Hartnett wrote clients.
Today's China premium is 38% -- more than four times the average since 1994. How far does Hartnett see stocks falling? About 10% in the next four to six weeks. After all, in 2003, Chinese stocks rose 175%. In 2004, as night follows day, they fell.
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Tuletan siinkohal ka meelde, et Venemaa ja Ida-Euroopa fond Templeton Russia and east european Fund (TRF) langes eelmise nädala viimase kahe päevaga peaaegu 15%. Selliseid suuri kõikumisi ei saa kuidagi edumeelseteks nimetada ning paratamatult kisuvad mõtted teatuid paralleele tõmbama kevadise langusega. -
STJ teatas oma esmased tulemused Q4 osas. Positiivsete kommentaaride valguses tasub jägida Greatbatchi (GB).
St. Jude Medical, Inc., (NYSE:STJ - News) today announced preliminary results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2006.
The Company will report net sales of approximately $864 million for the fourth quarter of 2006, an increase of more than 9% compared to the fourth quarter of 2005 and approximately $20 million above current analysts' consensus revenue estimates. The Company also expects consolidated fourth quarter earnings per share to be approximately $0.42, which includes a benefit related to the recently approved research and development tax credit for the first nine months of 2006 of approximately $0.03 per share.
Fourth quarter sales of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) were $289 million, toward the upper end of the previously issued guidance range.
Pacemaker sales for the fourth quarter were $246 million, up approximately 6% over the fourth quarter of 2005.
UBS upgrades IBM (IBM 97.42) to Buy from Neutral and raises their tgt to $118 from $100, based on improving fundamentals
UBS upgrades semiconductor stocks to Equal-Weight from Underweight
Prudential downgrades Newmont Mining (NEM 43.65) to Underweight from Neutral and lowers their tgt to $40 from $50, as earnings don't appear robust at optimistic commodity price assumptions
Goldman downgrades Wal Mart (WMT 47.39) to Neutral from Buy and removing it from their Conviction Buy List.
Wachovia initiates Hertz Global (HTZ 17.44) with a Market Perform saying they believe Hertz's strong foothold in the rental car market and its growing presence in equipment rental translates into steady growth potential
Citigroup kommenteerib AMD:
➤ Field checks reveal that AMD sold socket 939 parts into US distribution inDecember at a deep discount. Production of 939 parts should fall from ~20%in 4Q06 to almost nothing in 1Q07, putting this transitional issue in the past.➤ December was weak for PC components as the supply chain worked throughpreviously built Pre-Vista systems. The Taiwanese PC supply chain had steepM/M declines in December for chip sets, communications and motherboards.➤ 1Q07 motherboard shipments are expected to be better than normal, decliningonly 3% vs. a normal decline of 7%. Solid motherboard builds could provide acatalyst for PCs with upside to CIR's forecast dependent on the uptake of Vista.➤ Lowering our 4Q06E revenue and EPS to $1,781M/$0.23 from $1,820M/ $0.27and 2007E to $8,382M/$1.16 from $8,464M/$1.24, but keep our Buy (1H)rating as risk/reward for shares of AMD shows $17 downside (based on 13.6xtrough) and upside to our revised price target of $26.
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Stocks to watch:
- Blockbuster (BBI) said it has agreed to sell its Rhino Video Games chain to GameStop (GME). Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. The sale is expected to close by the end of January. Rhino is a regional retail chain with 72 stores located in the southeast.
- Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) said President and Chief Operating Officer Barry Erdos is resigning, and the company named Scott Seay to succeed him. Erdos' resignation will reduce the St. Louis-based stuffed animal retailer's board to eight members.
- Forest Oil (FST) reached a deal to acquire Houston Exploration (THX) for about $1.5 billion in cash and stock, potentially ending a shareholder fight.
- General Electric (GE) agreed to acquire oil and gas operations from Vetco International for $1.9 billion from Candover, 3i and J.P. Morgan Partners. GE Industrial, a unit of General Electric (GE) said it has agreed to acquire Rochester, N.Y.-based Microwave Data Systems Inc., a subsidiary of Moseley Associates. Financial terms weren't disclosed. The transaction is expected to close this month, pending certain approvals. MDS employs about 275 people who design and manufacture networked high-speed, microwave radios for wireless communications solutions. Upon closing, the new business will be a wholly-owned GE subsidiary called GE MDS LLC, GE said.
- General Motors (GM) is heading into the Detroit auto show aiming to prove it can regain its status as a technology and design leader.
- Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT) expects to close its tire manufacturing facility in Tyler, Texas, in the first quarter of 2008, the company said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company estimates the charges associated with the closure will be between $155 million and $160 million. Goodyear said it recorded $107 million of the charges in the third quarter of 2006, and expects to record an additional charge of about $10 million in the fourth quarter of 2006 to reflect benefit arrangements set forth in the new master labor contract. The rest of the charges are expected to impact 2007 and early 2008. When complete, the closure of the Tyler facility is expected to generate annual cost savings of about $50 million, the company said.
- Hertz (HTZ) said it will cut roughly 200 jobs in the first of "a series of initiatives" to improve its competitiveness. The layoffs will impact employees at the company's corporate headquarters in Park Ridge, N.J., its service center in Oklahoma City, and in its U.S. field operations. The car rental company expects to save up to $15.8 million annually from the job cuts, and expects restructuring charges of $3.3 million to $3.8 million in the first quarter. "Throughout 2007, Hertz will implement a series of operational initiatives that should result in even higher levels of efficiency, enabling the company to maintain its position as the premium brand and service leader in our markets," said Mark Frissora, chairman and chief executive, in a statement.
- Motorola (MOT), the world's No. 2 mobile phone maker, cut its fourth-quarter sales and profit forecast as handset prices fell amid fierce competition.
- Pediatrix Medical Group (PDX) said that the U.S. Attorney's office in Miami has opened an investigation into its stock option grant practices. The health-care provider said it plans to cooperate fully on the matter. Pediatrix also said that its audit committee is working to complete the previously announced review of options as soon as possible.
- Smith & Wollensky Restaurant Group (SWRG) said that December sales at restaurants open at least one year rose 5.1% to $14.1 million. Total consolidated restaurant sales for the month increased 9% percent to $15.3 million, the New York-based company said. For the fourth quarter, comparable sales increased 3.9% to $33.5 million. Total sales for the quarter ended rose 7.5% to $36.2 million, the company said.
- Sony (SNE) and Microsoft (MSFT) said they reached key sales milestones for the holiday season for their game consoles.
- Yahoo (YHOO) is to unveil a new mobile search offering for cellphone handsets, stepping up its attack on the mobile market.
Market Summary- Asian trading closed with the Hang Seng -0.90%, Sensex -1.50%, Taiwan -1.26%, Shanghai +2.49% and Nikkei -1.51%.
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Citigroup Downgrades Deutsche Bank To Hold From Buy
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Joeli jutu illustreerimiseks ka pilt toornafta veebruari lepingutele.
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Piper Jaffray believes EBAY's Q4 listings are well below expectations, saying their proprietary count suggests total Q4 listings of between 578M-590 mln. These results are between 8%-11% below their 639 mln listing estimate for the quarter and could potentially be sequentially down in the seasonally strongest quarter (listings were up sequentially 19% in 4Q05 and 17% in 4Q04). Firm thinks weak auction revenues could cause a Q4 miss. Firm says that unless eBay can make a potential rev shortfall through forex benefit or Paypal, the co could be $0.01-$0.02 below their estimate and consensus P.F. EPS estimate of $0.28. Firm thinks Street expectations of over 20% growth for '07 or '08 are unrealistic.
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Minu jutu jätuks TRF ja FXI kukkumiste kohta võiks veel öelda, et India Sensex tegi päeva sees päris kiire kukkumise läbi, langedes pea 2%. Põhjuseks fondide ja jaeinvestorite laiapõhjaline müümine.
Reedel avaldati aga RealMoney’s päris huvitav lugu optsioonide kohta. Nimelt, Steven Smith toob välja, et put/call suhtarv aktsiatel on 0.58 ja indeksitele kõigest 1.55 (putte kasutatakse hedge’imiseks). Tavaliselt, kui turul hakkab hirm domineerima, on indeksite vastav suhtarv 3 lähedal. Seetõttu leiab ka Smith, et kuna n-ö allapoole liikumise kindlustust on fondidel liialt vähe, on neil raske ka kiireid allapoole liikumise spike’e ostma hakata, mis omakorda muudab turu kergemini haavatavamaks.
Ja lõpetuseks OPECi ja Iraani kohta:
OPEC, the producer of 40 percent of the world's oil, will "most likely'" not take any action to reduce production further before a cut of 500,000 barrels a day becomes effective Feb 1, said the group's spokesman. However a move before the March 15th meeting cannot be ruled out. Helping energy prices this morning is word the National Weather Service is calling for temperatures to fall below normal in the western U.S. this week and bring cooler weather across most of the nation in the period through Jan. 20, (they previously called for above avg temps through Jan 15 so we are now seeing natural gas prices bounce). Iran continues to say it won't end its push for nuclear energy.
"There won't be any oil to export within 10 years if the government doesn't implement projects for increasing capacity, protect existing facilities and control consumption in Iran," Mohammed Hadi Nejad-Hosseinian, Iran's deputy oil minister for international affairs was quoted as saying. -
Ülespoole avanevad:
SGEN +31% (announces license agreement with DNA), TSTC +23% (wins bids from four telecom operators... See recent profile for information on company), BBC +20% (updates guidance, names new CEO), USPI +14% (to be acquired), ILSE +11% (to be acquired by EYE), MVIS +10.5% (announces deal with Visteon), INCY +10% (to announce positive clinical data, also Piper upgrade), AFFX +7.7% (announces Q4 revs), STEM +8.4% (LA Times reports that researchers have found stem cells in amniotic fluid which would avoid embryo dilemma, also ASTM +6.2%), STJ +7.1% (reports Q4 revs), SVNT +6.7% (Cramer names stock as his No. 3 speculative play for 2007), BRLC +9.4% (guides DecQ revs well above consensus), VG +5.8% (to sell W-Fi in Earthlink deal - WSJ), SLP +5.6%, TIVO +5.1% (announces deal with RealNetworks; also Bear Stearns upgrade), LVLT +4.4% (Cramer names stock as his top speculative play for 2007), MAMA +2.5% (extends Friday's 6% move), EMC +1.8% (UBS upgrade), IBM +1.2% (UBS upgrade), CVS +1.1% (Caremark rejects ESRX bid)... Chinese stocks are higher in pre-mkt: CPSL +7.4%, LFC +6.6%... Under $3: EGHT +15% (says subscriber base has grown to 6,000), WEL +11%.
Allapoole avanevad:
DVAX -22% (co says Tloamba drug test is inconclusive), MED -10.6% (negative Barron's article, says CEO was posting messages on mesage boards), NUHC -9% (reports NovQ), MOLX -7% (lowers guidance), TLAB -6.3% (guides below consensus; also Morgan Keegan downgrade), EDGR -6%, SCHN -5.9% (reports NovQ), MEMY -4.2% (profit taking after 20% move in 2 days), CHU -3.2%, CCRT -2.6% (guides lower), HMY -2.3% (extends recent weakness), NYX -2.3% (profit taking after 8% move on Friday), GSK -2.2%. -
Nasdaq ja DJIA vahelduseks ka S&P 500 tehniline pilt. Näeme, et indeks on tulnud esmakordselt peale tõusutrendi algust tulnud allapoole bollingeri keskmisest ning maandunud selle alaservas. Ehk siis ajaloolise volatiilsuse teises ääres. Iseenesest võib lugeda seda ka tehniliselt päris korralikuks põrkekohaks, sest siin asuvad nii lühiajaline toetustase kui 50 päev alibisev keskmine. Sellest läbi murdumine oleks negatiivseks signaaliks, mida omakorda toetab indikaatorite vastassuunaline liikumine ning RSI nõrkus oma ajaloolisel toetusel. Ka CMF on muutunud negatiivseks ning tõusu ei toeta. Ilmselt ei ole lühiajaline põrge väga jätkusuutlik ning indikaatorite järgi võiks langust alla toetustasemete oodata.
Küünalde austajatele on Nasdag 100 graafikul näha Bearish Harami:
Hästi põgus pilk finantssektori SPDRile. Tehniliselt on tundub sektor nõrk, sest daily graafikul on tuldud allapoole 20 päeva libisevat keskmist ning toimunud on MACD negatiivne crossover. Näeksin esimest toetust 50 päeva MA juures. Ka weekly chart näitab ajutist ülehinnatust ning sealne MACD on mõne nõrga päeva kaugusel.
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Don't Buy for the Sake of Buying
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/8/2007 8:12 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
No great man ever complains of want of opportunity.
-- Ralph Waldo Emerson
As I studied charts this weekend I was quite troubled by my inability to find much of anything I wanted to buy. There were a few charts of interest in the semiconductor sector, and I can find things that are fine technically with uptrends intact but there was little that I felt a strong desire to plow some capital into. It wasn't that things were breaking down and looked poor, but that little was set up well and beckoning participation on the long side.
When that happens I have to step back and ask myself if I'm lacking objectivity. Am I being overly selective and letting a preexisting negative bias influence my thinking as I study charts? It is very tough question to answer and I'm sure many will say that is exactly the situation since the market isn't exactly falling apart.
The main thing I have to do is to be particularly sensitive to any underlying bias. I have to ask myself if the reason I don't like this or that chart is because I'm already predisposed to not buy or is there some real reason to be skeptical? It is a difficult exercise because chart reading is not something that is totally objective. I think of technical analysis as more an art form than a science, and therefore there is always going to be a totally subjective element to it.
So what do I do other than redouble my efforts to keep an open mind? Do I force myself to buy some things I really don't feel that comfortable with? From past experience that usually doesn't work so well, which leaves me sitting on the sidelines and waiting. That isn't all that bad. After all nothing is preventing me from changing my mind and being more active on the long side should I start to feel more comfortable with some charts.
The biggest difficulty with this approach for many is that if the market does rally it can feel tremendously frustrating. Many market players find sitting on the sidelines when the market is up to be far more upsetting than being long and wrong. Missed opportunities can play havoc with your thinking if you let them.
So I'm going to stick with what my analysis of charts this weekend uncovered and am going to be doing little on the long side. I may be wrong but I came to this party with chart reading and it has treated me well over the years, so I'll stick with it even while those around me continue to feel excited about the upside potential of this market.
Make sure you take a look at my review of the major index charts at RevSharkBlog.com. As you can see the small cap index has broken support while the senior indices are still holding on. We aren't falling apart but there is danger lurking.
We have some upgrades of big cap techs such as IBM (IBM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Intel (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) this morning that is shoring up the mood. Oil and gold are bouncing after the carnage of last week and European indices are mostly green. I'm particularly curious to watch how China stocks act this week. They have been hot for quite a while now and there is talk that the central government wants to cool things off. -
"..Küünalde austajatele on Nasdag 100 graafikul näha Bearish Harami.."
Aimar, tõesti! Need kommentaarid on juba päris harakiri. Unusta need indikaatorid lõpuks nüüd ära ja tee natuke tõsisemat researchi ka. Turg ei ole selle järgi ennustatav, et MACD liikus üle RSI. Testi kasvõi statistiliselt. Ja veel ühe indikaatori lisamine ei tõsta suuna tabamise tõenäosust, ffs. -
nextphase, indikaatorid näitavad asja nii nagu see ka on. Liikumist ei pruugi tabada, kuid saab hinnata tõenäosust ühes või teises suunas. Tehniline pilt ei ole pullide jaoks hea.
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scorpious, kõik need öljardid indikaatorid taanduvad ju kahele muutujale: hind ja käive.
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sorry, aga MACD, RSI jne. ei näita tõepoolest mitte midagi. Absolutely zero predictive power.
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Indikaatorid
RSI ja MACD-hind
CMF-käive
Hind ja käive
Millest te aru eisaanud? -
Minumeelest ei olegi õige vaadata ainult idikaatoreid, vaid ka trendi, turu tervist, volatiilsust jne. Kui erinevad tegurid ühte suunda või suunatust näitavad, siis selle järgi tuleb ka oma otsus teha.
Hinna, käibe ja uudiste järgi kauplevad päevakad, siis ei olegi aega sul midagi muud vaadata. Muidu oled rongilt maas. -
nextphase - peale foorumi võid siis aegajalt ka finantsportaali analüüsidele pilgu visata, sealt ehk leiad midagi sisukamalt.
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Aimar,
Sa siis ise ka tunnistad, et see mis sa siia foorumisse paned ei kannata tegelikult kauplemise seisukohalt mitte mingisugust kriitikat? OK, ma saan mõnes mõttes aru nendest uudistest, mis sa siia pasted. Kuigi, mis kasu peaks olema inimestel sellest:
"....Smith & Wollensky Restaurant Group (SWRG) said that December sales at restaurants open at least one year rose 5.1% to $14.1 million. Total consolidated restaurant sales for the month increased 9% percent to $15.3 million, the New York-based company said. For the fourth quarter, comparable sales increased 3.9% to $33.5 million. Total sales for the quarter ended rose 7.5% to $36.2 million, the company said...."
Ja kümme sellist uudist veel. Kvantiteedile rõhumise asemel võiksid proovida hoopis kvaliteedile rõhuda. Ma tõesti-tõesti ei usu, et sa midagigi näiteks SWRG kohta teaksid. Võta näiteks homme ette üks suurem uudis ja keskendu selle analüüsimisele. Inimestel on huvitavam/kasulikum ja seeläbi ilmselt firmal ka. Ise ka arened. Püüa leida treid. Kui läheb valesti, siis läheb. Kõigil hea õppida.
Mis puutub sinu soovitusse visata pilk analüüsidele (LHV Pro-le viitasid vist?), siis ma ei mäleta, et oleksin midagi sealt sinu sulest leidnud. Ainult balti tiim ning ait / kukemelt tandem. Sten ka.
Ma saan aru, et non-trading backgroundiga inimese jaoks on raske, kui ta äkitselt satub olukorda, kus peab hakkama kauplemissoovitusi andma. Eks see ole muidugi firma bläkk ka, kui nii juhtub. Aga ma ei leia, et mu kriitika oleks alusetu. Pigem konstruktiivne.
Kokkuvõttes tundub mulle, et sa oled tänaseks piisavalt palju graafikuid vaadanud ning oleks aeg edasi liikuda. Uuri, mis paneb tegelikult aktsiad turul liikuma. Graafikul on oma koht täiesti olemas ja kui sa oled neid piisavalt eyeballinud, siis tekib ka teatav tunnetus. Aga see pole kindlasti ainuke asi, mida vaadata. Oled kuulnud ütlust, et keegi pole veel kunagi kohanud ühtegi rikast TA meest? Ja nii see ilmselt ka on. Pole mõtet teisi ja eelkõige ennast lollitada. -
Päris huvitav lugemine ja igatahes suured tänud kriitika eest. Ei pidanud silmas LHV PROd ning soovitan kindlasti need kaks asja edaspidi eraldada. Nende taga on erinev meeskond, nende eesmärk on erinev. Kolmandana proovi eraldada sisust foorum, kus näiteks seaduse järgi ei ole meil võimalik konkreetseid soovitusi anda. Samuti ei pea ma otstarbekas foorumis suuri analüüse kirjutada - selliseks contentiks on omaette koht. Väike update: tänaseks külastab LHV foorumeid üle 10 000 inimese ning neist on kauplejaid ehk kusagil 2-3 protsenti. Seega püüame pakkuda lugemist, informatsiooni kõigile. On täiesti mõistetav, et mõnele külastajale teatud asjad ei sobi ja mõned konkreetsed isikud ütlevad selle ka avalikult välja. Üldiselt seda ei tehta või ollakse valdavalt positiivsed ja püüame ennast kohandada kõigi jaoks.
Aga tänud Sulle veelkord ja kena uue aasta algust. -
Aimar kirjutas:
"tänaseks külastab LHV foorumeid üle 10 000 inimese"?
Kuidas seda tõlgendada? Kuidas need 10 000 loendatud on? -
Unikaalsete külastajate arv peaks sellesse kanti jääma, paraku seal sees veidi müra ning hindaks päevakülastajate arvu 7000-8000 peale.
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7000-8000 on siis puhtalt foorumite unikaalsete kasutajate arv päevas?
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Arv tundub liiga suur. Huvitav, aktiivseid kommenteerijaid on ju umbes paarsada.
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See on muljetavaldav number, kuigi mina näiteks kasutan päeva jooksul kahte arvutit raudselt, vahest rohkem.
Arvan et paljud kasutavad tööl üht ja kodus teist -
Nõus, et tihti vaadatakse nii kodust kui töölt LHV lehte ja see number reaalselt võiks väiksem olla. Külastajate arvult peaks LHV leht emori 20 suurema lehe hulka küll kuuluma. http://tnsmetrix.emor.ee/Default.aspx
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kas see number on saadud IP aadresside järgi?
palju on sisse loginud unikaalseid külastajaid, st. aliase/konkr. kasutaja järgi? -
AloV, nüüd räägid LHV lehest (vs. foorum). Ma arvan, et üle poole LHV külastajatest ei loegi foorumit. Seega 10 000 asemel räägime me vast numbrist max. 3000 kandis.
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LHV foorumite külastatavust on väga lihtne igaühel meist ise testida :)
Endal kahjuks selleks aega pole, aga LHV ise ilmselt seda ka väga takistada ei saa/pole mõtet.
Nimelt pannes foorumi teksti sisse pildi, siis pildi asukohana määrates enda serveri saab logidest pildi requestid kokku korjata ja läbi analüüsida.
Seda siis iga foorumi threadi kohta eraldi. Koondaruannet see ei anna. -
Ma jällegi arvan vastupidiselt Kristjan Lepikule, et LHV lehel klikatakse enamjaolt selleks, et foorumisse saada. Foorumite sisu näitab tihtipeale seda, et mujale üldse ei vaadata. :(
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Delfis ju LHV uudised ja http://lhv.delfi.ee/
See on hea reklaam ning seda arvestades 10 000 külastust päevas küll palju ei ole. -
Harryy, eks ma LHVs töötades omasin ülevaadet külastusdünaamikast, seega ma ei pakkunud huupi seda, et paljud foorumit ei vaatagi.
Viimase lause koha pealt sul kahjuks õigus! -
Kristjan, aasta ajaga on LHV külastusdünaamikas ka väga palju muutunud ning selle koha pealt tasub ikka Alo praeguseid kommentaare tõsiselt võtta. Harryy väide, nagu mujale ei vaadataks, on minu arust alusetu ja kipub niisama "lahmimise" poole.
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Oliver, sa ei taha ometi väita, et päevas loeb LHV foorumeid keskmiselt 7000-8000 unikaalset külastajat?
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Kristjan, ma ei väidagi seda! Pigem seda, et foorumeid on võrreldes aastatagusega rohkem lugema hakatud. Lisaks on foorumite ja teemade dünaamika samuti muutunud. Lisaks nagu Alo mainis, on nendes numbrites ka palju müra sees.
Lisaks ma ei saa ikkagi aru, kust tuleb väide, et foorumite tõttu mujale ei vaadata, samal ajal väites, et paljud külastajad foorumeid ei vaatagi. -
Oot, milliseid Alo kommentaare sa mul siis tõsiselt soovitasid võtta?
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Ma olen nõus, et 7-8K on liiga palju. Alo väited selles osas tõsiselt võtta, et aastatagusega on külastajate arv tõusnud! Ja jätkuvalt räägid Sa külastatavusdünaamikast leht versus foorumid täiesti põhjendamatult.
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Alo väited selles osas tõsiselt võtta, et aastatagusega on külastajate arv tõusnud! Ma küll ei leidnud, et Alo siin foorumis midagi sellist väitnud oleks.
See külastusdünaamika pole nüüd just väga oluline teema, aga kui LHV lehel käib päevas näiteks X unikaalset külastajat, siis mitu protsenti sellest X-ist loeb mõnda foorumiteemat? Jüri saab selle ehk järgi vaadata. -
Pärast uut lhv kujundust tõusis ilmselt foorumi lugejate klikkide arv kordades, varem oli üks põhifoorum ja kui seal suur vaikus (loe: öö), siis sai ka algajate jms teemad läbi klikitud.
Nüüd on esimese taseme kategooriaid rohkem ja selleks, et uute postidega kursis olla, ei jää midagi üle, kui ahvi kombel kuue lingi vahel ringi klikkuda.
Kui vähegi ressursid lubavad, siis võiks lisaks praegusele olla ka üks leht/aken/portlet, kus on kõikide kategooriate viimased postid kronoloogiliselt kokku agregeeritud.
