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Börsipäev 11. jaanuar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Baltic Morning News

     

    Olympic Casino reports preliminary sales. Sales of Estonian casino operator Olympic Entertainment Group increased 89% yoy in 2006 to EUR 106m. At the same time, sales in Q4/06 grew 74% yoy to EUR 32m (sequential increase of 15%). A bit worrying was that the opening of new casinos seems to take longer than expected. As of Jan 10, Olympic operated 80 casinos in 5 countries (Q3/06 report indicated that the number could be bigger).

    Merko gets an order. The Estonian construction company Merko signed a contract with Evore regarding the construction of a car and repair shop in Tartu, Estonia. The value of the contract is EEK 52m (excl. VAT). The works is scheduled to be completed by January 3rd 2008.

    Lowest inflation in Lithuania. Lithuania posted December inflation of 4.5%, the lowest in the Baltics. The other Baltic countries, Estonia and Latvia, reported higher inflation in December, 5.1% and 6.8%, respectively. Similarly to other Baltic countries, housing expenditures went up most (+10.3% y-o-y) in December in Lithuania, followed by the increase in prices of healthcare (+5.9%). The only commodity group which saw lower prices in December compared to a year ago was clothing and footwear (-3%). The annual inflation in Lithuania was 3.8% in 2006.

    Tallink’s vessel smashed into the dock. Tallink’s (Neutral) vessel Silja Symphony slightly smashed into the dock in Mariehamn due to bad weather conditions. According to the dock manager, the corridor which is used by passengers to get off the ship was completely destroyed and has to be replaced. At the same time, Swedish trade union continues to claim damages from the executives of Tallink for their outrageous behavior on board of a Silja Line ferry in October.

    Cannot fight inflation. Real inflation reduction in Latvia could begin around 2009-2011, Latvian Prime Minister Aigars Kalvitis said on Wednesday. "We cannot do anything about it any earlier because there are objective reasons for the growth of inflation.” The 6.5% inflation in 2006 was higher than Latvian officials had expected, The Baltic Times wrote.

    Lithuanian jobless rate among lowest in EU. According to Eurostat, Lithuania has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the whole EU. In November, the unemployment rate was 5.6% in Lithuania, the ninth lowest among 25 EU member states. This is also confirmed by Lithuanian companies. Yesterday we wrote about a study according to which half of Lithuanian construction companies said shortage of labour was affecting their operations. Actually, the same problem applies also to many other business sectors

  • Hiljuti haipis Cramer oma saates Six Flagsi (SIX). Aktsia tõusis selle peale päris tugevalt ning eile tehti see tõus languse näol tasa. Tüüpiline reaktsioon Crameri hype jälitajate tekitatud maaniale. Aga seda lühikest intervjuud võivad huvilised kuulata siit. MAD-MAD-MAD

     

  • Börsipäev 29. detsember oli lõik 2006 aasta suurimatest tõusjatest ja langejatest.
    Suurim tõusja 2006 (FRPT +1950%) kauples siis FRPT.OB all.

    Eile peale börsipäeva anti teada:
    Force Protection, Inc. Announces Move to NASDAQ Capital Market
    Wednesday January 10, 7:42 pm ET
    LADSON, S.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Force Protection, Inc. today announced that it has been approved to list its securities on the NASDAQ Capital Market. The armored vehicle manufacturer will retain its FRPT trading symbol. The Company's NASDAQ listing will be effective and commemorated by Force Protection at an Opening Bell Ceremony in New York City on January 18, 2007.

    Edulugu seotud Iraagi sõjaga, toodab pommikindla(ma)id masinaid sealses miinirohkuses liiklemiseks.
    Detsembri lõpust veel alljärgnev uudis:

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - General Dynamics Corp. (GD : General Dynamics Corporation

    FRPT will form a joint venture to compete for the U.S. Marine Corps contract for the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicle program, the companies said. The core of the program is Force Protection's Cougar vehicles, first used by the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force in Fallujah, Iraq, Force Protection said. Under the MRAP program, the Marine Corps and the U.S. Army are seeking a replacement for the humvee, with a purchase of up to 20,500 vehicles in three different categories. If all options are exercised on the contracts, Force Protection said in a regulatory filing, the estimated value would be up to $10 billion.
  • - Hornbeck Offshore (HOS) andis eile hilisõhtul kasumihoiatuse nii neljandaks kvartaliks kui ka kogu 2007. aastaks. Tegemist on peamiselt Mehhiko lahel tegutseva ettevõttega, mis tegeleb OSV-teenuse (offshore suppy vessels) pakkumisega suurtele nafta ning gaasiettevõtetele. Klientide nimekiri on kaunis muljetavaldav.

    Eilne kasumihoiatus on minu teada antud piirkonnas tegutsevate ettevõtete seas esimene ning annab tugeva signaali kogu sektori jaoks. Kuna nafta hind on viimasel ajal tõsiselt pihta saanud, siis on ka nende poolt pakutavate laevateenuste hinnad hakanud kukkuma. Naftafirmad ei ole lihtsalt nõus rohkem maksma. Märke raskuste kohta oli juba kolmanda kvartali tulemuste ajal, kuid vähesed analüütikud aimasid probleemide tegelikku suurust ning ei langetanud oma prongoose. Või siis ei taibatud reageerida nafta nii kiirele kukkumisele nagu ma nüüd näinud oleme.

    Goldman Sachs alandab täna oma reitingu Sell peale (varasem Neutral) oodates vähemalt 15% kukkumist lähinädalatel. Tõenäoliselt kukuvad aktsiad täna juba 10%, kuna see on praktiliselt esimene hoiatus HOS-i poolt. Ettevõtte varasem track-record on väga puhas.

    Küsimus: Millised sarnased ettevõtted on veel tugevas sõltuvuses antud piirkonnast? Milliseks prognoosite nende aktsiate liikumist täna? Põhjendada!

    - Eile õhtul avaldas oma neljanda kvartali tulemused Genentech (DNA). Tulemused olid üldiselt oodatust paremad, kuid mõned ravimid müüsid eriti hästi vs. ootused. Nendeks olid Lucentis ($217 mln vs $160 mln) ning Tarceva ($107 mln vs sub-$100 mln).

    Kas oleks võimalik kuidagi eraldi mängida nende kahe ravimi tugevust? Miks?

    Kutsun üles vastama eelkõige muidugi Aimarit, kuid arvestades, et eelmisele üleskutsele suutis ta vaid vastu hämada, siis ei oota ma ka seekord midagi enamat. Plaanin aegajalt ka tulevikus sarnaseid küsimusi üles panna. Loodetavasti pakuvad need mingit vaheldust turgudest veidi tõsisemalt huvitatud lugejatele.
  • Vot see juba läheb! Kasulik informatsioon. HOS graafik paistab ka kena välja.
  • Six Flags Agrees to Sell Seven Parks for $312 Million
  • Genentechi Lucentise ja Tarceva müügitulemuste peale liikujate hulgast võiks ühena välja tuua näiteks OSI Pharmaceuticals (OSIP).
  • - Eile õhtul avaldas oma neljanda kvartali tulemused Genentech (DNA). Tulemused olid üldiselt oodatust paremad, kuid mõned ravimid müüsid eriti hästi vs. ootused. Nendeks olid Lucentis ($217 mln vs $160 mln) ning Tarceva ($107 mln vs sub-$100 mln).

    Oskamata nimetada nimesid, pakun variante:

    A) Lucentis ja/või Tarciva müügitulud jagatakse mõne pisema tegijaga, kellega koos käis ravimi arendus vms.
    B) Lucentis ja/või Tarciva omavad konkureerivaid ja/või sarnase toimega ravimeid, mis annavad olulise osa mõne teise firma müügituludest - müü neid lühikeseks eeldusel, et nad on turuosa kaotanud, osta neid eeldusel, et selle klassi ravimite kogumüük on kasvanud

    kui mu mälu mind ei peta, siis ... sympathy play is name of the game :)
  • HOS võib -18% pealt olla isegi kerge põrkemäng eelturul. Aga see on vaid sisetunde põhjal siinkohal.
  • GMRK ma 31.58 pealt ei shordiks:)
  • Kuradile see HOS, Cramer says GOOG next target 513 :)
  • Six Flagis poolt müüdavad pargid läksid üle 10x 2006. aasta parkide EBITDA eest. Varem on müüke tehtud väiksematel näitajatel. Kindlasti tasub kuulata homset nendepoolset calli kell 12.00 EST, kus tehtud tehingu üle arutatakse ning 2007. a guidance' ümber hinnatakse.

    Harjumuspärane Sharki arvamus ka:

    Aiming for Greater Short-Term Flexibility

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/11/2007 8:52 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "Happiness is not a matter of intensity but of balance and order and rhythm and harmony."

    Thomas Merton

    As the new year begins, earnings seasons approaches and a massive rally continues, our goal should be to seek balance, order, rhythm and harmony in our approach to the market. One of the most dangerous things we can do is let the intensity of our feelings about where the market is headed blind us to the short-term reality of what is happening.

    The one great certainty about the market is that things will always change. When we lose sight of that fact and dig in our heels on a particular viewpoint or thesis, it can create tremendous stress as we deal with an environment that may not appreciate our great insight. Rather than adjust their viewpoint as conditions change, the natural tendency of most people is to look for reasons to stick with their original decision.

    I've been trying lately to be more flexible in the short term while continuing to embrace a longer-term market thesis. Although I believe the market is headed for a rather nasty pullback soon, I don't want to dismiss the possibility that I'm wrong, nor do I want to overlook the opportunities that exist in the shorter term.

    I've written many times that we should trade what is in front of us rather than attempt to formulate some market theory and then sit there and hope it comes to pass. That doesn't mean we shouldn't have some thesis about how things will evolve, but we should also attempt to stay in harmony with the market in the short term, rather than fight it, so that we better appreciate how things will play out. If we are in tune with the rhythms of the short term it will make our longer term thinking even better.

    A surprise increase in interest rates by the Bank of England and rumors that the Bank of Japan is also considering a rate hike are putting a little pressure on the markets in the early going. Stocks in England reversed sharply intraday when the surprise 0.25% increase hit, boosting rates to 5.25%. The market expected a rate hike in February but strong growth in the services sector and a rebounding housing market has flamed concerns about inflation. Inflation in England recently rose to 2.7%, which is quite a bit higher than the 2% target rate .

    Here's the question the U.S. market is contemplating: "If they have inflation in England and Japan, isn't there a chance we may have some danger of it here?" We have recently seen the chances of an interest rate cut in the first half of the year diminish, and if inflationary concerns continue to bubble, the market is going to wrestle with that.

    Oil is under pressure yet again but gold is bouncing. Overseas markets are mostly lower with some strength in Europe and weakness in Asia. We have a flat open ahead of us.
  • TRMA short here HOSi uudiste peale.
  • Paistab, et peale niisama graafiku vahtimisele, tuleb firmadevahelisi seoseid pähe tuupima hakata.
  • Näe vaadake, kuidas raha tehakse. Abesiki tõi välja parima mängu ja olen kindel, et ta teenis selle treidiga väga ilusasti. Well done!
  • Ahjaa, miks TRMA parim mäng? Sest et tal on noteeritud ettevõttest kõige kõrgem avatus just sellele sektorile, milles HOS nõrkust märkis - madalas vees olevate puurimisaukude teenindamine mehhiko lahes.
  • OSIP doing the funky chicken dance too! Guess why?
  • Lisaks muule ... Inglise pank tõstis intresse, ja uudised kajastavad seda kui üllatust (ma tõesti ei tea miks - kogu UK kinnisvara kohtua liikunud infoga on juba tükk aega kaasnenud arvamus, et aasta alguses tuleb taas tõus), USA tungis Iraagi kurdistanis Iraani saatkonda ja demokraadid on pehmelt öeldes skeptilised Bushi üleskutse suhtes Iraaki rohkem sõdureid saata.
  • Gaasivarud vähenesid sedapuhku -49bcf-i võrra. Pisut enam kui keskmiselt oodatud(-47 bcf), kuid ei midagi väga erilist.
  • Igatahes minu poolt suur tänu nextphase'ile, et ta raatsis seda foorumit paari vihjega vürtsitada. Nagu näha, õnnestus mõlema uudiskillu (HOS, DNA) põhjal raha teenida isegi peale postituse saatmist.
  • Paljukirutud tehniline analüüs on  nagu on, aga kui see ei ole ülespoole läbimurre, siis mis see on?

    Nasdaqi aastane graafik:

     

  • Natuke Yahoo-stiilis boardi ka.

    Hearing CVDT is a buy here , might be weeks, for a FRPT style run to double digits

  • Väga hea.
    Teemamänge tuahaks ka tulevikus siin näha. Tähtis ei ole mitte mängida konkreetse uudisepeale liikuja peale, aga temaga samal turul tegutsevate firmade tundmisega. Ajavõit, või kuidas?
  • stocker
    Re: Börsipäev 11. jaanuar 11/01/07 18:51
    Segane jutt sai. Sorry
  • aga mina ütlen, et peale pidu tuleb pill...............
    saksas super majandusaasta, aga tulevik tume
    usas, pehme maandumine
    eestis ???? pidu ei saa lõpmatuna kesta, ja vaatame neid, kes eestis kevad-suvel peale 10% langust nutsid......
  • Niederhofferilt täna: "I always get a kick from the key level boys who say "1398 is the key level." They do not tell you whether it's bullish or bearish, when you should act on it, or which index they're talking about. But if five days later the index or the futures is well above 1398, why then they say "we were on record with that 1398 was the key level to buy." If 5 days later it's 1350 then they tell you that the big boys got you again."
  • Niederhofferilt kuradi hea point.

    Muide, sympathyplayde leidmine ei olegi nii raske, märksa keerulisem on ennustada KUI PALJU nad liiguvad ja positsioonist kramplikult kinni hoida.
  • Street, kuidas sa CVDT kukkumise ka üle elasid?:)
  • jyriado, to 4.82 peaks olema müügihind. Sel päeval sel ajal see hind täiesti olemas. Kukkuma hakkas paar tundi hiljem.
  • 3 tunniga lendas tipust (5.13) põhjapeale (1.42). Igal juhul Streetil hea ajastus, kui ta mainis oma ostu ja müügihinda.

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