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Börsipäev 18. jaanuar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Baltic Morning News

     

    Tallink reports preliminary Q1. In Q1/06-07, the total revenues of Estonian shipping company Tallink amounted to EEK 2.98b, rising ca 3x yoy. Net profit came in at EEK 115m, corresponding to a margin of 3.86%. The results were positively affected by number of acquisitions and reorganization of fleet. Full report is due next week. Also, during yesterday's AGM, Tallink confirmed that they will not pay dividends for 2005/06.

    Starman launches VOD. Estonian cableTV operator Starman is introducing video-on-demand service, being the first in Estonia. At first, Starman will serve 500 customers in Tallinn region. We believe Elion, the fully owned subsidiary of Eesti Telekom (Buy), will soon follow. Given the low number of customers and moderate price of the new service, it will not generate much revenue in the beginning. However, in the longer term, we see it as an interesting addition to overall sales.

    Baltics on top of EU inflation. Eurostat published a review of Euro area annual inflation. The average inflation in Euro area was 1.9% in December 2006, unchanged compared to November. Not a surprise, Baltics topped in the list. The highest December inflation was in Latvia, equal to 6.8% yoy. Estonia posted the second highest inflation at 5.1%. Also Lithuania's December inflation of 4.5% can be taken as quite high. The 12-month average inflation was 4.4% in Estonia, 6.6% in Latvia, and 3.8% in Lithuania. To join the euro, Baltics should be aiming for inflation rate around 3%

    Lithuania's current account deficit up 50% in a month. According to Lithuanian Central Bank, the current account deficit in November stood at LTL 1.17b, up LTL 389m or by almost 50%. According to preliminary estimates, CAD from January to November 2006 was LTL 8.55b, up from 4.7b y-o-y. Not a surprise either, the question is how far can it go.  

    Highest concentration of non-driving people. According to the results of Eurobarometer survey, more than 59% of Latvians and 50% of Lithuanians do not have a driver's license. The average ratio for new EU member states is 47%, while it is 25% in the old EU15. Luxembourg and Sweden are on the top, as only 16% of the people cannot drive.
     

  • Banc of America

    downgrades Media conglomerate sector to Market Weight from Overweight. Firm cites valuationand thinks that with less conviction about the direction of the economy, a period of slower growthwould be a drag. CBS and Disney (DIS), rated Neutral, would be most impacted by a more severeslowdown than expected.

    - Top pick remains News Corp (NWS.A). Time Warner (TWX) and VIA remain rated Buy; raisesTarget on MGM Mirage (MGM) to $75 from $60. Firm notes a higher comparable trading multiple,stronger run-rate Las Vegas cash flows, higher condo sales prices at Project City Center, better-than-expected Macau EBITDA, benefits from recently JVs, and incremental value of excess/developable land. Rating is Buy.

    Credit Suisse

    - downgrades Symantec (SYMC) to Neutral from Outperform, due to the Q3 preannouncement andlowers numbers in response. Target lowered to $18.50 from $23.50;

    - upgrades Check Point Software (CHKP) to Outperform from Neutral. The firm believes CHKP’srecent Protect Data and NFR Security acquisitions provide the company with an improved productset to better grow outside of the firewall/VPN market. Target raised to $27 from $22.50.

    Goldman Sachs

    - upgrades Procter & Gamble (PG) to Buy from Neutral. Positive on company’s go-to-market plans,12-month price target raised to $71 from $68;

    - upgrades Household/Personal Care sector to Attractive from Neutral. The move is made in conjunctionwith the aforementioned upgrade of PG (see 3:36 comment). Firm cites decline in oilprices and is more confident in the outlook for earnings. Estimates increased for Colgate (CL), PGand Kimberly-Clark (KMB). CL is top pick.

    JPMorgan

    - downgrades Forest Labs (FRX) to Neutral from Overweight.

    UBS

    - upgrades Darden Restaurants (DRI) to Buy from Neutral and Price target raised to $47 from$45;- reiterates Coca-Cola (KO) with Buy. Firm believes strong growth in emerging markets and improvingtrends in Europe will offset weakness in the US and Japan. Target raised to $57 from$53;

    - reiterates Research In Motion (RIMM) with Buy, believes concerns over a Pearl price cut at TMobileare overdone. Firm sees the price cuts as being driven by the carrier and not RIMM, whichthe firm views positively as T-Mobile likely considers Pearl a key sub and ARPU driver. Target is$170.

  • Tänase hommiku suurim hoiataja on ilmselt Caci International (CAI). Tegemist on peamiselt erinevatele jõustruktuuridele IT-teenuseid pakkuva ettevõttega, mis pakub tööd üle 10000 inimesele. 2006. aasta käive pea $2 miljardit dollarit.

    CAI tõi ühe põhjusena välja selle, et seoses suurenenud sõjakulutustega Iraagis ei kavatse Kongress tõsta non-Homeland Security struktuuride eelarveid 2007. aastal. See tähendab ka seda, et uusi projekte ei alustata. See omakorda on kaasa toonud tihedama konkurentsi veel järgi jäänud diilidele ning saadud lepinguid püütakse konkurentide poolt tihti tühistada. Tulud viibivad või ei tule üldse.

    Lisaks sellele tunduvad ettevõtet kummitavat kõrged tööjõukulud. Juhtkonna hinnangul on nad kaotanud mitu diili just sellel põhjusel (hind vs. kulu).

    Ilmselgelt on tegemist kogu sektorit puudutavate probleemidega. Raske on uskuda, et konkurendid neist pääseksid.

    CAI kaupleb täna hommikul 15% alla. Kas siin on kusagil treid? Miks?
  • CAI uudisega võiks pihta saada SAIC Inc (SAI). See hiljuti IPO teinud firma kaupleb praegu turul oluliselt kõrgemate suhtarvudega kui CAI, seega võiks CAI uudis päris kõvasti praegust optimismi jahutada.
  • CAI uudise peale võiks miinuses alustada ka MANT.
  • Kas kaua oodatud langus käes!
    Läksin QID ga pikaks ja QLD ga lühikeseks!
  • Ja nafta varud jätkuvalt suurelt kasvamas:

    The E.I.A. reports that crude oil inventories had a build of 6.768 mln barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a build of 100K barrels); gasoline inventories had a build of 3.491 mln barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a build of 2.225 mln); distillate inventories had a build of 910K barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a build of 1.35 mln).
  • Funil jälle õigus! Hakkab nagu traditsiooniks juba saama. Miks teised ei paku?

    Sra International (SRX) oleks olnud esimene mõte minugi peas. Tegemist on CAI-ga üpris sarnase tegijaga, mille turuväärtus on ka umbes samas suurusjärgus. Kahjuks või õnneks alandas JP Morgan täna hommikul selle aktsia reitingut. Põhjuseks muidugi CAI hoiatus ning selle implikatsioonid. Aktsia avanes NYSE-l 7-8% alla ning seda oli juba ilmselgelt piisavalt.

    Järgmine tõepolest Mantech (MANT). Sarnane tegija ning ilmselgeks eeliseks see, et kaupleb NASDAQ-l.Avanes pool dollarit allpool sulgemishinda, kuid liikus sujuvalt edasi. Hoogu andis kindlasti juurde SRX-i suur gap alla kell 9:42 ET. Kui vaatate graafikut, siis just tol hetkel algaski MANT-i suurem müük.

    SAIC (SAI) oli hea valik selles osas, et sarnane tegija ning suure turuväärtusega. Siiski on tegemist vastse IPO-ga ning minu mäletamist mööda need ei liigu selliste asjadel peale eriti hästi. Ja ei liikunudki.

    Sektoris on veel hulk pisemaid (sub-$500 mln) tegijaid, kuid need reeglina ei ole eriti head downside mängud.

    Loodetavasti pakkus huvi.
  • Päris huvitav MANTi defend Freidmanilt. Põhimõtteliselt tunduks mulle, et võiks natuke MANTi osta üleöö hoidmiseks ..risky, kuid võiks homme põrgata kui turgu päris ära ei killita.

    MANT ManTech: Mkt has mistakenly lumped co together with the other names in the govt IT services sector - FBR (33.91 -3.14)
    FBR is reiterating their Outperform rating on MANT following CAI's conference call this morning. They note that MANT has traded down in tandem with the rest of the sector as a result of CAI lowering its guidance for the remainder of FY07. Based on MANT's competitive position within the sector, they believe that the market has mistakenly lumped MANT together with the other names in the government IT services sector that have significant exposure to the federal civilian agencies. Firm says MANT generates about 90% to 95% of its work with the DoD and intelligence community to include both IT spending as well as direct support to troops on the ground. Therefore, firm says the co has very little exposure to the federal civilian agencies that are currently operating under a continuing resolution
  • Tundub, et MANTi mõte imes/ imeb (buy for pop) ..kuigi enne avanemist oleks arvanud, et ostuhuvi tekib.

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