Börsipäev 22. jaanuar
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Baltic Morning News
Kia Auto: new board, new plans. Tallinna Kaubamaja has appointed new supervisory board for Kia Auto AS, which was acquired in December 2006. The new board made a strategic decision to built new car selling and service stations in Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius. At the same time, no changes were made in the current management board. In 2006, Kia Auto AS sold 1,248 cars, down by 16% yoy, and generated revenues of EEK 335m (EUR 21.4m), down by 10% yoy. The result must be said disappointing as other Estonian car dealers have reported record-high sales in 2006. The challenge for Kaubamaja is to turn this company around, i.e. to pick up sales and bring the margins up to the level comparable with peers.
Estonia's Q4 inflation 4.5%. According to Estonian Statistical Office, the Q4 inflation came in at 4.5% y-o-y in Q4. Compared to Q3/06, consumer prices increased 0.5%. The growth in consumer prices in Q4/06 compared to a year ago was mainly influenced by the increase in the prices of housing (+14.4% y-o-y), as well as by the increase in the expenditures on food and non-alcoholic beverages (+6.8%).
Competition getting tougher? TDC, the former owner of Latvian and Lithuanian mobile operator Bite, has decided to sell its 100% holding in Bite to the Central and Eastern European private equity fund Mid Europa Partners for a cash consideration of EUR 0.45b. Although there is little information about Bite's future plans under the new owner, it is possible that Bite will now aim Estonian market as well. If this happens, EMT, the fully owned subsidiary of Eesti Telekom (Buy), could be one of the companies giving up some of its market share.
Kalev signs milk supply contract. Kalev Paide Dairy, a subsidiary of Estonia's largest dairy company Kalev, concluded long-term contracts with milk producers. According to Tarmo Maasikamäe, CFO of Kalev, with these contracts, the cooperation between the dairy and milk producers is not based on the highest price, but rather a sustainable partnership. The raw milk price will be formed on the basis of the average European milk powder, skimmed milk powder and butter. The company plans to procure 160 tons of crude milk a day in first half 2007.
EU oldest cars driving in Lithuania. According to BBN, Lithuania tops the list of EU member states by the number of people driving cars older than 5 years. In Lithuania, only 4% of the population buy brand new cars. This is followed by Latvia, where the figure is 11%. Most new cars are sold in Spain (75%), Greece (75%) and Luxembourg (74%). The main reason for the disparity obviously lies in earnings levels. On the other hand, Baltics have the EU highest concentration of non-driving people (59% of Latvians and 50% of Lithuanians do not have a driving licence, while the same figure for the old EU 15 is only 25%).
Two thirds of Estonians use internet. According to Estonian Statistical Office, 62% of Estonians aged 16-74 use computers and 61% use the Internet. The computer and the Internet were mostly used at home, and depending on the age and educational level, also at work or educational institution. 56% of Estonian population used the Internet at least once a week. According to Eurostat data, the corresponding figure for EU stands at 47%, i.e. another area where Estonia is above the EU average on positive side.
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Banc of America
- Sun Microsystems (SUNW) mentioned positively,
- Abbott Labs (ABT) target increased from $54 > $58, firm is positive on the sale of the corelaboratory diagnostics business to GE;
Bear Stearns
initiating coverage of Imclone (IMCL) with peer perform, mentioning firm’s main focus should beon the potential competition to Erbitux from Amgen’s Vectibix;
Initiating coverage of Baidu.com (BIDU) with estimated year end value $125;
- upgrading European telecoms from underweight > market weight, firm’s top picks are DT, TelecomItalia (TI), Telekom Austria (TKA), TELN, and Cosmote (COSMO.GA),
Citigroup
- adding Loews Corp (LTR), Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS), Allergan Inc. (AGN) to RecommendedList;
- Firm’s strategist also recommends purchase of Intel (INTC), Cisco Systems (CSCO) and OccidentalPetroleum Corp (OXY) on recent weakness
Cowen & Co.
- raising forecast for 2007 ICD market growth. The firm sees 5.7% growth y/y vs. 3.6% previously
Deutsche Bank
- downgrading Altria (MO) from buy > hold and increasing Target from $93 > $95, sees MO company ex-Kraft valued on par with tobacco peers; Initiating coverage of UST Inc. (UST) with holdand Target $53
Goldman Sachs
- reinstating 3M (MMM) with neutral rating and 12-month Target of $86;
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) added to Americas Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs, maintainesbuy rating
JPMorgan
- positive on global tobacco sector, positive on global tobacco sector firm cites consolidation andimproved trading trends in the sector; global top picks are Japan Tobacco (2914.JP) and Altria(MO)
Prudential
- raising Procter & Gamble (PG) target from $73 to $78,
- raising Colgate-Palmolive (CL) target from $71 to $79,
- upgrading Kimberly Clark (KMB) from Underweight to Overweight,
- upgrading Clorox (CLX) from Neutral to Overweight, outlooks for stocks look increasingly solid.
UBS
- upgrading Abbott Labs (ABT) from reduce > neutral and raising Target from $43 > $53, citinglab diagnostics divestiture as rationale;
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Tähtsamad tulemused sel nädalal:
Esmaspäev, Jan. 22 5 p.m. AXP American Express 5:30 p.m. TXN Texas Instruments Teisipäev, Jan. 23 8 a.m. WB Wachovia 8:30 a.m. EMC EMC 8:30 a.m. COH Coach 8:30 a.m. JNJ Johnson & Johnson 8:30 a.m. TLAB Tellabs 9 a.m. DD DuPont 9:30 a.m. BAC Bank of America 9:30 a.m. UTX United Technologies 10 a.m. EAT Brinker International 4:30 p.m. SUNW Sun Microsystems 5 p.m. AMD Advanced Micro Devices 5 p.m. YHOO Yahoo! 5:30 p.m. QLGC QLogic Kolmapäev, Jan. 24 8:30 a.m. GLW Corning 9 a.m. ABT Abbott Labs 11 a.m. COP ConocoPhillips 11:30 a.m. MCD McDonald's 4:30 p.m. NFLX Netflix 4:30 p.m. NVLS Novellus 4:45 p.m. QCOM Qualcomm 5 p.m. EBAY eBay 5 p.m. SYMC Symantec Neljapäev, Jan. 25 8 a.m. NOK Nokia 8:30 a.m. STJ St. Jude Medical 9 a.m. FCS Fairchild Semiconductor 10 a.m. T AT&T 10 a.m. DOW Dow Chemical 10 a.m. DJ Dow Jones 10 a.m. BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb 11 a.m. NDE IndyMac 11 a.m. BZH Beazer Homes 11:30 a.m. CY Cypress Semiconductor 3 p.m. LMT Lockheed Martin 5 p.m. AMGN Amgen 5:30 p.m. WFR MEMC Electronic Materials 5:30 p.m. MSFT Microsoft Reede, Jan. 26 10 a.m. HAL Halliburton 11 a.m. CAT Caterpillar -
Goldman Sachs toob välja 6 põhjust, miks energiaettevõtetes pikk olla. Mõnda aega on analüütikud saanud energiaettevõtete osas olla suhteliselt karuse nägemusega ning fondid on surunud alla naftahinda. Naftasektorile teenuseid pakkuva sektori esindajana tõi positiivseid noote eelmise nädala lõpus Schlumberger (SLB), mis on pannud paljusid analüütikuid oma tabeleid muutma ja mõtteid positiivsuse poole suunama.
Goldman Sachs believes there are six reasons to overweight Energy stocks: 1) global oil demand will exceed supply for the next two years, 2) geopolitical risk to supply, 3) fastest dividend growth in the S&P 500 through 2009, 4) potential mutual fund flows into Energy stocks to close underweight positions, 5) attractive valuation, and 6) sector offers best upside to firm's target prices. Firm also thinks that the bear case centers on what they believe are more transitory issues.
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Shark pakub välja 'sell the news' stsenaariumi võimalikkust, millest on ka varem juttu olnud. GE, AAPL, INTC on kõik head näited. Samuti lähevad ta mõtted hästi kokku tänahommikuse Goldman Sachsi punktidega energia sektori kohta, öeldes, et paljud energia ettevõtted on oma tulemustega tulemas ning PE baasil on see grupp üks odavamaid, mistõttu 'tehnoloogias pettunud' raha võib aja jooksul tagasi energiasse voolata.
Beware 'Sell the News' Effect
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/22/2007 8:48 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"'Tis education forms the common mind,/ Just as the twig is bent, the tree's inclined."
-- Alexander Pope
We have a big week of earnings coming up, which is going to tell us quite a bit about where the market is headed in the near term. So far we have had pretty good reports but the inclination of market players has been to sell the news. INTC, AAPL, IBM and GE all had good reports that were above expectations but suffered from selling pressure.
The big question is whether this is a theme that it likely to persist as earnings season continues, or just a bout of skittishness that is likely to fade if reports continue to be solid.
The inclination of market players is not always a complicated thing. They tend to keep repeating behavior that works repeatedly, making it more of a reflexive action than anything that is carefully considered. If buying stocks late in the day works well, they do that. If selling on earnings news has been the inclination, they will keep doing that no matter what.
Even if the sell the news reaction does not expand as we see more reports, the failure to put more cash to work on earnings raises the concern that market participants are concerned about valuation and not feeling a great inclination to "chase" stocks. By most every technical measure we are extended and some sort of action to digest the outsized gains we have incurred since July is probable.
Interestingly the pullback in oil and commodities we have seen since the first of the year has not had much of a boost for the market. The idea that lower energy and commodity prices is a boost for consumers and anti-inflationary certainly is logical but the market reaction to that idea has been tepid at best.
It looks like we are seeing some stabilization in oil and mining prices and the market's reaction to that should be interesting, especially if money begins to flow back into the group. Briefly it looked like technology stocks were going to benefit from a flight out of oil and commodities but earnings cooled that idea and now we will have to watch to see if the reverse occurs. One thing that is fairly certain is that energy stocks are likely to post some big earnings numbers, and on a PE basis are a lot cheaper than many other groups.
We have a mildly positive start on the way. PFE reports slightly ahead this morning and given recent strength in pharmaceuticals will be another good measure of the sell the news inclination of the market. Overseas markets are strong, oil is trading up and we have a typically optimistic Monday morning brewing.
Ülespoole avanevad:
SGTL +20% (design win at Samsung for its TV Audio product line), SWFT +9.1% (to be acquired by co's founder), HOKU +6.7% (bounces after 19% drop on Friday), CECO +5.7% (co says the govt has lifted bans on school acquisitions), CEGE +5.2% (positive phase 2 data), CGV +3.9% (recently passes CLEAN Act seen as positive for CGV - Jefferies), CHL +3.6% (to buy large stake in large Pakistani mobile carrier), NGAS +4.6% (extends recent momentum), LYO +4.5%, GUID +3.4% (multiple initiaitons of coverage for this recent IPO), RDY +2.8% (reports Q3), AMGN +2.4% (Bear Stearns raises tgt to $83), SUNW +1.7% (co to work with Intel - WSJ), C +1.1% (CFO to be reassigned)... Under $3: FMDAD +29% (regains Nasdaq listing compliance), DSCO +17% (gets FDA guidance on Surfaxin), XNL +9% (ethanol stock ticking up ahead of state of the union address tomorrow), ASDX +5%.
Allapoole avanevad:
CFHI -9.5% (extends Friday's 25% sell-off when co warned about impairment charges), CENT -8.3% (lowers Q4 guidance), PETS -7% (reports DecQ, misses by $0.02), DSTI -5.1% (profit taking after 16% spike on Friday), UA -3.6% (mentioned negatively in Barron's), USU -2.7% (provides guidance), XMSR -2.2% (Pac Crest downgrade; also judge rules that lawsuit by the record industry against the co can proceed; also SIRI -1.8%), SIFY -2.2% (reports Q3), ALDN -1.7% (reports Q4, provides guidance), LOGI -1.6% (profit taking after recent run), ALU -1.2%, QGEN -1%... Under $3: STSI -34% (unfavorable court rulings in lawsuit against RAI, co says it is mulling asset sales), MOVI -5.6% (co reports Q3 results following delay). -
Apollo Group Inc (APOL) on $7.2 B turukapitalisatsiooniga töötavatele täiskasvanutele haridust pakkuv ettevõte. Aktsia on turu avanedes lennanud läbi $42 vastupanutaseme, mille pealt ka võimalus pikaks minna. Kuigi ees ootab $6.45 laiune gap, seaks esialgse sihi $44-$45 juurde. Lühikeste positsioonise osakaal aktsias on 6%, mille katmine võib samuti tõusule kaasa aidata ning tugevust lisab jaanuari esimeste päevade murdmine 50-päeva EMA peale.
Päevasisene graafik
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Central Garden & Pet (NASDAQ:CENT) andis täna hommikul hoiatuse neljandaks kvartaliks. Tegemist on lemmiklooma-ning aiandustarvete tootjaga, mis on üks suurem omasugune USA-s. Põhjenduseks tõi juhtkond sektoris tegutsevate jaemüüjate liiga hilja peale jäetud aiandustavete ostud (kuivõrd neid üldse praegu on), madalama linnu ning muude pisiloomade tarvete müügi ning oodatust kõrgemad seemnehinnad.
Ilmselt on tegemist kogu sektorit puudutava hoiatusega. Millised ettevõtted võiksid olla mõjutatud? Miks?
PS: Elukutselised võiksid ennast ka seekord tagasi hoida. -
Muruseemnetega tegelevate firmade kohta leiab infot siit: Grass Seeds ;)
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CENT-i peale tuli turu avanedes natuke alla SMG (seemned), aga see ei olnud kindlasti parim ettevõtte, mille peale mängida.
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PETM ehk.
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Spectrum Brands (SPC) liikus ka CENT-i peale. Tegeleb päris mitme valdkonnaga, muu hulgas ka kodu&aiandus ning loomatarbed.
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Monsanto (MON) on samuti aianduse consumer osas SPC ja CENT konkurent. MON puhul on avamisjärgne liikumine seni pakutud variantidest kõige ilusam.
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Lemmik-loomandusega seotust langeb täna ka PETS. Nad avaldasid tulemused, mis jäid pisut oodatule alla, kuid haircut on tugev. See annab minu meelest hea kauplemise võimaluse.
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Gordon Haave offers:
The most common euphemism that I noticed was the naming of every downturn in almost any asset price as a "correction." One of the reasons that I find it notable is that those who call it a correction invariably are implying that the long term trend is still up. Well, if the future price will be higher, then why is having it go down today "correct" in any manner?
A good example of this would be today's bloomberg story about Rogers saying that the downward movement is just a "correction" and that the price will later go up to $100. If the price is going to $100, then any significant downward movement is not a "correction." Rather, it is a "mistake."
I for one think that oil is going to stay down, but that's not the point. The point is that this idea that anyone who is long can at the same time justify or excuse a downward price movement as being an ok event will still proclaim a long term rise in price. -
Aitäh vastuste eest!
Jah, üks esimesi pähe karanud mänge on PetSmart (PETM). Tegemist on ühe suurima lemmikloomatarvikutele keskendunud jaemüüjaga. Ka on PETM CENT-i üks suuremaid kliente. Liikumine on siiani olnud üllatavalt pisike. Kõhutunne oleks oodanud vähemalt 1 dollari suurust allaliikumist. Siiski mulle tundub, et lähipäevad saavad investorite jaoks olema raskepoolsed.
Scotts Miracle (SMG) on Funil päris huvitav leid. Tegemist siis peamiselt muruseemne ning hoolduse vallas tegutseva ettevõttega, mis on viimase aasta jooksul tunginud ka CENT-i turule hakates müüma linnutoitu. Viimane moodustab 15% CENT-i käibest ning ilmselt veelgi suurema osa kasumist.
Ei ole liikunud. Ilmselt ei liigu ka.
Spectrum (SPC) - not enough exposure.
Monsanto (MON) - uurige enne, mille see tegeleb. Ja siis vaadake turuväärtust.
PetMed Express (PETM) on loomaapteek. -
PetMed Express (PETS)
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Kuid paistab, et teemamängijaid on siinmail parasjagu. On kellelt õppida! :)
Peaasi, et raud ei jahtuks. -
(RTTNews) - Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) reported net income for the fourth quarter of $668 million or $0.45 per share, compared to $655 million or $0.41 per share for the year-ago quarter.
Homme tuleb roheline päev.
Hetkel TXN 2,5% plussis.
