Börsipäev 9. veebruar
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Baltic Morning News
Huge correction in Tallinn. Olympic Casino was down for the second day yesterday, giving up 6.3% of its value. But this time, it took the whole market with them and at some point it seemed like retail investors were indiscriminately selling everything they could. Tallinn stock exchange index OMXT closed down 5.7%, as all shares ended in red. The biggest losers were Saku (-9.4%), Tallinn Department Store (-8.5%), PTA (-8.4%), Tallink (-7.2%), Baltika (-6.6%), Eesti Ehitus (-6.0%), Estonian Telecom (-4.6%), etc… Everyone knew that the correction had to come, it is just the timing that always takes the market with a surprise. Due to bad sentiment and the fact that valuation is still high (Tallinn’s average 2007 PE is 19x), we suggest keeping some distance at the moment.
TEO (Acc) sales in-line, EBITDA below. Total Q4 sales increased 0.6% y-on-y to LTL 188.2m, slightly above our forecast of LTL 186.1m. The Q4 EBITDA came in at LTL 78.5m, corresponding to a margin of 41.7% - this was significantly below our EBITDA forecast of LTL 85.0m, corresponding to a margin of 45.7%. Although long term margin erosion was expected, the pace of it in Q4 was a bit surprising. The Q4 Pre-tax profit was LTL 37.6m, which was 4.3% below our forecast of LTL 39.3m. We keep Accumulate.
Eesti Ehitus preliminary Q4. The Q4 sales came in at EEK 776m, equal to a y-on-y growth of 88.6%. In previous quarters, the y-on-y growth has been below 60%. The Q4 gross profit was EEK 120m, corresponding to a margin of 15.5% (vs. 15.3% in Q4/05). The Q4 net profit was EEK 79m, corresponding to a margin of 10.1% (vs. 11.4% in Q4/05). The announced dividend was EEK 3 per share (payout ratio 23.9%), corresponding to a yield of 1.5%. The full report is due on February 16th.
Tallinn Water (Neutral) likely to pay out EUR 0.64 per share. In an interview to Bloomberg, the CEO of Tallinn Water, Roch Cheroux, said the dividend payout rate this year may drop to about 80% of earnings. That implies a dividend of around 64 cents per share, corresponding to a yield of 3.4%. Our dividend forecast is EUR 0.65 per share (payout ratio 82%), corresponding to a yield of 3.5%. In addition, Mr Cheroux said that acquisitions were possible, but none had been planned. If the company would move into other Estonian municipalities, it would run water services and not take over and maintain assets.
Snaige plans to sell more in Ukraine. The Lithuanian fridge maker Snaige plans to increase its exports to Ukraine about 10% this year, BBN reported. According to Mindaugas Sestokas, CEO, sales in January grew more than 50% y-o-y. Currently Snaige exports about 25% of its production to Ukraine and believes the market still holds a good potential as the trade barriers are gradually disappearing. The target is to sell 154,000 fridges in Ukraine this year, equal to a growth of 10%.
Latvia’s January inflation 7.1%. According to Latvian Statistical Office, consumer prices grew 7.1% y-o-y in January. Similarly to Estonia, the highest inflation was in housing expenditures (+13.4%), while communication expenditures went down most (-5.5%). Yesterday Estonia also posted relatively high January inflation at 5.1%.
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Loen Äripäevast, et on uued majanduselu arvamusliidrid: Allan223, Indrek7, CharlieF, Ruuki ja Mersu36. Peaks rohkem nende arvamusi jälgima :-)
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BofA downgrades US Steel (X 87.63) to Neutral from Buy and maintains a $90 tgt, as they believe risk-reward is now more balanced as positive pricing momentum is offset by continued high inventories and potential import threats
Marriott (MAR 51.21) cut from Citigroup's Recommended List
Deutsche Bank upgrades Ford (F 8.66) to Buy from Hold and raises their tgt to $11 from $8, as unions appear to be increasingly open to unconventional solutions for competitive challenges such as healthcare
Deutsche Bank upgrades General Motors (GM 33.80) to Buy from Hold and raises their tgt to $45 from $30, as unions appear to be increasingly open to unconventional solutions for competitive challenges such as healthcare
J.P Morgan upgrades Semiconductor stocks to Bullish from Cautious
Goldman upgrades the U.S Auto stocks to Neutral from Cautious
Citigroup upgrades BCI Inc (BCE 25.51) to Buy from Hold
Goldman initiates Deere (DE) and adds it to their Conviction Buy list with a $133 tgt
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Don't Expect Winning Bulls to Slow Down
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/9/2007 8:53 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"Most people give up just when they're about to achieve success. They quit on the one-yard line. They give up at the last minute of the game, one foot from a winning touchdown."
-- Ross Perot
By most any measure the bulls have been quite successful over the last six months or so. When we have had a run like this, our natural inclination is to look for some sort of pullback. We expect those who have succeeded to take an occasional break and enjoy their good fortune for a while.
But the nature of winners is that they don't give up. They just keep on pushing and striving when others would be looking to take a break and relax. And so it goes with this market. The bulls have had a great run, but that is just making them hungry for more. It is why strong markets tend to stay strong, and it is why it's so dangerous to over-anticipate pullbacks and corrections.
Although the bulls are staying strong, they have been slowing a bit. They certainly aren't letting the bears do anything, but they are showing some minor signs of fatigue, such as the inability of some of the big-caps to rally on good earnings. But when you look at the charts of the indices, it's pretty clear that the flaws have been minor and that there is nothing to suggest that the bulls are ready to give it a rest.
Our job here isn't to try to predict the point when things will turn but to respect what is happening right now and try to find a way to profit from it. There are some long-side trades to be had, but they are somewhat limited and require shorter time frame. If you want to make money in this market right now, that is what you need to do. If you worry too much about catching a turn here, you won't be able to do a thing. The bulls are not giving up easily, so we might as well try to profit from them.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
MA +3.4%, TRT +23%, APLX +23% (also First Albany upgrade), ZONS +21%, SFLY +16%, LPSN +9.2% (also First Albany upgrade), JACO +7.3%, CHTR +11% (guidance only), DBTK +7.7%, AXCA +6%, OTEX +5.9%, WOLF +5% (guidance only), AIXD +4.4%, TQNT +4% (also Needham upgrade), BRCM +4% (also Needham raises tgt to $40)... Other News: CEGE +12% (profiled in BWeek Inside Wall St section), CPSL +8%, LI +8% (to be acquired), ZVUE +5.4% (co expects to be cash flow positive by year end), HANS +4.6% (announces on-premise distribution deal with BUD), F +4.2% (Deutsche upgrade), CHINA +4% (profiled in BWeek Inside Wall St section), MNTA +3.3% (SNY loses court case regarding generic Lovenox, SNY's top-selling drug), GM +2.5% (Deutsche upgrade), SAP +1.8%.
Allapoole avanevad:
SIMG -19% (also multiple downgrades), ENER -15% (also downgrades from Cowen and CIBC), OMTR -11%, CWTR -7% (guidance only), ZQK -7% (guidance only), GTW -7%, ASEI -6%, BMC -5.1%, UNTD -4.3%, SGMO -3.9%, DIVX -3.2%, ALU -3%, CW -2.9%, NAPS -2.2%... Other News: ACHN -50% (co ends development of a hep C treatment), NWACQ.PK -5.3% (US Air CEO says co has no plans to pursue Northwest at this time - AP), KOSN -4.3% (prices offering), SHFL -2.9% (ends gaming development pact with Elixir Group), CHIC -2.6%, JOYG -2.2% (Goldman initiates at Sell), SNY -1.9% (loses lawsuit re Lovenox), X -1.1% (downgrades from BofA and CIBC). -
MA paneb ikka täiega hullu
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That's what happens when expectations are getting ahead of reality.
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Föderaalreservi Fisher on olnud seni üks kriitlisemaid intressimäära poliitika ja usa majanduse osas. Ja pettuda ei tule ka seekord:
FISHER SAYS RAPID OVERSEAS GROWTH SAPS U.S. ABILITY TO SOURCE CHEAP INPUTS, LABOR
Fed's Fisher says 3% average growth pace 'reasonable' for 2007
FISHER SAYS FED HAS SOME "DISINFLATIONARY TAILWINDS" BEHIND IT
Fisher says Fed should be able to accommodate growth rate to bring inflation below 2 pct
Fed's Fisher says rents, labor costs add to inflation pressures
Fisher says Q4 growth likely to be revised down, still near 3%; sees 2007 growth likely to average 3%
Fisher says will rest easier when core inflation "well below 2 pct" on sustained basis
Fed's Fisher says he 'wouldn't rule out' further rate increases -
Üle pika aja tundub dip-buyeritel olevat raskusi päeva lõpus enda kehtestamisega...
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Ohoo, Äripäev polegi veel intervjuud küsinud...
Kirjutas, et kl 10.33 tuli esimene "ärev" kommentaar minu poolt:) Esiteks see polnud ärev, sest olin sinna isegi väikse irve sisse pununud. Sest selleks hetkeks olin juba rahas...
