Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) ja etanoon yldiselt
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Mis rahva arvamus on?
Tundub, et Bush andis tsipa rohelist tuld hiljuti sellele alale.
Pacific avas kuu aega tagasi uue tehase, ja yks on veel ehitamisel. -
Vaatasin paar kuud tagasi, mulle tundus tookord verasun huvitavam. Erinevatel põhjustel ma aga midagi ei ostnud.
ADM www.admworld.com
ANDE www.andersonsinc.com
VSE www.verasun.com
PEIX www.pacificethanol.net -
ah savi mis nad seal rabelevad .kui uus ehitamisel siis kulud ka suured ja kasumid madalad ja tööline see ei saa ssugi
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Etanool üldiselt?
Etanool ühendriikides on nali mis suudab püsida ainult tänu maisi subsideerimisele. Selle tootmiseks kulub rohkem energiat kui ta asendada suudab. -
pole see midagi nali, praegu on maailmas biokütuse buum, mis kahjuks tähendab seda, et tegelikud mõjud tulevad nähtavale hoopis mujal. toiduainetööstuses näiteks. kui saagi (vilja, soja) eest saab paremat raha seda kütuse valmistamiseks müües seda ka tehakse.
loomakasvatuse kuludest on sööt 2/3, sööt jälle koosneb just neist samadest asjadest millest biokütust saab teha st. liha, piima, jahu,õlu jms. tootjad peavad võistlema kütuse tootjatega ja seda on võimatu teha lõpptoodangu hindu tõstmata, kuidas tarbijad kallima toidu vastu võttavad saab näha.
teistpidi, kuna biokütuse toorained juba on kiiresti kallinenud sest pakkumine pole vajadusele järele jõudnud pole ka hetkel veidi rahunenud naftahindade taustal biokütuse tegijatel megakasumeid enam lihtne teenida (tooraine hinnad järsku üles & konkureeriva toote hind natuke alla).
Reuters report: SQUEEZE
Biofuels costs will likely fall and demand and prices rise in Europe and the U.S. as better infrastructure and economies of scale kick in over the next two to three years, analysts say.
U.S. Democrats last week proposed a $15 billion energy plan, including boosting the country's network of ethanol service stations, for example.
But biofuels future also depends on oil prices, and analysts cannot guarantee crude oil will stay above the $60-$65 where it is trading now and undercutting biofuels -- excluding subsidies -- outside Brazil, according to the IEA.
Another factor is input cost: but sugar, corn, grain and palm oil prices are all seen holding or rising in the near term.
A new generation of biofuels made from waste like straw and wood chips would ease input shortages, but is not expected to be commercially available before 2009 and possibly much later. -
Biokytyste toetamise taga on nn. spillover efekt, teravilja ja suhkrupeedi pohisest etanoolist suuremat tahtusust omab jargmise polvkonna biokytuste tehnoloogia areng, mille abil oleks voimalik toota tselluloosipohist etanooli. Hiljutise US Farm Billi ettepaneku kohaselt nahakse ette massiivsed summad biokytuste alase R&D rahastamiseks. Hiljuti otsustas US Department of Energy ka maksta toetust 385 miljonit USD kuuele bioenergia projektile (Abengoa Bioenergy Biomass, ALICO Inc, BlueFire Ethanol, Inc, Broin Companies, Iogen Biorefinery Partners, LLC, Range Fuels) eesmargiga tootada valja lahendused uue polvkonna biokytuse tootmiseks.
Teine suurt moju omav tegur biokytuste turul USAs on kaubandustingimused. Kuna USA tahab lahitulevikus julgeolekupoliitilistel pohjustel mitmekordistada oma biokytuste osakaalu energy mix'is ja ilmselt sisemise tootmisega seda teha on raske, siis on paevakorras Brasiilia etanooli suhtes rakendatava impordi tollimaara 54 senti barreli koha, kaotamine voi alandamine. See ei meeldi muidugi US biokytusetootjatele. Brasiilia tundub, et votab yldse yle kogu turu varem voi hiljem, juba kavandamisel etanooli torujuhe Jaapanisse.
Brazil, however, is preparing to forge ahead in the export market. Brazil has attracted $12.2 billion to build
77 new ethanol plants over the next five years. Another $2.4 billion will be invested to upgrade existing
ones. By 2012, Brazil will have 412 ethanol refineries producing an annual output of 9.5 billion gallons of
ethanol, according to the Economist weekly magazine. Brazilian state-run oil firm Petrobras has entered
into an agreement with the Japanese to explore the feasibility of a pipeline that would help transport
Brazilian ethanol to Japan via a port on the Pacific. -
viimase uudise seisukohalt olulised tickerid siis BFRE.PK (BlueFire) ja ALCO (Alico).
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Natuke lugemist etanooli-teemal WSJ-st:
U.S., Brazil Weigh Ethanol Pact
Talks Around Bush Visit
Come as New Investors
Rival Old Sugar FamiliesBy ANTONIO REGALADO
March 7, 2007; Page A2SÃO PAULO, Brazil -- President Bush is scheduled to arrive in Brazil tomorrow to discuss a possible alliance on ethanol fuel, but investors aren't waiting for a pact: They are already pouring money into new ethanol mills and sugar-cane fields here to meet growing domestic demand for the biofuel and in the hopes that exports will boom, too.
The U.S. market remains largely off-limits to Brazil because of tariffs and quotas that protect the U.S. ethanol industry, which is based on corn rather than sugar. But Japan and other energy-poor nations in Europe are already looking to Latin America's largest country for ethanol.
A spate of deals is bringing new names and big money to what has traditionally been a family-run industry in Brazil, sparking a wave of acquisitions and new projects. For instance, a company controlled by George Soros and U.S. hedge fund HBK Investments recently acquired a sugar-cane mill and is planning to invest more than $700 million on new capacity to produce ethanol.
Other actors include agricultural-trading firms such as Cargill Inc., which acquired a mill last summer. And Brazil's state-owned oil titanPetroleo Brasileiro, or Petrobras, is negotiating with Japan'sMitsui & Co. to buy and construct mills as part of a long-term agreement to supply Japan with ethanol. Japan's government is planning to require a mix of as much as 10% ethanol in gasoline.
As the price of oil has risen in recent years, along with fears about how fast existing oil supplies can grow, ethanol has gained more attention as a potentially cheaper option, and as a renewable fuel that won't ever run out. President Bush wants to sharply increase U.S. production. Ethanol can be added to gasoline to help extend supplies, or used in so-called flex-fuel cars that run on either fuel.
While the U.S. produces slightly more ethanol than Brazil, the South American nation is seen as the world's leader. Sugar-cane ethanol, which is basically fermented sugar that gets distilled into alcohol, is cheaper than ethanol made from corn, and Brazilian government policies mean ethanol now makes up more than 40% of fuel used in automobiles here.
Brazil is proof that "the economics of a renewable fuel is very competitive," said Neil Koehler, chief executive officer ofPacific Ethanol, a U.S.-based corn-ethanol producer. Pacific is focused on supplying the U.S. market, but because Brazilian ethanol is less expensive, Mr. Koehler says it is likely the country will be first to conquer new markets such as Japan, which don't make their own ethanol and don't have import tariffs.
After weathering an ethanol crisis in the late 1990s, Brazil's market started to heat up with the introduction of flex-fuel cars in 2003. Last month, more than 80% of new cars sold in Brazil were flex-fuel models, and companies includingGeneral Motors Corp. have stopped building gas-only autos here.
Interest in the export market began to grow rapidly last year, as Mr. Bush began putting political weight behind ethanol. "There are a huge number of investors, funds, traders, oil companies, commodities companies, all considering entering the market," said José Luiz Olivério, senior technology and development vice president at Dedini SA, a major Brazilian supplier of crushers and distillers used in making ethanol from sugar cane.
Officials from both countries say the contemplated U.S.-Brazil deal on biofuel is likely to include the creation of a body to set technical standards and support for sugar-cane production elsewhere in Latin America. Such steps are needed to create a robust international market for ethanol, which isn't yet traded easily like soy or other commodities.
The emergence of a global trade in ethanol is changing a Brazilian industry dominated by family-run operations focused on sugar, not on ethanol. Alfred Szwarc, an executive with Unica, the São Paulo state sugar-cane association, says momentum is building for companies that can acquire and professionalize such operations.
According to Dedini, Brazil has 357 sugar mills in operation, 43 under construction and a further 244 in the planning stages. While the majority of actual investments are from established families, foreign investors are involved in about 20% to 35% of the newer projects.
While the fragmented market is an opening for investors, making acquisitions has proved challenging. Many family-owned operations don't have audited financials, others have unpaid taxes or worker liabilities stretching back years. "The history of sugar cane is good and bad families," said Marcelo Vieira, sugar-cane and coffee manager of Adecoagro, an operating company of International Farmland Holding LLC, a Delaware agricultural holding company that is backed by Mr. Soros and his family. That means some investors have left Brazil empty-handed.
Other companies are now looking to build new plantations from scratch outside traditional sugar-cane areas near São Paulo, says Mr. Vieira, who joined Adecoagro after the company purchased his family's mill in the state of Minas Gerais. For its next project, Adecoagro is spending $150 million on a new mill in Mato Grosso do Sul state, with plans for further expansions.
Other groups are also launching ambitious efforts, aimed primarily at the export market. Samir Kaul, a partner with Khosla Ventures, says the U.S. venture-capital firm is involved in a pending deal to produce ethanol in Brazil. Already a leading investor in renewables in the U.S., Mr. Kaul says Brazil is "the most experienced in doing it, and they are the cheapest right now."
Land is not expected to be a limitation. Brazil has hundreds of millions of acres for grazing cattle that could be converted to sugar-cane production.
For such investors, the U.S. market remains a major draw, despite a tariff of more than 50 cents a gallon on imported ethanol. If Mr. Bush's call for the U.S. to use 35 billion gallons of renewable fuels by 2017 plays out, corn ethanol is expected to supply only half of that. Investors believe that imports will fill a significant niche, and the only country positioned to be a major exporter is Brazil.
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see siin on küll etanooli teema kuid siiski ei tohiks ära unustada, et biokütuste teine grupp on biodiisel (mis muidugi ameeriklasi väga palju ei näi huvitavat kuna seal on diisel sõiduautosid u. 1% või vähem(?) ja truckerid pole eriti "rohelised"), millest aga euroopas kus diiselsõidukeid kõvasti rohkem tõotab tulla isegi olulisem teema kui flex-fuel (bensiini) autondusest. Eestiski mõned mehed pusivad sellel alal. selles tootmises kulub jälle palju metanooli......
aga jah, järsku näib etanooli tootmisest moeasi saanud olevat. loodan, et rummi ja cachaca (caiprinhade) jaoks tulevikus ikka ka suhkruroogu jätkub -
"Brasiilia tundub, et votab yldse yle kogu turu varem voi hiljem, juba kavandamisel etanooli torujuhe Jaapanisse." .-)
Õnneks oli originaal juures, selgub, et torujuhe ikka ainult Vaikse ookeani rannikuni ja sealt juba laevaga edasi. -
BBC: Brazilian biofuels' pulling power
Ja veel BBC-lt üldine ülevaade energeetikast:
Fueling the future -
Brasiilia on olnud juba pikemalt "success story waiting to happen". Eeldused jõudsaks majanduskasvuks on olemas, kuid siiski ei ole seda viimastel aastatel juhtunud. Intressid kõrged, majanduskasv eelmisel aastal vist paar protsenti.
Äkki on alternatiivkütuste teema Brasiilia "nokiaks"? Äkki oskab keegi nimetada mõnd börsil kaubeldavat Brasiilia suhkrutootjat või põllumajandusega tegelevat ettevõtet laiemalt. There are mouths to be fed and cars to be driven. -
Kusagilt blogist:
i) Brasil Ecodiesel - unusually, a biodiesel company in sugar cane rich ethanol producing Brazil
ii) Cosan SA, a producer, cultivator and harvester of ethanol from sugarcane
iii) Sao Martinho, Brazil's biggest ethanol refiner
So is Brazilian biofuel a good long-term bet?
Some environmentalists have their doubts - understandably - about the potential destruction of natural virgin habitat to make way for increased Brazilian biofuel production. On the other hand, development economists laud biofuels as an opportunity for Brazil to finally get rich - the first developing country in world history to move up to developed world status on the back of agriculture
kuni järgmise põlvkonna kütused tulevad ja muudavad vbl uuesti pilti............ -
Brasiilia peab enne arnenud riigi staatusesse astumist sisemise sotsiaalse tasakaalu leidma.
Suurenevast majanduskasvist pole eriti kasu, kui enamik inimesi elab alla vaesuse piiri. Ja etanooli tootmise suurendamine ka olukorda eriti ei muuda, sest enamus vastavatest firmadest on vaikese ringi rikkurite kaes. -
Berezovski igal juhul paneb oma raha ilmselt Brasiilia etanooli alla:
http://lenta.ru/news/2007/03/08/sponsor/ -
Brasiilia tõenäoliselt ei muutu kunagi arenenud riigiks - rahvaarv kasvab nii kiirelt, et alati jääb riigis olema tohutu hulk inimesi, kes elavad väga vaeselt.
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PEIX rekordiliselt madalal. Samas nafta hind rekoriliselt kõrge. Kas ostukoht? Kuuldatavasti kompanii siiski laienemas.
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fredo, hoolimata nafta rekordilistest hindadest pead arvestama sellega, et etanoolitööstuse sisendiks olevad teravilja hinnad on samuti ülisuure tõusu läbi teinud (näiteks nisu kasv pea 100% aastaga). Ja protsentuaalselt mõõdetuna on sisendi hindade tõus teravilja osas kindlasti ületanud nafta hinna tõusu.
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pidades silmas ethanol kütuse tooraine pidevat tõusu tänu sellele, et tühja kõhuga ei ole võimalik autoga sõita, tundub selle kütuse liigi tulevik tume
enne on vaja ikka need näljased suud toita ja see tõstab hinda kiiremini, kui nafta hind tõuseb -
Jah, langus biokütuste osas on täna eriti võimas.
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Selline pilt PEIX aktsia kohta. Lühiajaliseks hinnasihiks oodatakse 9.5-9.9 USD
