Börsipäev 6. märts
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Mõned kommentaarid meie tervishoiusektori Pro ideele Global Healthcare Sector (IXJ). Positsiooni võtsime 57.36 peal ning hetkel on idee -2% miinuses, kuna IXJ eilne sulgemishind oli 56.2. Ostnuks me samal päeval IXJ positsiooni avamisega näiteks QQQQ-d $43.5 pealt oleksime eilse seisuga miinuses -3.1% ja väikeettevõtteid koondava IWM puhul-3.4%
See ilmestab ka meie investeerimisteesi, millest Pro all kirjutasime, et ebakindlatel aegadel on mõistlikum konservatiivsetes portfellides hoida tervishoiu aktsiaid. Samuti kirjutasime jaanuaris Pro all potentsiaalikatest ravimitest, mis võivad turul varsti laineid lüüa ning juhtisime tähelepanu, kuidas meie poolt välja selekteeritud ETF sisaldas ka selliseid komponente, kellel oli kõige suurem tõenäosus tulemaks välja uute ravimitega, võrreldes seda teiste ETF-ide komponentidega.
Täna tuli IXJ ja Novartise(NVS) hoidjatele rõõmustav uudis, et FDA on heaks kiitnud Novartise kõrg-vererõhu ravimi Tekturna, millest 12. jaanuaril kirjutasime. NVS moodustab IXJ-st ca 6.5% ning on ravimi teate abil üle 4.5% plussis -
Gauging the Bounce
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/6/2007 8:16 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"I don't measure a man's success by how high he climbs but how high he bounces when he hits bottom."
-- George S. Patton
After another poor day of market action, a much anticipated bounce is kicking in this morning. Overseas markets finally found some support and bounced around 1% on average. That is fairly minor given the extent of recent losses but given how badly the bulls have been punished lately it isn't a bad start.
Our job at this point is to attempt to measure the health of the recovery and determine if it will be just a minor respite within a more dramatic downtrend, or the beginning of a more dramatic recovery that will take us back to the highs we hit just over a week ago. What we need to consider are the vigor of the buying, what groups are leading, and the level of interest in buying on pullbacks. In an ideal world for the bulls, volume should pick up sharply, groups such as semiconductors, biotechnology, financials and retailers should lead, and breadth should be broad.
One of the most notable aspects of the recent decline has been the extremely poor breadth. We have been seeing 4 or 5 stocks declining for every 1 that has been advancing. That degree of selling is unusual and highlights how quickly the mood has become negative. The good thing about it is that the market is correcting all at once and is more likely to find some support faster than if we had the more typical "rolling" correction where various groups sell off one at a time.
So a good rally at this point needs good breadth, good volume and good leadership but most importantly what we want to see is some underlying support. If we jump at the open this morning and then pull back, we want to see some buyers step up, and a feeling emerge that it is necessary to put some capital to work so we don't miss out.
From a technical standpoint it is a poor bet to assume we are going to bounce and go straight up at this point. There are a lot of folks trapped in positions who want out if they can cut their losses, and some encouraged bears who will be looking to put on short positions into strength.
The chances of recovery become better after a series of failed bounce attempts, which let the weak hands escape their pain and allowed the shorts to expend their capital. There is going to be a lot of pressure on this bounce and it can easily fail, but the key is that the indices stop making new lows.
Don't be too optimistic too quickly. We have a lot of damage to repair and a lot of selling pressure remains. It is going to be extremely tough for the market to gain lasting upside momentum at this point. If you play the bounce be ready to eject quickly.
We have a good open on the way although we are already off higher levels from earlier this morning. Foreign markets are up across the board and gold and oil are bouncing as well. -
Stifel jätkuvalt Peabody't esile tõstmas:
Stifel notes U.S. coal production was up 4.0% y/y in the week ending Feb 24, to 22.5 mln tons. Firm says Genscape ests that power generator coal stockpiles as of March 5 were 128.8 mln tons, 11% above the 10-year avg and 55% above the year-ago stockpile level. They est that generator stockpiles currently represent 45.6 days of coal consumption, about even with the 10-year March avg of 45.9 days. Firm notes coal mining stocks sold off an avg of 6% over the last week in sympathy with weakness in the overall market and concerns over the possible impact of a slowing world economy on commodity prices. Firm continues to remain cautious on the sector in a period of slack market conditions, but favor Peabody Energy's (BTU) concentration in low-cost mining regions like Wyoming's PRB and the Illinois Basin, and its ability to serve growing Asian coal markets through its Australian mines.
Ülespoole avanevad: BCRX +18.4%, IMH +14.8%, CFC +9.1%, TOPP +8.5%, DSTI +7.8%, LFC +7.0%, ADCT +6.8%, TSTC +6.0%
Allapoole avanevad: ITMN -19.8%, FRO -8.6%, DIGE -8.5%, IFON -6.7%, PGIC -6.1%, ALD -3.2%. -
Mehed, mis selle lause mõte on? "I don't measure a man's success by how high he climbs but how high he bounces when he hits bottom."
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Võibolla see, et ta ei anna alla, vaid jätkab raskuste/takistuste kiuste oma eesmärgi poole liikumist?
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MSM,
Donald Trumpi peaks see lause üsna hästi iseloomustama. Trump oli kunagi planeedi kõige vaesem inimene.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump#Bankruptcy -
See toob meelde ühe teise väljendi:
"Meelekindel on see, kes allakäigutreppi mööda lõpuni rühib". -
Phase Forward(PFWD) esines täna Raymond Jamesi poolt korraldatud konverentsil ning ettevõttest huvitujad saavad seda Phase Forwardi koduleheküljelt Investors alasegmendi alt ka kenasti kuulata. Vaadata tasuks ka slaide, mis on üles riputatud - näiteks backlogi ühtlane kasvamine on rõõmustav. Kinnitati varasemat ütlust, et suur osa müügitulust on 70% osas ette prognoositav, mistõttu meenutab ta mulle üht meie teist praegu avatud Pro ideed Fundtechi(FNDT). Viimasel aastal tuli backlogist ca 75% müügitulust. Lisaks, konverentsil öeldi, et 35 ettevõtet 50-st suurimast ravimiettevõttest kasutab Phase Forwardi tooteid.
Ettevõtte juhtkonna sõnavõtt antud konverentsil oli küll väga kindlakäeline ning öeldi otse välja, et "EDC (Electronic Data Capture) trial adoption accelerating dramatically". Jätkuvalt on tervishoiu sektor FDA poolt surve all oma kliinilisi teste ja monitooringuid üha ohutumaks muutma, mis omakorda suurendab nõudlust PFWD toodete järele. Samuti on oluliseks faktoriks kuluefektiivsus ja konkurentsis püsimise võime.
Kõnealune konverents on kindlasti aidanud kaasa tänasele PFWD'i 7.5%-lisele plussile. -
KÜSIMUS LHV-le? Eile SCSS ütles, et 14. märts tuleb Comment on First Quarter Business Trends. Mida sealt võiks oodata? Kas SCSS on varem ka selliseid trendi kommenteerimisi teinud ja mis tavaliselt sealt välja on koorunud. Kuna SCSS on LHV soovitus, siis ootaks teiepoolset arvamust.
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Selline kommentaaride andmine äritrendidele pole USA börsil just mingi harukordne nähtus. Seda, mida sealt täpselt oodata võiks on raske öelda, kuna meie nägemus Pro all on pisut pikaajalisem kui 1 kvartal. Ettevõte on seni kannatanud kinnisvaraturu jahtumise läbi ning pidanud võitlema oma konkurendi Tempur Pedic'ga(TPX) turuosa pärast.
Fiskaalaasta tulemusi kommenteerides väitis juhtkond, et pikaajalise müügitulu 15%-line kasv ja kasumi 20%-line kasv on jätkuvalt saavutatav ning et nendest lähtudes üritatakse oma tegevust juhtida. Usun, et kommenteeritakse ka nende brändingu kampaaniat ning sealseid edusamme. Kommentaari üldine sõnastuse meeleolu sõltub suuresti sellest, millisele perioodile keskendutakse - on ka varem juhtkond avaldanud meelt, et just aasta teine pool peaks tulema tugevam. Seetõttu, kui 1. kvartali äritrendid on julgustavad, võiks oodata veelgi korralikumaid tulemusi hilisemateks kvartaliteks.
