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Sharki painavad mõtted, kas põrget võib ikka surnud kassi põrkeks nimetada või on tegu hoopis uue tõusutrendiga. Tehniline kahju graafikutele on aga vaieldamatult tehtud ning viimaste päevade käive ei ole samuti olnud kiita.
The Path Chosen
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/13/2007 8:50 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"It requires a very unusual mind to undertake the analysis of the obvious."
-- Alfred North Whitehead (1861 - 1947)
Despite lively debate in the financial community, the markets have so far pursued a very obvious path. Two weeks ago today, we saw major averages plummet with one-day declines not seen since the days after Sept. 11. The Chinese correction got the blame, but anyone who is an active participant in the markets will tell you that such a correction was long overdue and simply waiting for a catalyst.
Now, despite what the media may lead you to believe, we find ourselves on another very obvious path that one follows after such a slide takes place. Although the end result may turn out to be different, all we can do to remain financially prudent is understand where this type of path typically leads.
Although many will argue that the correction was extreme and an overreaction, no one can dispute the technical damage that resulted. After a multi-month upward trend, all major averages cut through the bottom line support and now may either be in the early stages of a new upward trend, or starting a new downtrend -- it's too early to tell which. Either outcome takes time to develop higher highs or lower highs.
So far we have seen a bounce on light volume and narrowing breadth, which means that the moves have not come from a massive amount of buying; rather, they've nimble buys and a lack of selling. This type of V-shaped reversal on light volume after such a severe selloff is often labeled a dead-cat bounce that's doomed to fail.
So far we are following this obvious path perfectly. However, every day that a reversal does not set in we find ourselves questioning this strategy and starting to feel uncomfortable expecting another thrust lower.
Be careful out there and don't forget that sometimes, the hardest strategy to adopt is the one that is the most obvious.
Fortunately, the individual investor has the unique ability to sit and wait it out. Take refuge in the fact that despite the arguments in the media, we have yet to do anything other than what the rule books say, and that sometimes analyzing this obvious action is the hardest thing to do.
We are starting the day lower off some further weakness overseas. Last night Texas Instruments tightened its financial targets, which may dampen the semiconductor sector, which has been holding up technology stocks. There are more rumblings from the subprime market, so we will once again have a tricky day on our hands. -
SanDisk SNDK upgraded by UBS Neutral » Buy
Accredited Home Lenders LEND dowgraded by Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Accredited Home Lenders LEND downgraded by Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Underperform
RadioShack RSH downgraded by RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
Marvell MRVL downgraded by UBS Buy » Reduce
Retail Sales ex-auto -0.1% vs +0.3% consensus
Retail Sales +0.1% vs +0.3% consensus
Jaemüügi numbrid alla ootuste. Jättes automüügi välja, on numbrid veelgi koledamad.
Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: SWHC +8.2%, JCOM +6.7%, NABI +3.5%, GIGM +2.9%, DKS +2.9%... M&A: WCI +13.0% (Icahn affiliates plan $22/share offer for WCI), SFC +11.1% (to be acquired by Macquarie-led consortium for $14.50/share), CSG +9.3% (shares rise on speculation about a takeover - Bloomberg.com), ... Other news: IVAN +12.3% (says produces 'high-quality' heavy oil product with novel process design), ADLR +6.4% (follow-through momentum resulting from yesterday's Entereg news), ORCT +7.0% (close to signing contract worth tens of millions of dollars with unidentified co, Ma'ariv reports - Bloomberg.com), MAMA +5.5% (announces partnership with Yahoo! to connect Australian Internet searches with relevant advertisers), HST +4.5% (will replace PD in the S&P 500), CYTR +3.7% (Fidelity discloses 13.0% stake), AMSC +2.6% (signs multi-mln dollar contract to develop wind energy systems for Chinese mkt).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: AOB -17.4%, SHFL -12.8% (also downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), WPTE -9.0% (also multiple downgrades), IFOX -6.6%, TXN -2.1% (down in sympathy: CY -2.5%, MRVL -2.4%, SIMO -2.1%, AMAT -0.7%, NVLS -0.6%, KLAC -0.5%)... Subprime meltdown, this time on LEND "strategic options" announcement: LEND -46.1%, FMT -13.1%, NFI -12.7%, AHM -6.6%, IMH -6.4%, CFC -4.4%, NDE -3.9%... Other news: TSL -4.1% (Hang Seng index closed down 0.6%; also likely profit-taking after 2-day eight point run), RSH -2.4% (downgraded to Underperform at RBC). -
Floor Talk: Mid-day sell-off
The immediate catalyst for the abrupt mid-day sell-off looks technical, as selling in the major averages accelerated once they broke to new session lows (Dow -130, Naz -33) -- although this did coincide with some gloomy headlines from the MBA regarding mortgage delinquincies. Other than this, we haven't seen any other headlines cross the wires that could have triggered the selling. It's notable that the homebuilders, which are in the third day of an aggressive sell-off, have seen no let-up today owing to increasing concerns about group's exposure to the mortage lenders, as well as some negative economic and housing forecasts. -
Ja neile, kes ei tea, siis kõnealuse majade-ehitajate ETFi tähis on XHB...
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Kas on ka mingi konkreetne põhjus (st peale üleüldise languse), miks PFWD täna -7%?
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Kukkumine tõesti tavapärasest liikumisest pisut suurem. Aga vaadates kaubeldud aktsiate mahtu (mis on väike keskmisega võrreldes) ja kuna hetkel kohe midagi otseselt ettevõtet puudutavat silma ka ei hakka, paneks süü turu üldise languse ning tehnilist pilti (põrge 50 päeva keskmiselt) jälgivate kauplejate peale. Punktiseid liikumisi on ka varem ette tulnud.
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Countrywide Financiali CEO andis intervjuu CNBC-le ning rääkis housing'u kõvast maandumisest ning sellest, et pilt võib veel koledamaks minna. Päris huvitav kommentaar.
In an interview on CNBC, CFC CEO says 7% of co's loans originate in sub-prime mkt. He says the sub-prime issue is becoming an unnecessary liquidity crisis for homeowners, and he thinks it is an overreaction. Says primary problem rests in the speculative real-estate investment area -- notes the loans are'nt the problem, the people the loans were sold to are the problem. Says we're having the hard landing in housing he talked about three quarters ago, and thinks it's going to get uglier. He thinks the Fed will have to cut rates if this issue affects the economy. Says this will be great for CFC at the end of the day.
