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Börsipäev 20. märts

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  • Tänased majandusandmed:

    Building Permits 1532K vs 1550K consensus
    Housing Starts 1525K vs 1445K consensus

    Ehituste alustamine pisut aktiivsem oodatust, väljastatud lubade arv see-eest in-line.
  • Negativity Is Buoying the Market

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/20/2007 8:24 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "The man who voyages strange seas must of necessity be a little unsure of himself. It is the man with the flashy air of knowing everything, who is always with it, that we should beware of."

    --Fred Hoyle

    There are a lot of good reasons to be negative about the market. Most notably, the technical conditions are weak following several sharp moves downward. There is a possible double bottom forming but it developed a bit too quickly and is of questionable strength. There are obviously problems: the subprime mortgage market, a slowing economy and persistent inflation.

    Last night we saw comments that margin debt is hitting record levels, which sounds quite worrisome, but cash levels in brokerage accounts are also extremely high so it' a wash. However, headlines about seemingly speculative excesses do paint a negative picture.

    It is not hard at all to make a negative case for equities right now. In fact, it is so easy that we already have a very high level of pessimism, as exhibited by things like the persistently high level of put-option buying compared to call-option buying.

    What is particularly difficult about this is that the negativity arose so quickly; we went from great complacency to a high level of worry in a very short time. Perhaps that is a function of the way the market rallied without pause off the summer lows, but generally after such a persistent rally, market players tend to hold on to their optimism for a while and not shed it so readily. It is unusual for market players to change their posture so fast.

    In addition to the abrupt increase in negativity we also have persistent private-equity and merger activity. If the big-money boys are worried about the market they aren't exhibiting it as they continue to do deals like buying big prime-mortgage portfolios, as announced this morning. Overseas markets have held up extremely well despite an excellent opportunity to sell off following efforts by Chinese officials to cool the market.
  • Goldman Sachs on täna hommikul väljas positiivse kommentaariga terasesektorile. Põhipunktiks on varude kiire vähenemine, mistõttu oodatakse oluliselt kõrgemaid hindu. Terasesektori mängud: X, STLD, NUE, RS, ZEUS, CMC ja SCHN, mille tegevustest oleme LHV-s ka varem kirjutanud.

    CMC on täna eraldi teemana ka omna tulemustega väljas, mis ületasid ootusi. 3. kvartali prognoos inline.
    CMC prelim $0.64 ex-items vs $0.61 Reuters consensus; revs $2.02 bln vs $1.79 bln Reuters consensus
    CMC sees Q3 $0.70-0.80 vs $0.76 Reuters consensus

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: HRSH +5.9%, SIMO +5.2%, SCMM +5.0%... M&A: ACS +18.0% (Darwin Deason and Cerberus propose to take ACS private at $59.25/share), ESCH +15.0% (to be acquired by Integra Telecom for $30/share), PALM +4.6% (Palm deal in the final stretch - Unstrung), CLE +3.0% (Apollo Mgmt to spend $3 bln for CLE - NY Post)... Mortgage lenders squeezing higher on LEND news: LEND +30.8% (announces $200 mln term loan commitment), NFI +8.5%, FMT +5.8%, IMH +1.2%... Other news: WEL +11.0% (positive newsletter mention; also reports tonight), CBLI +10.4% (receives Developmental Grant from Department of Defense for Protectan CBLB502), PLUG +7.4%, GNVC +7.1% (signs R&D agreement with National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases to develop RSV vaccines), RMBS +6.9% (FTC grants partial stay in Rambus case), CSIQ +6.6% (wins contract to supply BIPV solar glass roof system to China's Luoyang Polysilicon), LTS +5.3% (follow-through momentum after yesterday's earnings-related move), AOB +5.0% (upgraded to Strong Buy at ValuEngine - CNBC), TIE +2.5% (positive newsletter mention).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: SYX -19.2%, CAMT -8.3%, NCMI -2.4%... Other news: TTEC -5.6% (announces secondary offering of 5 mln shares), VPHM -3.6% (announces proposed offering of $200 mln in convertible senior notes), SONS -3.2% (discloses that on March 15 it received from the SEC staff a formal order of private investigation), BWP -3.1% (prices public offering of common units), CCOI -3.0%, SAP -1.8% (European markets weak; also chatter of competitive concerns), NCTY -1.8%.
  • Dow Chemical DOW upgraded by HSBC Securities Neutral » Overweight $42 » $55
    SanDisk SNDK CIBC upgraded by Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform $50
    Take-Two TTWO downgraded by Kaufman Bros Hold » Sell $17
    Titanium Metals TIE initiated by Banc of America Sec Buy $41

    Pisut pikem inglisekeelne kokkuvõte erinevatest reitingutest:

    BofA initiates Titanium Metals (TIE 34.63) with a Buy and sets a $41 tgt, as they believe margins/returns should improve as the co renews long term contracts and signs new contracts while they see good potential for further growth and investment in the business based on their attractive FCF profile... BofA initiates RTI International Metals (RTI 87.59) with a Neutral and sets a $99 tgt, as they believe run-rate EPS should be fairly flat this year due to cost pressures and expect EPS growth to resume in '08 as new melt and fabricating capacity will be in place... CIBC initiates Canadian National Railway (CNI 44.47) with an Outperform based on valuation, industry leadership position as a scheduled railroad, and the expectation that the story of improved operating efficiency will continue for the foreseeable future... CIBC initiates Canadian Pacific Railway (CP 54.76) with a Sector Perform based on the co's leverage to international markets and less exposure to the current U.S.-centric economic slowdown while they still struggle in functioning as a scheduled railroad.

    Thomas Weisel downgrades Digene (DIGE 39.72) to Market Weight from Overweight, based upon the transfer of Digene from the Life Science Technology sector to the Diagnostic sector as they believe higher expectations are priced into the co's stock relative to its new peer group

    AG Edwards initiates Citigroup (C 50.06) with a Buy and sets a $58 tgt, as they see the co as among the most levered financial companies to an improvement in the yield curve and a more accommodative Fed and look for their international corporate and investment banking business to show healthy levels of growth

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