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Börsipäev 22. märts

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  • Briefing.com tehniline meeskond usub tõusu jätkumisse, kuid nende arvates võib see olla ebaühtlane peale sellist põrget. Eilne ralli oli pigem korrektsioon mitte tõus uutele tippudele. 15/16. märtsi tipud on briefingu arvates tehniliselt tähtsad toetustasemed. Jälgige käivet.

    WSJ kirjutab täna pangandussektorist, viidates regionaalpankadele, mis on andnud laenusid ehitusfirmadele. Välja tuuakse Colonial BancGroup Inc (CNB), mis tegutseb Florida turul ja on sealset kohalolekut veelgi suurendanud. Firma laenudest oli 41% ehitusturul ja sellest pool majadeehitajatele laenatud. Floridas on toimumas üks suurimaid hinnalangusi kinnisvaraturul. Lisaksin siia juurde, et sarnased probleemid on kummitanud ka laenukindlustajaid - PMI, RDN, MTG. MTG ja RDN on samuti esindatud päris suurelt California ja Florida turgudel (MTG on väiksema avatusega sub-prime turule, kuid loss-ratio on tõusnud viimasel kvartalil). Viimastel võivad probleemid veel ees seista, kuid kaubeldakse P/E ja P/BV ajalooliste põhjade lähedal.

    Briefing.com pakub artikli lühikokkuvõtte: The Wall Street Journal reports as the outlook for home builders grows grimmer, regional banks that extended loans to construction companies could start having some costly regrets. Colonial BancGroup (CNB) is among the banks most heavily exposed to the Florida construction market. Colonial, with more than 300 branches, lent far more to construction borrowers as a percentage of its so-called core capital last year than recommended by FDIC guidelines. Colonial's construction-lending ratio is 413% of core capital -- a measure of a bank's financial strength -- compared with the FDIC's minimum threshold guideline of 100%, according to FDIC data. "If you have more than twice as many loans on your books as your liquidation value, then you're essentially just waiting for the vultures to swoop in," says Richard Suttmeier, chief market strategist for RightSide Advisors. Mr. Suttmeier says he doesn't own Colonial's shares. What is more worrying is the geographic concentration of Colonial's loan portfolio. At least 55% of its total loans are in Florida, which analysts say is undergoing one of its worst housing recessions ever.


    Eile tõmbas Motorola taas oma prognoose alla, mis põhimõtteliselt ei olnud enam üllatus. Juhtkond viitab suurtele varudele ning probleemid tootevaliku osas ei leia ilmselt veel niipea lahendust. Vahetatakse välja mõningad juhtfiguurid. Citigroup usub, et Samsung on võtmas oma osa vanadel turgudel ning Nokia sööb Motorola lõunat arenevatel turgudel.

    Citigroup: As Expected, Motorola Stumbles In 1Q07➤ MOT pre-announced 1Q results, showing a loss in their handset business.➤ It looks like Motorola's competitors are attacking the company now that it isdistressed. We think that Samsung is hurting them in the mature markets andNokia in the emerging ones. This is the biggest surprise of the quarter.➤ Because of the fixed cost associated with the handset biz, share losses can havethe same type of impact on margins in the short-term as price cuts.➤ Mgmt noted that they have some inventory issues, revolving around the KRZRand C-series devices. Inventories will not be cleaned up until the end of 1H.➤ We lower our estimate after the preannouncement.We also change our pricetarget from $22 to $20 based on our lowered EPS estimate. We reiterate ourHold recommendation on the stock with a High Risk rating.

    RBC downgrades Motorola (MOT 18.74) to Sector Performer from Outperformer

    Merriman initiates VeriChip (CHIP 6.21) with a Buy, based on their enviable position as the only supplier for human implantable RFID chips now via its VeriMed division, importantly becoming the medical industry's de facto standard over the next 3-4 years

    CIBC initiates Life Time Fitness (LTM 50.72) with a Sector Outperformer and sets a $60 tgt, based on intelligent positioning, attractive financials and a business philosophy oriented toward long-term profitability

    Prudential initiates Sony (SNE 52.77) with an Overweight and sets a $62 tgt, as they believe the co should benefit from media digitalization revolution in consumer electronics, operating margins should continue to improve under new leadership and should retain the #1 position in games, but could lose share as competition intensifies

    First Albany initiates NutriSystem (NTRI 48.34) with a Buy

    CIBC initiates NutriSystem (NTRI 48.34) with a Sector Performer, based on strong business momentum over the next 12-18 months and attractive valuation and see competition from other weight loss solutions, the threat of a new OTC weight loss drug launch, low entry barriers for major food companies, moderating new customer growth, rising advertising and marketing costs and high volatility in shares

    Citigroup upgrades Saks (SKS 19.78) to Buy from Hold

  • Rethinking Yesterday's Fed Rally

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/22/2007 9:03 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "Always mystify, mislead and surprise the enemy if possible."

    -- Stonewall Jackson

    Market players were surprised yesterday by a kinder and more dovish Fed. At first many were confused by the subtle changes in language in the policy statement. There was still acknowledgment that inflation is an issue that hasn't gone away but the wording was changed in a manner to indicate that the Fed was now more open to the possibility of rate cuts in the future.

    This was unexpected and it sent bulls scrambling to add long exposure and shorts scurrying to cover. Unlike most Fed announcements, there was no market whipsaw. We went straight up and didn't even pause for a breath because so many were poorly positioned.

    The question now is, where do we go from here? The biggest positive for the market is that there are still many who are improperly positioned for us to suddenly resume an uptrend after a sharp but very short-lived correction. The market has not been following the technical analysis script and that is causing some consternation.

    The main reason things have not been playing out as many were anticipating is because so many market players became so negative and cautious so quickly. It was highly unusual that sentiment become negative so fast.

    Because so many had become so cautious so fast the selling pressure quickly dissipated. Those who were fearful had already acted on their emotions and there was no one left to pressure things down. Combined with continued high levels of liquidity the market began to climb back up slowly and steadily. There were still plenty of doubts going into the Fed announcement and when the surprise news hit, the rush was on.

    There are still plenty of folks ill-prepared for further strength and this is likely to keep support under this market. The dip buyers are not going away especially because buying weakness lately has proven to be the road to profits. Until they suffer some consistent failures they are going to keep doing their thing.

    While there is plenty of poor positioning to support the market it isn't all positives out there. The whole premise for the buying yesterday is questionable. The Fed's increased dovishness is likely due to concerns that we may have some problems in the housing market and a slowing economy. The Fed is not signaling the end of the worries over inflation but reiterating the need to provide stimulus should economic problems deepen.

    So although we might have a questionable foundation for continued strength, market players are so badly positioned, dip buyers so confident and liquidity so prevalent that the downside is likely to be limited. That doesn't mean we won't pull back after such a euphoric move but those looking for the market to quickly fall apart again are likely to be disappointed.

    We have a flat start to the day as emotions cool. Overseas markets had strong sympathetic action and oil and gold are up strongly.
  • Prudential märgib täna, et nende arvates kasutab Apple (AAPL) iPhone OLED tehnoloogiat Samsungilt. Lisaks arvavad nad, et OLED on järgmine samm ning võib asendada LCD tehnoloogia arvutites, telefonides ja isegi telekates. Minu mäletamist mööda peaks Samsungiga seotud olema päris tihedalt Universal Display Corporation (PANL), mis on ka viimastel päevadel korralikult kerkinud.

    Prudential notes that their checks indicate that the upcoming Apple iPhone will likely use an OLED (Organic Light Emitting Diode) display from Samsung-SDI. Firm thinks OLEDs could cannibalize, if not ultimately replace LCD displays in notebooks PCs, desktop PC monitors, cellphones and even TVs. With thinner displays and better power dissipation, mobile handset and notebook PC markets are candidates for mass adoption - so the OLED opportunity appears compelling. Firm says the industry is still climbing down the manufacturing yield curve, and mass market adoption is likely several years away. Firm believes OLEDs are a disruptive technology, and investors should have it on their radar screen.

  • Neile, kes eile Föderaalreservi otsust lugeda ei jõudnud, olgu siis öeldud, et nende ametlikust tekstist eemaldati väljend "extent and timing of additional firming.." ja selle asemelt võib nüüd leida väljendi "future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth." Seega võimalike tõusude kohta lause ärakaotamist peeti turu poolt positiivseks, kuid iseenesest ka uue sõnastuse puhul ei ole välistatud võimalikud intressitõstmised ning raske on siit välja lugeda, kuna ja mis ulatuses võiks jätkuvalt data-dependent Föderaalreserv intresse alandada.

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: RCMT +25.4%, AEZS +3.4%, SIGM +2.5%, KOMG +1.3%... Mortgage lenders squeeze higher following lack of specific mention by the Fed yesterday of subprime concerns: LEND +6.7%, NFI +3.9%, FMT +3.0%... Other news: AGIX +13.7% (Reuters runs story covering PFE failed heart drug, mentions AZN-AGIX drug announcement from 3/19 and data expected at upcoming ACC meeting; also short-covering as short interest is 53%), ARXT +10.3% (announces settlement agreement with Mutual Pharma), LGND +6.0% (announces $2.50/share cash dividend, $100 mln buyback), ISIS +5.1% (follow-through momentum), TSL +4.8% (positive newsletter mention), BQI +4.7% (follow-through momentum), HAYN +3.6% (Cramer positive on stock; also positive on FCX +1.9% & FSLR +1.1%, among others).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: MLHR -9.4%, MOT -5.3%... Down in sympathy with MOT guidance: RFMD -5.4%, PALM -4.7% (also Morgan Keegan sees near-term acquisition as unlikely), MFLX -4.6%, SWKS -3.8%, FLEX -2.9%, IRF -2.3%, ANAD -2.2%, CELL -1.7%... Other news: INTU -6.7% (reports TurboTax sales through March 17; ThinkEquity cuts their tgt to $31 citing weak TurboTax sales), EAS -2.3% (additional 9 mln share offering priced at 24.25), ALU -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman), ABMD -1.1% (to sell 5 mln shares at $13.75/share).
  • Päris huvitavaid katkeid jookseb uudistefeedist läbi:

    U.S mortgage market has seen chronic neglect, mortgage market has seen few checks and balances, says Senate Banking Chairman Chris Dodd- Bloomberg

    Parimad palad siin. Tõik, et Kongress peaks nõudma laenuandjatelt, et nad arvestaksid võlgniku võimega oma kohustust tagasi maksta, võtab paratamatult näo naerule. Kas seni võis siis laenu anda silmad kinni, inimese varalist seisu uurimata?! Aga noomitus on muidugi korralik.

    Investors should take "an active role" in working through subprime problems, Fed - Reuters
    Congress should require lenders to consider borrower's ability to repay loan - Reuters

    Fed says subprime sector consolidation 'has likely not yet run its course' - Reuters
    ed says not now seeing 'spillover effects' from subprime market into general mortgage market - Reuters
    Fed says housing credit deterioration focused in narrow subprime market - Reuters
    Fed says less than half of subprime loans from federally regulates banks - Reuters


    Juhtivad indikaatorid kahanesid oodatust enam -0.5% vs -0.3% konsensus

  • järgmine toetus nasdaqil on 2320 punkti:)
  • Maagaasivarud suurenesid 17 bcf võrra. Seda on oodatust pisut enam, konsensuseks oli langus -2 bcfi.
  • Countrywide (CFC) ütleb, et laenude tagatiste nõuded 2006. aastal võivad ületada 2000. aasta 9.9% taset. Viimane oli üks hullemaid aastaid.

    KB Home callilt kommentaar:

    primary risk co sees from changes in subprime lending is the overall market risk of a potential slowdown in housing demand from buyers not being able to qualify under stricter underwriting standards or the possibility of increased excess supply of unsold homes from a rise in foreclosures
  • Kuna Oliver Florida kinnisvaraturu teema täna juba üles tõstatas, siis panen siia uuesti JMP kommentaari, mille ma postitasin 26. veebruari börsipäeva foorumisse. Kinnitus Oliveri sõnade kohta Florida kinnisvaraturu nõrgast olukorrast.

    JMP says that theye spent several days in South Florida visiting primarily coastal condominium markets, and their visit suggests that the worst is yet to come in Florida. Firm believes that a drop in base prices is the next leg of the downturn in the Florida mkt. Many builders ramped up their exposure in terms of land or entered the Florida market through acquisition over the 2003-05 time frame, and thus must have acquired much of their land position at high prices. Given that most have not yet reported material write-downs in Florida, firm believes that meaningful write-downs will likely come later this year. Firm says the builders with the largest Florida exposure are WCI, MHO, and TOL.
  • http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2007/03/22/signs-of-subprime-spillover/

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