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Börsipäev 30. märts

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  • McAdams Wright Ragen adds Thor Industries (THO 38.90) to their Focus List and sets a $55 tgt, as they believe sales will grow on average around 7% to 8% in the coming years and feel they will continue to gain share from competitors with new products

    Stifel Nicolaus upgrades Broadcom (BRCM 31.05) to Buy from Hold and sets a $40 tgt, as they believe Broadcom will be at the forefront of a recovering semiconductor industry

    UBS upgrades Steel Dynamics (STLD 42.70) to Buy from Neutral

    BofA upgrades NYMEX (NMX 135.72) to Buy from Neutral

    SunTrust initiates Callaway Golf (ELY 15.60) with a Buy and sets a $20 tgt, based on strong brand equity, initiatives to restore profitability, and a strong new product platform in '07 that should re-establish solid revenue growth

    Credit Suisse adds Caterpillar (CAT 66.88) to their U.S Focus List saying they believes that CAT has the most attractive risk/reward in the Construction & Farm Machinery sector. The firm notes most of the spending this cycle is being driven overseas—reflecting the industrialization of developing economies such as China, India, and the Middle East. In addition, Europe is in the beginning of a cyclical upswing. The firm notes this plays to Caterpillar's strengths—a global dealer network and over 50% of sales generated overseas

    Bankrate (RATE) upgraded to Buy from Hold to Citigroup

    Suntrust says they remain bullish on RATE and contend that the stock's recent swoon reflects an over-reaction to perceived macro risk factors. Firm says some RATE detractors argue that ongoing turmoil in the sub-prime mortgage mkt presages overall mkt deterioration, which will ultimately cause many of the co's advertisers to fail or will substantially erode the co's pricing power. Firm contends that these concerns are materially misplaced in light of the co's increasingly diversified advertiser base and its superior value proposition.

  • Personal Spending +0.6% vs +0.3% consensus, prior +0.5%
    PCE Core MoM +0.3% vs +0.2% Briefing.com estimate
    Personal Income +0.6% vs +0.3% consensus, prior +1.0%
  • Eilsete energiajuttude jätkuks sobib siia täna vahendada Barronsi all kirjutatut, kus leitakse, et energiaettevõtete teenindajad kauplevad turul allahindlusega.

    Eelkõige keskendutakse Grant Prideco(GRP) ja BJ Services(BJS) tegevustele, kes toodavad torusid, teatud puurimisseadmeid ning osutuvad nafta ja maagaasi puurimise platvormidele vajalikke regulaarseid hooldustöid. Kordajad, millel ettevõtted kauplevad on viimase aastaga kukkunud, kuid prognoosid kahekohalisteks kasumikasvudeks on jäänud jõusse.

    Grant Prideco on oma aasta tippudest ca 10% langenud. Probleemseks põhjuseks eelkõige Kanadas vähenenud töötavate puurtornide arv (rig count). USAs pole see näit seni muresid valmistanud. Morgan Stanley analüütik Ole Slorer kirjutas oma klientidele veebruaris, et seoses võimaliku oodatust parema tegevusaktiivsusega Põhja-Ameerika maagaasiturul, usub ta antud ettevõtte potentsiaali ning andis ‘Overweight’ reitingu. Kuna U.S. Steel(X) oli nõus ümaraid terastooteid tootva LSSi eest maksma 18x kasumit, usub Slorer, et GRP väärib oma ‘intelligentsemate’ nn tulevikutoodete tõttu kauplema kõrgematel kordajatel. Järgmise aasta kasumiprognoos tema poolt ettevõttele on $4.69 ning hetkel kaupleb GRP $50 peal.

    Loomulikult on viimase aja naftahinna tõusu valguses pööratud antud sektori ettevõtetele rohkem tähelepanu, mistõttu koos Pärsia lahe pingete ja nafta hinna alanemisega võivad löögi alla sattuda kogu sektori ettevõtted.

    Loo lõpus avaldatud sõnademäng avaldub kõige paremini just inglise keeles:

    Thus, shares of Grant Prideco and BJ Services seem to reflect enough bad news about the U.S. natural-gas market to offer investors the smooth sailing that proved elusive to the British naval crew.

  • Dead Ahead: Frustration

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/30/2007 8:31 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "The probability that we may fail in the struggle ought not to deter us from the support of a cause we believe to be just."

    -- Abraham Lincoln

    The market continues to hold up very well despite an onslaught of possible negatives. Perhaps too many market players are already anticipating the worse, which means that much of the selling pressure has already been expended but the bears simply have not been able to gain much downside traction even though there are some clear issues.

    The most notable issue is that on Wednesday Ben Bernanke made it clear that the market had overacted to the changes in the latest policy statement and that an interest rate cut was unlikely in the near future. He also stated that he is not concerned about the economy falling into a recession, but it was the interest rate cut that many market bulls were counting on to keep things moving.

    In addition to the reduced chances of a near-term rate cut, there is also tension over Iran, ramping oil prices and continued inflationary pressures. Technical conditions have deteriorated with all of the major indices trading under their 50-day simple moving averages and with the first quarter of the year coming to a close today we will begin to look to earnings reports as the next catalyst.

    Despite these issues the market has not fallen apart swiftly or easily. Buyers continue to step up on just about any dip as we saw aptly demonstrated again yesterday. Perhaps there are some end-of-the-quarter window dressing pressures helping matters at the moment, but it seems clear that there is consistent underlying buying support that has yet to be dissuaded from participating in this market.

    As long as those underlying bidders remain, the market is going to remain extremely choppy and frustrating. The issues listed above are likely to keep the upside contained while the high level of negativity and anxious dip buyers will likely prevent substantial downside.

    We have a slightly soft open this morning as oil continues its climb and European markets struggle.

    I will be back at my post full time on Monday. I want to thank everyone for their thoughts and prayers during a difficult time for me. I appreciate it very much. Enjoy the weekend and make sure you spend some time with those you love.

    ----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: SPEC +12.4%, USBE +6.7%, JASO +6.0%, PMCS +5.9%, RHT +5.4%... DNDN +264.0% after FDA committee voted in favor of Provenge for advanced prostate cancer; "cancer plays" up in sympathy: CEGE +29.1%, AGEN +23.7%, INGN +22.4%, NUVO +11.1%, CYTO +9.5%, VICL +7.4%, MEDX +6.2%, INCY +5.5%... Ethanol stocks trading higher following crop report: AVR +5.5%, XNL +2.1%, PEIX +1.9%... Other news: IMH +10.4% (cuts dividend, securitizes loans), AVII +5.4% (initiated with a Buy and $5 tgt at Maxim), TGEN +4.2% (continued momentum from yesterday's earnings-related spike).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: ICTG -22.3%, DSW -4.8%, TIBX -4.6% (also announces departure of sales head), COGN -3.3%, CKR -3.0%... Other news: LJPC -6.9% (announces pricing of 5.8 mln share offering at $6.00), DCP -6.3% (lost GAO protest of linquist contract), AVCI -5.0% (profit-taking after recent run, also cautious Prudential comments), HRB -4.3% (says still in talks to sell its Option One unit; mkt likely expected a quicker sale), VOD -3.6% (trading lower in Europe after saying competitive pressure won't abate), HLF -3.3% (Whitney withdraws buyout proposal following co rejection), DELL -2.7% (to delay 10-K, Audit Committee identifies a number of accounting errors), FMT -2.2% (likely down in sympathy with HRB, as FMT is also seeking alternatives for loan origination biz; also law firm names FMT in ERISA lawsuit).
  • Avaldasime täna natuke mõtteid LHV Pro ‘Muude analüüside’ segmendi all meie investeerimisideede osas. Ajal, mil majandusajakirjade ja internetilehekülgede pealkirjadeks on sellised n-ö toredad sõnapaarid nagu ‘subprime problems’, ‘housing downturn’ või ‘economic slowdown possibility’, tuleb sellise kommentaari lugemine kindlasti kasuks. Usun, et sealne jutt aitab tõsta meie klientide nägemust sellest, kuidas ja mil määral üldse on meie investeerimisideed LHV Pro all nende USAs toimuvate sündmustega seotud.

    Kuna paljudel LHV klientidel on tänase Dendreoni (DNDN) aktsiahinna suure tõusuga selle ettevõtte osakaal portfelli mahust üle mõistuse suureks kasvanud, soovitaks seda lühikest kommentaari sealt kindlasti lugeda. Usume, et igaüks leiab sealt endale sobiva riskiga investeerimisidee – olgu selleks GMKT, FNDT, SIX, PFWD vms. Soe soovitus: ehk oleks aeg vähemasti osa DNDN-i alt vabanevast rahast pisut rahulikumalt kasvama panna?!
  • ärge minge nii ilusa ilmaga välja õlut jooma ..tulge parem LHV chatti:D
  • USA online mängurluse keeld kütab kirgi.

    Follow-up: WTO says U.S. online gambling policy out of line - Globe and Mail

    Globe and Mail reports the U.S. has failed to change its ban on Internet betting to comply with a World Trade Organization ruling that said the legislation unfairly targets offshore casinos, the global trade body said Friday. The ruling opens the door to possible commercial sanctions against the U.S. In a 215-page decision, a three-member WTO compliance panel sided with the twin Caribbean island nation of Antigua and Barbuda, which has argued that Internet gambling is a lucrative source of rev and provides an income for hundreds of islanders. The trade referee has said Washington can maintain restrictions on online gambling, as long as its laws are equally applied to American operators offering remote betting on horse racing. (See 10:33 comment)(CRYP, OPMR, WPTE)

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