Börsipäev 19. aprill
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Väike tagasivaade eile õhtul väljapakutud konsensusootustest ning reaalsetest näitudest mõningate tänaste tulemuste teatajate osas:
MO-lt oodati EPSi 1.06; müügitulu 9.166 mld -> EPS $1.03
MRK-lt oodati EPSi 0.84; müügitulu 5.4 mld -> EPS $0.84, Rev 5.769 mld
NOK-lt oodati EPSi €0.25; müügitulu €10.3 mld -> EPS €0.25, Rev €9.856 mld (excluding non-recurring items)
WYE-lt oodati EPSi 0.87; müügitulu 5.21 mld -> EPS $0.94, Rev 5.369 mld
HOG-lt oodati EPSi 0.72; müügitulu 1.11 mld -> EPS $0.74; Rev 1.18 mld
DHR-lt oodati EPSi 0.77; müügitulu 2.485 mld -> EPS $0.78, Rev 2.556 mld
BTU-lt oodati EPSi 0.40; müügitulu 1.563 mld -> EPS $0.33, Rev 1.365 mld -
Dip Buyers Seek Their Rally Caps
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/19/2007 7:47 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"Happiness is not a matter of intensity but of balance and order and rhythm and harmony."
-- Thomas Merton
Our goal as investors is to be in harmony with the market. If the action is strong we don't want to be fighting it; we want to embrace it and make some money in the stocks that are moving. If the action is weak, we want to raise cash rather than be sitting there hoping the positions we hold will recover.
Unfortunately, that is much harder than it sounds. The state of the market is seldom so clear that we can dispense with all caution. Even when things are going up as strong -- as they have been recently -- we don't want to overlook how quickly conditions can change.
To be in harmony with the present market requires a bullish bias, but that doesn't mean you are oblivious to the fact that we are quite extended and increasingly ripe for a correction as earnings reports roll out. The dilemma is that we don't want to ignore the power of momentum, but we also want to recognize the fact that it can fizzle quickly.
When we have had a streak where the S&P 500 is up 11 out of the last 12 trading days it certainly is difficult to say that there aren't plenty of buyers who want into this market. On the other hand, that sort of strength practically begs for some sort of consolidation before we can go higher. To be in harmony with this situation requires a delicate balance. You want to hold on to longs that are acting well and are not overly extended while at the same time taking some gains into strength and being mentally prepared to move quickly should we suddenly turn down.
Suddenly turning down is exactly what we are seeing this morning. Concerns about the Chinese economy and stock market being overheated are cropping up again, which is increasing pressure to raise interest rates and has pushed the Shanghai Exchange down 4.52% overnight. There is also talk about possibly rising rates in Japan, which is pushing down the Nikkei 1.67%. Europe is down across the board in sympathy, with mining and commodity stocks suffering the brunt of the damage due to concerns about a weak dollar and weakened Chinese demand.
We are set to gap lower at the open this morning, which sets up a very interesting test of the dip buyers again. They have quickly jumped on every opportunity to buy weakness and even managed a new high in the DJIA yesterday after the nasty breakdown a little over a month ago. Buying weakness has been a great strategy for a long time now and it would be a major surprise if the dip buyers didn't continue to do just that. They aren't going to go away until they have suffered some pain and they definitely haven't for a while now.
One positive for the U.S. market is that there are still plenty of earnings reports to contemplate, many of which appear to be pretty good. The big report tonight is Google and that is likely to be quite volatile.
We have a soft open on the way but are already bouncing back a little in the early indications. Oil is steady while gold is taking a hit.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: ASPV +11.9%, BAX +4.0%, ASD +3.7%, SGP +3.3%, STJ +3.2%, TER +2.7%, NOK +2.7%, BTU +2.6% (also announces strategic review of coal operations in West Virginia & Kentucky), VIVO +2.6%, EBAY +2.0%... Small-cap cancer/biotech stocks continue their news-driven rally: AVNR +12.1% (follow-through momentum), MITI +4.7% (higher following second press release on MITI-Medimmune BiTE molecule news), GERN +2.9% (studies confirm proof-of-principle for it's human embryonic stem cell-derived hepatocytes), SUPG +2.8% (data show Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor suppresses critical double-stranded DNA repair protein), IDEV +1.7% (anounces sbmission of supplemental NDA to reintroduce Valstar to treat bladder cancer)... Other news: IVAN +7.8% (signs agreement with Inpex to jointly pursue opportunity to develop heavy oil field in Iraq), LEAP +3.6% (tgt raised to $96 at Jefferies), DSL +2.9% (Cramer says DSL is best risk/reward he's talked about in a long time).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: AVCI -28.4% (also declares $2 special dividend, announces transition out of core router development), SPSN -19.5% (also downgraded to Neutral at Cathay), PWER -15.0%, LOGI -9.1%, WCC -8.0%, OXPS -6.9%, MOGN -6.4%, CPWR -5.6% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Piper), FCS -5.4%, ETFC -5.3%, UNH -4.7%, NVLS -4.3%... China stocks down on overnight weakness in Asian markets: ACH -5.5%, XING -5.3%, TSL -4.6% & JASO -3.4% & SOLF -2.0% (also continued profit-taking after huge solar sector run), LFC -4.2%, CHL -2.9%, etc... Other news: WEL -15.1% (prices 26 mln share common stock offering at $2.10/share), NG -6.0% (announces 12.5 mln share offering pursuant to preliminary prospectus supplement), SMSI -5.0% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies). -
Tänane maagaasivarude raport eelmise nädala kohta vastas igati ootustele. Varud vähenesid -46 bcf-i vs oodatud -47 bcf-i. Analüütikute ootused varieerusid vahemikus -25 bcf-i kuni -61 bcf-i. Ka see nädal on olnud USAs normist jahedam, kuid järgmiseks nädalaks prognoostiakse juba korralikku temperatuuride tõusu.
