Börsipäev 24. aprill
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Eile tõusis volatiilsusindeks vaatamata turuindeksite tagasihoidlikule langusele 8%, mis näitab hirmu tekkimist. Märgiksinära ka, et SPY päevasisene graafik oli päris kena allatrend.
Viimasel ajal on nõrkust näidanud ka Vietnami indeks, mis võib rääkida natukene meeleolude muutusest Aasia turgudel. Märtsitippudest on alla tuldud ca 20%.
Eile teatas Target (TGT), et prognoosib aprilli võrreldavate poodide müüki kahe esimese nädala baasil oodatust tunduvalt nõrgemana. Esialgne prognoos oli -2% kuni -4%. Kombineerituna aprilli ja märtsi perioodi SSS peaks tulemavahemikku 3-4%, mis on samuti eelnevast 4-6-protsendiliset prognoosist madalam.
Täna hommikul teatavad tulemused teraseettevõtted AKS, IPS, USAP, X. Siiani on tulemused teatanud NUE ja STLD ning ootusi on ületatud. Tähtsad prognoosid eriti lehtterase osas, mille turg ei ole väga tugev olnud (AKS).
Eile teatas tugevad tulemused Texas instruments (TXN) ning firma tõstis ka prognoose. Ettevõte kommenteeris varude korrektsiooni, mis on nende arvates selja taha jäänud ning tellimused taaskord tõusma hakanud. Analoog tooted mängivad kasvu osas suurt rolli. Firma juhtkond nendib, et kuigi tegemist on suurima varustajaga, tegutsetakse ülimalt killustatud turul ja ruumi on turuosa kasvatamiseks. Lisaks on positiivne marginaalide paranemine tootmiskulude langemise tõttu. Üldiselt tulemused positiivsed, kuid järelturupea 10-protsendiline tõus oli osaliselt tingitud kindlasti ka lühikeste katmisest - arvestades senist negatiivset sentimenti. Citigroup kommenteerib TXN valguses oma parimaid valikuid sektorist:
Add to Positions in Top Picks ADI, ISIL, and ONNN – Our top picks haveoutperformed YTD, though analysis suggests revenue and excess cash/FCFredeployment +’s remain mis-priced. Buy ADI (15% ETR, 1H), ISIL (24% ETR,1H), ONNN (28% ETR, 1S), and FCS (62% ETR, 1S).
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SunTrust initiates Interactive Intelligence (ININ 14.90) with a Buy and sets a $21.50 tgt, as they believe the co is well positioned to significantly monetize the ongoing shift of legacy telephony hardware to software-based IP telephony
Piper Jaffray upgrades Texas Instruments (TXN 32.41) to Outperform from Market Perform and raises their tgt to $41 from $32
First Albany upgrades Express Scripts (ESRX 88.90) to Strong Buy from Buy, following Q107 results
Bear Stearns initiates Maxim Integrated (MXIM 31.40) and Linear Tech (LLTC 37.85) with Peer Performs
XOM Exxon Mobil downgraded to Hold from Buy at A.G Edwards
Jefferies highlights YHOO as their "Tuesday Value Pick." Firm reits their Buy following the post-earnings pullback. They say YHOO continues to be a 2H07 stock, but they believe the risk/reward profile is currently attractive, as growth is likely to accelerate throughout 2007, driven by monetization gains from Panama and new branded advertising opportunities. -
Täna hommikul kirjutab Cramer väga huvitava loo ettevõtete kasumite osas. Nimelt USA-s ollakse hädas ning Ladina-Ameerika ja Euroopa on päästjateks:
If it weren't for Latin America and Europe, we would have stunning declines in many, many companies.
Usun, et lähikuul võetakse see teema veel tugevamalt üles.
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The Market's Lifeblood: News Flow
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/24/2007 8:13 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"No worthy enterprise can be done by us without continual plodding and wearisomeness to our faint and sensitive abilities."
-- John Milton
As the senior indices hover at all-time highs after a nearly straight up move, it will take some steady buying to keep things going. The plodding persistence of buyers following the plunge in late April and early March has been nothing short of remarkable. Despite a litany of negatives, we have marched straight back up as if we don't have a concern in the world, but it probably won't take much to trigger a good bout of profit taking.
What has been particularly helpful to the market is that earnings season has been quite good so far; expectations seem to have been low enough to have produced positive reports. Texas Instruments, last night, is the latest good-news story. However, that positive news is priced into the market, so the issue becomes whether we can continue to work higher. Good earnings will only take us so far and after that we will need another catalyst. That is particularly so because we have not had any rest or consolidation in a while.
The bulls have two big positives going for them right now: the generally good news and the sedate positive sentiment. Many market participants remain concerned about housing, the mortgage market, inflationary pressures, a slowing economy and rising gasoline prices. That has kept cash on the sidelines and helped create conditions to climb a "wall of worry."
There is a lot of distrust of this market, but that can cut both ways. It certainly has driven us higher as frustrated bears and underinvested bulls keep a bid under the market, but what happens if the positive news flow starts to falter? Will those distrustful folks who have been inching in over the past six weeks or so rush for the exits in an effort to protect their hefty recent gains, or will there be enough people on the sidelines to contain any downside?
So far it has been a major mistake to underestimate the dip buyers, and I suspect that may continue to be the case for a while. It is going to take some real pain before dip buyers will be discouraged, and there are no signs of that yet.
The bulls are in control here and as long as they keep on plodding along, it won't pay to get in their way. That doesn't mean we should be vigilant. It is going to be particularly important to watch to see if the market keeps reacting to positive news like we have from TXN and ignoring negative news like what we have from Target (TGT), which announced dismal sales for April last night.
We have a positive open on the way following the TXN news but it's not quite as euphoric as it was initially last night. Overseas markets are mixed to negative while gold and oil are showing strength. There are lots of earnings out there to consider, which should create some volatility. -
Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: TRCR +19.7%, MSPD +13.3%, CPO +7.8%, TXN +8.7% (up in sympathy NSM +4.7%, EGLT +4.0%, AMAT +1.5%, MRVL +1.3%, CY +0.9%), ALU +5.2%, ALTR +5.1%, ESRX +4.6%, ICLR +4.6%... Small-cap biotech momentum continues: PARS +45.9% (announces Phase 2 data, lowest dose of cannabinor produced statistically significant decrease in pain), VION +13.4% (follow-through momentum; co also announced they are presenting at Fortis conference tomorrow), DNDN +5.2% (Provenge approval likely as politics is a factor; efficacy a question - BofA), ABPI +4.5% (reports the results of CRSFungal Profile), MGRM +3.6% (AP reports FDA panel meets today to review PFE's HIV drug; PFE plans to offer drug alongside MGRM test)... M&A: SMBI +2.6% (to be acquired by Crestview Partners affiliate for $22.35/share in cash)... Other news: FRPT +13.5% (receives $481 mln order from DoD under existing contract), USAT +5.8% (MasterCard and USAT announce that six of America's most prominent vending co's are installing e-Port technology), TASR +4.3% (announces two orders from Penn and Hawaii), FNSR +4.1% (still checking).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: RMD -13.6% (also downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), UCTT -13.3%, IIVI -9.7%, LXK -6.9%, CSL -5.7%, JNPR -4.3% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Piper), BJS -4.0%, PTV -3.8%, COH -3.5%, ELN -3.2%, MICC -3.1%, X -3.0%, TGT -2.7%, LII -2.8%... Other news: EPL -5.7% (announces preliminary results of equity self-tender offer), AVNR -4.7% (further profit-taking after the stock gave up most of yesterday's gain), COGO -3.7% (prices 5.5 mln share offering at $17.50/share), WEN -2.9% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill).
Hulgim tulemusi terasesektorist:
X - U.S. Steel beats by $0.44, slight miss on revs, expects lower tubular prices in Q2 (107.00 ) : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $2.32 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.44 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.88; revenues rose 0.8% year/year to $3.76 bln vs the $3.8 bln consensus.
IPS - IPSCO beats by $0.06, ex items; guides below consensus for Q2 (44.00 ) : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $2.65 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $2.59; revenues rose 14.3% year/year to $1.03 bln vs the $1.05 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $2.60-2.80 vs. $2.87 consensus.
AKS - Reuters Estimates is telling us that excluding the Pension curtailment charge of $15.1 mln ( Pre-Tax), an actual of $0.65 is comparable to their consensus of $0.45. Overall, the higher sequential shipments, coupled with higher average selling prices, are likely to result again in record quarterly revenues. -
Six Flags teenib Crameri eilse saate tõttu täna rohkemate inimeste tähelepanu.
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Panen selle Crameri loo siia üles, kuna eelmine oli parooli all :) .txt
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Langevate netointressimarginaalidega võitlev Commerce Bancorp on südilt vastu pidamas. Tegevdirektor esineb julge ja positiivse sõnavõtuga.
CBH Commerce Bancorp CEO sees bank's 2007 earnings meeting or beating analyst expectations - Reuters (33.97 +0.07)
