Börsipäev 30. aprill
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Goldman upgrades Continental (CAL 36.25) to Buy from Sell
AGU Agrium downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup
TRA Terra Industries downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup
CF CF Industries downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup
RBC downgrades MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR 57.54) to Sector Perform from Outperform.
CIBC upgrades RF Micro Devices (RFMD 6.22) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer and sets an $8 tgt, following a weak Q1 forecast and believe the co will recover and capitalize on improving late CY07 trends...
Futuurid on alustamas nädala esimest kauplemispäeva suhteliselt muutumatuna.
Personal Spending +0.3% vs +0.5% consensus, prior +0.6%
Personal Income +0.7% vs +0.5% consensus, prior +0.6%
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Gapping Up
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: NGA +22.3%, CRNT +13.3%, XFML +9.9%, RSH +8.1%, VSH +8.0%, HERO +6.8%, BEAV +5.1%... Other news: ISE +43.3% (Deutsche Boerse contemplating bid for ISE for approx. $2.8 bln cash, or $67.50 a share), NPTH +26.2% (to be acquired by GB for $14.38 per share in cash), ISPH +24.0% (announced FDA approval of AzaSite), IOTN +19.7% (positive Cramer mention), IDIX +14.7% (announces European Commission approved Sebvio), AVNR +14.4%, SGMO +13.8% (announces research and license agreement with Genentech), ISV +13.0% (announces FDA approval for AzaSite; approval triggers $19 mln milestone payment), NTWK +7.8% (NTWK Pakistan subsidiary reports Q3 results).
Gapping Down
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: IBN -6.2% (co also to offer stock)... Other news: ATML -3.9% (reports findings of Audit Committee investigation of historical stock option practices). -
Market's Stratospheric Heights Bring Dangers
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/30/2007 8:38 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"If everyone is thinking alike then somebody isn't thinking.:-- George S. Patton
Most everyone is aware of the challenges facing the U.S. economy. First-quarter gross domestic product growth of just 1.3%, a weak dollar, inflationary pressures and a struggling housing market are all painfully obvious. Everyone is also quite aware of the unusual strength of the major market indices. In fact, the DJIA isn't just unusually strong; it is on the brink of a record-setting streak of positive days.
The end product is an unusual market that is hitting all-time highs while sentiment remains relatively sedate. The fact that the market has been led by a narrow group of big-cap stocks while breadth has been negative at times makes things even more confusing and difficult.
So what happens from here?
The traditional wisdom is that the market will continue to climb higher because we have much skepticism and doubt, which assures us that there is a big reserve of cash on the sidelines to support things. Those folks who have missed out will buy dips and/or will give in and do some buying as the market refuses to rest.
The question many are contemplating is whether the fact that the market has chosen to ignore so many economic worries and concerns will eventually eventual lead to a reversal once something occurs to shift the focus to the economy. The market is doing well right now by focusing on earnings and the fact that we have very strong momentum. The economy has been ignored and as long as stocks are going up that seems the smart thing to do.
The big danger for the market is that momentum will start to cool and the focus will shift to economic concerns and away from the strong earnings reports that we have enjoyed. With so many profits being racked up in parabolic fashion, the selloffs can be quite swift is there is a rush to protect gains.
For now, market players simply don't care about the economy. They are focused on earnings, which have been downright stellar. But earnings are coming to an end as we enter a seasonally weak time for the market that begins in May. With the indices overbought but plenty of folks not trusting the market, the conditions are ripe for some sharp profit-taking.
Of course, the big question is what might trigger that. If you have been anticipating that, you have likely been suffering some pain as the indices steadily roll higher. The problem is that when some selling does kick in, those who have been riding the wave higher may accelerate it.
We have a mildly positive open again this morning as merger and acquisition news boast European stocks. The wires this morning are rather quiet but we have some economic data coming up. Oil is down slightly this morning after a big gain on Friday and gold continue to trade higher.
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Construction Spending +0.2% vs +0.3% consensus
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Sulgesime LHV Pro all Phase Forward (PFWD) investeerimisidee, kuna hetkel on meie arvates positiivsed uudised aktsiahinda sisse arvestatud ning valuatsioon suhteliselt õiglane. Lisaks kui turg pakub kahe kuuga üle 20-protsendilist tootlust, siis oleks mõistlik see vastu võtta. Oleme madalamatelt tasemetelt ilmselt aktsiaid uuesti soetamas.
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Tehnilisest küljest on Nasdaq päris huvitavaks muutunud. Pildi järgi ootaks liikumist pigem alla.
