Börsipäev 7. mai
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Ülevõttudesaaga jätkub. Alcoa (AA) teatas täna, et teeb pakkumise omandada kõik Alcani (AL) aktsiad $73.25 eest ($58.6 raha ning 0.4108 Alcoa aktsiat), mis teeks kokkuvõttes hinnaks $33 miljardit. Jälgida tasub selles valguses ka CENX, ACH, SPSX ja ERS. Lisaks sai mõni aeg tagasi foorumis puudutatud teemat info lekkimise osas. Täna avaneb Armor Holdings (AH) ca 6% kõrgemal kuna BAE Systems on firmat üle võtmas - ilmselt teati sellest juba varem.
Prudential initiates Terex (TEX 80.01) with an Overweight and sets a $95 tgt, based on its broad, well-diversified global portfolio of construction and mining equipment and believes they are well positioned to take advantage of strong sustainable growth in global infrastructure and mining markets over at least the rest of the decade
Deutsche Bank initiates Delta Petroleum (DPTR 20.45) with a Buy and sets a $27 tgt, as they believe shares don't appear to fully discount major exploration optionality
Stifel upgrades Weingarten Realty (WRI 48.50) to Buy from Hold with a $56 tgt based on three factors: increased value due to aggressive private market asset pricing, accelerating earnings growth, and increasing visibility to results from the co's three-prong strategic initiatives to regain a sector multiple
Credit Suisse upgrades UAL (UAUA 35.57) to Outperform from Neutral and raises their tgt to $58 from $56 saying trimming low RASM/unprofitable flying naturally results in better relative profitability. The firm says UAL's network changes, which they firm believes the Street is missing, in conjunction with the recent pullback in shares make the risk reward dynamic appealing
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A Two-Tiered Market Gives Valuable Clues
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/7/2007 8:40 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark"Sometimes a majority simply means that all the fools are on the same side."
-- Claude McDonaldThe biggest problem that market players face right now is that "everyone" knows that we are due for a rest. No reasonable investor can contemplate the recent run in the DJIA and not think that some sort of pause or pullback would be a good thing. We all know that the market moves in cycles and the present cycle is becoming old.
Of course, when "everyone" believes the same thing, it is less likely to happen because they have already acted on their belief. If "everyone" believes the market is going to rest, then many have already acted on that belief, which means there is less unused selling potential to make it occur.
The problem with this rather simplistic analysis of sentiment is that we really have a two-tier market right now. Most of the market is not nearly as strong as the major indices would indicate; it is the mega-cap stocks in the DJIA that have given the impression that the market is becoming extended. Many market players have missed out on that move and hence are not feeling the exurburance that the indices seem to indicate.
Since May 3, 2006, the S&P 500 is up 14.9%. During that same period the stocks in the Investors Business Daily Top 100 are up 3.1%. This is the first time in the years I have been trading that anything like this occurred. Typically in a strong market it is the IBD stocks that have tended to lead.
These are the stocks with very strong earnings growth and good relative strength. Typically in good markets aggressive investors will flock to these stocks because they make bigger and quicker moves than the mega-cap Dow-type stocks.
I believe the underperformance in the IBD-type stocks is why sentiment has remained so sedate even as the indices keep hitting new all-time highs. The average aggressive investor simply isn't participating. He is holding things like GOOG, which hasn't done anything over the past year or so, rather than a Coca-Cola, which is up 20%-plus.
The big question is, how does this resolve itself? Can it persist for much longer? It certainly wouldn't seem that way as the big-caps become increasingly expensive on a comparative basis. We are already seeing the laughable notion that many of the mega-caps are still cheap because they are selling at PEs only twice their growth rate. Sooner or later valuation will be stretched enough that liquidity will be less of a driving force.
So do the IBD-type stocks accelerate and catch up to the big-caps, do the big-caps correct downward, or do we see some combination of the two? I don't know the answer but being keenly aware of that question will be very helpful as we move ahead. Something in the character of this market has to change because it is becoming increasingly narrow and relative valuations are becoming unreasonable.
We have a quiet start to the week. There are some more mergers and acquisitions on the wires once again but the mood is relatively contained. The big news this week is going to be the FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday at 2:15 p.m. EDT. No one is expecting the Fed to make any interest rate changes but the accompanying policy statement is going to be a market mover.
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Kui ma treider oleks, siis ma shordiks vist FNDT praegu.
Kuna treider pole, siis müüsin portfellist maha FNDT. Ilmselt paari päeva pärast ostan odavamalt tagasi. -
enam ei osta odavalt...usu mind
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Vipo, sõltub, mida odavaks lugeda :) Mingi 14..14.5 juurest oleks ma uuesti ostmas. Kuna nüüd mingi paar kuud pole uudiseid oodata (random M&A võibolla välja arvata, aga seda ei oska ju ennustada), siis vähemalt mina loodan soodsamat sisenemishinda näha. Ja isiklikult ootasin nendest tulemustest rohkem - mitte ühtegi CASHplusi müüki oli minu jaoks pettumus, ka teised süsteemidemüügid ei tundunud nii head, kui oleks lootnud. Kardan (või siis loodan?:), et ka turg arvab nii ja saan uuesti soodsalt osta.
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Tegemist oli suhteliselt in-line kvartaliga ning calli kuulates midagi väga üllatavat kõrvu ei jäänud. Firma on jätkuvalt tugevas postisioonis ning turutrendid ja SEPA toetavad äritegevust. Ilmselt ilma suuremate uudisteta lähiajal aktsias suurt tõusupotentsiaali ei näe kuna ollakse ka meie hinnasihile suhteliselt lähedale jõutud. Samas tegemist on potentsiaalika ettevõttega ning jätkuvalt on sektoris potentsiaali ülevõtuks, mistõttu kindlasti ideed sulgeda ei taha. Kasutaksin madalamaid tasemeid positsiooni suurendamiseks.
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Wedbush notes that FNDT exceeded Q1 expectations on better than expected top-line and raised guidance for the year. Firm believes FNDT was able to sell the S.E.P.A modules to its two large customers because these customers have some of the most advanced payments platforms based on FNDT's own implementations. This could provide even stronger references for FNDT when selling its core Global Pay Plus product, as well as the S.E.P.A product. They believe FNDT is well-positioned to benefit from strong growth in payment software, especially the regulatory-driven growth in Europe. Firm raises tgt to $18 from $15.50.
