Börsipäev 10. mai
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Morgan Stanley upgrades Century Aluminum (CENX 53.62) to Equal Weight from Underweight
UBS initiates Kaiser Aluminum (KALU 85.38) with a Buy and a $100 tgt.
Deutsche Bank initiates NetLogic Microsystems (NETL 31.50) with a Buy and sets a $40 tgt, based on significant growth opportunities, improving revenue/customer diversity, promising new products and regard their estimates as conservative, with all the growth being derived from new products vs. ~10% q/q growth driven by current products
Citigroup upgrades Georgia Gulf (GGC 17.71) to Buy from SellBofA upgrades NAVTEQ (NVT 37.38) to Buy from Neutral
Deutsche Bank initiates NVIDIA (NVDA 33.44) with a Buy and sets a $45 tgt, as they view '08 estimates as conservative and believe Vista should accelerate both PC growth rates and graphics attach rates, thus accelerating NVIDIA's growth rates
Oma tulemused on teatavaks teinud ka Cryptologic (CRYP), kaubeldes eelturul pea 10% madalamal. Prognoosid on koledad. 2007. aastal plaanitakse kasvu kõvasti investeerida.
CryptoLogic beats by $0.02; guides Q2 below consensus (29.71 ) : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.11 per share vs the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.09; revenues fell 27.4% year/year to $19.6 mln vs the $18.9 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.00, ex items vs. $0.10 consensus; sees Q2 revs of $15.5-16.5 vs. $19.65 mln consensus.
Kvartalitulemused on teatanud ka Six Flags (SIX), mis esmakordselt on korraga suutnud tõsta nii külastajate arvu kui külastaja tehtavaid kulutusi. Siiski on esimene kvartal aasta seisukohalt praktiliselt tähtsusetu. Kuid ära tuleb märkida, et võrreldes eelmise aastaga on tulemus genereeritud väiksema parkide töösoleku ajaga. Vaatame lähemalt ka season-passide müüki ning kommenteerime lähiajal Pro all.
Six Flags reports Q1 results better than consensus (6.45 +0.19) : Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $1.76 per share, $0.17 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($1.93); revenues rose 20.4% year/year to $50.7 mln vs the $46.3 mln consensus.
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Täna näitavad päris mitmed arvestatavad jaemüügiettevõtted üpriski kehvasid võrreldavate poodide müügistatistikat:
Wal-Mart (WMT) Apr same store sales -3.5%, Briefing.com consensus -1.2%; reports Q1 revs (47.93 ) : Co reports revenues for Q1 (Apr) of $85.4 bln vs. $85.77 bln Reuters Estimates consensus
JC Penney (JCP) reports April same store sales -4.7% vs Briefing.com consensus -0.4%
Federated (FD) same store sales -2.2%, Briefing.com consensus +1.1%; reports revs (43.82 ) : Co reports Q1 revs of $5.924 bln vs $6.041 bln consensus. Co sees May same store sales to be flat to down 2%/
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Shark tunnistab oma tänases kommentaaris, et põhjuseid languseks on ja pikaajaline karu Doug Kass on need kõik ka hästi välja toonud. Ometi vaatab turg hetkel neist kõrvale ning turuga on raske vaielda...
Ignore the Bears' Brilliant Reasoning
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/10/2007 8:22 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"Acceptance of what has happened is the first step to overcoming the consequences of any misfortune."
-- William James
Despite the fact that markets are hitting new highs, many investors are feeling quite unhappy because they feel they have not participated to any great degree. That feeling isn't all that surprising given that leadership has been quite different than anything we've seen in prior rallies over the past 10 years or so.
In addition, the malaise in the real estate market, concerns about an impending economic slowdown, high gas prices, and generally subdued consumer sentiment have kept many from embracing what would appear to be a market with a perfect storm of positives. Earnings have been good, merger and acquisitions news plentiful, and buckets-full of cash are at the ready to throw at any weakness.
Market players should be celebrating this wild momentum but many are grumbling about the lack of pullbacks and are dwelling on the mistake of staying too cautious as the Dow goes on a record-setting run.
So what do we do? As Professor James states above, the first step is to simply accept reality. The market is making a parabolic run and giving no indication of slowing. Maybe there are good reasons why this is unsustainable and just plain illogical, but the market is not a rational beast and trying to argue with it is totally useless.
Doug Kass over on Street Insight has lots of good reasons to support the idea that this market is going to fall apart, but the market's reaction is "Doug who?" Those great bearish arguments only matter when momentum dies and the trend turns down. You will only be frustrated if you try to anticipate that point.
Even if the market does weaken, the initial pullbacks are likely to be shallow and will entice underinvested bulls who are looking for entry points. We are very unlikely to see the market fall apart and go straight down immediately after hitting new highs. Any change in trend will take time to develop.
So accept the reality of this momentum-driven, parabolic move and don't expect it to end with a mighty crash. Things will eventual change but it will be a difficult transition over a fair amount of time. If you are too bearish too early it will likely cost you more than if you stay at least a little bullish too long.
We have a little pressure this morning as the focus shifts to retail sales, which look to come in a bit weak due in part to poor weather in April. In addition, calmer heads are contemplating the Fed interest decision this morning and may question whether the lack of any change in policy is a positive. -
Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: HSOA +20.0%, TOA +14.9%, PEIX +14.7% (also upgraded to Hold at Hambrecht), MRGE +12.1% (also announces Fusion aXigate order in France), SCI +11.5%, NKTR +10.7% (also upgraded to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley), BNE +6.75, MAIL +5.6%, CLAY +5.3%, HLS +5.2%, KG +4.6%, LOCM +3.5% (very light volume), BVF +3.3%, CNTY +3.3%, DK +2.9%, TFSM +1.8% (reports & confirms it is assessing strategic alternatives; also downgraded to Hold at Jefferies)... Retailers trading up on strong comps: JOSB +5.7%, ARO +1.8%, COST +1.8%... Other news: TRU +20.9% (commences cash tender offer for all units of beneficial interest of Torch Energy Royalty Trust), ENTG +11.3% (commences "Dutch auction" tender to purchase up to 20.4 mln shares between $11-12.25), CEA +10.6% & ZNH +3.1% (Air France to add routes throughout China; also CEA and Singapore Air in final talks on stake), SPAR +9.4% (subsidiary receives $107.6 mln in new Orders in Military Vehicles), GGC +4.8% (upgraded to Buy at Citi), CBI +4.1% (Cramer positive on stock), ONT +3.5% (announces agreement with C2 Microsystems), FWLT +1.6% (tgt raised to $129 at Stifel).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: IFON -20.2%, KNOT -16.9% (also downgraded to Sector Perform at CIBC), WFMI -12.0%, CRUS -9.5%, CRYP -9.2%, JACO -8.8%, WNG -8.7%, MEK -7.2%, EGY -6.9%, SIX -4.5%, PGS -4.5%, RMIX -4.4%... Retailers trading down on weak comps: ZUMZ -5.6%, URBN 5.5%, KIRK -4.6%, BEBE -4.5%, CHS -4.0%, PSUN -3.1%, GPS -2.3%, BONT -1.3%... Other news: DNDN -7.9% (downgraded to Sell at BofA; tgt cut to $4), RTP -5.7% & BHP -2.7% (UBS says RTP/BHP merger not illogical, not impossible, but unlikely), FNSR -4.5% (profit-taking after yesterday's move), BPHX -4.4% (names new CFO). -
huvitav, millest TOA 14.9%?
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Leiko,
Technical Olympic USA (TOA) teatas eile peale turgu oma tulemused. Ootusi löödi kasumi osas 12 sendiga ning kuigi eelmise aasta sama perioodiga kukkusid müügitulud 4.7% $600 miljoni peale, oli seda $487 miljonilisest konsensus-ootusest tublisti rohkem.
Samas juhtkond möönab sarnaselt teiste majade ehitajatega, et keerulised ajad ei ole veel möödas ning et suured varud on probleemiks:
We are concerned that housing inventories appear to be on the rise again in most of our markets, and sales in March and April were disappointing. This leads us to believe that we have not reached the point of stabilization as we had previously anticipated and that the difficult conditions could persist for the foreseeable future." -
tänud
