Börsipäev 11. mai
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JMP Securities initiates SMART Modular Technologies (SMOD 14.86) with a Strong Buy and sets a $20 tgt, as they believe the co is a unit volume growth theme without much dependence on commodity memory chip pricing due to its focus on design and manufacturing of specialty DRAM and flash memory modules in dense, high-speed, low-power configurations for high-growth markets
UBS upgrades Applied Materials (AMAT 19.18) to Buy from Neutral
Stifel initiates Carnival (CCL 48.13) and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL 41.86) with Buys and $58 and $51 tgts respectively. The firm says they believe shares are attractive at this point since cruising remains an underpenetrated vacation alternative, and they believe consensus EPS forecast already incorporate higher fuel prices and weakness in the Caribbean
Wolverine (WWW) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup
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Oliver,
heas mõttes küsin, et mille alusel sa need paar reitingu muutust või initiationit välja tood? Mida peaks lugeja sellest järeldama või mida nendega peale hakkama? -
Valin kas firmad, mis on meie foorumitest läbi käidud või siis agressiivsemad reitingumuutused/sihtide alandamised, tõstmised. Vahel mõni huvitavam sõnastus.
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tänud. võtsin natuke WWW shorti ...liiga palju tundub, et on selle initiationi peale üles biditud. samas on see risky M&A pärast ja võib olla on veel mingeid nüansse. vastassuunas possu võtmine võib noaga selga lüüa.
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Don't Count Out the Bulls
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/11/2007 8:30 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"One change leaves the way open for the introduction of others.
--Niccolo Machiavelli
The way to play momentum in the market is to ride the trend until something changes. The thinking is that because accurate timing is so difficult we shouldn't try to anticipate turning points, but should wait for them to actually occur before making any major moves. That seems like a pretty logical approach to the market but like most things in the stock market putting the theory into practice is not always so easy.
The issue investors must grapple with is at what point is there a sufficient change in momentum to warrant changing your market bias. Is a one-day drop of 1 1/2% or so after a parabolic move indicative of a change in momentum, or is it just a healthy little dose of profit taking that will shake out weak holders and set the stage for further advance?
If there was an easy answer to that question I'd be sitting on my 200-foot yacht in the Caribbean, but it is not at all clear. On the one hand, the selloff was a change, and as Machiavelli so astutely observes in the quote above, one change opens the door to another change. The bulls have had no reason at all to lock in gains and the bears have been petrified to even contemplate shorts but after a day like yesterday it becomes a bit easier to take those actions.
Furthermore, the end of earnings season and the associated positive news flow is coming to an end, the slower trading of the summer is fast approaching, and the Fed has clearly indicated we have slowing economic growth as well as continued concerns about inflation.
There are many good reasons for the market to start rolling over at this point and if you have been enjoying some good profits during this run, it certainly makes sense to take some off the table. As we all know, pigs eventually are slaughtered.
On the other hand if we step back and look at the bigger picture, the selling yesterday really was fairly minor in the bigger scheme of things. The trend is still solidly up and there are yet to be any major technical breakdowns. Over the past eight months or so every time it looked like the bears started to press, they ended up simply serving as fuel to the upside.
Given the relatively sedate bullish sentiment that has persisted, we must have some cash on the sidelines looking for entry points. The folks who were moaning and groaning about being on the sidelines while the DJIA was up 27 out of 30 days are finally getting their wish and the ability to buy some weakness. Can we really expect those dip buyers to disappear without a fight? -
Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: SYNM +17.9%, UEPS +9.1%, PRTS (also upgraded at RBC), VOLV +6.5%, NVDA +5.7% (also upgraded at Needham), ALU +3.0% (also upgraded at Credit Suisse)... CME raises their bid for BOT: CME +6.8%, BOT +1.9%, ICE +0.8%... Other news: KBH +5.2% (received a bid for its French subsidiary Kaufman & Broad), ALTI +4.4% (upgraded to Buy at First Albany).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: MAMA -15.5%, BRLC -13.6%, BSQR 12.0%, MOVI -11.2%, FL -10.4%, PRXI -9.3%, MED -8.7%, DNDN -7.8%, THQI -4.7%, GRS -4.5%... Other news: AMGN -3.9% (continued weakness with multiple broker downgrades following yesterday's ODAC panel recommendations), JAV -1.8% (prices 7.1 mln share offering at $6/share).
Tänased makroandmed - jaemüügi näitajad alla ootuste
Retail Sales -0.2% vs 0.4% consensus
Retail Sales ex-autos 0.0% vs 0.5% consensus
PPI MoM 0.7% vs 0.6% consensus
Core PPI MoM 0.0% vs 0.2% consensus
Rio Tinto(RTP) kuulujuttude tõttu tõusmas:
Daily Telegraph reports Rio Tinto was flying again in late morning trading overseas, climbing 8% as hopes of a bid from BHP Billiton (BHP) persisted. The shares ticked up overnight in Australia, where the miner has a dual-listing. It was aided by talk that venture capitalists could become involved too, and that even billionaire Warren Buffett could take a holding in the miner. -
Bloombergis on huvitav artikkel, mis räägib, et Hiina on kohaliku aktsiaturu jahutamise abinõuna lubamas kohalikel pankadel esimest korda osta aktsiaid ka mujalt turgudelt.
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Abesiki, palju lossi tuli WWW pealt?
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nõk üle poole nullis kinni (teenustasud kahjum) ...ülejäänud jäärapäiselt hoian
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ülejäänud osa pealt 9 centi lossi. kokkuvõttes debiilne treid.
