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Börsipäev 17. mai

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  • Eilset majadeehitamisega seotud statistikat kommenteerib AG Edwards päris hästi, oodates suuremaid hinnalangusi edaspidi:

    • For the third consecutive month, single-family housing starts increased. April starts were up 1.6% fromMarch, while March starts were up a revised 1.5% from February.

    • Given that the industry is beset by what is arguably its largest inventory glut ever, it is hard to interpret thepast few months’ data as anything but a negative. Moreover, excess inventory aside, the industry likelycontinues to overbuild (for more normalized conditions) given its current 1.225 million annualized start pace.Given the 6% decline in April single-family permits, the builders obviouslyare now attempting to address their prior optimism with regard to anticipated homebuyer demand for the ’07selling season.

    • In sum, we expect continued home price discounting that will in all likelihood accelerate as the yearprogresses leading to further charges and book value impairments. Hopefully, at least, the arrival of fairweather will offset in part the gloom for all involved in the homebuilding industry. Investors included. Mostlikely, however, it will be a brief respite before the dog days of August bring further capitulation for theindustry as panic settles in for would be existing home sellers prior to the start of the ’08 school year.


    Prudential upgrades MGM Mirage (MGM 62.37) to Overweight from Neutral and maintains their $77 tgt, based on valuation

    Stifel upgrades priceline.com (PCLN 55.22) to Buy from Hold with a $67 tgt noting since reporting another outstanding quarter, priceline.com shares have sold off by 15% with lack of good reason. The firm says the upgrade is based on Europe; domestic stability and overall hotel concentration; valuation; and mgmt.

    Stifel downgrades Caterpillar (CAT 75.95) to Hold from Buy following a strong October-to-May run as the stock may not participate in the growth-stock led market they expect in the next 6-12 months, exspecially if the profitable U.S market for CAT weakens further.

    BofA initiates VCLK with a Buy and a $35 tgt saying believe VCLK is well positioned for continued strong secular online ad growth. The firm says the diversity of advertising channels and pricing models (C.P.M, C.P.C, C.P.A, C.P.L) successfully addresses many advertiser needs.

  • Gapping Up
    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: HPQ +1.1%... M&A: ACXM +18.4% (to be acquired by Silver Lake and ValueAct Capital for $27.10 per share), TFSM +4.5% (to be acquired by WPP for $11.75 per share)... Other news: DUSA +32.5% (receives Orphan Drug Designation for Levulan PDT to treat esophageal dysplasia), CTIC +5.0% (receives FDA special protocol assessment comments on the design of Phase III Trial of Pixantrone), GERN +6.0% (its scientists and collaborators differentiate human embryonic stem cells into insulin-producing islet-like clusters), ISIS +4.0% (announces positive Phase 2 data for ISIS 301012), SUNW +3.9% (announces $3 bln share buyback).

    Gapping Down
    Gapping on news: MDTH -5.1% (priced additional 4 mln share offering at 33.07), DNN -4.2% (updates Canadian mining and production plans), MU -2.4% (files for a $1.1 bln convertible notes offering).
  • Frequent Reversals Set up a Trend Change
    05/17/2007 8:31 AM
    By Rev Shark


    "A leader has to 'appear' consistent. That doesn't mean he has to be consistent."

    -- James Callaghan

    The most prominent characteristic of the market action over the past few days has been the number of intraday reversals. For many months now not only has the market consistently moved higher but there has been little intraday uncertainty. If we opened strong we stayed that way, and if we opened weak we tended to turn up very quickly.

    Over the past week we have seen the Nasdaq reverse downward three times after good openings but then yesterday we opened weak and ended up closing strong. That reversal surprised the folks who were starting to become a bit more cautious and probably produced some short squeezes as well.

    So the question we face this morning is whether the positive intraday reversal in the Nasdaq yesterday afternoon signals that the inconsistent action of the days prior to that was just irrelevant noise or whether the reversal yesterday was further evidence that the market is becoming increasingly inconsistent.

    One of the things that tends to occur at market turns is that emotions swing back and forth to a greater degree. The bulls who have been enjoying the ride become a bit more uncertain when we reverse down but they quickly become excited once again when we have a reversal back up like we did yesterday.

    The bears become energized when we have a few intraday failures but then become discouraged when caught by a strong finish like yesterday. Eventually these emotional swings lead to greater uncertainty and instability and that leads to turns.

    If the market keeps reversing intraday we have to watch much more carefully for a change in trend. It may just be a temporary hiccup as we regain momentum and continue to climb to the sky, but the intraday shifts are clearly indicative of some sort of increase in emotions and that can quickly develop into something more.

    We have a flat start to the day. Overseas markets were positive but relatively quiet. Gold and oil are bouncing back after some selling yesterday but overall things are fairly quiet.
  • Vana pull Cramer usub, et jaemüüjad on järgmised, kes tõusta võiksid. Põhjuseks parem ilm ja et Federated (FD) oma tulemuste peale üllatavalt vähe kukkus. Samuti vihjed Föderaalreservi võimalikule intressimäärade alandamisele. Need väited kokku ei tundu just kuigi veenvad, seda enam, et reaalsuses on jaemüüjad väiksemate läbimüügi numbrite all ägisemas ning aprilli SSS numbrid olid enamusel poodidel koledad. RTH pole veebruarikuu lõpu tippudestki kõrgemale tõusnud, vastupidiselt ülejäänud turule.
  • Usume, et Pro all antud ülevaade varasema investeerimisidee CRYP'i tulemustest aitab paremini lahti lõhkuda viimase kvartali tulemuste juures sisaldunud 'müra'. Samuti sisaldab meie nägemust, millisel hinnatasemel muutuks ettevõtte aktsiad meile taas huvitavaks.
  • Maagaasi varud tõusid 95 bcf-i võrra, mis vastab oodatud 97 bcf-ile. Tugevaid liikumisi data peale ei järgnenud.
  • Miks just maagaasivarude numbrit spetsiaalselt välja toote?
  • Momentum, ega otsest põhjust polegi, et miks just see ja tihti olen ka nafta varude näite välja toonud. Energiavarud mõjutavad otseselt suure hulga aktsiate ja naftahinna käekäiku ning need omakorda juba ka kogu turgu. Kui talve lõpp muutus külmaks ja gaasivarud olid kiiresti vähenemas (samamoodi järelikult ka söe varud, kuigi söe varusid iganädalaselt ei avaldata), siis peale külma aprilli on varud viimasel 3 nädalal eelmise aasta näitudest taas tugevamini kasvanud. 5-aasta keskmistest varudest ollakse hetkel 17% kõrgemal.
  • Kuuldavast on Douglas Kass oma IYR shordi katnud...
  • HPQ on sarnaselt DE-ga suurepärastele tulemustele alla müüdud - põhjuseks asjaolu, et head tulemused on aktsiahinda juba sisse arvestatud. Praegusel turul on tõsiselt keeruline üllatust valmistada...
  • praegusel turul pole enam reaalsusega asja, küsimus on selles, millal see kohale jõuab, kas oli see üleeile ja eile väike põrge, gurude 1.se kvartali tehingute suhtes, või on veel agaraid enne suve tipust ostmas? kahtlen selles!
  • Mul on üks loll küsimus, kui palju suured kauplejad(majad) jälgivad graafikuid?
  • upser, kauplejad kindlasti jälgivad. Majad ei võrdu kauplejad ja enamus majadest on ilmselt oma tehnilised (TA) osakonnad kinni pannud.
  • mis mõttes tehn. osakonnad kinni pannud? vabandan rumala küs. pärast?
  • mina vaatan aint graafikuid ja tundub, et täna tleb veel ilus miinus:)! aga samas olen tähele pannud, et enne opts. reedet turud ei liigu! kas ka teistel?
  • ilmselt peegeldab TA osakondade kinnipanek seda, et usku nendesse ei olnud. Mõnda aega tagasi ikka kostus ka tehnilisi kommentaare, aga praegu kuuleb neid väga haruharva...

    Üldiselt enne optsioonireedet turud väga agressiivselt ei kipu liikuma tõesti.
  • upser

    Tehniline süvaanalüüs on otsustusprotsessis väga väikese osakaaluga, kuid graafikud on siiski ka insitutsioonide oluline töövahend. Tooksin välja staarkaupleja Ken Wolfi viimases artiklis toodud lause:

    "Institutions and hedge funds trade more technically, so you will see entries off of moving averages and odd numbers, as well as steadier momentum. Knowing who is on the other side of your trade is important."

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