Börsipäev 18. mai
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Aasia turud miinuses. Nikkei –0.6%, Hang Seng –0.4%. Euroopa see-eest plussis – nii FTSE kui ka DAX üle +0.5%. Ka USA futuurid on poole protsendi jagu plussis.
Spekulatiivset laadi aktsiaturuga Hiina otsustas reedel suurendada jeeni kauplemisulatust varasema 0.3% pealt 0.5% peale. Samuti otsustati, et laupäevast tõstetakse deposiidi intresse(3.06% peale) ning laenumäärasid(6.57% peale). Juunist tõstetakse veel pankade nõutavaid reservimäärasid. Sammud on vajalikud Hiinas lokkava raha likviidsuse kärpimiseks
Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: INTU +11.0%, FMCN +6.8%, RDY +5.6%, TOPT +4.4%... M&A: AQNT +78.3% (to be acquired by Microsoft for $66.50/share... up in sympathy: DGIT +9.4%, VCLK +9.0%, THK +8.1%, VSCN +6.2%, MCHX +4.2%, ONSM +3.3%), TONE +32.0% (to be acquired by CapitalSource for $34.46/share)... Other news: CHIP +17.8% (profiled in BusinessWeek Online), OMR +41.7% (Deep-sea explorers discover possible richest shipwreck treasure in history - Fox News), TRMP +14.8% (announces status of strategic review), APKT +3.8% (upgraded to Buy at Cantor), BWLD +3.4% (to acquire Las Vegas franchised restaurants, announces 2 for 1 split), CY +2.9% (bullish comments from Cramer), -
What It Takes to Move the Small-Caps
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/18/2007 8:40 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times."
-- Everett M. Dirksen
With the Nasdaq flip-flopping more than a presidential candidate lately, a high level of flexibility has been an easy way to be whipsawed. We have come very close to what looked like the beginning of a breakdown and then bounded higher as dip buying and short squeezes kicked in. If you have been reacting to every little change in the Nasdaq it is almost guaranteed you have ended up on the wrong side of a trade.
That sort of volatility isn't that unusual but what has made things much more difficult this time is the unusual action in the DJIA. It is difficult to contemplate the broad market in a totally objective fashion when you have a parabolic move in the mega-caps, which is practically begging for a dramatic reversal at some point. The DJIA can certainly continue to go higher and higher but it is becoming so technically extended that no one can reasonably say that it isn't going to correct hard at some point.
This unprecedented move in the DJIA along with the media focus on it colors the thinking about the broader market. Because the DJIA is so extended and in need of a consolidation it is easy to extrapolate and believe the whole market is in the same condition.
The reality is that the small-cap indices are in the same place they were in mid-February and not even close to being extended the way the DJIA is. The problem we have is trying to figure out if the divergence will close and if so how that will take place.
From a trader's standpoint, the ideal situation would be for the rest of the market to play catch up with the DJIA while the DJIA consolidates and goes nowhere for a while. That would give us some great trading in the broader market and help the DJIA work off its extended condition.
The problem with this scenario is that small-caps are just not showing signs of momentum and that is probably because they are much more sensitive to the domestic economy than the mega-caps driving the DJIA. A big reason for the two-tiered nature of the market recently is that big stocks are benefiting for the strong international economy while smaller stocks are dealing with a much weaker economy in the US.
Given this economic disparity, how can we expect the small-caps to play catch-up? That is the dilemma we face and how that resolves itself is going to be the story of the market this summer.
At the moment, small-caps are sitting on the brink of a technical breakdown. The refusal of the DJIA to correct at all is probably helping to hold them up to some degree but my concern is that if the DJIA pulls back at all, the small-caps will continue their relative underperformance and break down even further.
I'm staying flexible and hoping to get a chance to be aggressively long in the small-cap sector as the divergence with the DJIA starts to correct, but frankly I'm not so sure that we will see this happen in a way that most traders would like to see.
We have a positive start on the way this morning. Asian stocks were weak as China once again raised rates, increased bank reserves and made some moves to cool its hot market. Europe was higher on more merger and acquisitions news. Gold is bouncing after being hit hard lately and oil is trying to tick up again as well. -
Üks kommentaar, mis täna silma jäi, tuleb RayJay’lt ja puudutab James Riverit (JRCC). Nimelt usub RayJay, et James River on sõitmas pärivoolu ning tõstab reitingu „outperform” peale varasemalt „market performilt.” Hinnasihiks 12-18 kuu jooksul $17.
Põhipunktidena tuuakse välja asjaolu, et peale võla refinantseerimist veebruaris on ettevõtte likviidsusprobleemid seljataga. Nähtavasti on ka müügisurve aktsiatele vähenenud – üheks likvideerijaks oli kindlasti ka Pirate Capital, kelle osalus on võrreldes algsega hetkel tunduvalt väiksem. Edaspidi võib toetust pakkuda ka erakordselt suur lühike positsioon aktsiates.
Kuid fundamentaalse poole pealt ütleb firma, et söehinnad on stabiliseerunud, tuues välja taas pakkumise/nõudluse dünaamika, millele oleme korduvalt tähelepanu juhtinud ka endise LHV Pro idee BTU puhul. Lisaks usub Ray Jay tugevat hinnatõusu Central Appalachia (CAPP) regioonis (kus James River tegutseb) 2008. ja 2009. aastal.
Lisaks tuuakse välja asjaolu, millele oleme meiegi tähelepanu juhtinud: James Riveri lepingud on suures mahus avatud. Hetkel on JRCC 20% ulatuses CAPP sütt ja umbes 1/3 kogupositsioonist lepingutega kindlustatud, mis tähendab, et tõusvate hindade puhul suudetakse suur osa toodangust realiseerida kõrgema marginaaliga.
Eriti meeldis mulle järgmine kommentaar: If youre bullish on coal prices and looking for a small cap idea, James Riveris your leveraged option. Given its wide open CAPP position and tiny relative share count, James River is one of the most leveraged ways to play potentially higher coal prices. If you are bearish on coal, stay away, as James River would be the last coal stock to own in such a scenario. We obviously fall on the bullish side of this argument.
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Upser rääkis eilses 17. mai börsipäeva foorumis fenomenist, et enne optsioonireedet väga suuri liikumisi tavaliselt ei ole. Annan ka omapoolse selgituse sellele, mis ehk aitab seda fenomeni paremini mõista.
Miks turud ei kipu enne optsioonireedet liikuma ehk miks aktsiad kipuvad ümmarguste numbrite juures optsioonireedeti lõpetama? Mina olen seda tõlgendanud niimoodi, et kui näiteks aktsial X on ostetud kõige rohkem mai optsioone (nii call kui put omi) strike hinnaga 30 ja aktsia hind ka selle läheduses mõni nädal enne optsiooni lõppemise kuupäeva kauplemas on, siis just selle numbri peale on ka suur tõenäosus hinnal liikuda (kui loomulikult hinda mõjutavad olulised sündmused kõrvale jätta). Kui hind on enne optsioonide lõppemist allpool 30, siis müüvad puttide omanikud oma optsioonid ning optsiooni väljakirjutaja ostab positsiooni katmiseks vastavalt aktsiaid. Kui hind on üle 30, siis call optsiooni omanik müüb oma calli enne expirationit ning algne optsiooni väljakirjutaja müüb alusvara oma positsiooni neutraliseerimiseks. Niimoodi pendeldades settle’dataksegi tihtipeale ümmarguste numbrite juures.
Loomulikult on võimalik ka see, et osa optsioone on välja kirjutatud hedge fondide poolt, kes mängivad suuna peale ning oma riske ei kindlusta. Samuti on võimalik, et sama maja kirjutab välja nii call kui put optsioone ning reaalsed tehingud alusvaraga viiakse läbi oluliselt väiksemas mahus, sest put'id ja call'id justkui neutraliseerivad teineteist. Teatud nägemuse toimuvast pakub siintoodud selgitus sellegipoolest.
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tähelepanek, kui ülevalt avaneb, siis all lõpetab, ei tea, kas tänase optsreede kohta ka kehtib?
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Konkreetseid numbreid või testide tulemusi keegi näidata ei taha? Või lihtsalt tundub?
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Dick Green Briefingu meeskonnast kommenteerib iroonia ja naljaga pooleks, kuidas turg tõuseb intressimäärade langetamise ootuses.
Hopes that the Fed will lower rates sometime later this year also boosted stocks. Perhaps the best thing for the market would be if the Fed never cut rates again. Then the stock market could rise steadily on expectations of an imminent rate cut that never comes. It has now been about ten months since the stock market rally started.
