Börsipäev 24. mai
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Eilne tähistas USAs kolmandat päeva, mil turg enne sulgemist alla müüdi ja seda taaskord päris agressiivselt. Toon siinkohal välja ka väikese sarnasuse veebruarikuise languse eel joonistunud mustriga:
Huvitavaid nõrkuse märke oli veelgi. Näiteks see, kuidas Targeti (TGT) üllatavalt tugevate tulemuste peale müüdi aktsia suhteliselt agressiivselt alla.
Tegemist ei ole küll otsese soovitusega, kuid toon välja asjaolu, et Network Appliance (NTAP) kaupleb eilsete esimese kvartali prognooside valguses 8 puntki madalamal. Üldiselt läks ettevõtte konverentsikõne suhteliselt hästi – vastus oli igale küsimusele olemas. Järelturul $30 tase hoidis ning valuatsioon saab ilmselt analüütikutelt tähelepanu - arvestades, et juhtkond jättis kogu aasta prognoosid muutmata, võib olla potentsiaali põrkemänguks ($30-29 tasemelt). Eriti huvitav on asjaolu, et konkurenditele juhtkonna sõnul alla ei jäädud vaid pigem lükati tellimuste tähtaegu edasi ning hiljem loodetakse need täita: have 'plenty of opportunity to cover the forecast that I gave you'; says problem is visibity; 'I can guarantee you it (shortfall) was not competitive'
Toon siinkohal välja lõigu DB kommentaarist, kes soovitab nõrkust kasutada ostukohana:
Lowering estimates and price target to $42, maintain Buy:
Weaker bookings (soft March, strong April) is not indicative of a changes in NTAP’s competitive position. In fact, NTAP experienced improving win rates vs.HP and consistent win rates vs. EMC (the 2 most frequent competitors). Further, we believe NetApp can maintain mid-20s+ growth in a constrained spending environment. An improvement in IT spending would provide upside to our new estimates.
Weak 1Q backlog build (~$70M below plan) resulted from soft US corp demand & related slow pipeline conversion. Despite near-term macro weakness, our fundamental thesis remains intact. We believe NTAP is attractive at current levels (trading $30 after hrs) Buy.
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Toll Brothers (TOL) teatab teise kvartali tulemused ning kasumiprognoose ei taheta taas anda:
"Given the uncertainty surrounding sales paces, and market direction and, thus, the potential for and size of future impairments, we are not comfortable giving full earnings guidance at this time. However, we expect to deliver between 6,100 and 6,900 homes in FY 2007 and expect to produce total home building revenues (including percentage of completion revenues) of between $4.26 billion and $4.88 billion in FY 2007. For our third quarter, which ends July 31, 2007, we expect to deliver between 1,400 and 1,800 homes and produce home building revenues of between $990 million and $1.28 billion."
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mis makro tulemusi täna turule tuleb?
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Täna
Kestvuskaupade tellimused 8:30 ET
Consensus 1,2%
Uute majade müük 10:00 ET
Consensus 860 000 -
need peavad väga head tulemused tulema, mis turgu veel korraks tõstaksid, arvan mina.
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Initial Claims 311K vs 305K consensus
Kestvuskaubad +0.6% vs +0.9% consensus
Kestvuskaubad (välja arvatud transport) +1.5% vs +0.6% consensus -
Umbes kuu aega tagasi lugesin üht järjekordset artiklit USA kinnisvaraturust ning sattusin sellele täna uuesti peale. Kuigi ‘ülehinnatud’ regioonide hulgas figureerivad ammutuntud piirkonnad, leiab siit päris huvitavat lähenemist:
Using the 40 largest metro areas, we started by estimating a "price-to-earnings" ratio for each market. (Like the P/E of a stock, this value attempts to measure the price a homeowner would pay for one dollar of return.) Using data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the U.S. Census Bureau and the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, we took each market's median home price and divided it by annual rents minus taxes and insurance for those properties. The average P/E for the 40 markets is 28.
We incorporated a second metric: an affordability index. Calculated from National Home Builder Association and Wells Fargo (nyse: WFC - news - people ) data, the affordability score is the percent of the population who can afford to buy the median-priced home, assuming a 6% mortgage rate. So which markets are in bubble territory? Look for a high P/E ratio, low affordability, low income growth and a high cost of living.
Kalleimad elupiirkonnad: San Diego(5% elanikest suudavad keskmise hinnaga kodu osta); Miami; Sacramento, Calif.; San Francisco(7.5% majadest ostetavad keskmise sissetulekuga inimestele); Washington, D.C.; Honolulu; New York; Los Angeles; and Boston. San Jose, Calif.
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Aasia turud enamuses punases: Vietnam –2.5%, Tai –1.5%, Indoneesia –1.2%, India –1%, Malaisia –1%,Singapur –0.8%, Hiina (CSI 300) –0.5%. USA eelturul kauplemas eilsel sulgemistasemel.
Bloombergi raadiot kuulates jäi kõrva taha eilsest Greenspani märkusest Hiina turule ajendatult arutelu Hiina aktsiaturu valuatsioonist. Põhiseisukohaks oli, et sealne aktsiaturg ilmutab kahtlemata mullituru märke ning investorid peaksid sealt väljuma (või isegi kaaluma lühikeseks minemist). Kuigi mulli aeglane tühjenemine oleks riigi majanduse seisukohalt väga oluline, näitab ajalugu, et sedasorti kuumad lood lähevad reeglina ikka pauguga lõhki. Selle stsenaariumi vastu vaidlejate põhiseisukohaks hiigellikviidsus ja eredad pikaajalised väljavaated Hiina riigi jaoks. -
Despite Greenspan Jawboning, Still Heading Up
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/24/2007 8:24 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade?"
-- Alan Greenspan in speech on Dec. 5, 1996
When Greenspan made his infamous "irrational exuberance" speech in 1996, the Nasdaq was trading around 1300. It then proceeded to go up about 388% before it finally topped out around 5050 in March 2000. As far as market timing goes, that certainly looks like a very poor call.
Yesterday Greenspan commented that the China stock market, which is up 90% so far this year, is "clearly unsustainable,'' and that "there is going to be a dramatic contraction at some point.''
Should we ignore Greenspan this time because of his poor timing way back in 1996? Back then he probably had a different agenda because his primary job was to manage the economy and keep inflation in check so perhaps there was something else at work than a desire to predict market movements.
Greenspan's circumstances are quite different now and many are wondering if he is missing the limelight and making dramatic comments that he knows will gain attention. It isn't any great stretch at all to conclude that there is very likely to be some painful pullbacks in China at some point given the level of speculation there. The issue here is all about timing and there simply is no way of knowing if Greenspan is identifying a turning point.
Regardless of the jawboning, the indices both here and in China remain in solid uptrends. There still is no clear technical reason to hit the panic button and head for the safety of cash. We certainly want to make sure we are locking in some gains as opportunities arise and we may want to temper our buying a bit rather than jump on every minor pullback, but the market continues to look fine right now.
The intraday reversal yesterday, while unpleasant and a technical negative, was really very minor when you step back and look at the bigger picture. It could develop into something much worse but there is no way to determine that now. We simply need to keep an open mind and consider the action. If we see some failed bounces and a continued slowing in momentum then we get more defensive. However, given how often this market has come back from the brink in recent months, we should be watching for dip buyers to make at least a few tries at re-igniting the momentum.
We have a weak start to the day as overseas markets are mostly lower. We have some economic data this morning that may shake things up a bit.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: SAFM +16.3%, OVEN +8.6%, GYMB +8.5%, PACT +8.0%... Other news: MITI +42.0% (co and Nycomed enter into exclusive worldwide collaboration to develop and commercialize anti-GM-CSF antibodies), LJPC +33.5% (reports Riquent well tolerated in three studies at International Lupus Congress), YMI +10.0% (reports successful regulatory reviews of nimotuzumab manufacturing), TASR +7.0% (announces three domestic orders and one export order), EXEL +5.9% (files IND application for XL019), GLS +4.4% (mentioned positively by Cramer), VOD +2.4% (continuation of yesterday's strength).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: NTAP -17.7%, NWY -7.7%, CA -6.1%, SNPS -6.0% (also downgraded at HSBC), MYL -4.5%, ZUMZ -4.3%... Other news: XRTX -8.4% (down in sympathy with NTAP, which makes up ~50% of XRTX revs), ONT -5.2% (continued profit taking following yesterday's reversal), BRLC -4.6% (prices 25.6 mln share offering at $5.75/share), ESLR -3.2% (prices a 15 mln share common stock offering at $8.25/share), DLB prices a 7 mln share common stock offering at $32/share), BRCD -2.0% (down in sympathy with NTAP). DNDN -2.3% (downgraded at JMP Securities). -
Majademüük pakub üllatust:
New Home Sales 981K vs 860K consensus; 16.2% m/m
Uute majade müügi graafik 18. mai seisuga:
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Iran Pres says Israel will be uprooted if it attacks Lebanon - DJ
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Viimase aja Cloroxi (CLX) saaga jätkuks ka mõni kommentaar. Aktsiaga kauplemine oli mõnda aega peatatud ning viskasin kiire pilgu peale ka kommentaaridele, mida ettevõte jagas. Sügavuti ei ole jõudnud veel tungida, kuid esmapilgul midagi uut sealt ei tulnud. Kommenteeriti tarnekanalite struktureerimist ning produktiivsuse tõstmist kuid lähiaega (2008) kommenteeriti suhteliselt sarnastes toonides nagu varemgi - orgaaniline käibekasv 3-5% ning EPS $3.52-$3.67. Lisaks räägiti sisendikulude survest ja ülevõttudest, mis peavad olema kasumit toetavad mõistliku aja jooksul (ning ilmselt ka mõistliku hinnaga, mida praegu on suhteliselt keeruline saavutada). Arvestades, et spekuleeriti lausa ülevõtule, siis praegune sõnavõtt tundus tagasihoidlik ning pigem pettumuseks.
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Tänud, Oliver. Kui Pro all tuleks veel paari sõnaga seisukoht selle kohta, kas eelmise aasta lõpus võetud positsiooni tasub Pro meelest jätkuvalt hoida või on aeg see sulgeda, siis oleks kohe väga hästi! Tänud ette!
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huvitav, kas pidu selleks korraks läbi`?
