Börsipäev 25. mai
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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WSJ-s täna artikkel teemal, et Meditsiini Instituut arvab, FDA peaks reguleerima tubakatööstust ja välja tulema plaaniga, mis vähendaks nikotiinitasemeid sigarettides. Aruandes palutakse Kongressil ja Presidendil anda FDA-le vastavad volitused, et viimane saaks vastu võtta nikotiini vähendamiseks vajalikud standardid. FDA juht Andrew von Eschenbach oli selle plaani suhtes aga skeptiline, arvates, et kui nikotiinitasemeid vähendada, muudavad suitsetajad ka vastavalt oma suitsetamisharjumusi (ehk suurendavad suitsetamist), et säilitada tavapärast ainest sõltuvuse taste. Samuti palus Instituut tõsta tubakale kehtestatud makse, keelata siseruumides suitsetamine ning võtta vastu kõik meetmed, mis aitaksid vähendada suitsetamist. Tubakatööstuse ettevõtetest võib mainida MO, RAI, BTI, VGR jt.
Coca-Cola kinnitas, et on üle võtmas Glaceau-d, makstes ettevõtte eest $4.1 miljardit. Tehing aitab tõsta Coca-Cola kiirelt kasvavat mineral- ja vitamiinjookide segmenti ning konkureerida edukamalt Pepsi Co-ga.
Nasdaq langes eile 4. päeva järjest, mis teeb sellest pikima languseseeria alates veebruarist. Euroopas aktsiad teist päeva järjest minuses. Suurbritannias oodatust suurem majanduskasv ning Saksamaa tarbijausalduse tõus tõstsid investorite kartusi, et keskpangad on sunnitud intresse tõstma.
Aasia on eilse USA turu kukkumise valguses täna kirju. Roheluses on Hiina turg, kusjuures eile ca 8% kukkunud Shanghai B indeks tegi eilse kukkumise peaaegu et tagasi. Sarnaselt India ca 0.9% plusspoolel. USA kaupleb hetkel eelturul ca +0.3%. Olemasolevate majade müüginumbreid on oodata kell 17.00 Eesti aja järgi. -
Briefingus tuuakse välja graafik, mis näitab, et S&P500 langes eile 20-päeva eksponentsiaalsele keskmisele, mis on seni aprilli tõusust alates kukkumistel alati pidanud.
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Üldiselt sigaretitööstus on sellised karmistuvad nõuded omaks võtnud ning lisaks tänu kallinevatele hindadele ennustatakse müügi vähenemist, mida siiski peaks mõnevõrra kompenseerima rahvastiku juurdekasvust tulenev suitsetajate hulga suurenemine.
Aga mis puutub nikotiinitasemete vähendamisse, siis kuhugi maani on see mõistlik, samas Altria on öelnud umbes midagi sellist, et ega keegi sellisel juhul enam ei suitsetaks. Kuigi Vector Group on oma madala nikotiinisisaldusega ning ilma nikotiinita Questiga turul olnud 2003. aastast, siis minu arvates jääb ta ikkagi nishitooteks. Nelja aastaga on jõutud kuude osariiki, mis on vähe. Lisaks öeldakse, et tegemisti ei ole sigarettidega, mis aitaks suitsemisest loobuda, kuid see vist rohkem kohtuasjade ennetamiseks. Liiatigi konkureerib ta premium sigarettide hinnaklassis ning laia nõudluse kasvu mina ei näe. Kõige parem on ikka maha jätta päevapealt, mitte aeglaselt susserdada. Proovitud variant :)
Aga kes sigaretitööstuse tulevikuväljavaateid kardab, võib osa saada tubakatööstuse ainukesest kasvavast segmendist (nagu UST ise ütleb) - moist smokeless tobacco. -
Mõni päev tagasi kommenteeris AG Edwards Altria (MO) Taboka smokeless tobacco testi, mis läks suhteliselt kehvasti. Vaatamata sellele usub firma, et PM USA plaanib sellesse segmenti siseneda.
Although small in size compared to cigarettes, thesmokeless category remains one of the few growingsegments in the U.S. tobacco industry, increasingvolumes by a 6% CAGR over the past 5 years.
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One Bad Day Won't Kill This Rally
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/25/2007 8:25 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
If we don't change, we don't grow. If we don't grow, we aren't really living.
-- Gail Sheehy
Although days like yesterday can be quite painful if you are holding a lot of long positions, ultimately it's healthy for the market. The nature of the market is such that nothing lasts forever. When a trend lasts too long, it ultimately causes some pain for those who forget that the market is simply a series of up-and-down cycles. Change is the only constant, and rather than fight it, we should welcome and embrace it.
Was yesterday's ugly action a signal that a major market change is taking place? It is too early to jump to that conclusion. In fact, it may actually give us more upside in the short term as it shook out weak hands, sucked in anxious bulls and set up conditions for a move higher driven by underinvested bulls and squeezed shorts.
What we have to watch for at this point is how powerful the buying is on a bounce. Do market players keep on buying as we bounce or do they start looking for exit points so they can cut some of their long exposure? Do the bears look to establish short positions on strength or do they run for cover yet again?
To complicate matters, we have the three-day Memorial Day weekend in front of us. Trading around holidays typically has a bullish bias. That is widely known, and even those who are negative about the market will let the bulls have their fun before they go back to work on the dark side.
In addition to the positive holiday bias we have the additional factor lately of the possibility of big acquisitions and mergers over the weekend. Market players are afraid to be out of the market to kick off a new week because of the chances that a mega-deal has been negotiated that will cause yet another frenzy of buying.
In the short term, the chances of a bounceback from yesterday's selling is quite high. However, if it is muted and lacks real vigor, that is going to be a sign that we could see another bout of selling next week after the holiday trading and merger speculation cools off.
The market has been so strong for so long that the topping process will take some time to play out. There are still plenty of folks who are anxious to make money on the long side, and dips are likely to be viewed more as opportunities than as a precursor of danger. Don't get too bearish too fast, even if you believe the market is doomed. There is still too much momentum for things to fall apart without a fight.
We have a bounce brewing this morning. Overseas markets were very mixed and there isn't much news out there. Gold and oil are trading up after being hit hard yesterday.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: VRGY +11.8%, LNUX +11.3%, RRGB +9.9%, ARUN +8.2%, VIP +3.3%... Other: CUP +18.0% (entered into an exclusivity agreement with a third party regarding a potential transaction), IDMI +14.0% (initiated with a Buy & $11 tgt at Canort Fitzgerald), LMRA +7.6%, BIVN +7.5% (highlighted in BusinessWeek's Inside Wall Street), RFMD +4.7% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), DCX +3.5%, CCE +3.3% (KO to buy Glaceau for $4.2 bln, CCE manufactures/distributes KO beverages), BOBJ (WestLB raises BOBJ to Buy), KO +1.4% (co to buy Glaceau for $4.2 bln).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down on news: SLFI -35.7% (co reports its investigation has revealed evidence of a sophisticated loan scheme), WAVX -12.0% (to sell 7.3 mln shares of stock at $2.05 per share), NDAQ -5.8% (to buy Nordic exchange O.M.X.), TRB -2.1% (announces preliminary results of tender offer), AMGN -1.0% (EU health panel adopted a negative opinion for Vectibix). -
Jah, eks nad kardavad maha jääda ja PM USA peal ole hea katsetada, küll lõpuks PM Internationalgi vedu võtab. Madalalt baasilt on tõesti hea kasvada, aga tõenäoliselt pidurdub sellegi areng kusagil. Samasugune nishitoode nagu Quest. UST on neist ikkagi sammuke ees, sest "company is currently test-marketing Revel Tobacco Packs, a uniquely discreet option for adult smokers looking for an alternative tobacco product that allows them to enjoy real satisfaction without lighting up". Sellest saan mina aru nagu veel uuemast lahendusest.
