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Börsipäev 5. juuni

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Eile teatas mööbli ja kodusisustustarvete müügiga tegelev poekett Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), et firma võrreldavate poodide kasv esimeses kvartalis saab olema alla esmalt prognoositud 3-5% kasvu. Täpsemalt oodatakse kasvuprotsenti kõigest 1.6 tasemele. Oleme kinnisvaraturu probleemide jõudmisele tarbijani juhtinud tähelepanu pikka aega ning viimane lähim signaal tuli konkurendilt Williams-Sonoma (WSM), mis langetas varude ja marginaalide tõttu teise kvartali prognoose.

    BBBY börsil kauplemise ajaloos oli taoline hoiatus esimene ning tegelikult võib firmat pidada oma sektori lemmikuks. Analüütikud on soosinud ettevõtet ning nii mõnigi on arvanud, et tegemist on probleemidele immuunse firmaga. Seda hullemini mõjub investorile tõsiasi, et ilmselt ei tegutse firma siiski isoleeritud keskkonnas ning esimene hoiatus saab olema valus. Märgiksin siinkohal ära ka asjaolu, et 20% ettevõttepoodidest asub Californias ja Floridas ehk piirkondades, mis on kõige agressiivsemalt kinnisvaraturu negatiivseid mõjusid tunda saanud. Välja ei saa võrrandist taandada ka tugevat konkurentsi ning asjaolu, et nii BBBY kui ka konkurendid on pidanud toodangu müügiks tegema suuri hinnaalandusi. Antud allahindluskuponge müüdi isegi eBays :) Firma kommenteerib oma situatsiooni järgmiselt:

    "Based upon what we have experienced and has been reported by others, the overall retailing environment, especially sales of merchandise related to the home, has been challenging."

    Nii mõnedki analüütikud on oma prognoose korrigeerimas ning ilmselt ei oleks üllatuseks aktsia kauplemine ca $36 tasemel. Üldiselt on turg olnud andestav ning tegemist on siiski tugeva ettevõttega, mistõttu valuatsioon võib väärtuse otsijatele põhjuse bidimiseks anda.

  • Aasia turud on enne USA börsipäeva enamuses rohelised. Kui Hiinas jooksid eile enam kui 50% aktsiatest lubatud maksimaalse -10%lisse päevalimiiti kinni, siis peale hommikuse languse jätkumist pöörati päeva sees seis jälle tagurpidi ning turg on eilsed kaotused võimsalt tagasi rallinud. Hea ülevaate maailma turgude indeksitest saab Bloombergi vastavast sektsioonist.

    Hiina Shanghai B aktsiate indeksi viimase aja liikumine:

     

    Turu kosumisele aitasid kaasa mitmed spekulatsioonid alates stabilisatsioonifondi loomise võimalikkusest kuni kapitali tulude maksude tühistamiseni.

  • Korduvalt on läbi käinud kommentaarid RACKi ülevõtu osas. Täna kommenteeritakse ka CNBC-s, et RACKi juuli 12.5 strike optsioonid näitasid üles huvi. Üldiselt ei oska ülevõtuprognoose kommenteerida, kuid aktsia kaupleb täna eelturul 7% kõrgemal ning oma osa siin kindlasti ka kõrgel lühikeseks müüdud aktsiate protsendil..
  • Credit Suisse raises their tgt on Apple (AAPL 118.40) to $140 from $120 saying AAPL's imminent launch of the iPhone has elicited a broad range of responses and while many of them have been positive, the iPhone has been met with some investor skepticism. The firm believes the iPhone will elicit a superior perceived value relative to other phones owing to its: 1) technical superiority, 2) unprecedented functionality, and 3) the emotional attachment associated with ownership of a hot product, which will enable it to overcome its $500 price point.

    Friedman Billings notes summer driving season has just begun, but it already looks like 2007 will be the best year yet for the independent refiners. Year-to-date, U.S. refining margin indicators have averaged 37% above comparable year-ago levels and, with gasoline inventories near record lows, rising demand, and ongoing supply constraints, the firm believes that the current high refining margin environment is likely to continue with any unexpected supply disruptions producing price spikes. Additionally, it is important to note that the issues that contributed to the current supply situation (i.e., rising demand, an aging refinery fleet, more stringent environmental regulations, and a stretched labor force) suggest that the broader upward trend in refining margins may continue longer than most investors expect. The firm raises their tgts on Frontier Oil (FTO) to $46 from $40, Holly (HOC) to $65 from $62, Sunoco (SUN) to $92 from $88, Tesoro Petroleum (TSO) to $60 from $48, and Valero Energy (VLO) to $94 from $84. 

  • Bernanke sõnumis on jätkuvalt negatiivseid jooni näha. Kasv vastab oodatud trendile või jääb sellele pisut alla, inflatsiooniohud pigem ülespoole, kinnisvara probleemid on olnud oodatust suuremad..

    Bernanke expects growth 'close to or slightly below' trend
    Bernanke says problems in subprime mortgage markets "almost entirely" among adjustable rate loans
    Bernanke says Housing Downturn 'Has Been Sharp'; Housing Drag 'Somewhat Longer' Than Once Thought
    Bernanke says tighter lending standards to restrain housing demand, hard to estimate how much
    Bernanke sees 'no major spillovers' to other parts of economy
    Bernanke says tightening of lending standards may lead to further contraction in nonprime originations
    Bernanke - long run inflation expectations remain contained
    Bernanke says core inflation "somewhat elevated" but ebbing, risks remain to upside
    Bernanke says tighter lending will 'restrain housing demand'
    Bernanke says energy costs below last year's peak, rate of shelter cost rise to slow but timing uncertain
    Fed's Bernanke - expect US economy to advance at moderate pace near trend rate over coming quarters
  • USA-s futuurid päeva alustamas kergelt punases ning raskelt on käitunud ka Euroopa turud. Allpool on kajastatud Saksamaa $DAX indeksi liikumist:

     

  • Fed Statement Gets Cool Market Reception

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    6/5/2007 9:08 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    Fed head Ben Bernanke is giving a speech in South Africa this morning. His comments on the wire don't contain anything too surprising. He expects growth to be near potential, and he is still worried about inflation. The woes in the housing market have been contained but have lasted somewhat longer than thought.

    The market reaction is slightly negative. It is pretty clear that the Fed is not going to be cutting rates in the near term, and in fact the chances of a rate hike in the future are increasing. The weak housing market is probably the main thing that is keeping the Fed from being more hawkish.

    Low interest rates have been helping the market for a while, and if they continue to inch up, it is going to cause some problems at some point. We will need to watch that closely.
    -------------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: FCEL +4.3%, MIND +5.1%... M&A: AV +2.6% (to be acquired by Silver Lake and TPG Capital for $17.50 per share)... Other news: DRL +11.7% (Board authorizes discussions with FBOP to review previously reported proposal), ONCY +10.1% (announces positive clinical data from U.S. phase 1 Reolysin trial), FMP +9.8% (announces exploration of strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value), QGEN +7.5% (upgraded at WestLB, following yesterday's ~10% sell-off after announcing DIGE acquisition), RACK +7.0% (follow-through momentum following yesterday's +5% move, after Jon Najarian discusses co as takeover candidate on CNBC this morning), IDMI +6.8% (presents interim Phase 2 data from EP-2101 lung cancer vaccine clinical trial), RAD +3.1% (positive Cramer mention).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: AMWD -7.0%, BBBY -5.7%... Other news: OPWV -15.7 (Board rejects Harbinger's offer), TELK -15.0% (announces clinical hold on Telcyta trials), GPCB -11.3% (profit taking after yesterday's late day ~10% run following CEO's comments on CNBC), TRMP -5.7% (downgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns), JNPR -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), SNY -1.1% (updated study results reinforce survival benefit of Taxotere for men with advanced, hormone-resistant prostate cancer)

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