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Börsipäev 20. juuni

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  • FedEx (FDX) teatas täna oma kvartalitulemused ning tõmbas alla Q1 prognoose:

    Reports Q4 (May) earnings of $1.90 per share, excluding $0.06 gain from a settlement with Airbus related to the A380 order cancellation, $0.06 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.96; revenues rose 7.7% year/year to $9.15 bln vs the $9.18 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $1.45-1.60 vs. $1.61 consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $7.00-7.40 vs. $7.35 consensus.

    Taaskord annab firma indikatsiooni keerulise majanduskliima osas ning näeb kasvu madalamat kui ettevõtte pikaajaline eesmärk:

    Earnings growth is expected to be below the co's long-term 10% to 15% earnings growth target due to continued soft economic growth and to planned investments to expand the co's networks and broaden its service offerings. CEO says, "FedEx delivered solid financial results in fiscal 2007 even though we were restrained by a slowing U.S. economy. The weakened industrial sector is currently limiting demand for transportation services, but we expect the U.S. economy to begin to show modest year-over-year improvement in the late summer to early fall timeframe. We remain optimistic about prospects for global economic growth, and will continue to invest in projects critical to achieving strong long-term financial performance." 

  • Reuters raporteerib Bear Stearnsi (BSC) kahe fondi sulgemisest. Viimased investeerisid suure osa kapitalist subprime laenudega seotud väärtpaberitesse. Subprime probleemid ei ole veel läbi ning nagu välja tuleb, oli suur osa kapitalist laenatud.

     

  • Morgan Stanley(MS) teatas, et teenis aktsiapõhist kasumit $2.45 vs konsensusootus $2.01. Oodatust suuremaid kasumeid aitasid näidata suured tulud aktsiate ja võlakirjade kauplemiselt ning investeerimispanganduse tulude tõus. Ootuste löömine suur ning üllatab turgu.

    Eraldi uudisena nähti täna 6.-7. juuni Inglismaa Keskpanga intressimäärade protokolli, mis näitas, et otsus määrad 5.5% peale jätta võeti vastu kõigest 5-4 häälte ülekaaluga. See tõstis omakorda intresside tõstmise tõenäosust juulis ning naela tugevnemist. Määrade tõstmise vajalikkust põhjendati inflatsiooniriskide tõusuga.

    Euroopa täna roheline. Suuremat miinust näitas üksnes Ukraina aktsiaturg.

    Saksamaa Dax +1.19%

    Prantsusmaa CAC +0.31%

    Inglismaa FTSE +0.48

    Hispaania IBEX +0.54%

    Venemaa RTS +1.34%

    Ka Aasia oli täna plussis, kuid negatiivsed see-eest Hiina ja Lõuna-Korea.

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.26%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.47%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.07%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.50%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -2.77%

    Thai Set +2.04%

    India Sensex +0.81%

  • Don't Reason Your Way Out of This Market

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    6/20/2007 8:22 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    Don't fight forces; use them.
    -- Richard Buckminster Fuller
    After the run this market has had since last August, it is extremely tempting to keep looking for a market turn. We all know that markets can't go up forever, and given the sputtering housing market and some of the other economic issues out there, it seems like plain old common sense that the market should pull back.

    I'm sure I don't have to point out that the market isn't showing any signs of weakness at all. In fact, over the last two days we had the ideal setup for at least a slight pullback, and the market held up extremely well. After a big move the prior week and options expiration, some weakness was to be expected, but the bulls were so anxious to buy that we hardly pulled back at all.

    The dip buyers are a mighty force right now, and they are simply not letting the market go down. The past two days illustrated this extremely well, as any weakness found some fast support. To some degree it is simply a self-fulfilling prophecy. We have come to expect every dip to be bought, so we play along, contributing to the phenomenon and keeping it going.

    Investors have a very strong tendency to stick with what has been working most recently. It can be downright reflexive at times, and if you think too hard you will be left standing on the sidelines with a great argument but no profits to show for it.

    I'm dealing with this market that is obviously quite strong but badly in need of a rest by maintaining a very short-term style of trading. I believe the market could turn down quite quickly, but since it is showing no signs of that, I'm not going to anticipate it. I'm going to stick with long-side trades while they are working and watch extremely closely for any signs that we are faltering.

    You don't have to like the market or even believe in it to act in a bullish manner. There is no reason to be overly trusting but it is downright foolish not to appreciate the fact that the technical action is very strong and that buyers are stepping up on even minor weakness.

    The market is always a balancing act, particularly the higher and higher it goes without a good rest. There are profits to make even when logically the strength looks unsustainable. Don't argue yourself out of taking advantage of the forces that continue to drive us upward.

    One day soon we are likely to wonder how we could have gone from a market so strong to one that looks so bad, but that day is not here, and we shouldn't squander the current opportunities to profit.

    We have a positive open on the way. Markets are very strong in Europe as hopes that further interest rate hikes from the Bank of England are on hold. Some deal news involving Home Depot (HD - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) is helping out and several earnings reports are looking OK.
  • USA turg avaneb 0.2%lisest plussist. Hommikul oldi suuremaski plussis, kuid tasapisi on selles järgi antud.

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: LYTS +11.3%, CLC +6.0%... M&A: JNC +17.4% (to be acquired by private equity group for $65 per share; GROW +3.3% up in sympathy)... Other news: AVRX +22.9% (announces positive interim results for AVN944 Phase I trial), LUNA +9.7% (co and Virginia Commonwealth University study published in Journal of Immunology), HD +6.2% (to sell HD Supply and announced $22.5 bln increase in share repurchase authorization), PTR +5.2% (co plans $5.7 bln Shanghai share sale), FRPT +4.7% (announces $221.7 mln contract), FFHL +4.3% (continued momentum from yesterday's ~20% run), MU +3.3% & IFX +2.4%, (Inquirer.net reports that DRAM spot prices get boost from smuggling).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: BW -8.2%, MTRX -5.9%, DRI -3.2%, HANS -2.3% (reported somewhat ambiguous numbers in 10-Q, Herb Greenberg made cautious comments on CNBC), CC -1.7%... Other news: MGM -10.8% (Tracinda determined not to pursue negotiations regarding a possible acquisition of Bellagio and CityCenter), CPSL -4.9% (profit taking following yesterday's strength).
  • Kütusevarud tõusid +1.79 mln barrelit vs oodatud +1.19 mln barrelit.
    Distillaadid tõusid +0.16 mln barrelit vs oodatud +0.87 mln barrelit.
    Toornafta varud tõusid +6.9 mln barrelit vs oodatud –0.05 mln barrelit.

    Toornafta varude tõusu taga suured impordid (ca 0.65 mln barrelit päevas rohkem kui eelmine nädal) ning väiksem rafineerimisaktiivsus.

    Nafta- ja gaasiettevõtete hinnad andmete järel miinuses
  • Pakun paar huvitavat uudisekildu, mida Bloomberg Radiost kuulma juhtusin. Nimelt United Airlines pole alates 2001. aastast kordagi endale uusi piloote otsinud. Täna aga teatati, et välja on kuulutatud konkurss 100 piloodi leidmiseks. Uued lennukipiloodid võivad tüüri taga istuma hakata juba nii varakult kui juba detsembris.

    Teine infokild tuleb seoses rafineerimistehaste võimsustega ja võrdlemisi madalate mootorkütuse varudega, millest olen varemgi LHV lehel kirjutanud. Kui tehased saavad maksimaalsele tootmisvõimsusele lähedastel tasemetel opereerida, suudetakse ilmselt praegune puudujääk ära katta, kuid pikas perspektiivis on rafineerimine üleüldse õrn jututeema. Nimelt on energiavalem läinud üha keerukamaks – langevad nafta varud, etanooli ilmumine kütuseturule jpm. See-eest, kui panustada nafta rafineerimisse, siis praeguseid marginaale arvestades kuluks investeeringute äratasumiseks ca 10-15 aastat, millele tuleks lisada veel ca 5 aastat, mis kulub ühe täiesti uue rafineerimistehase püstipanekuks ja maksimaalse tootmisvõimsuse saavutamiseks. See tähendaks vähemalt 20 aastast investeeringut, kuid selle aja jooksul võib nii mõndagi juhtuda. Siin peitub ka üks põhjuseid, miks viimastel aastatel on investeeringud uutesse rafineerimistehastesse tugevasti kokku kuivanud ning mis on taganud praegustele rafineerijatele ilusa marginaali.
  • Fisher taaskord rõhutamas inflatsiooni tõusmise ohtu sarnaselt teiste maailma keskpankadega ning lisab, et kinnisvaraturu korrektsioon kestab tõenäoliselt kauem, kui paljud on prognoosinud.

    Fed's Fisher says strong world growth may be raising inflation risk
    Fed's Fisher says housing correction will likely last longer than many have forecast

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