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Apple (AAPL) iPhone ja hinnapaketi suunas on tulnud viimasel ajal aina positiivsemaid kommentaare. WSJ tehnoloogiaguru testis seadet paar nädalat ning oli suhteliselt positiivne tulemuste osas (välja arvatud kasutatav võrk ja selle kiirus). iPhone videotutvustust saad vaadata siit. Financial Times kirjutab ka sellest, kuidas Motorola (MOT) on tunnistanud Apple toote tugevust (koos mõningate vigadega) ja aktsepteerib firmat kõva konkurendina. Selle vastu plaanitakse välja tulla uute mudelitega. Barrons kirjutab samuti iPhone teemadel ning mainib negatiivselt RIMMi ja PALMi, kes võivad toote tõttu kannatada saada.
Thomas Weisel raises their AAPL ests above consensus following our latest round of channel checks, with increases due mainly to higher gross margin assumptions and increased assumptions for Mac and iPhone units. They are seeing the first signs of softness on the iPod family, which makes iPhone success even more critical. The firm remains positive overall on the outlook for Apple, but believes those strong prospects are already priced into the stock; thus, they are maintaining a Market Weight rating.
BofA says following a series of sub-par qtrs, they think AMD's business is poised to see some stabilization into 2H07. Central to their view is 1) an improved market for processors following a subdued 1H, due in part to better seasonality, and 2) stabilization in AMD's business following a material inventory build in Q4-06 and Q1-07. AMD, firm believes, is currently seeing the benefit of strong initial uptake of Dell PC desktop systems at Wal-Mart (WMT); a notebook ramp in Q3 at Wal-Mart should prove additive. Also, helping is the ramp of notebooks at Toshiba with AMD targeted to reach 20% of volumes by year-end.
Lehman upgrades Intel (INTC 23.79) to Overweight from Equal Weight and raises their tgt to $28 from $24 saying it expects Q2 sales to reach the top end of the co's forecast as the likes of Dell and Hewlett-Packard restock in preparation for an improved PC market...
Thomas Weisel upgrades Starbucks (SBUX 26.13) to Overweight from Market Weight saying the stock price, along with management's expectations, more than accounts for the challenging consumer environment and rising operating costs.
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Täna on palju uudiseid turule tulemas ning alguse saab see SKP lõpliku numbri avaldamisega tund aega enne turu avanemist. 1. kvartali lõplikuks SKP kasvuks kujunes +0.7% vs +0.8% konsensus. Inflatsiooni näitav Chain-deflator +4.2% vs +4.0% konsensus. Mitte just kõige parem kombinatsioon (SKP alla, inflatsiooninäitaja üles).
Inflatsiooni näitab ka PCE (q/q), mis tuli +2.4% vs 2.2% oodatud. Ettevõtete kasumid kasvasid +1.4% y/y, varasem näitaja on olnud 16% ja viimase kahe kvartaliga kukkunud +7% peale. Tänane edasine kukkumine ses vallas seab tugevalt kahtluse alla ettevõtete poolt prognoositavad kahekohalised kasumikasvu numbrid.
Kell 14.15 USA Idaranniku aja järgi kuuleme Föderaalreservi Intressimäärade poliitikast. -
Novellus (NVLS) kaupleb täna hommikul üle 4% madalamal, hoiatades nõrgeneva nõudluse eest pooljuhtide tootmise seadmete järele. Madalamal kauplevad ka LRCX, ASML, AMAT.
Novellus näeb Q2 tellimusi, käivet ja kasumit prognoosi alumisse äärde, mis viimati anti mai lõpus. Lisaks ootab firma nõrgenevat nõudlust toodete järele ning seetõttu plaanitakse vähendada kulusid - näiteks vähendada juhtide palkasid ning tootmise vähendamist aasta lõpus. Ettevõtte eelnev tellimuste prognoos oli 330-350 mln ning see anti mai lõpus, alandades varasemat prognoosi $330-371 mln. Huvitav on siinjuures asjaolu, et juba mailõpu kommentaaril oodati tellimuste prognoosi uue vahemiku alumisse äärde. Kuigi tol ajal jäeti Q2 üldiselt muutmata, tundub, et osa tänasest hoiatusest on aktsiahinnas juba sees.
Radaril tasub hoida ka AEIS, MKSI, UCTT, kes tarnivad vastavaid komponente AMATile, LRCXile ja Novellusele. -
Euroopa korralikus plussis, kuid seda oli eilse USA ralli järel ka oodata. USA eelturul tulnud majandusandmed aga lükkasid ka Euroopa indekseid tasapisi allapoole.
Saksamaa Dax +1.15%Prantsusmaa CAC+0.81%
Inglismaa FTSE +0.23%
Hispaania IBEX +0.53%
Venemaa RTS +0.87%
Aasia oli eilse USA veenva ralli järel enamuses roheline, Lõuna-Korea näiteks suutis eilse 2%lise languse täielikult täna tagasi teha. Huvitav on kindlasti Hiina 5%line kukkumine, päris mitmes suur langus juba viimasel ajal. Sellisele ebakindlusele ja närvilisusele tasub tähelepanu pöörata.
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.46%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.07%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -4.02%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -5.07%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2.30%
Thai Set +0.93%
India Sensex +0.51%
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Shark viitab sellele, et probleemiks võib saada odava raha lõpp ja likviidsuse langus. Lisaks langevate turgude stsenaariumi korral võib likviidsus omakorda veelgi kiiremini kokku kuivada.
The End of Easy Money May Cause Problems
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/28/2007 7:42 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
Change begets change. Nothing propagates so fast.
-- Charles Dickens
After yesterday's healthy bounce, there is an inclination to believe that nothing has changed, the market is back on track and the long-running uptrend will continue. Perhaps it will, but it would be foolish of us to not consider whether anything significant has changed. The market suffers occasional bouts of indigestion that result in setbacks, but we need to watch for are fundamental changes that are significant enough to turn the market trend.
There is one potential major problem out there right now that could derail the market. That issue is the end of cheap money. For some time now, interest rates have been low and lending standards lax, which has led to a flood of liquidity. These funds have been used for mergers and acquisitions, and to take public companies private. The deals have worked because the cost of capital has been so cheap and banks have been willing to accept certain levels of risks.
The blow-up of two Bear Stearns (BSC - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) hedge funds that invested in collaterized mortgage obligations has suddenly raised concerns that that maybe some of the deals that are being done and the lending practices that support them are no longer viable. A number of folks, such as the heads of the NYSE and Goldman Sachs, have weighed in on this issue and have made it clear that they are concerned.
What we have to watch for are signs that the market is losing an underpinning of technical support because of this issue. No one knows for sure at this point whether this is going to be a major problem, and it is downright foolish for individual investors to try to figure out how these events will eventually unfold. However, we should stay very aware of the problem and watch how the market reacts to news on the topic. If the market shrugs it off and continues to act well, that tells us that the big money that drives things is comfortable. On the other hand, if we start seeing failed bounces and aggressive selling into strength, then that is our tip-off that something major is changing and that we need to move to protect ourselves.
We have a particularly good test setting up right now after the bounce yesterday. Things were looking pretty dicey on Tuesday but the move yesterday resulted in a collective sigh of relief. Part of the move may be due to some optimism about the FOMC interest rate decision this afternoon, but part of it is also due to hope that the bad debt issue may not be so bad.
If sellers start to weigh on the market after we hear from the Fed this afternoon, then we'll know that we are going to need to watch this debt issue more carefully. It is the end of the quarter, and quite often the second day before the end of the quarter is the day where the most mark-up action occurs. Funds don't want to be too blatant about it, so they don't wait until the last moment to play the window-dressing game.
My game plan is to stick to the long side for now but to do some paring back into strength, especially if we get a positive reaction to the FOMC announcement. Once the Fed news is out I'll reassess, but I anticipate that I will be looking for some downside.
We have a flat open on the way. Overseas markets were mostly up in sympathy with U.S. markets. Gold is up, oil is down
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: RAD +5.4%... M&A: MDG +15.7%, NTO +10.1% (AUY and NTO announced that they have entered into a business combination agreement and a concurrent proposal has been made to MDG with respect to the combination of the three cos)... Other news: CRYO +96.9% (FDA Advisory Panel recommends approval of CRYO's PMA), BBW +12.0% (retained Lehman Brothers to explore potential strategic alternatives), AMSC +7.5% (wins two new Dept of Energy superconductor power grid projects), IMMR +6.6% (positive newsletter mention), DNDN +5.4% (continued momentum from yesterday's late-day strength), DDS +4.9% (3.2% holder Barington Capital seeks to maximize shareholder value), ONT +4.0% (announced that its Flix Engine 3GPP products will be used to provide mobile video support to TF1's WAT.tv service), IMOS +4.0% (Merriman notes that the UTAC private equity takeover multiple implies more than a double for IMOS), TASR +4.0% (receives order from Riverside county, forms strategic alliance with iRobot), AMR +3.1% (upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan), COF +2.8% (upgraded to Outperform at Friedman Billings), XMSR +2.8% (TheDeal.com reports the FCC was reexamining the rule that poses a big roadblock to the planned XMSR/SIRI merger).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: DRIV -13.9%, LSI -7.3%, SMOD -5.9%, BBBY -4.4%, NVLS -2.9% (LRCX -2.0%, AMAT -1.7% down in sympathy), RHT -2.8%, KBH -2.3%... Other news: MNTA -14.0% (believes completion of review of ANDA for M-Enoxaparin will likely extend beyond its prior guidance of 18-24 months), BZH -4.2% (disclosed termination of Accounting Officer due to "violations of ethics policy"), AUY -3.2% (announces agreement with NTO and proposal to MDG), ESC -2.8% (prices an 11 mln share common stock offering at $31/share). -
Nafta hind on tasapisi üle $70 hiilinud. Eilne energiaraport näitas mootorkütuse varude oodatust suuremat vähenemist, kuid mitmed rafineerijad on selle valguses juba eelnevalt ka tugevalt tõusnud. Eile hommikul said mitmed tegevusharu tegijad nagu Valero Energy(VLO), Tesoro(TSO) ja Sunoco(SUN) päris agressiivse downgrade ’i ka Citigroup’ilt. Peamisteks punktideks põhjus, et impordid on vähenenud, kodumaine tootmine rekordilistel tasemetel ning kui impordid peaksid suurenema, oleks ajaloolised madalad mootorkütuse varud kiiresti likvideeritud.
Citigroupi analüütik Leggate: Specifically, Leggate wrote, low U.S. gasoline inventories owed more to depressed imports than domestic refinery problems, an issue he said will improve in coming weeks.
U.S. gasoline production, Leggate said, remains close to a record. The second quarter is shaping up, he added, as a record one--but it will likely mark the peak for 2007.
Strong performance since the start of the year has eroded value opportunities for investors, Leggate said. And, against this backdrop, he prefers to stand aside and seek a better entry point for a sector that is notoriously volatile; he also prefers to avoid the risk that lower seasonal margins translate to lower valuations for the U.S.refiners.
Tänane maagaasivarude raport näitas +99 bcfi suurust tõusu, mida on oodatud +83 bcfist pisut enam.
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Bear Sterns analüütik Bloombergis mõtteid vahetamas. Tänast 2.4%list PCE näitu pidas ebamugavalt kõrgeks. Tõi välja ohu, et tarbijahinnaindeks (CPI) võib sügisel (septembris-oktoobris) oluliselt tõusta, kuna nafta hinnad kukkusid 2006. aasta suvelõpus, sest orkaanide hirm ei realiseerunud. Praegu on aga nafta hinnad eelmise aastaga võrreldes ikka päris kõrged ning see omakorda kergitaks headline inflatsiooni.
Lisaks tõi ta välja, et nõrk dollar ja soov saada kõrgemaid palku võib inflatsiooni tõsta. Näiteks Bloombergi töötajate palgad on Londonis korralikult tõusnud, samas sarnast tööd USAs tegevad inimesed saavad nõrgeneva dollari arvelt relatiivselt vähem kätte. Lisaks on kütuse ja näiteks piimahinna aastaga tõusnud ning see muudab töötajad agressiivsemaks tööandjatelt palgatõusu nõudmisel.
Küsimusele, mis võiks Fedi aasta lõpus intresse tõstma ajada, pakkus ta välja, et kui m/m inflatsioon peaks olema 0.2% või rohkem, housing juhtuks aasta lõpus taastuma või kui SKP peaks lähiajal üle 3% tõusma. Dollar nõrgenes tugevalt Q2, Q3 ja Q4. -
Föderaalreserv jätab intressimäärad samaks, nagu oodatud. Räägitakse jutte, et inflatsiooniohud on pisut vähenenud.
FOMC says Predominant Risk Is Inflation, Won't Fall As Expected
Fed says FOMC vote to keep rates steady was unanimous
FOMC drops word "elevated" from description of core inflation
FOMC says readings on core inflation have "improved modestly" in recent months
BONDX FOMC leaves rates unchanged at 5.25% as expected
