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Börsipäev 18. juuli - Beari fondid väärtusetud

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Madis kirjutas pealoos Bear Stearnsi probleemidest lähemalt ning hetkel kaupleb näiteks Saksamaa DAX indeks 2% madalamal eilsetest sulgumistasemetest. USA turgude futuurid indikeerivad samuti päeva algust madalamatel tasemetel.

    Lisaksin Madise jutule veel asjaolu, et huvitaval kombel on uute laenude algatamine kahe viimase aasta jooksul, mil lepingustandartite allakäik aina tõusis, mahult suurem kui viimase seitsme aasta jooksul kokku. Dale Westoff, kes on Bear Stearnsi senior managing director, hindab, et ca 26% sub-prime ja 41% Alt-A laenudest algatati Californias – piirkond, kus kinnisvaraturg on saanud üpriski kõvasti kannatada. Aastal 2006 moodustasid sub-prime/Alt-A umbes 40% kogu hüpoteeklaenudest, hoides endas nii üpriski suurt riski.

    Yahoo! (YHOO) tulemustejärgsele kommentaarile lisaksin veel, et citigroup on väljas suhteliselt huvitava sõnastusega kommentaariga. Kuigi kinnitavad, et fundamentaalnäitajad annavad erinevaid indikatsioone ja üldiselt on nad firma suhtes vähem positiivsed (we would peg trough valuation at approximately $23 (10X ’08EV/EBITDA)), jätavad nad “osta” reitingu muutmata, kuigi tõmbavad alla hinnasihti $32 tasemele. Kommenteerivad firmat isegi kui potentsiaalset 2008. aasta Amazoni (AMZN).

    Citi:But if margins truly trough in H2:07 (likely), revenue growthaccelerates from these levels (probable), & YHOO continues to buy back stock,then YHOO could perform very nicely in 2008...the AMZN of ’08???

  • Lisaks turgu mõjutavatele BSC negatiivsetele uudistele, on pilt täna üpris kirjuks muutumas. Tund enne turu avanemist teatatakse tarbijahinnaindeksi näidud (CPI-lt oodatakse +0.1% ja core CPI-lt oodatakse +0.2%), alustatud ehituste arv ning välja antud uute ehituslubade arv. Seega päris korralikult majandusandmeid ning eile negatiivselt üllatanud PPI tuumikosa (tootjahinnaindeks, mis jätab välja energia- ja toiduhinnad) oodatust kiirem kasv paneb turuosalised kindlasti CPI numbrit jälgima.

    Lisaks on tänase päeva jooksul Ben Bernanke Kongressi ees poolaasta kokkuvõtet tegemas, kus üheks peateemaks kujuneb arvatavasti inflatsiooniküsimus.

  • Lisaks inflatsiooniküsimusele oodatakse ka avaldust subprime teemadel. BB kõneleb meie aja järgi kell 17:00
  • Piisavalt palju infot ühes päevas, et täna vaevalt paigal tammutakse.
    Ülevõtmised ka veel tagatippu:
    Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (Toronto:BAMA.TO - News; NYSE:BAM - News) is preparing a takeover bid for Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (Toronto:CP.TO - News) that could prove one of Canada's largest leveraged buyouts.
  • Täna turul informatsiooni tõesti palju. Beari probleemidesse on kuidagi keeruline hästi suhtuda isegi sellel ülitugeval turul. Jälgida tasub ka naftahinda, kuna pakkus see energiasektorile põhjuse nõrkuseks - see omakorda mõjus kogu turule.

    Tulemused on teatavaks teinud Pfizer (PFE):Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.42 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.08 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.50; revenues fell 5.6% year/year to $11.08 bln vs the $11.44 bln consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for FY07, sees EPS of $2.08-2.15 vs. $2.14 consensus; sees FY07 revs of $47-48 bln vs. $47.72 bln consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $2.31-2.45 vs. $2.34 consensus; sees FY08 revs of $46.5-48.5 bln vs. $47.28 bln consensus.

    Lisaks on Citigroup downgrademas mitmeid söesektori esindajaid: Citigroup downgrades Arch Coal (ACI 34.59), Foundation Coal (FCL 38.86), and Peabody (BTU 46.83) to Hold from Buy

  • Jefferies tõstab Inteli hinnasihti tulemustejärgselt $25 pealt $29 peale, viidates oodatust suuremale teise kvartali käibele ning kolmandas kvartalis 65nm toodete tõttu paranevatele marginaalidele. First Albany lisab, et varud langesid vastupidiselt juhtkonna enda ootustele. CIBCi meelest kinnitavad Inteli tulemused PC-de turu tugevust ning et Inteli turuosa suurenemine mõjub negatiivselt AMD-le.
  • Eile õhtul teatas oma tulemused majadeehitaja Pulte Homes (PHM). Uute tellimuste arv langes võrreldes aastatagusega 20% ning suleti tehinguid 5938 maja puhul, mis on 40% vähem kui eelmisel aastal.

    Firma juht Richard J. Dugas kommenteerib situatsiooni järgmiselt: "The difficult conditions that plagued the homebuilding industry in the first quarter of 2007 worsened in the second quarter, with increased competitive pricing pressures, elevated levels of new and resale home inventory, and weak consumer sentiment for housing affecting the entire industry"

    Kui börsipäeva alguses rääkisin California turu suurest subprime armastusest, siis Pulte Homes kasum tuleb 19% ulatuses just sealt turult ning 17% ulatuses Floridast. Seos on täiesti olemas. Lisaks on PHM öelnud, et kvartali jooksul võetakse $750 miljoni väärtuses sisse kulusid, mis on seotud maa hinna langusega. See on 8% ettevõtte raamatupidamisväärtusest. Probleemid jätkuvad ning ilmselt enne 2008. aasta lõppu need ei lahene.

    Mõningate uuringute kohaselt peaksid elamute hinnad langema 22-28%, et olla vastavuses median asking rent tasemetega. Näitena LA olukord:

     

  • Lisaks ka tänahommikune majandusstatistika, mille peale futuurid üldiselt muutumatud:

    CPI y/y +2.7% vs +2.6% consensus, +2.7% prior

    Building Permits 1406 vs. 1480K consensus, prior revised to 1520K from 1501K

    CPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.1% consensus, +0.7% prior

    Housing Starts 1467 vs. 1450K consensus, prior revised to1434 K from 1474K

    Core CPI y/y +2.2% vs +2.2% consensus, +2.2% prior

    Core CPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% consensus, +0.1% prior 

    Tänahommikuste tulemustega soovitame tutvuda siin ja siin. Lisaks tulemuste poole pealt peaks tähelepanu täna pöörama ka WM tulemustele peale turu sulgumist, kuna tegemist on ühe suurima mortgage pangaga...

     

  • Shark on rääkimas, kuivõrd keeruliseks on aktsiaturu käekäigu prognoosimine viimasel ajal läinud...

    Dow Strength Masks Some Notable Weaknesses
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    7/18/2007 7:20 AM EDT

    "We excuse our sloth under the pretext of difficulty."
    -- Marcus Fabius Quintilian, Roman orator

    The stock market is never easy but lately it is becoming more difficult than usual and there are signs that this tricky trading may persist. The most notable difficulty recently has been the misrepresentation of the indices when it comes to the underlying action.

    If you simply look at the DJIA and listen to the ridiculous obsession with the 14,0000 level in the media, you would think that this market is tremendously strong. It is in some regards, but it is narrow and there are also some areas of troubling weakness.

    The easiest way to see the two-tiered nature of the recent action is to compare the DJIA to the IWM. While the DJIA has moved well above its June highs, the IWM has been unable to push through the highs it hit back at the beginning of June. This disparity can be seen further in breadth, which has been relatively weak and has not confirmed the DJIA strength.

    Yesterday the market was led higher primarily by a few big-cap Dow stocks and strength in semiconductor equipment stocks. Very low expectations about NVLS and hope of a strong report from INTC were the primary drivers.

    However, INTC turned out to have run too far too fast and the earnings numbers are not strong enough to keep things going, at least in the early going. There is some additional negative news on the subprime front and a lackluster report from Yahoo! as well. As a consequence we are seeing a quick reversal of yesterday's gains.


    To make things even trickier we have CPI numbers coming up and Fed Head, Dr, Ben Barnanke, is giving his semi-annual testimony to Congress. According to Sentimentrader.com, the S&P 500 has closed higher all seven days on which a Fed Chairman has begun his testimony since 2005. That is a pretty good record. However, this testimony has quite often led to a short-term top when the market has had a rally into the event.

    Another thing to consider is that although we are still in the early stages of earnings season, so far the reaction to most all the major reports has been negative. This is quite different from what we saw last quarter and the tendency toward "selling the news" or trading up on good news often plays out consistently during a particular quarter. The market doesn't jump back and forth from selling the news to buying it. Once a pattern emerges it tends to persist.

    In summary we have our work cut out for us. This is not the time to be lazy and slothful and to look for a strong market to bail us out of our mistakes. If you see some of your stocks slipping don't give them too much room. Although we have come back strongly from many dips in recent months, that doesn't relieve us of the responsibility to play good defense. Above all else we must also protect our capital.

    We have a weak open on the way following the unremarkable earnings reports from INTC and YHOO and other various issues. Overseas markets are weak and the mood is nervous.

    At the time of publication, De Porre had no positions in stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

    ----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: DAL +3.4%, ORB +3.2%, STJ +3.2%, CSX +2.4%... M&A related news: ALFA +15.8% (reports proposal to take co private at $17.60 per share), M +15.0% (WWD reports that KKR is courting Macy's with $24 bln offer, representing $52 per share), CP +12.0% (Globe and Mail reports that Brookfield-led group is preparing a takeover offer), COMS +5.5% (WSJ's Deal Journal reports that COMS draws buyout interest)... Other news: OMEX +5.8% (still checking for news), SWSI +5.2% (upgraded to Strong Buy at Matrix).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on weak earnings guidance: ITWO -17.5%, PPDI -11.3%, TQNT -7.1%, YHOO -5.2%, INTC -4.8%, DSL -3.9%, JCI -3.0%, JPM -2.0%... Subprime related weakness continues after BSC's hedge fund news & Moody's announcement: BSC -2.6%, NFI -13.5% (still checking for additional news), AHM -2.6%, CFC -2.2%, IMB -1.7%... Other news: NRMX -9.3% (receives approvable letter for eprodisate for treatment of A.A. amyloidosis).
  • Euroopa täna suures miinuses. Saksamma Dax oli vahepeal isegi juba 2% miinuses, kuid päeva jooksul on miinust vähendatud. USA futuurid indikeerivad -0.3%list avanemist.

    Saksamaa DAX -1.46%

    Prantsusmaa CAC -0.85%

    Inglismaa FTSE -0.36%

    Hispaania IBEX -0.28%

    Venemaa RTS -0.90%

    Poola WIG +0.19%

    Aasia turud täna miinustes ning kindlasti üheks põhjuseks eile järelturul oma hedge-fondide väärtusetusetusest teatanud Bear Sterns, mis on ka teatud üldine negatiivne märk USA majandusele.

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.11%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.93%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.88%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.01%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.12%

    Thai Set -0.17%

    India Sensex -0.76%

  • Fed cuts 2007 GDP growth estimate to 2.25-2.5% vs 2.5-3.0%
    Bernanke says with resource use high, sustained inflation ease not yet seen, inflation key policy concern
    Bernanke says risk to econ outlook is housing correction might be longer than expected, may hurt spending
    Bernanke says financing in bond, loan markets still 'brisk"
    Bernanke says core inflation should ease 2007, 08 as energy, commodity prices flatten, labor pressures ease
    Bernanke says Subprime Conditions Eroded 'Significantly'
    Bernanke says recent core inflation readings favorable, but some may be due to transitory influences
    Bernanke warns rising delinquencies, foreclosures "likely will get worse before they get better"
    Bernanke says FED plans to use legal authority to address specific unfair or deceptive lending practices
    Fed says central tendency for 2007 US jobless rate 4.5-4.75%; about 4.75% in 2008
    Fed sees U.S. core PCE at 2%-2.25% in '07, 1.75%-2% in '08
  • EIA ütleb, et kui OPEC lähiajal oma tootmisvõimsusi ei tõsta, siis ülemaailmseid nafta varusid ähvardavad väga madalad tasemed.
  • Liiguvad kuulujutud, et järgmine mortgage disaster on Lehmani Aurora Funding. Suurim Alt A mortgage origninaator USAs.

    "Just taking the Aston Martin out for a spin, Q."

    -- Bond

  • BIDU kukub nagu kivi. Kas asi on kohtuasjas tasuta mp3-ede osas või liigub veel midagi?
  • jyriado, ma hetkel ei näe küll, et mingeid kommentaare oleks. Internetisektor on muidu ka suhteliselt nõrk.

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