LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 20. juuli

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Eile tuli päris mitmeid huvitavaid uudiseid seoses alumiiniumitootja Alcoaga (AA) – nimelt on vahemikus 13. – 17. juuli 4 Alcoa ametnikku müünud aktsiaturule kokku 877 600 aktsiat, võttes sealt välja enam kui $40 miljonit. Müümised toimusid hinnavahemikus $46.67 - $47.47.

    Lisaks jõudsid eile päeva jooksul turule jutud, et varasemaks potentsiaalseks ‘peigmeheks’ Alcoale olnud BHP ei plaani ettevõttele ülevõtupakkumist teha, vastupidiselt nädala alguses ringi liikunud spekulatsioonidele. Uudise levitajaks oli Austraalia ajaleht ning päeva lõpetasid AA aktsiad juba ca 4%-lises miinuses, jäädes algsetes kuulujuttudes levitatud $55-lisele ülevõtuhinnale alla juba 10 dollariga.
  • Kui arvestada, et viimastel kvartalitel on Google (GOOG) suutnud analüütikute prognoose lüüa keskmiselt 10% võrra, siis eilne enam vähem inline tulemus nende ootuste puhul investoreid ei rahuldanud. Kommenteerisin lühidalt tulemus siin.

     

  • Kui kõik silmad hetkel on Googlel, siis eile teatasid oma tulemused ka AMD ja Microsoft (MSFT).

    AMD reports non-GAAP loss of $0.85 per share, excluding $0.24 from ATI acquisition-related and integration charges of $78 million, employee stock-based compensation expense of $31 million, severance charges of $16 million and debt issuance charges of $5 million; co excludes charges but includes stock based compensation, may not be comparable to the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.80); co reports revs up 11.8% yr/yr to $1.378 bln vs $1.247 bln consensus. AMD says "In the seasonally up third quarter, AMD expects revenue to increase in line with seasonality."

    AMD tulemused olid päris huvitavad ning kommentaarid konverentsikõnelt olid optimistlikud. Ettevõte ootab sesoonset tõusu PC-käibe osas 8-10% Q3 ning samuti paranevaid gross margineid. Ettevõtte sõnul suutsid nad kasvatada turuosa CPU turul nii unitite kui dollari baasil.

    Lisaks võideti Toshiba tellimused ning kasvatati ärimahtusid Delliga (DELL). Toshiba osas ollakse suhteliselt optimistlikud 2007. aasta teises pooles, samuti hakatakse Barcelonat müüma Q3. Samuti on hallatud kenasti varusid ning edaspidi hoitakse silm peal kulutustel – ettevõtte eesmärgiks on break-even ’07.

    AMD: “In order to achieve that goal, co says they would have to see gross margins that "begin with the number 4, and see quite a bit of altitude on the top-line."


    Microsoft reports Q4 (Jun) earnings of $0.31 per share, including $0.08 Xbox charge that analysts were including in their estimates, in line with the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.31; revenues rose 13.3% year/year to $13.37 bln vs the $13.27 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.38-0.40 vs. $0.38 consensus; sees Q1 revs of $12.4-12.6 bln vs. $12.57 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $1.69-1.73 vs. $1.71 consensus; sees FY08 revs of $56.8-57.8 bln vs. $57.03 bln consensus.

    Co expects PC unit growth for fy08 to be 9-11% and 11-13% for Q1, est growth rates will continue to be higher in the Consumer segment than in the Business segment.

    On Commercial and Retail business, co expects double-digit growth for both q1 and the yr from continued demand through vol licensing channels.

    Online Services business revs to increase 10-13% for the yr and 10-11% in Q1. This implies ad growth in excess of 20% for the year and for the qtr.

    Server and Tools rev to be 14-15% for the yr and 11-12% for q1.

    For Entertainment and Devices division, forecasting rev growth of 10-19% for the yr and 30-40% for Q1. Business division rev should be 11-12% for the yr and 14-15% in q1... 

  • Citigroup on täna kaitsmas Google’t (GOOG), öeldes, et eilsed tulemused ei muuda nende pikaajalist investeerimisteesi. Põhjused selleks on kahtlemata huvitavad:

    1) Google’i käive oli ootustele vastav.
    2) Kõrgemad tegevuskulud olid ühekordse loomuga ning tulevikus peaks juhtkond selles suhtes hoolikam olema.
    3) Google on selgelt suurendanud oma niigi dominantset turuosa.
    4) Investeeritakse uutesse segmentidesse nagu veebirakendused, bännerreklaam (display advertising).
    5) Valuatsioon on mõistlik – 32x 2008. a GAAP P/E.

    Säilitatakse ostusoovitus hinnasihiga $600. Siiski usub Citi, et kuigi pikajaliselt on valuatsioon soodne ning Google on üks nende lemmikuid internetisektorist, jääb selle kvartali kerge libastumise tõttu tegevuskuludes Google kauplema lühiajaliselt külgsuunas ehk $500 lähedale.
  • Apple (AAPL) esimene target üle $200 piiri: Piper Jaffray raises their tgt on Apple (AAPL 140.00) to $205 from $160
  • Hiina teatas täna, et on viimase 15 kuu jooksul 5. kord oma intressimäärasid kergitamas. Arvestades tugevat sisenõudlust ja rekordilistel tasemetel olevat inflatsiooni, on olukorra kontrolli all hoidmiseks see ainuõige samm. Eile teatas valitsus, et Hiina majandus kasvas 2. kvartalis 11.9%, mis on kiireim tempo viimase 11 aasta jooksul. Hiina Keskpanga sammud panid laenutegevusega tegutsevaid panku tõstma hoiuse- ja laenumäärasid 0.27%-punkti võrra. 1-aastase deposiidi eest makstakse nüüd intressi 3.33% ja laenu eest nõutakse intressi 6.84%. Majanduse jahutamiseks ja raha ringlusse minemise piiramiseks on Keskpank alates 2006. aasta juunist suurendanud ka pankade reservimäärasid kogunisti kaheksal korral.

    Lisaks tuli täna veel teade, et Hiina on vähendanud ka maksumäära deposiidi pealt teenitava intressitule osas, langetades seda 20% pealt 5% peale, julgustades inimesi niimoodi rohkem oma raha hoiusele panema, kui aktsiaturule viima. Muudatus jõustub 15. augustil.
  • Tulemuste eelvaate all sai SLB kohta kommentaari andes põgusalt räägitud ka maagaasiettevõtetest. Tahaksin siinkohal välja tuua. et Wall Street Journal on täna kirjutamas, et uus suur kodumaine maagaasipakkuja peaks täna turule jõudma. Tegu on Independence Hub'iga Louisiana ranniku vetes ning Anadarko Petroleum'ilt oodatakse täna ka vastavasisulist teadet gaasi voolamise kohta läbi torujuhtme. Täisvõimsuse saavutamise järel on Independence Hub'ist paari kuu pärast oodata kuni 1 miljard kuupjalga gaasi päevas (1.5% kodumaisest toodangust). Kuna USAs on see aasta suvi olnud oodatust jahedam, on ka varud kiiresti tõusnud ning lisapakkumine gaasiturule võib hindu üksnes veelgi langetada.
  • Euroopa alustas päeva ilusasti, kuid on päeva edenedes ära vajunud.

    Saksamaa DAX -0.60%

    Prantsusmaa CAC -0.17%

    Inglismaa FTSE +0.05%

    Hispaania IBEX -0.81%

    Venemaa RTS -0.14%

    Poola WIG -1.07%

    Aasia roheline. Bangladeshi, Filipiinide, Singapuri, Indoneesia, Pakistani, Hiina ja Hong Kongi börsid näitasid kõik enam kui 1%list tõusu.

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.23%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.20%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +3.73%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +3.91%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.73%

    Thai Set +0.39%

    India Sensex +0.10%

  • Pakun täna Sharki asemel Cramerit lugeda, kes räägib finantssektorist ning ka kinnisvarast:

    Don't Get Too Bearish on the Financials
    By Jim Cramer
    RealMoney.com Columnist
    7/20/2007 8:59 AM EDT

    The jury's back, and it's incredible how bad housing is. Every company I follow says the same thing: no bottom. And now people are admitting that if there is a bottom, it won't come until late 2008.

    I am nota contrarian about this, even in my personal life where I have held out on buying a house now for 18 months and have been vindicated monthly. I believe that one or two of the publicly traded homebuilders and possibly a major mortgage company or two, ones not tainted with fraud, will go under.

    I don't trust any of the paper that was written in 2005 and 2006 against mortgages. And I suspect that defaults will far exceed the reserves taken for many banks and brokers.

    Further, I see that the leveraged loans aren't moving unless rates for the merchandise go up appreciably. I have been adamant that the Tribune (TRB) deal will be a total wipeout and the employees who participate will lose every dime. In fact, if the Bush administration hadn't abolished the Labor Department, I believe any secretary with any compassion would blocked this deal.

    All that said, the key issue is, when are things discounted? I have said that I expect Goldman (GS) to drop at least another 10% before I would buy more. And Goldman may be the best of the bunch.

    I don't like any of the major banks except Citigroup (C) and that's because it pays you 4.2% while you wait for Chuck Prince to be fired.

    But as you have to be with any glass-totally-empty story, I am mindful that if you are totally bearish, you could be wrong. I found it funny that Dick Bove is back on the scene making big calls. It's ironic.

    In 1991, with my old hedge fund 100% short the financials, I went to hear a very bearish Dick Bove say that Wells Fargo (WFC) could go under. Wells Fargo! Holy cow. He frightened me to death. I thought it was a good lender.

    I remember sitting down with Eliot Spitzer, then a real estate guy and his dad, and telling them I was worried about every major bank. I had scored a giant hit in shorting every savings and loan in New York -- my year was made by Crossland going under -- and I was short Citi, Chase, Manny Hanny (remember Manufacturers Hanover?), Security Pacific, Bank of America and Bank of Boston, having also cleaned up on the demise of Bank of New England.

    Tom Brown, then a sell-side analyst, had me short Valley Nat from Arizona. He had taken me out to Peter Luger's and laid down on the table a dozen Polaroids of vacant land he had just snapped while in Phoenix. He said all of these shots were of land where construction loans had been taken out and none of them was listed as non-performing yet. What a home run. I was up huge!

    Now it was Wells! Dick Bove had said to bet against Wells!

    At the very moment I went short Wells, the great Warren Buffett was building his position in Wells. The short-sellers lost a fortune. I only lost $20 on my short, made up by the demise of a couple of regionals in New Jersey.

    But it was still brutal. At the same time that Buffett was buying Wells, Prince Alaweed bin Talal was buying Citigroup. Fortunately some analysts who had been negative long before Bove gave me a heads up to cover so I could live to play another day.

    The same story played out again in 1998, but that time I was long them and my portfolio dropped like a stone. It was brutal and made worse by my panic out at the bottom, well described in Confessions of a Street Addict.

    I am not saying now that we have hit bottom. Not saying that at all, although the Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) number last night showed me there are some lenders who know what they are doing.

    I am saying that with the averages at all-time highs, it's not like the financials are participating and the market is oblivious to the problems. Many of the financials are being kept up by big dividends and big buybacks.

    Maybe they are foolish. If you read all the notes after Washington Mutual's (WM) pretty decent quarter, you can tell that no one believes this bank and thinks that it is run by idiots who think they can make up the coming losses with fee income, which you can never do.

    The dividend boost is for show, these critics hint. The buyback just downright reckless. Better to put the $500 million to work in reserves.

    It is true that the AAA paper is breaking down. Bear (BSC) misjudged the paper for certain, both in the original investment and then in the bailout. (Click here to read my series of posts on what exactly happened there.) It is true that I suspect big deals to fail that will hurt a lot of bottom lines.

    But you have to ask yourself, if you reduce the earnings substantially for the banks and brokers -- which is what everyone is obviously betting on -- are they incredibly overvalued now? I believe that a Merrill (MER) at 10 times earnings with lots of fee income and a smart management is not substantially overvalued. Neither is Bank of America (BAC) or Lehman (LEH) . These companies are not sitting ducks.

    Could this be 1991? Of course it could, especially if the Federal Reserve is oblivious to the severity of the housing problem.

    But with one conference call, with one change of mind by one man, Ben Bernanke, everything I just wrote about can change. Oh, it won't save housing, and it won't save the AAA paper that was corrupted from 2006, but you would be nuts to think that you won't lose big on your shorts.

    Here's my ultimate takeaway: I would remain short every publicly traded homebuilder through October puts. Every one. I would be short most mortgage companies that have puts. I would be short some banks against others. I remain extremely negative.

    But I don't want to fall prey to another "short Wells" call.

    Someone on Stockpickr called me a permabull this morning. Let's get this straight: I like a half-dozen sectors. That's it. I didn't like Google (GOOG) last night. It will cause Amazon (AMZN) , Research In Motion (RIMM) and Apple (AAPL) to go down. It's time to take some of them off anyway. They've had monster runs.

    I hate all financials for now. I would love to be short some against my Action Alerts PLUS longs, but I am restricted from shorting stocks. I would still short Blackstone (BX) and even Fortress (FIG) . I would short JPMorgan (JPM) for certain; I didn't like that quarter and it doesn't have a big enough dividend to support it. Please understand this is major for me to say "short these companies." Major.

    But I don't think the problems are not in some of the stocks. And I don't think that all the companies are whistling past the graveyard.

    That's where I think we are. Stocks don't have such low multiples 'cause numbers are going higher. But don't make the 1991 mistake that many did. It is 1990 for certain, but 1991 did come and many did not see it coming. So did October 1998.

    Just a tiny note of caution to what I believe remains a vicious bear market in all financials.
    ----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: ISRG +15.3%, OMCL +10.9%, IMAX +7.3%, SNDK +5.6%, STX +3.7%, AMD +3.5%... Other news: NCST +76.2% (receives FDA clearance of antimicrobial barrier topical cream -- note that WEDX, which owned a 75% stake in NCST as of 12/31, is gapping up +36%), AHM +13.2% (JMP Securities comments on yesterday's mkt rumor -- firm contacted the co and determined that this specific rumor was not true), REFR +9.8% (BusinessWeek Online profiled co positively in Inside Wall Street), WMB +5.8% (to create new MLP for gas pipeline assets; announces $1 bln stock repurchase program), LLNW +5.0% (upgraded at tier-1 firm), PGNX +4.9% (co and WYE announced positive results of Phase 1 study of new oral Methylnaltrexone).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: BC -8.2%, CAT -8.1%, PKTR -7.0%, GOOG -6.5%, ERIC -5.1%, XLNX -4.2%, GILD -3.4%... Other news: BVF -15.7% (announced that it has received a Non-Approval letter from the FDA for its NDA for BVF-033, a salt formulation of bupropion), PHRM -13.4% (still checking for news), FSLR -5.0% (files 9.65 mln share offering), JADE -7.6% (co receives non-compliance notification from Nasdaq), AMSC -3.9% (priced 4.7 mln share offering at $21.25).
  • JP Morgan forecasts more rating downgrades of asset-backed securities and ABS CDOs
  • Lisasime LHV Pro alla ka meie uue investeerimisidee - Motorola (MOT). Tegu on suure ja hästi tuntud ettevõttega, kes on viimasel ajal probleemide käes vaevelnud, kuid praeguseks näitamas ümberpöördumise märke. Oleme aktsiat juba pikka aega jälginud ning usume, et nüüd on ettevõttesse investeerimiseks aeg küps. Kui kohe meie analüüsi läbi lugeda ei jõua, siis loodetavasti kõik LHV Pro kliendid seda nädalavahetuse jooksul ikka teha jõuavad :)
  • "AMD tulemused olid päris huvitavad ning kommentaarid konverentsikõnelt olid optimistlikud. Ettevõte ootab sesoonset tõusu PC-käibe osas 8-10% Q3 ning samuti paranevaid gross margineid. Ettevõtte sõnul suutsid nad kasvatada turuosa CPU turul nii unitite kui dollari baasil.

    Lisaks võideti Toshiba tellimused ning kasvatati ärimahtusid Delliga (DELL). Toshiba osas ollakse suhteliselt optimistlikud 2007. aasta teises pooles, samuti hakatakse Barcelonat müüma Q3. Samuti on hallatud kenasti varusid ning edaspidi hoitakse silm peal kulutustel – ettevõtte eesmärgiks on break-even ’07."
    Mina nende juttu ei usu - võlg kasvanud 5,3B $-ni ja isegi kui kahjum vähenema hakkab järgmisel aastal lööb see ilmselgelt ühel hetkel arendusvõimaluste kraanid kinni...hetkel seda veel näha pole ja pööre võimalik. Samas AMD on senistes avaldustes lubanud kärpida oma tegevuskulusid - sellist kokkuhoidu ei saavutata inimühikutelt. Lisaks veel see, et ATI ostu kannaks ma prügikasti - teeb ATI AMD-le päris kena kahjumit. Käive kukkunud AMD all ~2X varasemalt tasemelt. ATI kasumlik osa chipseti tootmine on tõstetud CPU osaga ühte patta seega neid arve me ei näe kahjuks. AMd ilmselgelt ei suuda arendada ka piisavalt ATI osa edasi - handheld ja proffi GPU turg kannatab. Hetkel on mindud puhtalt odavale teele - massiline OEM hea hind, ag asiin tuleb järjekordne löök kui intel kolib 45nm peale.
  • Sipsik21, AMD on kindlasti raskes olukorras ja sõda käib suure vastasega. Reedesel kauplemispäeval toimunud allamüük indikeerib ka seda, et paljudel ei olnud usku tulemustesse.

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