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Blue Monday ? Esmaspäev, 30. juuli

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • mõned mõtted usa turu kohta, mis võib juhtuda esmaspäeval:

    So what happens Monday? (http://market-ticker.denninger.net/)

    IF one of the nuclear weapons go off over the weekend before we open, then "what's going to happen" will be obvious. We are going to crash. Period. If you wanted to get positioned, your chance was today. Monday you won't get the chance. What will kick it off? Any of the following:

    * A serious unwind of the carry. Yen somewhere under 118 will set that off, but there's no way to know exactly where it happens. In short, watch the Yen Sunday evening when the FX markets open and especially when we get into the wee hours of the morning when Europe starts trading. If it roaches hard, WATCH OUT.
    * If the Asian markets go completely to crap, we will likely follow them. Note that "complete to crap" is not down 1 or 2% - its a crash over there. Remember that China cannot drop more than 10% (they actually close the markets!); perspective is important. If they open severely down and followthrough occurs in Europe, look out!
    * If any of the ticking nuclear weapons go off in the debt markets. This is a very serious risk - perhaps the most serious, because it is nearly impossible to quantify and could show up suddenly during the day as well. There is simply no way to put a handle on this but if it happens - you'll know it.

    Note that only the second - the Asian markets going to hell, with none of the others getting in the way leaves any chance for intervention by anyone. There is no government in the world that can stop the FX markets from unwinding if they want to; they will simply piss money into a singularity. Ditto if the implosion occurs in the credit markets. The problem with the other scenario is that it is almost certain to touch off one of the other two! So forget about the "PPT" or any other such nonsense - if we get triggered there will be no rescue.

    The other alternative is that none of these things happen going into Monday. In that case we will likely open down but at some point next week - perhaps Monday - the selling will abate. It could happen at the open but I'd bet against that; in all probability we will open down and either it'll wait a day or two and slowly abate or we'll reverse hard midday one of the days next week, perhaps even Monday.

    At that point we will start to rally again. This rally should stall somewhere before we get to the 50DMA, likely before 1500, but we may cross it. When that rally stalls, and it should either next week or the first week in August, The Abyss will yawn wide.

    Beware for there will be many Bears - and Bulls - caught in this trap on both ends. Trying to trade this in either direction carries extreme risk. If you can't be watching the market literally tick-by-tick don't even think about trying it!

    If you try to front-run either of these moves play limited risk strategies that cannot be caught offsides and inflict unlimited - or nearly so - damage upon you.

    Many people will see the selling exhaust and think its over, buying "the bottom". It is very likely that this will prove to be an excruciatingly bad bet; the odds of this being a "one trick pony", with the technical damage done here, are extremely small.

    I rate the odds of this being over when the selling exhausts initially at less than ten percent.

    To give you an idea of where we might end up if the February lows do not hold (and remember, they have effectively already cracked in the Russell; this means that odds are they will not hold in the other indices either!) I will leave you with one final chart.

    The targets, assuming we break trend at roughly 1375 - coincidentally right at the February lows (the trendline from 2003) are 1250 (there is a strong bottom there), 1160 and 1070. Below that we go after the 2003 lows as there is no meaningful support below 1070 until we get there!

    Put those numbers in your pipe and smoke 'em, because if the February levels crack in the S&P the minimum downside target is 1250 - a full 20% loss - and it only gets worse from there.

    Come over to the forum and let's chat!
  • Reuters
    ABN leans toward dropping support for Barclays: paper
    Saturday July 28, 6:21 am ET

    AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Dutch bank ABN AMRO NV (Amsterdam:AAH.AS - News; NYSE:ABN - News) is leaning towards dropping its support for Barclays' 69 billion euro ($94.2 billion) takeover offer, Dutch daily Het Financieele Dagblad reported on Saturday.

    ADVERTISEMENT
    Citing sources close to the company, the paper said the difference to the 72 billion euro offer by a consortium of Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE:RBS.L - News), Fortis (Brussels:FOR.BR - News) and Santander (MCE:SAN.MC - News) had become too big.

    ABN AMRO declined comment.

    The bank is expected to deliver a statement on the bids on Monday morning alongside its quarterly results, based on discussions at meetings of its supervisory and management boards on Friday.

    ABN could choose to recommend the Barclays bid, which it initially endorsed in April, or it could switch its recommendation to the consortium's offer, which has accused ABN's management of resisting its overtures.

    Thirdly, ABN could withhold a recommendation, as the matter will be resolved in any case by shareholders tendering their shares to one or the other bidder.

    China Development Bank (CDB) and Singapore state investor Temasek bought stakes in Barclays on Monday to help the British bank raise its offer for ABN.

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