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Börsipäev 2. august

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  • Bloombergis on täna huvitav positiivne artikkel Tai aktsiaturgude teemal. Nimelt on enamus finantsmaailmaga vähegi kursis olevad inimesed teadlikud, et Tai ettevõtted on võrreldes paljude teiste regiooni aktsiatega kauplemas olulise allahindlusega. Loomulikult on selleks ka omad põhjused – ebastabiilsus (pommiplahvatused, rahutused, riigipöörde katsed) on olnud üks peamisi tegureid. Kuid lootus, et asjad on juba lähitulevikus muutumas, on hakanud üha rohkema investorite tähelepanu piirkonnale tõmbama.

    Tai aktsiaturg kaupleb kõigest ca 12.6x 2007. aasta kasumil. Doug Barnett, kes juhib $350 miljardilist Tai turgudele suunatud aktsiafondi, kuhu on investeerinud ka maailmale tuntud nimed Julian Robertson ja John Templeton, on ütlemas, et praegu on regiooni investeerimiseks just õige aeg. Samuti on analüütikud HSBC’s ja Austraalia Macquarie pangas hakanud klientidele piirkonda üha aktiivsemalt soovitama.

    Neile, kes peaksid tõesti pikaajaliselt raha Tai börsile investeerima, peaks kindlustunnet pakkuma kohaliku eluga väga hästi kursis oleva maailma areenil tunnustatud fondijuhi Marc Faberi sõnad: “Kuna teised arenevad turud on niivõrd palju juba tõusnud, on Tai aktsiaturud odavad.” Faber on samuti kaalumas oma investeeringute suurendamist regioonis.

    Ise suhtuksin arenevatesse turgudesse täna veel teatud ettevaatusega ja ostma ei tormaks. Kuid Tail tasub silma peal hoida juba täna ning oodata arenenud turgude korrektsiooni lõppu. USA turult on LHV vahendusel võimalik osta Tai fondi sümboliga TTF.

    Täispikk artikkel Bloombergist siia klikkides.

    Tai turu 3 aasta graafik:

  • Toon välja mõningate tuntumate ettevõtete kohta analüütikute tänased arvamused:

    BofA initiates Apple (AAPL 135.00) with a Buy and sets a $160 tgt, as they still see upside in shares due to continued significant growth and share gains in its Mac business, solid unit growth for iPods, and the iPhone

    Calyon upgrades MasterCard (MA 150.00) to Buy from Add and maintains their $179 tgt, following Q207 revenue and EPS that exceeded consensus estimates. The firm is confident that MA's shares will rebound over the near-term, despite a falling market

    BofA initiates Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 46.73) with a Buy and sets a $56 tgt, as they believe significant cost savings and better than expected revenue growth will drive EPS estimates higher and see guidance and street estimates for revenue and EPS as too conservative given channel checks that indicate strong demand and favorable component pricing

    CIBC upgrades Broadcom (BRCM 33.03) to Outperform from Sector Perform

    BofA initiates IBM (IBM 112.04) with a Neutral and sets a $125 tgt, as they are concerned that the co is "operating on all cylinders", lack of organic, non-currency assisted revenue growth, lofty expectations for its choppy services business, and recently increased valuation

    BofA initiates Dell (DELL 27.76) with a Buy and sets a $35 tgt, as they believe the co will benefit from a "reversion to the mix" over the next couple of years and should also benefit from recently announced cost cutting actions while potential share buybacks could occur, once the co files its financial statements

    CIBC downgrades Marvell (MRVL 17.45) to Sector Perform from Outperform saying though they believe Marvell has passed the bottom, it may be hard to live up to renewed bullish expectations for growth

  • kristjan, rääkides blue-chipidest, siis mida Sa Claymore Ocean Tomo PTNT (OTP) indeksist arvad (vs Russell 2000)?
  • Pro hiljutine short idee Clorox (CLX) paneb täna vägevalt pange. EPS $1.07 vs $1.1 ja käive $1.34 miljardit vs $1.38 miljardiline konsensus. Prognoos 2008. aastaks oli aga väga negatiivne: EPS of $3.27-3.46 vs. $3.60 konsensus. Vihjati sellele, mida me ka oma teesis välja tõime - sisendihinnad ning kasvav konkurents. Hetkel aktsia 3.6% madalamal eilsetest sulgumistasemetest.
  • Let This Chaos Play Out
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    8/2/2007 7:50 AM EDT


    You need chaos in your soul to give birth to a dancing star.
    -- Friedrich Nietzsche

    The most noteworthy development in the market recently isn't the weakness but the very high level of volatility. Nasdaq volume has been much higher than the 60-day moving average for 11 of the last 12 sessions, and the intraday swings have been nothing short of dramatic.

    There isn't any big mystery about what's driving this. Uncertainty and emotions are running high. Market players are feeling confused, and they're scrambling, in haphazard fashion, to deal with their feelings. Some are worried that we are at the start of a downtrend, while others see this pullback as a buying opportunity. These forces are battling back and forth and giving us some big swings.

    In addition, this sort of market environment tends to lead to more program trading. There are greater disconnects between the indices and the underlying stocks in them. That triggers program trading, where big baskets of stocks are bought and sold and leads to sudden spikes like we've seen in the closing minutes the last two days.

    It is important to take a step back when looking at this market and not let the swirl of short-term emotions blind you. A sudden 150-point spike like the DJIA experienced in the final hour of trading yesterday can easily cause you to forget the bigger issues that we have been confronted with prior to that.

    What we have to keep in mind now is that the market has undergone a clear change in character in recent weeks. The private-equity deals that were keeping things so hot have now dried up; earnings reports didn't not produce positive responses, even when numbers were good; and, most importantly, we have breached important technical support and have suffered a nasty failed bounce.

    While we can be hopeful that this is yet another temporary market dislocation that will be quickly forgotten, it would be reckless of us to blithely believe that will be the case. The bulls have to prove themselves before we can increase our confidence levels and put more of our hard-won capital on the line.

    Let the chaos play out; keep an optimistic mindset, but don't be too quick to trust. This market has issues, and it is foolish to ignore them.

    We have mixed action in the early going. Overseas market perked up a bit, but market players are not doing much as they wait to see how the mood develops.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: SMDI +12.0%, RAS +11.5%, NAPS +11.5%, SMSI +8.1% (also upgraded to Outperform at Rodman & Renshaw), DLB +10.7%, NOK +7.4%, CS +6.0%, DSX +5.8%, LDK +5.4%... M&A: CKFR (to be acquired by FISV for $48 per share in cash)... Other news: PHRM +32.9% (says Vidaza significantly extends overall survival by 74% in Phase 3 trial in myelodysplastic syndromes), ZVUE +18.8% (announces it will acquire user-generated content website eBaum's World), AGEN +13.1% (provides update on filing for approval of Oncophage in Russia for treatment of intermediate-risk kidney cancer; co also reported Q2 earnings), FTWR +5.3% (continued momentum).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: GYI -13.7%, GYI -12.5%, ACLS -10.5%, MTG -8.7%, MOLX -7.1%, EDS -4.8%, CHTR -3.9%, NT -3.9%, TOT -3.0%... Other news: POZN -45.3% (FDA issues second Approvable Letter for Trexima), LEND -23.3% (co files 10-K with "going concern" statement), NFI -10.5% (still checking for any news), TASR -4.7% (Bloomberg article discusses TASR lawsuit settlements), GOLD -3.8%, SGP -1.8% (co files for a mixed shelf offering).

  • OTP-st ei arva midagi, pole seda vaadanud. "S&P + midagi ekstra" mõttes olen ma vaadanud näiteks BEP-i.
  • Aeg ajalt tasub visata pilk ka meie tulemuste tabelile. Teha saab seda siin.
  • Sub-prime maailmas käivad ikka asjad nii seinast seina ja kiiresti viimasel ajal, et lausa pilpaid lendab. Veel alles hiljuti jõudis LEND ühisele arusaamale Lone Star private equity firmaga, et viimane ostab ta ära $15.1 aktsia eest. Nüüd on firma andnud sisse 10K filingu, kus öeldakse: cannot assure investors it will continue to operate as a "going-concern" (going concern describes a business that functions without the intention or threat of liquidation for the foreseeable future, say at least within 12 months). Aktsia kaupleb selle peale 30% madalamal.
  • BW võiks ka investeerimishorisondiga huvitav olla
    kasvav nõudlus ning vähe esindatud valdkond
    kui kasvulainele tagasi saadakse on õigustatud tasemed kõrgemal kui 50$
  • speedy, teesi toetab ka suuraktsionäri positsiooni suurendamine.
  • BW avaldab tulemused "kahjuks" nädala lõpus, mis üldjuhul tähendab halbu tulemusi. Pikemas perspektiivis on loomulikult kõik OK. Samas on ootused juba nii madalal, et tõenäolisem on peale tulemusi tõus.
  • mis päeviti siis tavaliselt head tulemused on ?
  • no vaadates tänast tõusu ,siis need ootused nii väga madalal ei olegi. aga nädalapäevade suhtes ei tasuks nii paranoiline olla:)
  • Homme avaldatakse enne turgu tööjõu number ning seda jälgib turg päris pingsalt - igasugune märk, mis indikeeriks majandusaktiivsuse tugevusele (ehk oodatust suurem näit) on ilmselt lühiajaliselt ülemüüdud turgu põrgata aitamas. Oodatust nõrgem näit toetaks aga lühikesi.
  • Kogemus ütleb, et paremaid tulemusi avaldatakse hea meelega nädala alguses. See on puhtalt üldistus ega mõeldud tehingute tingimusena. BW on Pro soovitus ja kuigi stop oleks pidanud käiku minema, olena samuti veendumusel, et pikas perspektiivis hea investeering. Hetkel ei oma, aga proovin kasutada täna võimalust ühe osa ostmiseks.

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