Börsipäev 5. september
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Üks tehniline pilt tänase börsipäeva alustuseks:
Tähelepanu tasub pöörata eileõhtusele ärakukkumisele (kui seda niimoodi üldse nimetada võib) - või siis pigem sellele, et tippudest sulguti oluliselt allpool.
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Kui Aasia turud olid veel puna-rohe kirjud jaapaniga eesotsas allapoole liikumas, siis Euroopas on juba punane värv suure ülekaale saavutanud. Ka USA futuurid indikeerivad negatiivset päeva algust ning miinuses peaks päev alanema S&P500l ca -0.6% ning Nasdaq 100l ca -0.3%.
Saksamaa DAX -0.89%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.16%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.92%
Hispaania IBEX -1.51%
Venemaa RTS +0.06%
Poola WIG -0.94%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.60%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.77%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.32%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.12%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.29%
Tai Set +0.49%
India Sensex -0.12%
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Vastukaaluks eile Deutsche Banki tegevdirektori poolt öeldud positiivsetele sõnadele finantsturgude osas, on Euroopa Keskpank päris mures:
ECB will act if volatility persists tomorrow - Bloomberg
ECB says closely monitoring money markets; says money market volatility has increased
Lisaks on Inglismaa süstimas süteemi lisalikviidsust.
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Bulls Rely On Rate Cut
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/5/2007 7:54 AM EDT
Consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative.
-- Oscar Wilde
The dilemma of the market in recent days is that the strong action is seemingly inconsistent with a market that believes there are sufficient economic problems that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in the very near future. The recent market strength would seem to indicate that the market is optimistic that rates will be cut. We have to wonder, however, why the market isn't worried about the conditions that give rise to a rate cut.
If housing is a problem and the economy is slowing, doesn't that mean that corporate earnings are likely to slow and that stock valuations might fall? Can we really have a situation where stocks continue to rise in price although their business is deteriorating?
At some level, there is a logical inconsistency in this market, but market players do an exceptionally fine job of finding ways to explain it away. The most prevalent explanation is that housing and debt issues are contained somehow and will not spill over to retail, technology, energy, etc. Apparently, economic slowing will somehow be selective.
There certainly is an argument to be made that the international economy remains quite strong and that it will help offset any issues in the U.S. domestic economy but the world's largest economy is not insignificant. Any real slowdown in the U.S. will have wide-ranging impact, particularly for smaller companies without major international business.
So what is driving the recent action? The Nasdaq is back to where it was in early July and acting like it wants to challenge highs. Didn't any of these subprime and credit issues matter?
What really pushed the market to recover were actions taken by the Fed and now the widely held belief that interest rate cuts are coming. No one wants to be on the wrong side of a rate cut. We all know that it can produce a big pop, and I suspect that many bears are looking for better entry points after the Fed acts.
With the Fed interest rate cut hopes providing nice underlying support, the momentum players were free to do their thing. The bears couldn't do much with the Fed ready to ride to the rescue, so the buyers were given free rein to do their thing and push prices up aggressively. The fact that this has taken place on mediocre volume is an indication that this move is not being embraced by major institutions.
So where do we go from here? Can the bulls keep this momentum going? With the Fed at their side, they don't have a lot of obstacles in their way. Poor economic news is actually a positive because it reinforces the likelihood of a rate cut. However, comments like those by Fed member Lacker late yesterday, who said that inflation remains the Fed's primary concern, can cause some problems for the bulls.
So we are at one of those junctures where the bulls are in control but the basis for that control is problematic and could be dealt a swift blow with the wrong sort of news. Momentum can always continue longer than we think is likely, but when there are logical inconsistencies as obvious as those that exist now, we'd better be ready to lock in gains and raise cash very quickly.
We have a soft start to the day as weak economic reports in Europe are affecting the tone. The beige book report that is due out at 2 p.m. EDT is going to be of particular interest today, but overall, the news flow is slow and market players seem to be a bit more contemplative of the rationale behind the recent strength.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: XING +10.6%, MIND +7.7%... M&A: APLX +21.1% (to be acquired by COGN for $17.87/share)... A number of biotech stocks are gapping up on news this morning, and seeing follow through on strength in the group yesterday: PARD +16.3% (receives FDA fast track designation for picoplatin for treatment of small cell lung cancer), SLXP +14.8% (announces statistically significant top-line results from study in ulcerative colitis), DEPO +9.7% (announces positive results of Phase 2a proof-of-concept GERD study), NFLD +5.7% (continued strength after yesterday's 70%+ move), DYAX +4.0% (Dyax and Bayer Schering Pharma enter into a collaboration agreement for discovery of therapeutic antibodies), AMGN +3.2% (Senate and House of Representatives passed an N.C.D. Resolution -- this morning Deutsche Bank said it was a "major positive")... Other news: VCLK +2.5% (last night Yahoo acquired ad network co BlueLithium -- this morning there has been mixed analyst commentary regarding the impact on VCLK).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: FNSR -10.9%, DSW -7.7%, GES -6.8%, SCMR -6.4%, COST -5.5% (reported same store sales below consensus)... Other news: AGIX -15.3% (announced new scientific data saying AGI-1067 significantly lowered glycated hemoglobin levels; move lower may be attributed to profit taking as stock had run over 100% heading into presentation), RDN -8.3% (MTG and RDN terminate merger agreement), NFI -7.4% (continued pressure after yesterday's 17% sell-off), JSDA -4.8% (trading lower after Seattle Post article highlights shareholder class action suit against co) -
Väike valik tänastest tähtsamatest reitingumuudatustest:
Fortis Bank tõstab Chesapeake Energy (CHK) soovitust ’hoia’ pealt ’osta’ peale ning liigutab hinnasihi $38 pealt $40 peale.
UBS tõstab Steel Dynamicsi (STLD) ’neutraalse’ pealt ’osta’ peale - siht $52.
Lehmann Brothers langetab Deutsche Banki (DB) ’overweight’ pealt ’underweight’ peale ning Credit Suisse’i (CS) soovitus ’equal-weight’ peale. Reitingulangetamised on finantssektoris hoogu kogumas.
Citi alustab Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) katmist ’osta’ soovitusega ning Deutsche Securities alustab Boeingu (BA) katmist ’hoia’ soovituse ja $104-lise hinnasihiga.
Lisaks on täna hommikul Altria(MO) soovitust 'osta' pealt 'neutraalse' peale langetanud Goldman Sachs. Altria moodustab ca 12% Consumer Staples Select SPDR'ist (XLP). -
Poole tunni pärast avaldatakse juulikuu 'pending home sales' (eelmine kuu +5.0%) ning kell 14.00ET avalikustatakse Föderaalreservi Beez raamat. Mõlemat raportit oodatakse suure huviga.
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Ei ole olukord roosiline - juulilt nii nõrka tulemust ja kiiret ärakukkumist küll ei oodatud:
Pending Home Sales m/m -12.2% vs -2.2% consensus; prior +5.0%
Turud kukkuvad selle peale pea 0.4%. -
Liiguvad kuulujutud, et täna teatab Apple (AAPL) kokkuleppe saavutamisest The Beatles'iga, mis lõpetaks kaua kestnud tüli Apple'i kaubamärgi üle:
12:14 AAPL Beatles' Paul McCartney to make "special announcement" -- appearance likely to coincide with announcement from AAPL - AppleInsider -
Tuleb tõdeda, et enamus tänase Apple presentatsiooni ümber keerelnud kõlakaid on ka tõeks osutunud:
13:13 Apple is refreshing/replacing iPods - Bloomberg (143.25 )
13:15 Apple introduces new iPod Nano as rumored (143.70 )
13:26 Apple: New iPods nano already shipped, to be in stores this weekend (141.60 -2.55)
13:29 Apple iPod "classic" to come in 80gb and 160gb version (141.46 )
13:32 Apple introduces iPod touch as rumored (141.60 )
13:36 Apple iPod Touch has wi-fi, as rumored (142.20 -1.96) -
Kummaline, et AAPL sellise tanki tegi keset päeva.
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puhkajapojad, sell the news? Pealegi, nagu ma aru saan, Lennon ja McCartney mingi erilise teatega seal konverentsil siiski välja ei tulnud.
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Aga lubatud fragmendid Föderaalreservi Beezist raamatust siis (tundub pigem karmisõnaline):
Fed Beige Book: OUTSIDE OF REAL ESTATE, FINANCIAL MARKET TURMOIL HAD LIMITED EFFECT ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Fed beige book says U.S economy 'has continued to expand'
Fed's beige book says tigher mortgage lending standards having noticable effect on housing acitivity
Fed says several districts reported commercial real estate market experiencing tighter credit conditions
Fed Reserve found the effects of August credt-market rout on broader economy 'limited' beyond housing industry -Update-
FED says MOST DISTRICTS SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PRICE PRESSURES, NON-FOOD RETAILERS DISCOUNTING
Fed says SOME DISTRICTS BELIEVE SOFTNESS IN RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE TO CONTINUE,MORE PRICE FALLS POSSIBLE
Fed beige book says retail sales 'generally positive' -
Samuti teatatakse ka iPhone'i hinnakärpest:
14:15 AAPL Apple confirms iPhone Price at $399 for This Holiday Season; 4GB model will be sold while supplies last (140.62 -3.54) -Update-
Co confirms it is on track to sell its one millionth iPhone before the end of Sept, and to make iPhone affordable for even more customers this holiday season, it is lowering the price of the most popular iPhone model with 8GB of storage from $599 to just $399. The 8GB iPhone is available immediately for $399 in the US through Apple's retail and online stores and AT&T retail stores. The iPhone 4GB model will be sold while supplies last. -
Ja seni on Apple'i tugevuseks peetud seda, et ettevõte ei lähe oma toodete hindu kuigi nobedalt langetama?! Löök marginaalidele.
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Whats the news küsiks ma selle peale? Kas see, et AAPL on innovatiivne või see, et neil on tugev pipeline? Teinekord on turust ikka pea et võimatu aru saada. Käitutakse umbes nii, et ah jaa, keegi kuskil ütles, et selle the news ja näe täna ongi news, nyyd kõik hurraaga müüma.
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Apple'i ärakukkumine viimasel poolel tunnil võib veel kogu tehnoloogiasektorit allapoole tõmmata.
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Homme kell 14.30 Eesti aja järgi kuuleme Euroopa Keskpanga intressimäära otsusest. Kui eelmisel koosviibimisel viidati, et septembris võidakse määra 4% pealt 4.25% peale tõsta, siis viimastel päevadel on oluliselt suurenenud tõenäosus, et intressid jäetakse 4% peale - ning kui olukord finantsturgudel seda võimaldab, siis on juba kergem hiljem inflatsiooni vastu võitleva karmistava poliitikaga edasi minna ning intresside tõstmist aasta lõpu poole jätkata.
