Börsipäev 14. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Uudis küll eilne, kuid Apple fännidele tasub ära märkida. Ettevõte peab järgmisel teisipäeval Londonis konverentsi, millest oodatakse uudiseid iPhone'i müügi alustamise kohta Euroopas. Spekuleeritakse, et Saksamaal saab telefoni müügiõigused T-Mobile (Deutsche Telekom), Prantsumaal Orange (France Telekom) ja Suurbritannias O2 (Hispaania Telefonica üksus). Jutud käivad ka võimalikust 3G-st, sest kui USAs saadakse hakkama edge võrguga, siis Euroopas on 3G tunduvalt populaarsem.
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Väga varahommikused futuurid indikeerivad USA turgude negatiivset -0.4%list algust, kuid enne börsi avanemist kuuleme mitmest majandusraportist, mis olukorda muuta võivad:
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Järgmine lõik võtab päris hästi kokku, millised ohud finantssektori ettevõtete kasumeid ja bilansside usaldusväärsust ähvardavad:
The Wall Street Journal reports that next week, as investors pore over the books of Goldman (GS), Lehman (LEH), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bear Stearns (BSC), they will likely to home in on data that have only recently begun appearing in the firms' financial statements. Under a new accounting rule, firms are distinguishing between financial assets that have real market prices versus those based on models and those that are little more than management guesses. The upshot: Given current market stresses, bigger portions of the firms' securities holdings might fall into the category of management guesses, and relying on these estimates might not help restore investor confidence. The uncertainty surrounding assets based on estimates, given current market conditions, could affect investors' view of firms' book values. That could call into question bullish arguments that the firms are undervalued at current, historically low price-to-book-value multiples. In addition, if investors grow concerned about the true value of some of the assets on the firms' balance sheets, this could make them anxious about the amount of borrowed funds that the firms employ. Any change in sentiment on that score could force the firms to grow more conservative, leading to lower earnings.
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Eile tõstis Cannacord Adams RIMMi hinnasihti, täna tegi sama RBC, uus hinnasiht eelmise $83 asemel on $110. Eks Kanada enda poisid teavadki paremini :)
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Merrill Lynch downgrade'b täna hommikul Intelit (INTC) 'osta' pealt 'neutraalse' peale ning sama tehakse American Expressiga (AXP). Päris olulised liigutamised.
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Emgi küsis eilses börsipäeva foorumis commercial paper'i kohta. Panen siia ühe toreda lingi Föderaalreservi vastavatele graafikutele (CP graafik siis viimane). Kuigi graafikud on kõigest 7 aastat pikad, on hälbed tervikuna viimasel ajal ikka väga võimsad (ja äkilised) olnud.
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Oodatust nõrgemad jaemüüginumbrid lubavad jätkuvalt USA tarbija ostuvõimet kahtluse alla seada. Futuurid liikusid andmete peale allapoole:
Import Prices ex-oil -0.1%
Import Prices m/m -0.3% vs +1.5% consensus
Retail Sales ex-auto -0.4% vs +0.2% consensus
Retail Sales +0.3% vs +0.5% consensus
Import Prices y/y 1.9% , prior +2.8%
Current Account Balances -$190.8 bln vs -$190 bln consensus -
Northern Rocki, Suurbritannia suuruselt kolmanda laenaja, tänane põrumine aktsiaturul on ka USA investeerimispanku allapoole kerimas:
The U.K.'s third-largest lender, Northern Rock, declined 26% in European trading after it announced receiving emergency funding from the BoE to raise liquidity. Also, AXP shares saw a selloff in Europe after Merrill Lynch downgraded the shares, citing 'slowing US economic trends,' while both Deutsche Bank& Credit Suisse were also lower after Societe Generale downgraded the stocks. In turn, this is putting pressure on brokerage stocks before the open of US stock markets. In electronic pre~mkt trade BSC is trading @ 113.53 -0.80%, GS @ 187.00 -0.75%, JPM @ 45.20 -0.75%, & MS @ 66.15 -0.75% . Other names indicated lower include AXP, BAC, C, & LEH. -
Kui eile oli kogu pilt roheline, siis päevad pole vennad ning vähemasti Euroopas domineerib täna punane toon:
Saksamaa DAX -1.03%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.15%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -2.01%
Hispaania IBEX -2.03%
Venemaa RTS -0.32%
Poola WIG -0.92%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.94%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.47%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.70%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +5.72%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2.07%
Tai Set +0.72%
India Sensex -0.07%
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You Can Throw Logic Out the Window
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/14/2007 8:40 AM EDT
LOGIC, n.: The art of thinking and reasoning in strict accordance with the limitations and incapacities of the human misunderstanding.
-- Ambrose Bierce
Scientific research has shown that there is no strong correlation between IQ and wealth. People who are adept at logical thought and score well on IQ tests are no more likely to be wealthy than those who don't tend to think in logical, sequential patterns.
If you want proof of this, all you have to do is look at the action in the stock market. Logical thinking would very likely have left you feeling quite frustrated lately as the market has rallied sharply in the face of many negatives.
The essence of the logical inconsistency that presently exists is that we have the major market indices only slightly off their highs, but it is widely anticipated that the Fed will cut interest rates because of a number of economic and credit issues. How can it be that conditions are so poor as to prompt the Fed to act but the market is acting so well?
Yesterday, Bob Marcin pointed out in Columnist Conversation that the major indices are a bit misleading and that the average stock has corrected a fair amount. According to Bob, the median decline for stocks in the S&P 500 is 17% and the average decline is 20%.
The major indices certainly don't reflect that sort of weakness. They are capitalization-weighted, which means that the biggest stocks dominate the movement in the indices. Those big stocks have performed much better than many smaller stocks, and that is why the indices such as the Nasdaq 100 are only 3% off recent highs.
So the market may not be as strong as it appears at first glance, which would be consistent with the economic, real estate and credit issues that are in the headlines every day. Nonetheless, there is still some pretty good buying interest out there, as we saw yesterday. The bulls are not running scared at this point, at least not when it comes to buying some bigger-cap stocks.
What is throwing logic off at the moment is the intense focus on an interest rate cut. Everyone knows that the initial response to an interest rate cut is almost always positive. When rates go down, money is cheaper, and that is good for stocks.
The market is anticipating this positive reaction to a Fed interest rate cut next week and no one really want to be on the wrong side of that at the moment. Given the big move in the market off the August low, it certainly would seem that we have priced in a good amount of the positive impact of a rate cut. On the other hand, market players are hesitant to be negative now because no one knows how gleeful investors might be Tuesday when the Fed issues its announcements.
This morning we are seeing a reminder of the problems that may be lurking out there. A large bank in the U.K. was bailed out by the Bank of England and issued a profit warning. That is a reminder that credit issues may still be lurking out there and may pop up again at any time.
We have a very weak start to the day, and it is likely going to be very volatile as trading ranks are thin due to the Rosh Hashanah holiday and positioning in anticipation of the Fed move next week. We have oil ticking down after hitting a record high and gold is pulling back as well. Fasten on your trading helmet and adjust your goggles. It is going to be a tricky one today.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on news: GGBM +9.0% (received an order for two 100 megabit WiFiber links from MetroNext), UNG +4.2% (nat gas recovering much of yesterday's losses as seasonal buying ramps up, traders look at yesterday's selloff as a buying opportunity, with Tropical Storm Ingrid also contributing to the strength), CRXL +3.2% (co announces that its researchers have discovered a monoclonal antibody that is active against H5N1 avian influenza), FTEK +2.9% (upgraded to Buy at ThinkEquity), NGSX +2.5% (profiled in Inside Wall Street - BusinessWeek Online), RIMM +1.3% (tgt upped to $110 at RBC, initiated with an Outperform & $100 tgt at BMO).
Allapoole avanevad:
On weak earnings/guidance: LSCC -9.2%... Financials gapping down on multiple items, with BoE providing emergency funding to Northern Rock, AXP being downgraded at Merrill Lynch, and DB and CS being downgraded at Societe Generale: BSC -4.9%, BSC -2.3%, GS -2%, LEH -1.9%, MS -1.3%, JPM -0.8%... Other news: SHPGY -9.2% (Vyvanse hyperactivity medicine misses analysts estimates), JASO -4.4% (Terminates agreement with former PowerLight Corporation), IMCL -4% (downgraded to at Freidman Billings), BOBJ -3% (downgraded to at First Albany), CFC -3% (Wachovia lowers mortgage production estimates) -
Makrostatistika viitab pigem sellele, et Fed peaks intressilangetamistes ettevaatlik olema (ja mitte 0.5% tänasest määrast maha võtma). Väike mõttelõng sel teemal ka RealMoney'st:
When the Fed began cutting interest rates in January 2001, the capacity utilization rate of U.S. industry had fallen for eight months and was at 79.1%. Last month, the capacity utilization rate was at 82.2%, according to data released at 9:15 a.m. EDT today by the Federal Reserve.
The current level is the highest since last August and a percentage point above the 20-year average. The Fed can of course lower interest rates when the capacity utilization rate is high, but it is important to note that throughout the Fed's 2004-2006 rate hike cycle, the Fed repeatedly noted that high levels of resource utilization were putting upward pressure on inflation.
Moreover, the capacity utilization rate is now much higher than where it was when the Fed began its series of interest rate hikes in June 2004; the capacity rate then was 77.4%.
The continued high level of resource utilization hence favors a 25 basis point cut more so than a 50 basis point cut, even when accounting for the risk of a decrease in the capacity utilization rate. -
Väga madala käibega päev on seni olnud (lisaks tavapärasele reedele osaliselt ka juudi uusaasta pidustuste tõttu ja kuna ei juleta enne investeerimispankade tulemusi panustada). Kui peaks kellelgi suurem müügihuvi olema, on raske siit päeva muutuse nulltasemetelt seda teha.
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Northern Rocki probleemid on jõudnud suurele ekraanile - ja seda eelkõige Brittide reaktsiooni tõttu panga probleemidele. Valitsuse üleskutsele mitte paanitseda ja raha välja võtma tormata, vastas üks kontori taga seisnud mees niimoodi: " Kui valitsus palub mul mitte paanitseda, siis mina hakkan muretsema...". Reedesed järjekorrad Northern Rocki kontorite taga paisusid laupäevaks üksnes veelgi pikemaks. BBC-st näeb ka pilte ja saab rohkem lugeda:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6997197.stm -
Northern Rockiga toimuv on tõesti karm. Bank-run kõige ehedamal kujul. Ma saan aru, et reedel võeti 40mld dollarist deposiitidest välja 2mld dollarit. Kogu varade maht oli poolaasta lõpu seisuga ca 113mld naela ehk 230mld dollarit.
Poolaastaaruanne on huvitav. Räägitakse turuosast, dividendide suurendamisest jne. Need numbrid ei huvita tänases seisus enam kedagi. -
Üpris rõve see Northern Rocki juhtum. Tegemist ei ole ju nurgatagause äriga vaid suuruselt 3...5 mortgage lender UK-s (täpsemad andmed mul puuduvad). Ja inimesed on nii paanikas. Mis siis saaks kui tuleks teade Swedbanki või SEB likviidsusprobleemidest? Ma tean siiamaani inimesi, kes pankasid põhimõtteliselt ei usalda, sest: "seal varastatakse inimeste raha ja pangad lähevad pankrotti!" Kohalikus sootsiumis lihtsalt on inimesi kelle närvikava pankade stabiilsuse küsimuses pole kõige tugevam.
Kas oleks kuidagi enamvähem adekvaatselt võimalik teada saada kui palju juba pangast hoiustajate raha välja on voolanud? Likviidsuskriis pangal nagunii ja siis veel välja voolavad hoiused. Julm. -
Soovitan lugeda ft.com-ist intervjuud Greenspaniga. Paljude asjade osas olen samal meelel. Näiteks meeldib mulle see, et kaudselt ütleb ta laenude väärtpaberistamise kohta "mõttetu". Aga viimastel aastatel on finantssektoris eriti populaarne olnud, kui pillud termineid CDS, CDO jne. Greenspan küll default swapi kaitseb ja arvab, et ehk see toode on ikka "here to stay", aga ülejäänud crapi kohta ütleb, et tänaseks on selge, et turg ei oska neid hinnastada.
Ja inflatsiooni/intressimäärade osas mulle tema kommentaarid ka meeldivad. Ja täna on tõesti valus hetk. Annad intressimäärades järele, tuleb inflatsioon. Samas liiga karm ka olla ei saa. Turg müüb varade hinnad alla ja kogu turg on hädasolijaid täis. Rasked valikud.
Nafta osas on G. bullish. Näeb lähiajal 100 dollari taset. Õige. Tähtis on võimalikult varakult nendele sadadele miljonitele potentsiaalsetele tarbijatele selgeks teha, kes kontrollivad maailma ja maavarad pole kõigile tarbimiseks mõeldud. Kui oled ikka sissetuleku poolest maailmas 4. detsiilis või tagapool, siis nafta ja metallini ei ulatu ja sõidad eesliga. -
Ah jaa, lisaks muidugi "maturity mismatch'i" teema. See ongi ju tegelikult mortgage lender'ite suurimaks probleemiks. Portfell kasvas meeletu kiirusega, kõik lugesid turuosa ja kütsid laene 30 aastaks välja. Funding on aga sisuliselt kindlustamata. Ja nüüd ongi kogu üritus kanajalgadel.
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ära pabla. tuleb bernanke ja alandab intressid kasvõi -1% (miinus üks protsent) peale. et aga läbu ikka edasi kestaks :)
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WSJ kirjutab, et Northern Rockist on juba üle 4% hoiustest välja võetud. Ja see peaks kasvama alates tänasest kiiresti, kuna avatakse postkontorid ja inimesed saavad sedaviisi oma raha välja võtta.
Eestis on kohustuslik reservmäär 13% (võin eksida numbriga, kuid suurusjärk on sama), kuid vanades liidumaades peaks see olema kuskil 3-5%. Asjad kisuvad hapuks?
