Börsipäev 27. september
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Täna lõpetas uuel rekordtasemel Hong Kongi indeks Hang Seng, sulgudes esmakordselt üle 27000 punkti piiri. Põhiliselt spekuleeritakse USA intressikärbetele. Plussis on lõpetanud ka ülejäänud suuremad Aasia majandused.
Kuna ka viimast päeva kajastavat Hang Sengi graafikut on küllalt keeruline leida, peate leppima allolevaga. On küll eraldi graafikuid tänase päeva kohta, kuid millegipärast neid pikema perioodi graafikutel ei näidata.
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Deutsche Bank kommenteeris General Motorsiga toimuvat järgmiselt:
GM/UAW deal looks like a big positive
Given the information disclosed so far, we continue to believe that the 2007 UAW labor contract could represent a major inflection point for GM’s competitiveness. We believe that total gross cost savings from this contract could potentially reach $3.5-4.0 bn. In fact, on a pro forma basis, and assuming that current market share levels hold, we believe that GM should be able to sustain positive free cash flow all the way down to a low 15’s SAAR. We maintain our buy based on total potential upside to our $45 price target.
We anticipate a change in investor perception
This improvement in cash flow, a significant reduction of liabilities, and the elimination of healthcare inflation risk should argue for multiple expansion. At the very least, U.S. auto stocks may come back onto the radar screens for many investors who had previously written these companies off due to insurmountable (and unquantifiable) liabilities and competitiveness challenges. Once the labor situation becomes clearer, the questions facing GM largely boil down to brands and products.
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HANG SENG graafik.
Täna veel rida makrot:
8.30 meie ajajärgi 15.30
-GDP-Final
-Chain Deflator-Final
-Initial Claims
ja 10.00 ma 17.00
-Help-Wanted Index
-New Home Sales -
Viimastel päevadel on levimas kuuldused, et Bear Stearns peab läbirääkimisi 20% osaluse müügiks. Kosilaste nimed on paljutõotavad: Bank of America, Warren Buffett, Wachovia ja kaks Hiina institutsiooni ehk Citic Group ja China Construction Bank. Viimase investeerimissoovist on räägitud juba 2006. aastast, kuid asja pole veel saanud.
Investorite seisukohast peaks ostul jumet olema, ajalooliselt on investeerimispangad muutunud odavaks, kui on liigutud oma book value poole. Selle lähedal kaubeldi augusti põhjade juures, tänaseks on tagasi jõutud 1.4 alla. Ka Bear Stearnsi jaoks oleks müük asjakohane, kuna sellega tugevdataks bilanssi, partneritel taastuks usaldus ning likviidsus ei oleks nii suur mureallikas.
Eelpool toodud nimedest tunduvad kõige loogilisemad kaks viimast, Bear saaks väljundi uuele turule ning hiinlased vajalikku teavet ja kogemusi. Buffetti osas ollakse skeptilisemad, 1990. aastal juhitud Salomon Brothers ei olnud just helge mälestus. Arvatavasti läheks see ka vastuollu Buffetti investeerimispõhimõtetega, et keerulistesse asjadesse pole vaja investeerida. Finantsderivatiivid seda kahtlemata on, Buffett ise on derivatiive kutsunud “financial weapons of mass destruction” ja nende loojad on “madmen”. Samal arvamusel on ka Kass, kelle arvates ei soovi investeerimisguru sinna oma raha paigutanud, kuna on ka ise korduvalt viidanud oma vigadele Salomonis.
Bloombergi videos toob Punk Ziegeil anlüütik välja, et hiinlaste investeeringu puhul laienetaks uutele turgudele, aga paraneks ka tooteportfell, mis Bearil nõrgaks on jäänud. Samuti vajatakse juhtkonna tasemel ettevõttesse uut verd. Täpsemaid uudiseid strateegilise investori kohta võiks oodata oktoobri algusest, kui Bear Stearns peab oma investorite päeva.
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Bloomberg on ühendanud krediidikriisi ja Chuck Norrise.
The Chuck Norris dollar buys 3 Canadian dollars, and trades at parity with the euro.
When the yield on a Chuck Norris bond goes up, the price also rises.
Chuck Norris trades on fear and greed simultaneously.
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Microsoftist sai paar päeva tagasi juttu tehtud Pro all. Nüüdseks on Xbox 360 eksklusiivne mäng 'Halo 3' välja lastud ning esmased tulemused on küll rõõmustavad:
MSFT Microsoft's "Halo 3” registers biggest day in US entertainment history with $170 mln in sales (29.50 )
Co announced that the Xbox 360 exclusive game "Halo 3" has officially become the biggest entertainment launch in history, garnering an estimated $170 mln in sales in the United States alone in the first 24 hours. The Xbox 360 title beat previous records set by blockbuster theatrical releases like "Spider-man 3" and novels such as "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows." Bob McKenzie, Senior Vice President of Merchandising for GameStop (GME) Corp commented that, "With consumer demand for Halo 3 and related products, we expect it to be the biggest video game title generator in GameStop's history." -
SLM käis eilse börsipäeva foorumi lõpust läbi, kuid väike inglisekeelne kokkuvõte artiklist, mis ilmus WSJ's. Üha enam tuleb teateid selle kohta, et varem kokkulepitud hindadega ülevõtutehingutest tahetakse loobuda. SLM on järgmine neist ning kohtuveskid saavad taas jahvatama hakata, kellel on õigus - kas ettevõtte müüjal (et leping on sõlmitud) või ostjal (et vahepeal on äri oluliselt halvemaks läinud):
SLM Buyout groups balk at Sallie Mae - WSJ (45.01 )
The Wall Street Journal reports the group buying Sallie Mae (SLM), J.C. Flowers, is seeking to back out of the $25 bln price. Christopher Flowers informed a group of UBS bankers that he wasn't prepared to pay the $60-a-share price he had agreed to in April, according to two people briefed on the discussion. Mr. Flowers said, however, he was open to renegotiating the price. Mr. Flowers is making a pragmatic argument, said one of these people, who is in the Flowers camp: Should the deal fall apart, Sallie Mae's share price could fall, perhaps to as low as $35. Mr. Flowers's legal argument stems from the interpretation of the merger agreement's "Material Adverse Effect" clause. These clauses typically allow a buyer to walk away from a transaction if certain conditions change substantially between a deal's announcement and its closing. The buying group has argued two material changes at Sallie Mae: Legislation governing student-lending practices set to be enacted today will have a worse affect on its business than allowed for in the contract, the Flowers group said. Second, the overall economic environment has changed in a way that makes conditions unacceptable for closing the deal, according to a statement by the buying group. "It's obvious to the average observer that the legislative and financing environment has changed," said the person in the Flowers camp. Sallie Mae Chairman Albert Lord has taken a tough stand against these arguments, according to another person who has been briefed on Mr. Lord's conversations with investors. Mr. Lord contends the merger agreement allows for the financial impact of the law. In all, the law is expected to harm Sallie Mae's net income by about 2% annually over the next five years, the co said in a statement. Mr. Lord also has argued that Mr. Flowers praised the merits of the deal to investors even after the legislation came to light, further undercutting the claims of a material adverse effect. Sallie Mae said it "intends to pursue all remedies available to it to the fullest extent permitted by law." Should the buyout group breach the agreement, damages are capped at a $900 mln termination fee. -
NotableCalls vahendab täna Piperi kommentaari Apple kohta iPodide müügi osas. Target $211..
http://notablecalls.blogspot.com/ -
Majadeehitaja KBH teatas oma tulemused. Pilt ei ole parem kui hiljuti Lennari poolt kirjeldatud olukord
KBH reports loss of $6.19 per share, includes non-cash charges of $690.1 mln related to inventory and joint venture impairments and the abandonment of land option contracts, and includes $107.9 mln related to goodwill impairment, may not be comparable to the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.71); revenues fell 32.4% year/year to $1.54 bln vs the $1.59 bln consensus.
Firma juht ütleb järgmist (ei midagi väga uut muidugi):
"Our third quarter results reflect the seriously challenging market conditions that prevail for homebuilders across most of the nation. The oversupply of unsold new and resale homes and downward pressure on new home values has worsened in many of our markets as tighter lending standards, low affordability and greater buyer caution suppress demand, while higher foreclosure activity combined with heightened builder and investor efforts to monetize their real estate investments boost supply. The negative impact of these conditions on our selling prices and gross margins prompted us to take substantial write-downs of inventory and goodwill in the third quarter. At this time, we see no signs that the housing market is stabilizing and believe it will be some time before a recovery begins. We expect housing industry conditions to continue to worsen through the end of the year and into 2008. Rising foreclosure rates are intensifying the problem of surplus inventory and will likely drive further home price reductions."
Lisaks langetab Goldman Sachs Danaheri (DHR) reitingut.
Bank of America langetab Starbucksi (SBUX) reitingu "müü" peale järgmistel põhjustel:
"We believe that with slower growth continuing in fiscal 2008 and risk to estimates due to internal and external operating challenges, the stock and valuation may be under pressure. Although we believe that the company controls a very strong brand and can continue to grow, we believe the pace of growth will be slower (with international business still too small to make significant contribution to operating profits - and could be several years away from such a contribution) and that expectations are too high for a short-term recovery. Based on our review of other well-regarded retailers and restaurants that experienced multiple compression due to slowing growth rates, we believe that there is downside risk to the current P/E multiple of 25x and risk to our current below-consensus 2008 EPS estimates."
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Goldman downgraded DHR to neutral from buy, saying valuation is near peak
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speedy, Goldmaniga nõus igati : )
KBH kohta võib veel nii palju öelda, et sarnaselt LENiga moodustab ettevõtte tegevus ca Californias ja Floridas 50% kasumist (2006. aasta lõpu seisuga). Seega ei tohiks tegelikult väga suure üllatusega tegu olla. Lähemalt ei ole veel raportit jõudnud uurida, kuid mahakirjutamised tunduvad samuti üpriski suured olevat. -
ilmselt praegu yhtegi halb uudis turgu ei myju ja nagu kyikde finantskriiside puhul turg langeb sel hetkel kui mitu firmat nt. BSC vyi LEH lihtsalt pankrotti lahevad ja teised ja pakku neile abi ja hakkab paanika, USA turul ostavad hullult ja myyvad ka kyik korraga....
arvan et 2008.a. kvartalliks juba aktsiat 30 % odavam kui praegu -
renessanss, BSC või LEH põhja minek on ikka suhteliselt väikese võimalusega. Jah, usun, et nendel firmadel on probleeme, ning tegu on pullilõksuga, kuid pankrotini on siit ikka veel tükk maad...
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Olen sinuga nyus Oliver, samas aga meenutades ajaloolisi juhtumi nt Enroni-ga vyi 1998.a. HK pankade ja teisi fin institutsioonide krahhi ei nae ma nii palju optimismi mida naevad praegu NYSE osalejad rate cutis nt GOOG mis on praegu tipus samas aga teatas enda kehvades majandustulemustes ja juuli lyppus langes parast seda paeva jooksul 10 %, vyib olla sellest hetkest kylastajate arv kahekorditunud vyi...... aga varsti arvan teavitab nagu IBM et investeerinud nt kinnisvara midagi ja siis langeb 400 ni vyi isegi 200 arvestades p/e
muidugi liiga kategooriline olen aga arvestades seda et Rooma, NLiit ja Hitleri Saksamaa isegi omal ajal langes julgen arvata et mitu spekulandid manipuleerivad turuga ja sellised aktsiad nagu GOOG on ainult enda portfelli turuvaartuse tystmiseks tehtud -
Turud on jätkuvalt positiivsetes meeleoludes. Mitmel pool Aasia turgudel on tehtud uued aasta tipud, kuid tuleb tunnistada, et parabooli kuju võtvad liikumised on selged märgid ülekuumenemisest:
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0.65%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.77%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.09%
Hispaania IBEX +0.61%
Venemaa RTS +0.50%
Poola WIG +0.50%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.41%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.40%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.33%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.30%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.47%
Tai Set -0.16%
India Sensex +1.35%
USA alustab päeva poole protsenti kõrgemalt.
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Saddle Up for Some Momentum
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/27/2007 8:48 AM EDT
Better to be without logic than without feeling.
-- Charlotte Bronte
An article about money managers in The Wall Street Journal this morning states that 28% of them who answered a survey believe stocks are undervalued, vs. 21% who thought so three months ago. The survey was conducted a few weeks ago before the Fed interest rate cut, so maybe those numbers are not as high now, but it is interesting to consider that as the bad economic and credit news has flowed, more professionals think the market is "cheap."
Trying to value the overall market strikes me as a nearly impossible task, but it is striking that some are seeing stocks as better bargains even though there is increased danger of a recession and the possibility that earnings for the third quarter will not have a lot of upside.
I imagine that many money managers will argue that stocks are cheaper because of the impact of lower interest rates. Of course, that argument assumes that forward earnings will not be reduced if and when the economy slows.
My point here is that the logic underlying this market is tricky. I have to wonder if buyers are buying first and worrying about justifications second simply because things are acting so well - "With things so strong, there must be good reason for it and we'll find a reason to explain it."
The problem is that this assumes that the market is rational. The market isn't logical. It is highly emotional and always goes too far in one direction or the other. Rallies last longer than we think and downtrends go lower than seems reasonable. Invariably there are folks who will try to come up with logical reasons while the market will continue in its current direction even as it becomes increasingly stretched. They will make valuation or technical arguments to justify their positions, but they overlook the most important thing of all which is the emotionality that is at work.
We have a very high level of emotions at work right now. Traders are almost giddy over some of the action in China-related stocks and various high-beta technology issues. They are chasing aggressively and are being rewarded with big moves.
It would be foolish for a trader not to jump in and embrace this action, but it would be even more foolish to argue that it justified based on valuations or technicals. We have some good old-fashioned momentum at play, and it will eventually end badly, like it always does. The big question is when, and anyone who thinks they can answer that question is fooling themselves.
We have a strong open brewing once again. There isn't any particularly positive news, but overseas markets were strong, and traders are anxious for more action.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
On M&A news: TRFX +68.1% (co and NWMO.OB to merge; TRFX shareholders will receive approximately 0.683 of a share of NWMO.OB)... Continued momentum in China names: KONG +29.1%, CBAK +22.5%, LTON +13.1%, SDTH +12.9%, JRJC +9.3% (tgt upped to $35 at Brean Murray), KUN +8.3%, CNTF +7.9%, CDS +4.6%, YTEC +7.3%, FFHL +6.5%... China telecoms rise on continued restructuring speculation: CHA +13.2%, CHU +9.3%, CHL +4.6%, CN +2.4%... Other news: SIGA +13.5% (announces ST-246 completely prevents mortality in Symptomatic Orthopox Virus infected primates), SPAR +7.6% (announces $52 mln subcontract for MRAPs), BTE +7.3% (positive Cramer mention), DIVX +7.7% (co and Yahoo! announce two yr distribution deal with Yahoo! toolbar and Internet Explorer 7), SLM +5.9% (WSJ reported J.C. Flowers is open to renegotiating; FBR says deal could potentially be repriced in the $55-$57 per share range), WEN +3.5% (WSJ reports that new bidders for co join line for next round), LDK +3.5% (announced five-year contract to supply multicrystalline solar wafers to Taiwan-based Mosel Vitelic), ALU +3.1% (upgraded to Buy at Dresdner Kleinwort), AMR +2.9% (FL Group urges American Airlines to consider all options to enhance shareholder value), INFY +2.5% (gains in India on speculation it may raise forecast - Bloomberg.com), EBAY +1.6% (ests raised at tier-1 firm).
Allapoole avanevad:
On weak earnings/guidance: XRTX -6.2%, RAD -5%, PAYX -2.9%, KBH 1.6%... Other news: CNIC -4.5% (profit taking following yesterday's strong move), SIGM -2.7% (announces pricing of public offering of 4 mln shares of common stock), SBUX -2.5% (downgraded to Sell at BofA), ZNH -2.3% (still checking for anything new), CMO -2.1% (announces pricing of public offering of common stock). -
New Home Sales 795K vs 830K
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tänasel päeval vist ei ole tõendid kinnisvarasektori & majaehitajate viletsast seisust turu jaoks uudiskünnist ületavad, kerge nõks alla ja seejärel taastumine
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Ega vist, KBH ei liigu samuti eriti palju...
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nojah, halbade uudiste korral on nüüd varnast võtta vabandus, et need numbrid on nüüd pärit eelajaloolisest ajast kui USA intressimäärad veel 50 bp kõrgemal olid ja ei loe täna enam ... mis muidugi ka osaliselt tõsi on
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Joeli lõunase kommentaari juurde lisaks, et UBS andis GME'le täna downgrade, kuid hinnasiht tõsteti 65 peale. Aktsia uudise peale 5% miinuses. Kuigi GME on aasta prognoose tõstnud ning pole välistatud, et ka neid ületatakse, oli kainenemist igaljuhul vaja.
UBS believes that implied return is insufficient to rate the stock Buy. Firm notes that the stock has more than doubled YTD, and while strong sentiment, industry momentum, and positive nearterm catalysts should enable it to reach their price target, they see limited upside potential from there. The firm expects 3Q results to exceed guidance on the strength of Halo 3 (MSFT), continued industry momentum (hardware and software), market share gains, and more solid execution. That said, 4Q upside may be more muted given already high expectations and tough comps post Wii/PS3 hardware launches last year. Additionally, UBS thinks it will be difficult for guidance heading into '08 to significantly exceed high expectations. -
Altria Group Inc. (MO) on Thursday filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission to spin off its international tobacco unit, Philip Morris International Inc. Each Altria stockholder will receive one share of Philip Morris International's common stock for each Altria share owned, New York-based Altria said in the SEC filing. Following the spinoff, Altria common stock will continue to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol MO and Philip Morris International's common stock will trade on the New York Stock Exchange separately.
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Oleme jõudnud tagasi faasi, kus kuulujutud ja arvamused liigutavad miljoneid dollareid:
Bear Stearns sees sudden 2.6 pt drop after CNBC's David Faber comments he's hearing that BSC is not in talks with anyone regarding sale of stake in co:
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aga turg, mis uudise peale tõusis, on samal tasemel, isegi kõrgemal, huvitav kas nordea spekul. said aluse samast allkast:)?
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Jah, praegune turg meenutab ilusat mai-juuni olukorda, kus olid ka head uudised tõusu katalüsaatoriks ja halvad uudised samamoodi. See hirm, mis oli poolteist kuud tagasi on nagu halb uni, mis hommikuse näo värskendusveega alla läheb. Võidusõidu hobustele on jälle silmaklapid pähe torgatud ja sõit käib täie hooga. Niikaua kuni need väga halbade uudiste ( ei tea, mis on sellele turule tõsiselt võetav halb uudis ) saatel maha rebitakse. Niikaua jälgime sõittu. :)
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Goldman Sachs joins the bears
Goldman Sachs has abandoned its ultra-bullish view of the world economy, warning of a likely recession in Japan and mounting risks that the US property slump could spread to parts of Europe, reports the Daily Telegraph. In a new report on the global economic “crunch”, Goldman’s chief economist Jim O’Neill says while BRIC countries remain a bright spot, it is no longer certain that Asia and Europe can pick up the growth baton as America stumbles. In an abrupt shift for the bank known as the “cheer leader” of the global boom, the report warns that turmoil is spreading beyond the debt markets to the factory floor. -
Goldmani tasub üldiselt kuulata - seda näitasid ka ettevõtte hiljutised tulemused, et intellektuaalne kapital on neil hea (mäletavasti nädal aega tagasi teatatud tulemustest selgus, et lühikese positsiooniga hüpoteeklaenude turul on tehtud märkimisväärset raha) ning vähemasti viimastel kvartalitel on turutrende väga hästi ette prognoositud.
