Börsipäev 9. oktoober
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Täna tuleb peale turu sulgumist tulemustega Alcoa (AA), avades nii tulemustehooaja. Samuti avaldatakse FOMC 18. septembri koosoleku protokoll (18:00 GMT).
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Deutsche Bank alandas Coca Cola (KO) soovituse osta pealt hoia peale.
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AT&T buys Aloha Partners wireless spectrum for $2.5 bln
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Google tgt raised to $670 from $620 at BofA
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Täna avaldati siis augustikuu Saksamaa tööstustoodangu numbrid ning pessimistidele sealsed näidud veel tuge ei paku – tootmine kasvas eelmise kuuga võrreldes +1.7%, millega löödi väga tugevasti +0.5%list ootust.
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Täna hommikul teatas lasteriideid müüv Children's Place (PLCE), et septembrikuised võrreldavate poodide müüginäitajad on kehvad - täpsemalt -3% vs +1% briefingu prognoos. Samuti näeb firma kolmanda kvartali EPSi vähemalt 60% madalamal oma eelneva prognoosi alumisest äärest ($0.94-1.02). Neljanda kvartali ja 2007. aasta EPSi prognoositakse nüüd tunduvalt madalamal eelnevast vahemikust.
Prognooside langetamine ning septembrikuiste müügitrendide halvenemine tuletab meelde hiljutisi Lowe's (LOW) ja Targeti (TGT) kommentaare. Kuid PLCE süüdistab ilma. Firma juhi sõnul on süüdi välised faktorid ning eriti just soe ilm kuu viimase kümne päeva jooksul. See omakorda on tähendanud oodatust suuremaid hindade alandamiseid ning suurenenud varusid. Olen nõus juhtkonna väitega, et välised faktorid on mängus - juhtkond on pidanud juba mitmendat kvartalit järjest investoritele pettumust valmistama. Faktorina pean silmas pigem keerulist makrokeskkonda - 10 soojema päeva pärast alandada kvartaliprognoosi 60%? sounds fishy. Seda enam, et näiteks konkureeriv GYMB on pidanud samuti prognoose langetama juba varem. -
Banc of America on ennekõike üllatunud märkisväärse päringute kasvu üle. Kuna perioodil juuli-august 07 suurenes otsingute arv 60% Y/Y ja teises kvartalis 54% Y/Y, tõstetakse 3Q07 käibeprognoosi $2.97mld pealt $3 miljardile, EBITDA-d $1.68 miljardilt $1.75 miljardile ja EPS-i $3.77 pealt $3.89-le. Positiivseteks faktoriteks veel turuosa suurenemine välismaale, kaasaarvatud Hiinas; dollari nõrgenemine; pole toimunud kardetud aeglustumist finantsteenuseid puudutavates reklaamides; algoritmilised muutused reklaami paigutamisel lehe ülaservas.
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VALUECLICK INC (NasdaqGS:VCLK) Pre-Market: 27.90 2.38 (+9.33%) as of 8:25AM ET on 10/09/07 - kas teab keegi põhjust positiivsuseks? Või spekulatsioonid YHOO Alibaba.com ostu taustal? Tänud ette :-)
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mehve, tegu Crameri kommentaaridega, mis spekulatiivsust on toonud:
Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap - TheStreet.com : On Monday's edition, Jim claims ValueClick (VCLK) is the next co to be acquired. Before Microsoft's (MSFT) acquisition of aQuantive, aQuantive was in merger talks with ValueClick, Cramer explained. Now Brian McAndrews, the former CEO of aQuantive, is a "key player" in Microsoft's online ad business, and Cramer believes ValueClick still has a chance of getting bought out. Microsoft might make this "defensive acquisition" of ValueClick, or there's a possibility Yahoo! (YHOO) could pick it up if it wants to stay competitive, he said. -
Tänud Oliver ! Igatahes teeb meele rõõmsaks - oman aug ostetud 03/2008 calle strike 25 pealt.
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LDK annab selgitusi.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071009/aqtu127.html?.v=19 -
Aktsiaturgudel domineerivad positiivsed meeleolud ning enamus turgudest plussis - India kogunisti üle 4%. Arvestada tasuks aga sellega, et tulemuste hooaeg ukse ees ning on võimalik, et oleme juuliga sarnases olukorras, kus enne tulemusi olid ootused kõrgeks aetud ning ilusad numbrid polnud investoritele enam piisvalt ilusad....
Saksamaa DAX +0.36%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.35%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.93%
Hispaania IBEX +0.27%
Venemaa RTS +0.44%
Poola WIG +2.01%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 N/A +0.56%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.65%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.41%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.04%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.45%
Tai Set +0.68%
India Sensex +4.51%
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Don't Overthink this Uptrending Market
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/9/2007 8:46 AM EDT
A fool without fear is sometimes wiser than an angel with fear.
-- Nancy Astor
One of the ironic things about the stock market is that if you think too hard, it can be very easy to miss out on some substantial gains. While many pros have been spending their time telling us why this market can't possibly continue to be so strong, the foolish bulls who harbor no doubts have been racking up some great profits.
With the credit problems, slowing economy, real estate meltdown, high oil and weak dollar, it has been very easy to make a strong case for why this market is likely to crack and start downtrending. The logic is compelling but for one very important fact: prices keep going up.
For whatever reason, buyers continue to buy. They are exhibiting little fear or doubt when it comes to certain key stocks like Google (GOOG) , Apple (AAPL) and Research In Motion (RIMM) . Buyers just keep on buying, and they are being rewarded for it.
This sort of action won't last forever, but it is dominating at present. It is a bit worrisome that the action was so narrow yesterday with only a small group of stocks leading the market, but the mood remains very upbeat, and trying to determine when we might top out is a dangerous and futile exercise.
The biggest potential danger for this market is third-quarter earnings, which kick off tonight with a report from Alcoa (AA) and then General Electric (GE) on Friday. Market participants appear to be quite sanguine about what reports will hold, but it is going to be the reaction to reports as they roll out that will tell us what the mood really is.
The higher the market goes before earnings hit the more danger there is that we will see a "sell the news" reaction. Keep that in mind as you ride the current momentum.
We have a positive start on the way as Google receives a price target increase and overseas markets percolate higher. Oil and gold are trading down.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: LDK +13.7% (raises Q3 revenue guidance above consensus; says no merit to allegations), YUM +5.8%, MOS +4.3%... M&A: MNG +19.2% (to be acquired by Newmont for C$6.25 per share)... China-related momentum continues: STV +23.5% (China IPO continues to run; Cramer made positive comments last night -- see 8:29 comment for details), YTEC +12.7% (announces risk management consulting and implementation contract wins), RCH +11.7%, CHNR +7.5%, CSUN +6.2%, ATS +6.0%, KUN +5.3%... Other news: HOKU +17.2% (announces TCS engineering contract for Hoku Materials' polysilicon plant), WGO +10.9% (upgraded to Outperform at RBC), VCLK +9.3% (Cramer says VCLK is the next co to be acquired), ALTI +8.1% (co and AVAV announced successful demonstration of an all-electric delivery vehicle), JAKK +6.6% (positive Cramer comments), MSFT +1.1% (estimates raised at Goldman - Bloomberg).
Allapoole avanevad:
On weak earnings/guidance: PLCE -15.1%, TMA -10% (revises estimates on asset sales and related losses announced in August), MCHP -6.3% (also downgraded to Neutral at Merrill and AmTech), JCI -2.8%, S -1.6% (guidance, announced departure of CEO) ... Other news: VG -7.8% (profit taking following yesterday's 65% run on S settlement news), GOLD -3% (downgraded to Neutral at HSBC), COGN -2.9% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies and Roth, downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), JBLU -2.7% (downgraded to neutral at tier 1 firm). -
Täna on liikunud kuulujutud, et Samsung on huvitatud PANList, makstes aktsia eest $30. Igal juhul on see kuulukas tekitanud aktsias nii suure huvi, et hind on kerkinud võrreldes eilsega 5.5%. Ei oska öelda, kas kuulukas on õige või vale, kuid arvestades, et OLED päris korraliku preemiaga üle võeti, siis see väga võimatu ei tundugi. PANL on Samsungiga ka tihedalt seotud arendustöö, litsentside ja lepingute kaudu.
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Föderaalreservi protokollini veel kümmekond minutit aega, kuid täna esineb Poole ning sõnavõtt selline:
Poole says the Fed has neither the power nor the desire to bail out bad investments
Poole says homebuyers delaying purchases, wanting lower prices
Poole says jobs figures suggest 'downside risks' not occurring
Poole says although there is a substantial way to go, restoration of normal trading is under way
Fed's Poole says we are in uncharted territory on outlook for house prices, forecasts very uncertain
Poole says markets fragile, sees 'substantial distance to go'
POOLE-FINANCIAL MARKET WOES STEMMED FROM OLD-FASHIONED BORROWING AND LENDING MISTAKES
Poole-Financial market woes stemmed from old-fashioned borrowing and lending mistakes
Poole says financial markets 'appear to be stabilizing'
Fed's Poole - Jobs data does not suggest the downside risks economists see are materializing -
Föderaalreserv on valmis intresse veelgi alandama - majanduse pärast ollakse mures ning 18. septembri andmete põhjal usutakse, et inflatsiooni suudetakse ka madalamate intressidega ohjes hoida.
FED says MORE CONFIDENT DECLINE IN INFLATION WOULD BE SUSTAINED
FED says CONSUMER SPENDING LIKELY TO EXPAND MODERATELY, BACKED BY JOBS, INCOME GROWTH
FOMC Minutes: Given financial shock, outlook for economic activity highly uncertain, risks skewed to downside
Further Employment slowdown likely-- FOMC
FED says CUT WOULD WOULD NOT IMPAIR REPRICING OF RISK, GAINS OR LOSSES IN FINANCIAL MARKETS
Fed agreed to consider more options "closely" after Sept 18
In FOMC minutes: Fed sought to avoid balance of risks' statement on Sept 18
FED says GIVEN FINANCIAL SHOCK, OUTLOOK FOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITY HIGHLY UNCERTAIN,RISKS SKEWED TO DOWNSIDE
FOMC Minutes: Half-point cut appropriate to help offset effects of tighter financial conditions
'A little more confident' of a sustained inflation drop-- FOMC -
Turud reageerivad uudistele esmalt positiivselt. Ilmselt leitakse tuge sellest, et Fed on valmis ka edaspidi reageerima/kärpima (ametlikus teaadaandes oli ju sõna forestall) ning inflatsioon on väidetavalt kontrolli all.
