Ida-Euroopa - Avoid
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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IMF on värskelt maha saanud oma maailmavaatega, eraldi on ühe riskantseima piirkonnana märgitud Ida-Euroopat. Ft: The economies of eastern Europe are vulnerable to a reversal of the surge of private capital that has poured into emerging markets in recent years, the International Monetary Fund says in its latest World Economic Outlook analysis, published today.
The IMF says "large capital inflows are of particular concern to countries with substantial current account deficits, such as many in emerging Europe", as well as countries with inflexible exchange rate regimes.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/02/index.htm -
Täitsa nõus. Konvergentsistoori on läbi, ühes teises foorumis arutletud "asset price inflation" story on läbi. Võimul on populistid, kes ei jaga ööd ega mütsi jne... Sort-of sarnane olukord nagu kodumaal...aa...õigus, meie olime ka ju KIE...
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Ei Karumõmm, nagu Ansip ütleb on meie maal hea ja muret tundma me ei pea. Paistab viisnurk kollane otse minu aknasse...
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Tahaks tõsta käe poliitiliselt ebakorrektselt ühe KIE väikeriigi valitsusjuhi tervituseks... NOT!!!!!!!!
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Samas võib mõneti Ansipit ka mõista. Kui juba sellises mingis mõttes treeneri positsioonis oled, tuleb oma mehed kuidagi edasi mängimas hoida, kuigi mänguõnn on selgelt pööramas. Päris hull oleks, kui treener koguks satsi kokku ja teeks neile selgeks, millised arutud lojused need õigupoolest on olnud ja et tema meelest pole mingit võimalust mängu võita.
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ja nii mõnelgi juhul pöördub hea lobitöö puhul ka mänguõnn (ehk siis varjatud ressursid pannakse tööle)
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Kes korvpalli pisut jälgib, sellele ilmselt tundub samuti, et Andres Sõber oleks suurepärane järglane Ansipile peaministri koha peal, kui asjad kehvemini minema hakkavad :)
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noh, OK, tõstan regiooni tervikuna "accumulate" peale.
Samas: Time in the market substantially reduces the risk of loss resulting from holding both stocks and bonds. By focusing on a downside VaR risk proxy in 25 emerging and 24 developed markets we show that the downside risk of both stocks and bonds is greatly reduced as the investment horizon is increased beyond 10 years, but the risk reduction is more pronounced in stocks. We also show that emerging markets have substantially greater downside risk than developed markets. The results suggest that investors should be very aware of their investment horizon when making asset allocation decisions, particularly into stocks in emerging markets.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1092171 -
Selline infokild: Property consultants formed against Immofinanz / Immoeast and Financial Market Authority.
Seven advisor to the newly founded association "Immoverlust" strengthened against the responsible persons in the Causa Immofinanz and Immoeast proceed. It should also not be excluded, the "failure to supervision" of the Financial Market Authority (FMA) to challenge.
Rohkemat esialgu midagi ei tea.
Allikas: http://www.gomopa.info/ - Financial Intelligence Service (Austria) -
Immoeastist kadus ju suurusjärk 500M EURi cashi minema nelja tuule poole. Keegi ei tea, mis juhtus või kuhu läks. Väideti alguses, et osteti mingit võlakirja. Aga kui maturity käes oli, siis raha tagasi ei tulnud. Siis hakkas keegi uurima, et mis võlakiri see oli. Sealt tuli välja vist pikapeale välja, et selle rahaga oli mingite skeemide läbi lihtsalt emaettevõtte Immofinanzi aktsiaid ostetud, mille väärtus muidugi ära kukkunud oli. Aga keegi midagi täpsemalt ei tea. Igatahes prokuratuur alustas krim. asja juba millalgi okt-nov vist. Ilmselge fraud ja üllatav, et Austrias selline asi läbi läks. Aga noh, SEC lasi ka Madoffil rahulikult tegutseda üsna pikalt :)
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Aktsiate tagasiost on ju positiivne tegu juhtkonna poolt.Lihtsalt õnnetu juhus, et kriis tuli :O)
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Eastern Europe Reels as Exports Fall . Halvad uudised väljas ja millalgi 2009 aastal võiks nüüd nüüd vähemalt Aasia kriisiaegsete aktsiaturgude käitumise eeskujul turud oma põhjad teha.
The Asian Crisis and Investor Behavior in Thailand’s Equity Market
results indicate that foreign investors tend to increase their net buying (buying
less selling) after an increase in stock price of a few days, whereas individual
investors in Thailand tend to increase their net buying after a drop in the stock
price of a few days. The trading patterns of foreign and individual investors are
unchanged before, during and after the Asian crisis, regardless of the large
change in the condition of Thailand’s market. We also observe positive stock
returns following foreigners’ net buying, and negative stock returns after
individuals’ net buying during all periods. Wealth transfer by short-term
speculation from Thailand’s domestic investors to foreign investors is found to be
300–1600 million Baht for the 18 months before the crisis period, 500–1800
million Baht during the 15 months of the crisis, and 700–3000 million Baht in
the 15 months following the crisis, depending on the assumptions imposed on
investment horizons. Foreign investors’ superiority in market timing is observed
in all three periods, even when trade performance is evaluated on the basis of US
dollar-based returns.
Kuidas tekitada turul sellist momentumit, mis välisinvestoreid kaasama hakkaks? Vähemasti Eesti turg on aasta algus mingit pidamist jälle näidanud, hoolimata nendest Suprema Investeerimisakadeemia kauplemispraktikumidest. -
Shares in Erste Group Bank , emerging Europe's third-biggest lender, rose 8.6 percent in early trading on Wednesday, after its chief executive gave a bullish interview on Austrian television.
CEO Andreas Treichl said the recent slump in the share price had "nothing to do with the real economic situation of our bank ... I do not think that the situation has become dangerous for Austrian banks in central and eastern Europe".
Ameeriklased (ja mingil määral UK, kelle pankadel pole CEE-s sellist kaalu) üritavad muuhulgas oma probleemidelt tähelepanu hajutamiseks maailma panna uskuma, et CEE on "WE subprime" probleem ja CEE-s toimetajad üritavad seda arvamust väärata. Minu arvates pole see arvamus (pikemaajaliselt) põhjendatud ja CEE elanike madalam palgatase tuleneb ajaloolisest taustast, mitte nende olemuslikust allajäämisest. -
muuseas täna üsna mitmel korral CEE teema Ft Alphavilles. Huvitav, et CS võttis oma 5-ndal joonisel alguspunktiks 2008 suve, Batlikumi näitel pigem alguspunkt Q1 07 või suvi 07.
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intervjuu WB Zoellick'iga: Zoellick urges EU to help east Europe. Tundub, et Austria (eile mingis ÄP kirjutises küll Austraalia) jt. järjest häälekam mure CEE pärast leiab mõningast ärakuulamist.
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Raiffeisen tulistab täna ... tuleb välja algselt 26. märtsil avaldada plaanitud tulemustega, et turuosalisi rahustada
algselt oli 2008 aasta eesmärk 1 miljard EUR kasumit, kui 4. kvartalis see alandati 950 miljoni EUR peale seoses keerulise olukorraga finantsturgudel
Raiffeisen International’s preliminary full-year results: another record consolidated profit at 982 million euros
The decision to publish the preliminary results was made due to the current uncertain market conditions. The information contained in this release is based on unaudited figures. The complete annual report, which will include full details regarding the business year 2008, will be presented on 26 March. -
Ambrose Daily Telegraphist võtab teema kohta väga negatiivses võtmes sõna: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4623525/Failure-to-save-East-Europe-will-lead-to-worldwide-meltdown.html
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telegraaf, see on nii vana lugu juba - läbi näritud, siin läbi arutatud, natuke nutetud ja teadmiseks võetud ;-)
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mis seal ikka mõmm, jätan siiski nimele ja tehnikale truuks. teinekord jääb siin künka otsas tehtud arutlustest väheks ja tasub kommentaariumisse pilk visata.
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Detsembris CEE valuutasid shortida soovitanud GS: On Wednesday, Goldman strategists said they would close the trade for a gain of 8%. Currency weakness "has accelerated in exponential fashion over the last few days," wrote Goldman's strategists, "in line with anecdotal evidence that the trade is now becoming very well-watched and oversubscribed."
wsj -
huvitav lugu jah, kohe pidi ju Ida-Euroopas taevas alla kukkuma ja nüüd äkki hoopis sedapidi
Also, even in recession, the region’s economies are this year forecast to perform better than those of western Europe. CEE’s advantage of low-cost, high-quality labour remains in place. -
see on tegelikult väga huvitav, kuidas Aasia kriisi (mida kohalikud "IMF-i kriisiks") tulemusena seal tootmine jälle odavamaks muutus ja kuidas praegu CEE-ga sama trikk läbi viiakse.
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WASHINGTON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Global development banks on Thursday launched a coordinated two-year plan to lend up to 25 billion euros ($31.7 billion) to shore up banks and businesses in crisis-hit eastern and central Europe.
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Romania could receive about €20bn ($25.3bn, £18.3bn) in an International Monetary Fund-led rescue package as the result of negotiations between Bucharest and the IMF due to resume on Wednesday.
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Kusjuures, tööjõu skill level on CEE's parem kui Aasias. Seega need riigid, kus valuutakurss on paindlik, meelitavad ilmselt tootmisbaasi nii eurotsoonist kui isegi Aasiast.
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Eastern Europe to Avoid Default, Rebound ‘Strongly,’ Mirow Says 2009-03-10 18:30:02.0 GMT
By Daryna Krasnolutska and Halia Pavliva
March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Eastern European economies will avoid debt defaults and “bounce back strongly” after the global financial crisis, said Thomas Mirow, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
“What we are now facing in some countries in eastern Europe is a severe recession but not a collapse,” Mirow said today in a speech at the London School of Economics released in advance to the media. “It would however be a grave mistake to paint the future in colors too bleak. The situation today is serious, but it is manageable.”
The economies of former communist countries have been shaken by the drying up of credit and investment after years of unprecedented growth as the region integrated with the wealthier West. Some, including Hungary, Latvia, and Ukraine were forced to take international bailouts to stabilize their finances.
Ukraine faces an economic contraction of as much as 10 percent in 2009 after nine years of growth. The Hungarian economy may slump 3.5 percent this year and record its worst performance in 16 years.
“There are strong underlying fundamentals in eastern Europe which remain in place and need to be protected,” said Mirow.
“We believe that eastern Europe will come out of the present crisis, perhaps bruised and battered, but not beaten.”
The London-based bank, set up to help former communist economies in transition, is urging the West to help the East.
‘All of Europe’
“Maintaining the flow of credit and not retrenching behind national borders is crucial for all of Europe,” said Mirow.
“Shutting the door to our neighbors now will also mean shutting the door to our own future.”
Ukraine is “the biggest concern” as it “is confronted with a multitude of problems,” said Mirow.
The nation’s economic meltdown is aggravated by political turbulence caused by struggles between Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko and President Viktor Yushchenko over economic policies, which are hampering decision-making.
The government’s plan to run a state budget deficit of 5 percent of gross domestic product this year has jeopardized cooperation with the International Monetary Fund.
The Washington-based lender approved a $16.4 billion loan to Ukraine in November and disbursed the first installment of $4.5 billion. The second tranche, expected in mid-February, has been delayed indefinitely.
To get a resumption of IMF lending Yushchneko and Timoshenko pledged last week to hold “a joint position.”
“We have received the joint declaration of the authorities regarding their commitment to the program and we have welcomed this,” Conny Lotze, spokeswoman at the IMF office in Washington D.C., said via e-mail, answering Bloomberg questions. “We are continuing discussions with the authorities on specific measures.”
Mirow said the EBRD is “encouraged by the recent declarations of unity and the imminent return to Kiev of an IMF delegation. The stability of Ukraine is of crucial importance for the future of all Europe.”
For Related News and Information:
More stories on the EBRD: NI EBRD
Stories about east European banks: TNI EEU BNKGlobal credit crunch: CCRU Emerging markets view: EMMV On the EBRD: 6044Z LN DES Bailout & Rescue Programs: RESQ
--With reporting by Eduard Gismatullin and Agnes Lovasz in London, Balazs Penz in Budapest. Editors: Chris Kirkham
To contact the reporter on this story:
Daryna Krasnolutska in Kiev at +38-044-490-1252 or dkrasnolutsk@bloomberg.net Halia Pavliva in New York at +1-212-617-72-21 or hpavliva@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Alan Crosby at +420-2-2442-2112 or
acrosby1@bloomberg.net
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Nojah. Veidi aega oli/on neid õõvastavaid jutte eurotsooni nõrgestamiseks võib olla isegi vaja, vaadates millise sõnnikuviskamisega UK ja USA ise samal ajal tegelesid. Sutsu veel ja see ECB "behind the curve" leiab tõlgendamist, kui lihtsalt hoopis teisele teele keeramine juba mõnda aega enne kurvi :-)
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SNB QE peaks mõndele CEE riikidele päris olulise mõjuga olema.
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Also sprach Zarathustra - nii räägib EC kes peaaegu kõik oma positsioonid Baltimaades kinni pani. Kas see avaldus tähendab tagasitulekut?
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Schlag, ma arvan, et see tähendab seda, et mingit stoorit on vaja ju müüa.
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EU Would Help More Eastern Nations, Merkel Says (Update1)
2009-03-19 11:42:20.308 GMT
(Adds banking talks in second paragraph.)
By Tony Czuczka
March 19 (Bloomberg) -- European Union countries that run into a financial crisis can count on international help, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, pledging “solidarity” with former communist states in eastern Europe.
Germany’s government has also agreed to talk to the International Monetary Fund and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development about possibly helping restructure eastern European banks, Merkel said.
“We will help member states that get into a financial emergency,” Merkel said today in a speech to the parliament in Berlin before attending an EU summit in Brussels. “We showed that in the cases of Hungary and Latvia. And if it hits other member states, we will do the same.” Merkel didn’t say whether the pledges involve additional money.
EU leaders are considering increasing resources for the EU’s
25 billion-euro ($32 billion) balance-of-payments aid program for ex-communist member nations, according to a draft statement prepared for the summit starting today.
Eastern Europe is “an important export market” for Germany, Merkel said. “If credit and financial markets completely seize up there, it’s not just damaging for those countries, but it shows that taking action is in our own interest. So we want to help.”
EU countries in financial straits “can count on our solidarity -- we’ve repeatedly made that clear,” Merkel said.
Ex-communist EU nations Hungary and Latvia won international bailouts to avert defaults and, together with Romania, have sought IMF aid. Eastern Europe’s economies will shrink 0.4 percent this year, the IMF predicted in January.
EU leaders this month rejected pleas for a special aid package for eastern Europe and vetoed Hungary’s call for loans of 180 billion euros for ex-communist economies. -
ETF launched for Poland.
For the first time, investors will be able to invest in an ETF that focuses exclusively on Poland. The ETF, launched Wednesday by New York-based Van Eck, is called The Market Vectors Poland ETF ( PLND), and will track the 26-company Market Vectors Poland Index and trade on the NYSE Arca Exchange. Some 41% of the underlying index is composed of companies with a market cap greater than $5B, with almost 50% in mid-caps. Jan van Eck, principal of Van Eck Global, said Poland is the "largest and fastest growing economy in Central and Eastern Europe" and recently surpassed Belgium and Sweden. -
ise just midagi sellist oodanud
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ei meeldi nüüd ainult see et suurim osa suunaga pangandusse
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Another giant IPO on Warsaw Stock Exchange. Althought it's been only a couple of days since Poland's biggest ever Initial Public Offering, featuring the insurer PZU, the government is planning a possibly even bigger sale by the end of June. The IPO of energy giant Tauron is said to total some PLN 6-9bn, depending on an estimate.
Uudis sobiks ka Eesti Energia teema alla. -
Spanish giant Santander has outbid Polish PKO BP and French BNP Paribas in the tender to acquire one of Poland's top five banking institutions BZ WBK.
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Here we go again. Seekord jäi 'riskantsetest välisturgudest loobumise ja koduturule keskendumise' faas õite lühikeseks.
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Santander maksis selle eest ca 2,8 x P/B kah (kallivõitu). Kuid vist üks väheseid võimalusi Poola turul normaalne turuosa kätte saada.
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Ungari otsustas eelarve probleeme lahendada maksustades suuremaid kohalikke ettevõtteid (telekomid, energiaettevõtted, jaemüüjad) järgmiseks kolmeks aastaks ekstra maksuga:
