Börsipäev 11. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Bloomberg reports the Bank of Japan refrained from raising interest rates after confidence at small companies deteriorated and as policy makers assess the effect of the U.S. housing slump on economic growth. Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his colleagues left the benchmark overnight lending rate unchanged at 0.5%, the central bank said in a statement today in Tokyo. The decision was by an 8-1 vote, with Atsushi Mizuno the sole advocate for an increase for a fourth consecutive meeting.
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Täna on oodata jaemüüjatelt võrreldavate poodide müüginäitajaid..
Reuters:
Retailers including Wal-Mart, Target, Gap, J.C. Penney and AnnTaylor report same-store sales. Back-to-school shopping boosted results in August, leading many retailers to unveil surprising sales figures despite higher gasoline prices and the housing meltdown. Analysts will want to know if many shoppers waited for school to start before shopping. Some are expecting results to be worse than last year, as warmer-than-normal weather prompted many to hold off from buying sweaters, jackets and scarves. -
Hong Kongi Hang Seng Index lõpetas päeva 2% plussis, olles esimest korda pealpool 29000 taset.
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PEP prelim $0.99 vs $0.96 Reuters consensus; revs $10.17 bln vs $9.90 bln Reuters consensus
PEP reits FY07 EPS guidance of at least $3.35 vs $3.38 Reuters consensus -
Mind on juba pikalt painanud Buffetti PetroChina(PTR) müügid ning tundub, et müükidel enne osaluse lõplikku likvideerimist otsa ei tulegi. Kõik algas sellest, mil Buffettile kuuluv Berkshire Hathaway ostis 2003. aasta aprillis PetroChinas suure üle 10%lise osaluse (vabalt kaubeldavatest aktsiatest) – hind makstud aktsia eest oli siis ca $22.
Kuigi Buffett hoiaks aktsiaid meeleldi pikema horisondiga, siis on 4 aastat siiski piisav aeg, et vähemasti minu silmis kvalifitseeruda ‘Buffetlikuks investeeringuks’. Oma esimestest müükidest 11%lisest osalusest vabalt kaubeldavatest aktsiatest PTR’is teatas Buffet 2007. aasta juulis – siis oli aktsia hind jõudnud juba ca $150 juurde. Sealt edasi on Berkshire Hathaway oma osalust PTR’is pidevalt vähendanud ning pärast eilset seitsmendat müügiteadet ca $190 juurest omati PTR’i vabalt kaubeldavatest aktsiatest veel kõigest 3.1% ehk ca üks neljandik algsest positsioonist. Minu arust ei saa siin rääkida enam osaluse vähendamisest, vaid tõsisest likvideerimisest.
Konsensuskasumiootusi vaadates kaupleb netorahaga läbi korrigeerides PTR hetkel 16.5x 2008. aasta kasumit. Siia kõrvale näiteks Exxon Mobilit (XOM) vaadates näeme, et XOM kaupleb 12.7x sama kordajat. Seega on täiesti võimalik, et Buffetti müügid tulevad PTRi kõrgemast hinnastatusest, mis oleks korralik ohumärk.
Mobius aga näiteks arvab, et aktsias on ülespoole liikumise ruumi küll ja Buffetti müügipõhjused võivad tulla ka eetilistest kaalutlustest. Siit saab juurde lugeda.
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Wal-Mart (WMT) tõstab kolmanda kvartali EPS prognosi $0.66-0.69 peale varasemalt $0.62-0.65 pealt. Samas raporteeritakse suhteliselt kehvad SSS näitajad: +0.8% vs +1.6% Briefing.com consensus. Ilmselt oodati hullemaid.
Kuid firma kommentaarid on sama tõsised kui varem. Tugevust näitasid farmaatsia ja toiduained, kuid üldiselt oli majapidamistarvete müük nõrk. Kliendid on mures jätkuvalt oma finantsolukorra pärast ning eriti kulude tõusu pärast.
Overall, apparel and home remain soft. Company research reinforces that customers remain concerned about their finances, especially the cost of living. Within this environment, Wal-Mart Stores continues to reinforce its price leadership message, and during September launched its national brand advertising campaign with the new tagline "Save money. Live better."
In addition, unseasonably warmer weather in much of the country, coupled with tighter consumer spending, negatively impacted key seasonal categories.
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Target Sept same-store sales up 1.2%, total up 6.2%
Target sees full-year earnings below $3.60-share -
Jätkame rohelistes toonides. USA turu avanemist indikeerib eelturg kogunisti +0.5% kõrgemal.
Saksamaa DAX +0.65%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.55%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.03%
Hispaania IBEX +1.45%
Venemaa RTS +1.23%
Poola WIG +1.20%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.64%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.97%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.46%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.40%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.12%
Tai Set +2.05%
India Sensex +0.84%
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RBC tõstab Google'i (GOOG) hinnasihti $560 pealt $690 peale.
Goldman Sachs tõstab Apple'i (AAPL) hinnasihti $165 pealt $190-ni. -
Moderation in This Market Will Cost You
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/11/2007 8:24 AM EDT
Nothing is good in moderation. You cannot know good in anything until you have torn the heart out of it by excess.
-- Oscar Wilde
Stocks in Shanghai are up 2.5% overnight, Tokyo is up 1.6% and international markets are up across the board this morning. That is impressive, but what is even more impressive is that those moves come on top some very healthy recent action.
In the U.S., the Nasdaq has not had any substantial pullbacks since hitting a low in mid-August. We had a few choppy days back in August and early September, but since then it has been straight up with nary a pause.
This morning the market is gapping up strongly as Wal-Mart (WMT) raised guidance, even though same-store sales came in light, and overseas optimism bolsters the mood. The news out there isn't that fantastic, but the mood is so positive that market players are willing to chase an already extended market.
The million-dollar question is how much further can this go? The answer is further than you think, and for many people, it is already much further than they thought. There is simply no way to judge how far a market like this can carry when the mood is so ebullient. At some point it will end badly, like all frenzies do, but that doesn't mean that the smart move is to run and hide at this point.
Generally, the biggest mistake you can make in a market with this sort of tremendous momentum is failing to appreciate how excessive things can get. It is the nature of investors to go to such extremes that we inevitably will pay a price for it, but that's the nature of markets. Markets will always go from one extreme to another, but many market participants will be very frustrated as they fight the illogical nature of strong emotions.
The folks who struggle the most with a market like this are those who appreciate the value of moderation. In almost everything in life, moderation is a good idea. It is probably a good idea for the stock market as well. A slow and steady uptrend would be much better than wild moves up and down, but just because we understand that doesn't mean we are going to get it.
We are going to open very strong this morning, and the wild speculation in Chinese stocks is going to continue. I have no idea whether it is going to last much longer, but I do know that fighting it because it feels illogical is not the way to make money.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
On strong earnings/guidance/same store sales: WGO +16.6%, PSUN +9.0%, HOTT +8.3%, WMT +4.0%... China names seeing continued pre-mkt momentum, with strength in Chinese markets overnight (Hang Seng +2.0%, Shanghai +2.5%): NOEC +21.2%, FEED +15.6% (approved for listing on the Nasdaq Global Market), SEED +15.5%, SDTH +13.1%, CLWT +11.6%, SNP +10.9% (co says they are not aware of any reasons for such increases in price and volume), CSUN +9.6%, QXM +9.3%, RCH +8.7%, CHINA +8.1% (announces agreement to expand their business partnership with a Korean toy and game, entertainment co), YZC +7.8%, CPSL +7.0%, SORL +6.9%, STV +5.2%, PTR +6.0% (also positive analyst comments), CHNR +5.7%, LDK +5.1%, CBAK +3.7%... Other news: BCON +21.1% (10% Owner Quercus Trust discloses recent purchase of 893K shares at $2.01-2.19), ADL +11.9% (expands drug distribution in China with additional agreement, valued at $2.3 mln annually), TEF +5.6% (sets new sales, dividends targets - Bloomberg), GIGM +4.2% (initiated with an Outperform and $27 tgt at Bear Stearns), ERIC +4.0% (Sony Ericsson JV reports 3Q results), JASO +3.7% (initiated with a Buy and $60 tgt at Collins Stewart).
Allapoole avanevad:
On weak earnings/guidance/same store sales: RT -9.6%, FAST -6.8%, JWN -6.2%, JCP -4.6%, ACTI -4.3%, INFY -3.9%, GPS -2.0%... Other news: NPSP -29.6% (reports top-line results from its Phase 3 study of its investigational drug Gattex; did not reach statistical significance), BHIP -5.7% (profit-taking following yesterday's 15%+ run), ALTI -3.4% (downgraded to Neutral Merriman). -
Jätkame vaatamist Venemaa poole, LHV Pro all on Venemaa turult uus soovitus, ühtlasi lisasime BCSi Venemaa kvartaalse ülevaate.
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mul selline tunne, et muusika pannakse seisma varsti... igaljuhul märkõnad on put ja short
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Rev Shark ütleb väga hästi Hiina aktsiate kohta praegu:
The opening gap is being sold aggressively. The frenzy in China stocks is increasingly reminiscent of the bubble action in internet stocks in 2000. Traders are anxiously trying to find the next one that is going to attract the buying hordes and blast higher. Fundamentals are irrelevant right now. -
Olen võlgu ka hommikuse raporti väliskaubanduse defitsiidi koha pealt, mis näitas numbrit -$57.6 miljardit vs eelmise kuu -$59 miljardit. Tundub, et odav dollar on 'töötamas'.
September Budget surplus $111.6 bln vs $100.7 bln consensus
U.S. 2007 Budget Deficit $162.8 bln vs -$162.5 consensus -
mis kuri koer seda GMKT-ed täna hammustas ,et nii kõrgele hüppas?
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maidre, eks kõik, mis Hiina ja nende naabritega seotud, on praegu kuum kaup - liiga kuum, nagu ka Sharki eespool toodud lause on. Usun, et osa ostujõust ongi nii-öelda regionaalne raha. Teine tähtis põhjus on Google'i, Baidu.com'i tugevus, aga eelkõige Bear Sternsi tänane 'outperform' soovitus ja $27-line hinnasiht Gigamediale (GIGM), mis on 15% plussis. Koos uute tippude tegemisega jõudis kohale ka momentumraha. Ausalt öeldes olen GMKT jooksu osas lühiperspektiivis skeptiline...
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Kas GIGM short võib millalgi jälle kõnealla tulla?
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jaan71, olime tegelikult Gigamediat enne tänast hüpet uurimas ning iseenesest ei ole fundamentaalselt ettevõte üleliia kallis ka tänase hinnastatuse juures (mistõttu puhtalt fundamentaalidele rõhudes shortida ei soovita), kuid sellised äkilised liikumised muudavad riskiga korrigeeritud oodatava tulususe edasise tõusu osas mõnevõrra nutuseks.
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InterDigital Signs RIM to Worldwide 3G Patent License
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BIDU viimase tunni kukkumise põhjus:
Baidu.com trades lower in past ten minutes, weakness attributed to negative tier 1 broker commentary -
mis turuga juhtus?
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something is going down
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Briefing ütleb, et tehniline. Indeksite järjestikune tõus 11% kokku.
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BIDU hakkab ära vajuma pakun, et tuleb tugev korrektsioon. Kunagi mõtlesin 100 pealt osta ja pidasin ülehinnatuks kuigi lootused on suured, nyyd on juba ulme. Lühidalt BIDU hakkab läbi saama ja võtsin putte.
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JPM oli BIDU suhtes neg ..see pani kõik tanki.
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Ka homme hakatakse muusika seiskudes toole otsima ja lastakse mullist õhku välja. Pullid ärkavad ja sest veel võimalik väikse rohulible näksata:)
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Ausalt öelda vaatan tehnoloogiasektoris teatud valuation'eid juba ammu suu ammuli. Ongi aeg muude sektoritega võrreldes 5% ära anda. AAPL, AMZN ja GOOG võivad ka 20% ära anda. Ei imestaks üldse.
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Turg paistab ikka veel väga tugev olevat. Indeksi 1,5% langus on ju nohu võrreldes viimaseaja tõusudega.
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shake the weak hands out and go on!
eriti tore graafik oli täna RIMM-il -
Ilusam oleks olnud, kui näiteks qqqq oleks sulgunud ülevalpool 53 piiri. Aga ei juhtu midagi, kui teeb seda homme. Hetkel on ilusti veel trendis.
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Morgan Stanleyl on olnud paha päev:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUkBuixre03o&refer=home
