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Börsipäev 12. oktoober

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Täna hommikul on oodata General Electricu (GE) tulemusi. Seda enne turu avanemist ning analüütikud ootavad firma kasumiks aktsia kohta $0.5. Käibeks prognoositakse $42.3 miljardit, mis oleks 3.5-protsendiline kasv võrreldes aastatagusega – samuti oleks tegemist madalaima aastase kasvuga 3Q03 alates. Orgaaniline kasv on jäänud firmal 7-10% piiridesse ning EBITDA marginaalid 21-24% piirimaile.

    Briefing ootab konservatiivset in-line prognoosi neljanda kvartali osas ning kinnitust Y07 EPS prognoosile, milleks on $2.18-2.23.

    Tänased tähtsamad majandussündmused (via reuters):

    Friday’s key economic events

    ET/GMT

    Reuters poll

    Prior

    Source

    Producer prices (Sept)

    0830/1230

    +0.4 pct

    -1.4 pct

    Labor Dept

    --ex food/energy

    0830/1230

    +0.2 pct

    +0.2 pct

    Labor Dept

    Retail sales (Sept)

    0830/1230

    +0.2 pct

    +0.3 pct

    Census Bureau

    --ex autos

    0830/1230

    +0.3 pct

    -0.4 pct

    Census Bureau

    Business inventories (Aug)

    1000/1400

    +0.2 pct

    +0.5 pct

    Commerce Department

    Reuters/UMich consumer sentiment (Oct-P)

    1000/1400

    84.0

    83.4

    Reuters/University of Michigan

    -- Index of current conditions

    1000/1400

    98.3

    97.9

    Reuters/University of Michigan

    -- Expectations

    1000/1400

    75.5

    74.1

    Reuters/University of Michigan

    ECRI weekly index

    1030/1430

    --

    140.9

    Economic Cycle Research Institute

  • Viimaste päevade kiire langus Tallinnas on viinud selleni, et aasta algusega võrreldes oleme miinuses (-1,5%). Nagu ka Tartu seminaril jutuks tuli, siis viimase 7 aasta jooksul ei ole Tallinnas ühtegi miinusaastat olnud. Nüüd siis päris reaalne võimalus, et punases lõpetame, sest isiklikult ma ei näe eriti palju põhjusi, miks lähikuudel peaks sentiment oluliselt positiivsemaks muutuma.

    Veebruari tippudest oleme suisa 19,2% võrra madalamal. Tallinna turg sel aastal investoritele päris keeruline olnud.
  • General Electric (GE), mille toodete valik varieerub lambipirnidest lennukimootoriteni, avaldab täna enne turgu oma majandustulemused. Pilgud on suunatud mitme tegevuse lõpetamisest tulenevatele kuludele. Kokku oodatakse kulusid $1.7 ja $1.9 miljardi vahel, millest $300-400 miljonit tuleneb väljumisest hüpoteeklaenude ärist, mis eelmiste kuude sündmuste taustal väärtus kaotasid. Kuni $1 miljardi ulatuses kulusid tekib Jaapani jaelaenuüksuse sulgemisest ning $500 miljonit lennukimootorite üksuse  restruktureerimisest.

    Vastukaaluks oodatakse kvartalitulemustesse $1.5 miljardi suurust panust platsmassidivisioni müügist Saudi Basic Industriele, kes ostis ettevõtte $11.6 miljardiga. General Electric on omale eesmärgiks seadnud väiksemat kasvu pakkuvate üksuste vähendamise, et osa saada kiiret tõusu näitavatest sektoritest nagu tervishoid ja veetöötluse tehnoloogia.

    Kvartali jooksul on toimunud ka muid huvitavaid arenguid, loobutud on $8.13 miljardi suurusest Abbot Laboratories'e ostust ning JV loomisest Briti lennuettevõtte Smiths Groupiga pagasi läbivalgustamiseks (screen) lennujaamades.

    Tulu oodatakse ettevõttelt $42.42 miljardit ja kasumiks aktsia kohta $0.50, paranemist peaksid näitama ka marginaalid. Peamist kasvu oodatakse lennukimootoreid ja turbiine tootvast üksusest, kus ennustatakse tellimuste kasvu 40%.

    Tuleviku suhtes on ka ettevõte ise optimistlik, juba 2010. aastaks oodatakse $50 miljardi ulatuses tulu teenimist arenguriikidest.

  • General Electricu (GE) tulemused vastavad ootustele

    GE General Electric reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS in-line; reaffirms FY07 EPS guidance (41.60 )

    Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.50 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.50; revenues rose 12.3% year/year to $42.53 bln vs the $42.44 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.67-0.69, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.68 consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for FY07, sees EPS of $2.19-2.22, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $2.21 consensus.
  • Väga huvitav video Bloombergi peal Icahn'iga - Ameerika rikkuselt 18 mees -, kes usub, et tänased turuvaluatsioonid on kõrged ja aktsiaturg võib isegi tipus olla. Mees annab endale aru, et tippu ei suuda keegi kunagi ette ennustada, aga üldine toon sel intervjuul on küll murettekitav.

    Soovitan seda 10-minutilist intervjuud kuulata ning teha saab seda siit. 

    Carl Icahn: " I think that Fed saved the day by cutting interest rates.../-/... but Fed can only do so much because you also got inflation you need to fight."

    Lisaks räägib Icahn seal intervjuus oma investeeringust BEAS'is, kust talt küsiti, et kas see oleks hea ülevõtu kandidaat ning Icahn oli kahe käega selle mõtte poolt. Täna teatab Oracle, et on BEAS'ile $17lise pakkumise teinud. Samuti räägitakse LHV Pro ideest Motorolast ja ütleb, et kui tal on selle ettevõtte osas õigus, näeme investeeringu vilju juba aasta või kahe pärast, võib-olla varemgi. Icahn: "I like Motorola quite a bit.... I guess-I guess if it went lower I'd buy more of it."

  • Deutsche downgrades C to Sell from Buy and decreases their tgt to $44 from $60. Firm cites valuation, corporate governance issues, as well as reservations regarding mgmt's ability to execute as reasons for the downgrade.
  • Wachvovia kommenteerib negatiivsetes toonides majadeehitajaid ja tellimuste tühistamiste kasvu. Asjad on nende arvates hullemad kui oodatud:

    Wachvovia notes that results from their recent Neighborhood Watch Survey depict an exceedingly aggressive promotional environment with relatively limited success, and escalating cancellation rates as well. As such, the firm is reducing their 2007 and 2008 EPS ests for the 13 homebuilders under coverage (BZH, CTX, DHI, HOV, KBH, LEN, MDC, MTH, OHB, PHM, RYL, SPF, TOL). They believe homebuilding's hyper-competitive industry structure is creating far worse field performance than they anticipated. They now expect 8 of the 13 co's they cover to post EPS losses in CY 2008, and most of the remainder to be only marginally-profitable.
  • Järjekordne Google'i hinnasihi tõstmine: Oppenheimer tõstab sihi $625 pealt $700 juurde. Ülemäära suurt mõju ei tohiks see enam avaldada.
  • Deutsche kommentaarid Citigroupi (C) juhtkonna kohta on päris teravad ning juhtkonna tähtsust rõhutab ka asjaolu, et hinnasihti nii agressiivselt kärbiti:

    Citi's corporate governance is bad for shareholders
    Citi's new management moves leaves the Office of the Chairman intact despite performance that has repeatedly fallen short of peers and certain of their operating targets. P/E contraction is likely, in our view, given increased market concern about governance short-falls. We're lowering our rating from Buy to Sell and our price target from $60 to $44.

    Investment banking moves appear more bureaucratic than not
    There is an extra layer between one co-head of banking and the top of the firm (Michael Klein). A risk-taking culture could be impeded by the degree of management changes (we have a downward bias to our estimates). The addition of alternative investments to markets and banking comes late (maybe five years after Goldman's moves). The market remains to be convinced that the new head of markets, banking, and alternatives will do better based on his prior firm's track record.
  • Täna teatas Gmarket (GMKT) oma kolmanda kvartali GMV mahud, mis näitasid 35-protsendilist kasvu võrreldes 2006. aasta sama perioodiga (775.6 billion Won (approx. US$848.2 million)).

    Üheks põhjuseks, miks GMV lahjaks jäi oli, varem välja toodud rahvuslik Chuseok holiday, mil inimesed reisivad välja linnadest ning seetõttu väheneb ka äripäevade arv kuus. Samas näitas peale pühi (september 13~19) "kauplemisaktiivsus" taas kasvu. Paljud analüütikud ei arvestanud veel aasta tagasi oma prognoosides pühadega, kuna nende mõju firmale oli ka väiksem tagasihoidlikuma käibebaasi tõttu. Esmakordselt näitas firma qoq negatiivset kasvu. Samas kärbiti Streetil prognoose juba enne GMV teatavakstegemist ning ootused sinna 775 b WONi kanti ka jäid.

    Üldiselt läheb firma äri hästi. Negatiivse poole pealt võib välja tuua elektroonikakaupade osakaalu suurenemise käibest, mis tõlgendub madalamas marginaalis. Pühade tõttu saab kindlasti kannatada ka reklaamikäive, kuid aasta lõpus peaks see taas tugevust näitama - reklaamikäive on see, mis minu nägemuse kohaselt peaks kompenseerima kõik marginaalide puudujäägid ning edaspidi just suuremat kasvu näitama. Neljandalt kvartalilt ootan huviga just reklaamikäibe numbreid.
  • Natukene ka majandusstatistikat, mille peale esimese hooga futuurid sammu üles tegid (core PPI numbrid madalamad kui oodatud ning jaemüüginumbrid OK). Kui mitte vaadata core PPI-d, siis pilt nii ilus sugugi ei paista ning seda on kommunikeerinud edasi ka mitmed firmad. Avanemine kõrgemalt soodustab ilmselt allamüügi võimalust. Statistika siis järgmine:

    Core PPI y/y +2.0% vs +2.2% consensus
    PPI y/y +4.4% vs +3.7% consensus
    Retail Sales +0.4% vs +0.2% consensus
    Retail Sales ex auto +0.4% vs +0.3% consensus
    Core PPI m/m +0.1% vs +0.2% consensus
    PPI m/m +1.1% vs +0.5% consensus
  • Asjalik tehniine analüüs tuli täna: http://www.investeerimiskeskus.ee/artiklid/10001819
  • Tänase päeva jooksul on kavas mitmeid erinevaid kõnesid Föderaalreservi liikmete Bernanke, Fisheri, Yelleni ja Kohni poolt, mis võivad tänasele päevale volatiilsust lisada. Fed fund futuurid indikeerivad hetkel ca 40%list tõenäosust, et järgmisel miitingul 25 baaspunkti võrra intresse kärbitakse, kuid kui eespool nimetatud mehed peaksid täna teravate sõnadega esinema, võib see tõenäosus väheneda ning aktsiad surve alla sattuda.
  • Pärast eilset päevasisest sentimendi muutumist negatiivseks, on ka muud turud punastes värvides.

    Saksamaa DAX -0.43%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.01%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.48%

    Hispaania IBEX +0.68%

    Venemaa RTS -0.53%

    Poola WIG -0.52%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.73%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.01%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.18%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.88%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.30%

    Tai Set -0.14%

    India Sensex -2.10%

    USA turg tõotab avaneda eilse sulgumishinnaga samalt tasemelt.

  • General Electricu (GE) kommentaarid üpriski positiivsed globaalse majanduskeskkonna osas, kuid survet on tunda just USA pinnalt. Peamine kasv tuleb orgaaniliselt.
  • Did Yesterday Signal a Change in mood?
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    10/12/2007 8:29 AM EDT


    Change begets change. Nothing propagates so fast.
    -- Charles Dickens

    Yesterday's sudden and dramatic reversal in the indices caught many folks by surprise. The market has been on a tear lately, and momentum investors have been racking up some big gains playing select big-cap technology stocks, China plays and bulk shippers.

    As I've commented several times lately, the biggest fear in this market has been the fear of being left behind and not making as much money as others are apparently making.

    There are going to be many folks today who will be quick to dismiss yesterday's reversal as just some short-term setback. They will tell us that nothing has changed and that the market will soon be right back on track and moving to new highs.

    They may be correct in that we may bounce back, but days like yesterday do affect psychology. Often, a high level of volatility marks a change in psychology, and once psychology shifts, it tends to feed on itself.

    A shift in market emotion will typically be very uneven. We won't totally shift direction all at once, but we should see stocks act a bit differently as market players contemplate the sort of aggressiveness that resulted in some quick losses yesterday.

    One interesting thing is that the intraday range in the Nasdaq yesterday was 77 points -- very close to the 74-point intraday range we had in the Nasdaq on Aug. 16, which marked the recent market bottom. Volume picked up quite a bit as well, just like it did back at the August bottom.

    I point this out simply because it shows how big point swings and increased volume often indicate a market turn. That doesn't mean that a downtrend is a certainty at this point and it doesn't mean we go straight down, but when we have action like we did yesterday, we have to watch very carefully for a change in mood and psychology to develop.

    We need to watch to see if the momentum mentality is now impaired and whether market players are going to start being more defensive to guard against getting caught in an ugly reversal like we saw in Baidu (BIDU) yesterday.

    The most important thing to keep in mind is that in the stock market, change tends to feed on change. We saw a great example of that in the last few weeks as the mood became more and more bullish. The more bullish and positive the action, the more it attracted buyers who were afraid of being left out.

    A lot of folks fail to understand that momentum cuts both ways. If we go up based on strong emotion, we have an equal chance of going down on strong emotion. Once the mood turns down and selling starts to kick in, it tends to lead to more negativity and more selling.

    The sharp reversal we had at the bottom in August was fairly unusual. Normally, market mood doesn't shift that completely all at once. Normally, there are some fits and starts after a dramatic day like yesterday before a new trend emerges.

    I'm not calling for a market top here, but I am calling for increased vigilance and more defensiveness just in case yesterday's action is the first sign of a shift in market mood. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see us bounce back some in the near term, but the nature of that bounce is going to give us some further insight into whether change is afoot.

    We have a slightly negative start on the way. Overseas markets were down in sympathy with our poor action yesterday. Oil and gold are flat.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up: On strong earnings/guidance: LLNW +7.7% (AKAM +6.8% in sympathy), GMKT +3.5%... M&A: BEAS +31.9% (Oracle proposes to buy BEAS for $17.00 per share in cash)... China momentum continues, but to a lesser extent this morning: PTR +9.9% (WSJ article discusses Warren Buffett's sale), ZNH +9.5% & CEA +6.6% (China Southern, airlines climb on profit growth speculation - Bloomberg), STV +6.0%, ACH +5.3%, SEED +4.7%, CTEL +4.8% (co says they are not aware of any reasons for recent share increases)... Other news: CNIC +10.6% (announces an upgrade to its private label program), PLCE +5.9% (Fortune reports that PLCE has put itself up for sale).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    On weak earnings/guidance: CWTR -24.7% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Wachovia and downgraded to Equal-Weight at Lehman), CAMP -11.7%, ATI -8.1% (cuts FY07 forecast -- gapping down in sympathy: USAP -4.9%, CRS -3.2%, RTI -3.1%), HRLY -0.45%... Other news: LUM -6.6% (Deloitte & Touche resigned as independent auditor), NILE -5.1% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), BIDU -2% (additional cautious broker comments this morning; Credit Suisse believes the potential disappointing 4Q revenue guidance will trigger selling pressure).
  • Raportite peale kiire jõnks allapoole ja siis üles tagasi:

    University of Michigan Sentiment-prelim 82.0 vs 84.0 consensus
    Business Inventories +0.1% vs +0.2% consensus
  • BEA Systems lükkas tagasi Oracle'i pakkumise, väites, et pakutav hind on liiga madal...
    Aktsia, mis kauples juba pealpool $18 , lisas peale uudist veel 3%. Hind praegu 18.64.

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