Börsipäev 30. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Eile avasime taas Pro all investeerimisidee Fundtech (FNDT). Tavaliselt me enne tulemusi positsioone ei soeta, kuid sel korral tegime erandi, kuna ootused tulemuste osas olid positiivsed ning nägemus pikaajaline. Seetõttu kommenteerin lühidalt ka tulemusi, kuigi konverentsikõne alles täna ning täpsemaid kommentaare saame sealt – usun, et CC saab olema positiivne.
Kolmandas kvartalis näitas firma taas tugevat orgaanilist kasvu, milleks oli 20% võrreldes eelmise aasta sama perioodiga – SEPA efekt on end aina rohkem tunda andmas. Firma juhtkond näeb 2008. aastal nõudlust jätkumas.
Nagu ikka, toob firma välja põhilised saavutused kvartali jooksul:
· During the third quarter Fundtech closed 77 new deals and added 6 new bank customers.
· During the third quarter Fundtech closed 11 new system sales including 1 Global PAYplus, CASHplus, 1 WebACCESS, 3 PAYplus USA, 4 IGT plus , and 1 Transact CashIn.
· The Global PAYplus deal and one of the IGT plus deals were with a major bank in the Pacific Rim that will implement both systems.
· To support the current and expected growth of Global PAYplus revenues Fundtech has recruited approximately 30 technical people over the last six months and expects to add additional 25 before the end of 2007.
Nagu näha, suleti kvartali jooksul 77 uut diili, mida on tegelikult rohkem kui kahel esimesel kvartalil (vastavalt suleti eelmistel kvartalitel 63 ja 58 uut tehingut). Samal ajal lisati klientide hulka vähem uusi pankasid.
Antud trendi jätkumist ootan ka edaspidi. Arvan, et tulevikus üritabki firma pigem püüda oma klientuuri hulka suuremaid pankasid ning viia läbi cross sellingut (mis on üldiselt ka odavam) ehk pakkuda olemasolevatele klientidele võimalikult palju erinevaid oma tooteid. See viibki suletud tehingute arvu kasvamisele ning suuremale süsteemide müügile. Samuti suurendab tuntud pankade klientuuri lisamine ettevõtte tuntust.
Teiseks on ettevõte suurendanud töötajate arvu, kuid mõjud kuludestruktuurile on jäänud suhteliselt väikeseks vaatamata käibestruktuuri sarnasusele võrreldes eelmise aastaga.
Firma kergitas 2007. aasta prognoosi nii käibe kui kasumi osas. Kui varem nähti käivet $100-101.5 miljoni vahel, siis nüüd prognoosib firma juba $104.2-105.2 miljonilist käivet. Non-Gaap kasumit aktsia kohta nähakse $0.66-0.71 vahemikus võrreldes varasema $0.63-0.7 prognoosiga.
Amortisatsioonikulud jäävad umbes sarnasesse vahemikku meie prognoosidega, samal ajal on aktsiapõhine kompensatsioon mõnevõrra suurem. Üldiselt kasvab firma käive tugevalt ning kulude poole on firma kenasti kontrolli all hoidnud. Kenasti hallatud kulude ja oodatust suurema käibekasvu tõttu korrigeerime ilmselt üles ka oma prognoose ning vaatame üle hinnasihi, kuid enne kuulame ära konverentsikõne ning põhjalikum kommentaar lähiajal.
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Mõned kuud tagasi kirjutasime Pro all ettevõttest nimega Vital Images, mis pakub kliinikutele ning uuringufirmadele visualiseerimise ja piltkujutiste analüüsi lahendusi. Keerulise lause taga on tegelikult tarkvara, mis muudab skännerite abil inimese organitest saadud andmed detailseks pildiks, mida on võimalik igas suunas pöörata.
Tookord jäi ostusoovitus andmata, kuna teise kvartali probleemide põhjus ja ulatus polnud lõpuni selge. Riski hindasime kõrgeks, kuid lühiajaliste raskuste ületamisel võiks ka aktsia tootlus oluliselt turgu lüüa. Alates kirjutise avaldamisest on aktsia kaubelnud nii 10% madalamal kui ka 15% kõrgemal tasemel, praegu ollakse tagasi 3 kuud vana hinna juures. Me ei ole ka ettevõtet enne tänaseid kvartalitlulemusi soovitamas, samas mõni riskialtim investor võib peale majandustulemusi leida siit huvitava idee.
Ettevõte teeb olulisi pingutusi, et teha koostööd mitme erineva riistvara pakkujaga. Praegu sõltutakse suurel määral Toshibast ning rahvusvahelistel turgudel müüb Vitali tooteid neli esindajat (2 Aasias ja 2 Euroopas). Plaanis on aga Euroopa müügiesindajate arvu tõsta kuueni ja Aasias kolmeni. Lisaks suurendab ettevõte ka otsest müügimeeskonda ning see koos partnerfirmade pingutustega vähendab sõltuvust Toshibast ja suurendab väljaspool USAd teenitavat tulu.
Konsensus ootab ettevõttelt kolmandast kvartalist tulu $18.3 miljonit ja kasumit aktsia kohta $0.05. Loodetavasti suudetakse kasumi osas analüütikute ootusi ületada ning näidata, et viie aasta jooksul müügitulusud keskmiselt 35% aastas kavatanud ettevõtet on veel vanale kursile võimalik tagasi pöörata.
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Tänased mõningad tähtsamad tulemused:
U.S. Steel (X) reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $2.50 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.13 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $2.63; revenues rose 6.0% year/year to $4.35 bln vs the $4.36 bln consensus. Co says "We expect a decline in overall results for Q4 mainly due to normal seasonal effects and several scheduled blast furnace outages. North American flat-rolled inventories and imports are at relatively low levels and over time the weaker US currency should favor many of our steel-consuming customers. In Europe, steel consumption remains healthy; however, high imports, particularly from China, and high service center inventories are resulting in some pressure on spot prices and order rates...For Flat-rolled, Q4 results are expected to decrease from Q3 due primarily to lower shipments and higher raw material, outage and modernization-related costs. Prices are expected to remain in line with Q3."
BJ Services (BJS) reports Q4 (Sep) earnings of $0.64 per share, $0.04 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.60; revenues rose 11.0% year/year to $1.28 bln vs the $1.22 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.58-0.60 vs. $0.63 consensus. Co issues downside guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $2.35-2.45 vs. $2.58 consensus
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WSJ kirjutab päris huvitavalt CFC kohta (kapitalimaksumuse seisukohast):
WSJ reports the co cheered investors last week by pledging a quick return to profitability, boosting the stock price that day 32%. But some analysts warn that the nation's largest home-mortgage lender by loan volume hasn't gone far enough in marking down the value of mortgage securities it holds and may have trouble delivering on that profit vow. Because investors have grown so jumpy about the surge in defaults on mortgages, lenders like Countrywide can no longer fund themselves with short-term borrowings in the capital mkts, such as by issuing commercial paper. So Countrywide is relying heavily on collecting more deposits at its savings-bank unit, Countrywide Bank. But Countrywide has yet to show that it can "earn above its cost of capital" under this new model at a time when the outlook for losses from defaults is unclear, Frederick Cannon, analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, says. To attract money, Countrywide is promoting some of the highest rates in the country on certificates of deposit. Mr. Cannon and another analyst, Paul Miller Jr. of Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, both questioned whether Countrywide has gone far enough in marking down assets and providing for future loan losses. About three-quarters of the $79.5 bln of loans held as long-term investments by Countrywide Bank are either option adjustable-rate mortgages, known as option ARMs, or home-equity loans.
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Procter & Gamble ja Colgate-Palmolive tulemused olid vähetähtsad, sest nende kajastamisel ei saanud nii palju punast värvi kasutada? :)
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Nii in-line tulemused, et ei midagi uut ja informatiivset : )
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VTAL 3Q tulemused väljas - kasum in-line 0.05 , aga tulu nõrgem 17.1mio. Tõmbavad alla ka 4Q väljavaadet. Selle info põhjal näeme vast punast värvi...
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Tundub, et probleemid ulatuvad Vitali (VTAL) puhul siiski kaugemale kui üks kvartal. Kasumit aktsia kohta teeniti vastavalt analüütikute ootustele ($0.05), tulu osas jäädi alla. Peamise põhjusena tuuakse välja tööstuse üldise nõrkuse ning klientidepoolse CT-skännerite ostudega viivitamise uute skännerite ootuses.
Ühtlasi tõmmati alla ka terve aasta prognoose, EPSi oodatakse 2007. aastakse $0.05 - $0.18. Arvestades, et esimese kolme kvartali jooksul on aktsia kohta teenitud $0.17, siis oodatakse viimasest kvartalist kas minimaalset kasumit või suurt kahjumit. Prognoosi väga suur vahemik näitab hetkeseisu tööstuses - mõningane (tõenäoliselt ajutine) jahenemine, sõltuvus riigipoolsetest kulutustest, tihenev konkurents jne.
Aktsia kaupleb eelturul 12% madalamal ning tõenäoliselt kukub veelgi. Kuigi aktsia näol on järgmiste kvartalite jooksul tegu surnud rahaga, siis radaril tasub ettevõtet endiselt hoida. Vital on kvartali jooksul välja tulnud kahe uue tootega, raha on tänase seisuga $10.45 aktsia kohta ning tööstuse nõrkus tundub olevat ajutine. Eks konverentsikõne annab mõnele küsimusele täpsema vastuse, kuid praegu aktsiat veel näppida ei tasuks.
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Saksamaa DAX -0.45%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.55%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.65%
Hispaania IBEX -0.03%
Venemaa MICEX -1.24%
Poola WIG -0.81%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.04%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.16%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.60%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +2.02%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.29%
Tai Set -0.91%
India Sensex -0.97%
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Enjoy the Run, But Don't Get Hurt
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/30/2007 7:13 AM EDT
It's all fun and games until someone gets hurt.
-- Mom
Market players are blithely unconcerned these days as they wait to hear whether the Fed is going to cut interest rates a quarter point or a half point. The attitude is that as long as we have the Fed ready and willing to cut rates, we might as well play the momentum game and keep racking up the gains.
Yesterday, we once again saw buyers step up to buy on some minor intraday weakness and deliver another positive day. There is little fear that things can go wrong right now with a rate cut on the horizon. Although there is no shortage of negatives, market players take comfort in the fact that no one really seems concerned about them right now.
The market can go for a very long time by ignoring negatives that are painfully obvious. Although everyone knows the exit, they don't worry about them because no one else is worrying about them. We might as well have fun while we can and worry about tomorrow only when we have to.
Invariably what happens is that market eventually takes a hit and then all those things that didn't matter before suddenly are blamed. The lousy real estate market, tight credit, poor third-quarter earnings and a slowing economy are irrelevant while we are having fun and making money, but as soon as we stumble a bit, they will leap to the forefront as the reasons we need to be more careful.
With the market running up strongly into the Fed interest rate decision and the last day of the month, conditions are very ripe for some profit-taking to kick in. I'm wondering whether the bulls are going to be bold enough to keep us running right into the decision on Wednesday afternoon or whether they might try to get a jump on an anticipated "sell the news" reaction and take some profits before then.
The S&P 500 and DJIA both have vulnerable-looking technical patterns -- they have been bouncing since Oct. 19 on declining volume. As we approach the highs we saw earlier this month, there should be some increased technical resistance as the folks who held through the dip are happy to escape without losses.
Market players need to be opportunists. They need to seize profits while they can and only worry about the negatives when they start to matter. Enjoy the fun and games while you can but keep in mind that at some point, someone is going to get hurt. Our job is to make sure that it isn't us and that we keep the damage limited.
We have some profit-taking in the early going. Overseas markets were mostly down overnight due to some disappointing earnings. Gold and oil are trading down.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
On strong earnings/guidance: EFJI +15.3%, SEPR +14.0%, TXRH +13.5%, SHOR +12.4%, AG +9.7%, CF +9.1%, ACTU +8.5%, SOHU +8.4%, TWLL +12.5%, AMED +10.5%, ATHR +7.0%, OSG +6.6%... M&A-related: BDY +20.0% (to merge with Nycomed, BDY shares to be converted to $20/share in cash), SKS +6.1% (Baugur Group discloses 8.5% stake in SC 13D/A; says it would like to explore the possibility of making an acquisition proposal)... Other news: ACEL +25.2% (says its Onconase shows promise as radiation sensitizer for lung cancer treatment), SCON +25.2% (enters into sales agreement with China Corporate Credit Assurance to purchase Superlink solutions for deployment in China -- see our recent profile for additional background on SCON), NM +7.0% (announces confirmed agreements to acquire three capesize vessels for $298 mln), PRXI +6.9% (announces 1 mln share repurchase authorization, says to move for salvage award for its Titanic recovery efforts), CYTR +6.7% (announces filing of S-1 for its RXi Pharmaceutical subsidiary).
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Allapoole avanevad:
On weak earnings/guidance: SWHC -26.8%, VLCM -21.5% (also downgraded to Average at Caris), ONNN -21.1%, AMMD -18.4% (also downgraded at multiple firms), LCAV -16.2%, SCUR -15.3%, LIZ -10.0%, CMC -9.9%, NSTK -9.2%, CPO -9.1%, NHY -8.4%, UA -%, DASTY -7.1%, X -5.9%... Other News: LDK -6.9% (announces independent audit committee investigation into alleged inventory discrepancies), NHII -6.8% (announces the pricing of its $60 mln common stock offering at $2.75/share), LIHR -6.3% (cut its full-year production estimate as much as 9.6% after a strike at its only mine last month). -
Kuld jätkuvalt kuum teema - BSC tõstab kulla hinnasihti.
Bear Stearns raises their 2008 average gold price forecast to $775 from $650 per ounce; reaffirms Overweight on Precious Metals
The firm expects spot gold will exceed $875 per ounce during the next six to nine months. -
Raport tuli küll juba paar tundi tagasi välja, kuid neile, kes pole peale sattunud veel, panen siia kirja, et tarbijausalduse näit oli oodatust nõrgem - 95.6 punkti. Eelmisel kuul oli 99.5 ning allatrend jätkumas. See on madalaim tase alates 2005. aasta oktoobrist.
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tarbijausalduse puhul on ka huvitav teada, et see koosneb 60% ulatuses ootustest ja 40% ulatuses hinnangust praegusele situatsioonile ning vaadelda dünaamikat
Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun
Conference Board 95.6 99.5 105.6 111.9 105.3
Expectations 80.1 85.0 89.2 94.4 88.8
Present Situation 118.8 121.2 130.1 138.3 129.9 -
ehk siis hinnang praegusele situatsioonile muutus oluliselt vähem võrreldes tulevikuootustega, mida peetakse olulisemaks näitajaks ... erinevalt näiteks muutustele eelmisel kuul
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chatis
