Börsipäev 14. november
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Eilse väga võimsa USA ralli järel vaatab Aasiast üle pika aja täna vastu väga ilus pilt:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.25%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +3.68%
Hiina Shanghai A indeks +2.43%
Taiwani Taiex indeks +2.47%
Lõuna-Korea Kospi indeks +2.05%
Tai Set +1.08%
Indoneesia Jakarta +1.95%
India Sensex +3.02%
Singapuri Straits Times +1.77%
Filipiinide PSEi indeks +2.28%
Vietnami Ho Chi Minh +2.07%
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Eraldi infona - sattusin üle hulga aja peale USA kuludele seoses Iraagi sõjaga. Kui sõja alustades prognoosisid ametnikud kogukulu ca $50 miljardit, siis tänane reaalsus on see, et kogukulud on kasvanud/kasvamas enam kui 20 korda suuremaks - ca $1 triljoni juurde. $12 miljardit kuus maksev Iraagi sõda ei ole ikka kaugeltki odav lõbu ning valimiste lähenedes võib sopa-loopimist sel teemal küll päris ohtralt oodata.
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Kuidas suhtuda - kas US and A põrge on jätkusuutlik või võetakse täna kasumit?
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White Nigga,
Täna on tegelikult päris palju olulist majandusstatistikat tulemas, mis kauplemist mõjutab, seega pisut vara veel kommenteerida, aga kui peaks ülevalt avanema, siis see võiks kasumivõtjad küll välja tuua.
Tund aega enne turu avanemist teatakse oktoobri jaemüüginumbrid (konsensus +0.2%), oktoobri tootjahinnaindeks (konsensus +0.3%), ettevõtete septembrikuiste varude muutus (konsensus +0.4%). -
Kas tänane Bernanke kõne kus muidu intressidest ilmselt ei räägita mõjutaks ka turge või mite?
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renessanss, üldiselt sellised kõned väga tugevad mõjutajad ei ole. Peale intressiotsust ka olukorda kommenteeriti natuke. 100% väita ei saa loomulikult, kuna mõnda aega tagasi tema intressipoliitikat puudutav kõne küll oli mõjutavaks teguriks, kuid sel korral usun, et siit midagi rokkima panevat ei tule.
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Retail Sales ex auto +0.2% vs +0.2% consensus
Core PPI y/y +2.5% vs +2.6% consensus
Core PPI m/m flat vs +0.2% consensus
PPI y/y +6.1% vs +6.4% consensus
Retail Sales +0.2% vs +0.1% consensus
PPI m/m +0.1% vs +0.3% consensus -
Aasia turgude kohta toodi info ära juba foorumi alguses, kuid sama rohelised on ka Euroopa turud.
Saksamaa DAX +0.32%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.73%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.12%
Hispaania IBEX +0.40%
Venemaa MICEX +0.40%
Poola WIG +0.14%
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'V'-Shaped Bounce?
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/14/2007 8:01 AM EST
In golf as in life, it is the follow-through that makes the difference.
-- John Peter Winkler
After the big reversal yesterday, the million-dollar question is whether we can follow through and keep it going. Over the past year, the market has had a great inclination toward "V"-shaped recoveries after a sharp pullback. That is not typically what technicians expect, but it has occurred with unusual regularity for a while.
The technical analysis handbook says that markets that sell off sharply will have a number of failed bounces and may roll over and go even lower before they eventually recover. Markets usually don't go straight back up after a severe pullback because trapped longs and aggressive shorts start to look for places to sell into a bounce. In addition, the short-term flippers will be quick to take profits and move back to cash if they caught the bounce.
However, what has been the nature of this market is to bounce and just keep going. When we don't pull back, shorts are squeezed and underinvested longs scramble for more exposure. That keeps the upside momentum going and sucks in more folks who thought the TA playbook might work and allow them an entry after a failed "dead cat" bounce.
Is the market going to revert to the norm and pull back after that big bounce yesterday, or is this another setup for a "V"-shaped recovery that is going to catch many folks poorly positioned?
The bears have traditional technical analysis on their side, but the bulls have a number of positives working for them as well. First, positive seasonality is kicking in as we approach the Thanksgiving holiday. This is the time of the year when the market typically does well and everyone knows it. That can be a self-fulfilling prophecy to some degree once some buying takes hold.
Another potential positive for the bulls is that the negatives out there are so well known and to some degree have been priced in. We saw evidence of this in the way the financial sector has rallied the last few days. Unfortunately, there is still little clarity about how bad the subprime and bad-debt mess really is. There are lots of pundits talking about how we are going to see a lot more writedowns, but the market isn't acting overly concerned with this uncertainty.
Even after the big bounce yesterday we do have to respect the fact that this market has cracked technically. Even if you think that another "V"-shaped bounce is likely, it isn't the bet to make at this point. Make sure you keep some powder dry and don't forget that your No. 1 job is to protect that precious capital. If the market does hold and keeps on moving up, then you can add further exposure, but some caution is warranted at this time until the bulls show us that they really are capable of pulling off another quick recovery.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
On strong earnings/guidance: CSIQ +26.8%, CDS +22.7%, SSRX +17.6%, RCH +15.6%, INOD +12.6%, IMOS +5.9%, DSX +5.8%, QSFT +4.1%, MT+2.7%, MELI +2.6%, MT +1.4%... Financials strong after encouraging BSC presentation: BSC +6.5%, MS +3.2%, LEH +3.1%, GS +2.7%, MER +2.3%, UBS +2.1%... Select solar stocks showing strength with strong CSIQ earnings, WFR conference call: ESLR +6.9%, TSL +4.4%, SPWR +4.1%, STP +5.3%, WFR +2.7%.... Other news: JRJC +10.5% (obtains approval to become substantial shareholder of Hong Kong Securities Brokerage Firm), NPSP +7.9% (announces senior mgmt appointments), NSTK +7.2% (initiates plan for corporate restructuring and concentration on phase 2 clinical programs), EJ + 7.1% (still checking for any news), ETFC +7.1% (cancels presentation at Merrill conference), BIDU +5.2%, ONXX +2.6% (Cramer gives positive comments on Mad Money), WEN +2.3% (received bid from Triarc), VMSI +1.9% (enters confidentiality agreement with Roche and co reiterates Roche $75 offer is inadequate), DD +1.3% (reaffirms guidance), AAPL +1.2%... Analyst upgrades: OVTI +3.2% (upgraded to Sector Outperform at CIBC), ADSK +2.5%(upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), BAC +2.1% (upgraded to Buy at Punk Ziegel)
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Allapoole avanevad:
On weak earnings/guidance: GORX -19.1%, DAKT -18.4%, KHD -10.6% LZB -8.2% (downgraded to Market Perform at Raymond James this morning), IOC -7.7%, EXM -7.6%, GIGM -4.7%, MPEL -3.9%, FRPT -1.8%... Other news: NSTR -10.3% (co to delay filing of PMA), LULU -6.9% (reports problem with its VitaSea claims), MCRL -6.0% (replaced by URS in S&P MidCap 400), BDE -4.4% (concludes review of its strategic alternatives, no definitive offers received), HSY -1.4% (downgraded to Underperform at Bear Stearns). -
Tsunami warning issued after 7.7 quake hits N Chile
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10 points to Joel Kukemelk - avaneski kõrgemal ja hakatigi kasumit võtma
