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Börsipäev 26. november - Mustast Reedest sinisesse esmaspäeva

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  • J.P. Morgan on alustanud Venemaa naftatööstuse katmist positiivse väljavaatega. Investoritel soovitatakse aktsiaid omada, kuna alahinnatus Lääne konkurentide suhtes ja võimalikud üllatused kasumi osas pakuvad head riski/tulu suhet. Venemaa naftatootjad kauplevad 10-kordsel käesoleva aasta kasumil, samal ajal Euroopa konkurentide PE on 12 ja vastav number USAs 13. Ülekaalus soovitatakse olla Rosneftis ja Gazprom Neftis, teistele suurematele tootjatele on antud neutraalne hinnang.
  • Täna kell 12:59:30 viskas keegi SEB -st 50000 Tallinki aktsiat turuhinnaga müüki, aktsia hind langes kuni 0,96EUR tasemele.
  • USA tõelise kaubanduspüha tänupühajärgsest reedest Black Friday'st siis nii palju, et eelmise aastaga võrreldes kasvasid müügid ca 8.3%. Seda on palju, eriti kui arvesse võtta negatiivset sentimenti enne müüki (ka jaemüüjate endi kommentaarid ootuste osas olid nutused). Siia kõrvale võib veel vaadata läbimüügi kasvu internetist, mis näitas eelmise aasta suhtes lausa 22%list kasvu. Oodatust tugevam müük ja tarbija nõudlus aitasid aktsiaid kergitada juba reedesel börsipäeval ning positiivsed meeleolud on ka tänasesse päeva edasi kandumas - futuurid olid vahepeal juba 0.7% plussis, praeguseks küll järel veel 0.4%.

    Kindlasti tasub silm peal hoida ka nafta hinnal. Turu huvides $100-list naftat näha igatahes pole ning see, kas psühooloogiline piir murtakse või mitte võib turu liikumist mõlemale poole lühiajaliselt päris tugevalt toetada. Hetkel nafta jaanuarileping $98.5 ja +0.4%.
  • Citigroup (C) kõnnib Countrywide Financialsi (CFC) rada ja on agressiivselt oma töötajaid koondamas - ja seda väga erinevates divisjonides, et kulutusi vähendada:

    Citigroup execs say firm is preparing for "massive" layoffs

    CNBC commentator says layoffs will be across the board, not just in one division
  • Saksamaa DAX -0.27%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.58%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.55%

    Hispaania IBEX +0.42%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.86%

    Poola WIG -1.33%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.66%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +3.98%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.45%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -3.72%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2.96%

    Tai Set +1.24%

    India Sensex +2.09%

    USA turud on tänast päeva alustamas väikeses plussis. Aasia reageeris oodatust paremini läinud (vähemasti esialgsete andmete põhjal paremini läinud) USA pühademüügile võimsa tõusuga ning kui energia (nafta) või finantssektor halbade üllatustega asja ära ei riku, võivad turud oma reedest tõusu ka täna jätkata.

  • Moving Fast Can Make You Money
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    11/26/2007 6:50 AM EST


    Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.
    -- Winston Churchill

    In the past three weeks the market has undergone a major change in character. All the negatives that didn't matter for months are now weighing heavily on the mood. The primary focus is now on how many more billions of bad debt are out there and the chances that the U.S. economy will fall into a recession.

    Technically the indices have broken down and are in danger of falling into major downtrends. We have already had Dow Theory declare that we are in a bear market and if we take out the lows we hit in August similar declarations are sure to follow.

    The big picture looks pretty negative overall but that doesn't mean that the market isn't going to have some good rallies. While we certainly have to make sure we appreciate the fact that things have changed as far as the market mood and the technical action, that doesn't mean the market isn't going to have some very good days in the near future.

    It is very important that you are clear about what time frames you are going to embrace. If you have a longer term perspective then you need to move very slowly in adding new buys. The likelihood that this market has seen the lows is not very great. If you have cash and want to add longer-term holdings, don't be in a hurry.

    For the shorter-term traders there are likely to be some very strong rallies within the context of an emerging bear market. Typically the biggest and most powerful rallies come as the market is breaking down. Those big bounces create false hope and eventually set the stage for further discouragement and more downside.

    You can do extremely well playing bounces in a lousy market but the key is to move fast and make sure you cut your losses if you find yourself caught on the wrong side of a move. Watch for short-term opportunities but don't forget the bigger trend while you do so.

    This morning the media is obsessed with holiday shopping over the weekend and appear quite giddy over the results. I question whether the level of shopping this weekend really is indicative of anything. The focus of most of the spending is bargain hunting for special deals and there is no reason to believe that there is a trend toward more spending if there were a few good days.

    Right now all the reports about spending this weekend appear to be quite positive and that is going the markets an early boost. Overseas indices were up across the board and the early mood is positive.

    However, there is still plenty of negative talk out there about recessions and bad debt and there is not going to suddenly disappear. Enjoy the bounces but don't lose sight of the bigger picture that is emerging.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    On strong earnings/guidance: SKIL +5.9%...M&A: GLYT +49.9% (PHG to acquire GLYT for $95.50 per share), AYI +4.3%(up in sympathy with GLYT)...Other news: HOKU +40.2% (signs $306 mln polysilicon supply contract), CFSG +11.9% (announces $31 mln contract with Shougang Jingtang Steel and Iron), GBT +11.1% (announces $3.2 mln contract with Jilin Jinao Mining Equipment), TGEN +7.5% (announces FDA removed hold on its Phase I/II clinical trial of tgAAC94 for inflammatory arthritis), BRLC +6.7% (announces co will provide outlook for Fiscal 2008 this Wednesday), QGEN +5.1% (still checking), PTR +3.9% (still checking), MICC +3.8% (still checking), GOLD +3.2% (spot gold prices are higher by 8.30 at 832.10 this morning), CHINA +2.7% (discloses co has presented proposal for investment in and restructuring of Linktone), ERIC +2.4% (announces co has been selected by Algerie Telecom as sole supplier and system integrator for its network upgrade), RTP +2.1% (invests $2.4 bln in 2 new iron ore mines and increases dividend 30%)...Select retailers seeing pre-mkt strength following reports of better than expected Black Friday: CC +7.4%, BBY +1.4%, GLW +1.6% (may be picked up as beneficiary of flat panel sales)...Analyst upgrades: SGP +2.5% (hearing reinstated to Buy at tier-1 firm), BA +1.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Wachovia), CELG +1.4% (upgraded to Buy at BofA), MA +1.0% (target raised to $260 at Calyon).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: NWL -10.8%, CRME -7.8%...Other news: TSO -5.2% (Tracinda expresses concern about TSO rights plan), ETFC -3.4% (WSJ article says sale of co may hinge on its mortgage portfolio)...Analyst downgrades: FNM -3.9% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), FRE -2.8% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS, also plans to raise $5 bln in preferred stock sale), SSL -1.8% (downgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Sterns), HBC -1.5% (hearing downgraded to Sell at tier-1 firm).
  • Vimpelcom bids $100/shr for Golden Telecom- source
  • Ligi kuu aega tagasi kirjutati Vimpelcomi (VIP) soovist võtta suuremahulist laenu. Toona spekureeriti mitmete erinevate võimaluste üle, kuid kõige usutavam tundus Golden Telecomi (GLDN) ostu kirjeldav versioon. Golden Telecom on $3.3 miljardilise turukapitalisatsiooni interneti ja lairibaühenduse pakkuja Venemaal ning liidrid ollakse Moskva äriklientide hulgas.

    Täna ka vastav uudis tuli, ühe GLDNi aktsia eest pakuti $100 (aktsia kaupleb hetkel $102 juures) ning allika sõnul ei olda hinda kõrgemale tõstmas. Arvestades Golden Telecomi võimalusi laienemiseks nii kodu- kui ka naaberriikides ning Venemaa madalat lairibaühenduse penetratsiooni, on tegemist mõistliku ja põhjendatud hinnaga. Näiteks soovitas Citigroup alles reedel aktsiat osta, andes hinnasihiks koguni $141.

    Loomulikult ei ole veel pakkumist vastu võetud, kuid Vimpelcomi suurimad aktsionärid Altimo ja Telenor omavad kahepeale Golden Telecomis ca 45%-list osalust, mis ülevõtu oluliselt kergemaks teeb. Kui pakkumine vastu võetakse, saab Golden Telecomist ja ettevõtte sobitumisest Vimpelcomi koosseisu lähemalt lugeda juba LHV Pro alt.

    Hetkel kaupleb VIP 2.6% viimasest sulgemishinnast kõrgemal.

  • kas Friedmani FMD downgrade'st mingit lühiülevaadet kellelgi on?
  • speedy, kas sellest jääb väheks?

    Friedman Billings downgrades First Marblehead (FMD) to Underperform from Market Perform and lowers their tgt to $26 from $43, as they concluded that expected losses in FMD's trusts are likely to completely deplete the TERI pledge funds in five out of nine trusts and expect rating agencies and capital markets will eventually begin requiring FMD to provide more collateral in future securitizations, impacting cash earnings.

  • Kuuldavasti on Saudi-araabia nafta tootmist suurendamas, mis on viimasel tunnil naftat allapoole vedanud.
  • 10-aastase võlakirja intress 3.98% kõige roosilisem just ei tundu ja indikeerib tugevate oodatavate majandusprobleemide olemasolu. Üha enam vaadatakse paluvalt otsa USA valitsusele ning ka Keskpangale. Siin foorumites on varemgi räägitud juba sellest, et nii kiiresti nii madalale kukkunud tulusused ei pruugi enam olla atraktiivsed ning raha võib sealt vähemasti osaliselt uuesti aktsiaturule naasta. Närvilisest kauplemisest nii üles- kui allapoole me lähiajal pääsemas ei ole.
  • Ilma dividenditeta oli SPY eelmise aasta viimase kauplemispäeva sulgumishind 29. detsembril 141.62 (koos dividendidega korrigeeritud number 139.79). Hetkel on SPY väärtuseks 141.00 ehk oleme jõudnud negatiivse aastatootluseni...
  • Abu Dhabi valitsus (täpne nimi Abu Dhabi Investment Authority) on Citis (C) osalust võtmas pärast seda, kui Citi on nõustunud müüma 4.9% ettevõttest, mille eest saadakse kokku olulist likviidsust pakkuv $7.5 miljardit. Tegu on konverteeritava investeeringuga, mille pealt makstakse aastas intressi 11% ning aktsiaid on Abu Dhabil võimalik osta hinnaga $31.83-$37.24 vahemikus 15.märts 2010 kuni 15. september 2011.

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