LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 6. dets - citi kommenteerib põhjala pankasid

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Citigroupi arvamus Danske ja Nordea osas on järgmine:

     The Nordic Valuation Gap — Ratings among the Nordic banks have divergedsharply, following a long period of trading within a tight range. In our previous report, we looked at SEB and Swedbank, which have de-rated substantially. In this report, we look at Danske Bank (which has also de-rated by c2 PE points from itsfive-year average) and Nordea, trading in line with its historical PE average. Weprefer Danske Bank shares to Nordea.

     Upgrading Danske to Buy — Danske has been the worst performing Nordic bankYTD, falling 20% in absolute terms. We have been cautious on the increasinglyvisible slowdown in the Danish and Irish economies and property markets,amplified by Danske’s high leverage. Now, at c8.5x 2008E PE and c1.4x 2007EBV, we believe the bad news is largely priced in. We may be at a turning point forthe Danish economy and housing market. We upgrade to Buy (1M) from Hold(2M), target price: DKr235 (from DKr230).

     Downgrading Nordea to Sell — Nordea stock has been steady over the last sixmonths, and now trades at a premium to the Nordic peers. The stock has beensupported by M&A speculation. We see this as risky: (1) the often-mooted Nordea/SEB combination holds little attraction for SEB management or shareholders atcurrent valuations; (2) the sale of the 20% state stake in Nordea is unlikely to come before 2H08 at the earliest; and (3) few other bidders look likely to emerge.The valuation premium is not warranted, in our view, and Nordea is as likely to bea buyer of assets as a seller. We downgrade to Sell (3M) from Hold (2M), targetprice: €10.75 (from €11.5).

  • Täna kell 12 Londoni aja järgi (kell 14 Eestis) peaks teatavaks tehtama Suurbritannia intressimäära otsus. Intressid on seal hetkel 5.75% ning ca pooled analüütikutest ootavad langetamist 5.5% peale. Seni kogunenud majandusandmed lubavad nii samaks jätmist kui ka langetamist - ehk sõltumata tulemusest on see paljudele turuosalistele ootamatu.

    Lisaks kuuleme natukene pärast Suurbritannia otsust eelduste kohaselt Eesti aja järgi kell 14.45 ka Euroopa Keskpanga intressimäära otsust. Siin on konsensus 4%liste määrade säilitamise poolt.
  • Norbert Walter Deutsche Bankist annab Bloombergile intervjuud ECB intressimäärade osas - päris huvitav. Stagflatsioon on sõna, mis tasapisi on ülemas kerkimas, kuid Walter arvab, et vähemalt enne 2008. aasta keskpaika me euro-alal intressimäärade langetamisi ei näe. Arvestades, et ECB peamiseks eesmärgiks on ikkagi inflatsiooni otsejuhtimine ehk inflatsiooni määra alla 2% hoidmine, tuleks praegu tõepoolest karmi joont hoida.

  • Toll Brothers(TOL) (tegeleb peamiselt kallimate majade ehitamisega) teatab 52-sendisest aktsiapõhisest kahjumist, mis sisaldab ka mahakirjutamisi. Konsensus oli küll - $0.77, kuid kui võrreldavad need konsensused nüüd tegelikult ikkagi on... 2008. aasta prognoose ei anta.
  • Inglise Keskpank langetas intressimäärasid 5.75% pealt 5.5% peale.
  • Bushi kõne sellest, kuidas laene võtnud inimesi aidata, peaks täna toimuma kell 13.40 Idaranniku aja järgi (Eestis kell 20.40).
  • Structured Investment Vehicle'ide jaoks loodav nn superfond ei pruugigi väga hästi välja tulla. Nimelt jääb loodava fondi suurus oluliselt alla loodetud $100 miljardile.

    WSJ reports the three banks assembling a "super fund" aimed at helping to ease the global credit crunch are scaling back its size due to a lack of interest from financial cos that are supposed to benefit from the plan, according to people familiar with the matter. Originally envisioned as a $100 bln fund that would buy assets from the struggling investment vehicles, the fund may now wind up being about half that size, these people said. People familiar with the banks' plans say they are proceeding with the fund despite the smaller size. The banks, which have informally been seeking participation from other financial institutions, expect to start a formal syndication process within the next several days.
  • Ning ECB jätab intressid muutmata ehk siis 4% tasemele...
  • Minu üks lemmik analüüsimajadest internetisektoris on alustanud Gmarketi (GMKT) katmist. Nimelt soovitab Stifel osta Pro soovitust ja on seadnud hinnasihiks $29. Soovitus baseerub kasvaval Korea internetikaubandusturul ning jätkuvalt turuosa võitmisel. Lisaks on boonuseks uued tooted ja laienemine teistesse Aasia riikidesse (Jaapan). GMKT take rate madalam eBay omast ning Stifel usub, et Gmarket on atraktiivne ülevõtukandidaat nii Amazonile, eBayle, kui Yahoole.

    * We are initiating coverage on Gmarket, Inc. with a Buy rating on the shares and a target price of $29 equal to 26x our 2009 Cash EPS estimate of $1.10 per share and 17x 2009 adjusted EBITDA of $81.6 million.

    * Gmarket is the leading ecommerce marketplace in South Korea with over 20% market share. The company offers a mostly fixed price marketplace with several compelling characteristics for sellers and buyers including coverage of credit card fees, a global sales platform tool, premium listing/ advertising programs, and delivery services for small merchants. Much of the innovation generated by Gmarket in South Korea has been adopted by eBay and reviewed for deployment in eBay's less competitive countries. Gmarket's take rate including payment processing is 200-300 basis points below eBay's global figure.

    * Gmarket's revenues are diversified with transaction fees comprising approximately 60% of revenue and advertising and listing fees 40%. Growth is expected to come from: 1) growth in the South Korean eCommerce market; 2) continued market share gains; 3) new products and services such as mobile; and, 4) expansion into other countries, mostly in Asia.

    * Gmarket is 29.5% owned by Interpark and 10% owned by Yahoo! While we have no knowledge of any M&A negotiations or discussions, we believe Gmarket could be a candidate for consolidation with Yahoo! or an acquisition candidate for Amazon, eBay, Yahoo! Japan. Importantly, Amazon does not yet have a presence in South Korea and Amazon made an acquisition to enter the Chinese market. We believe the corporate culture of Gmarket is most aligned with that of Amazon, a singular focus on the customer with an inherent belief that such focus maximizes long-term business value.

    * We estimate that Gmarket will generate $3.6 billion of gross merchandise value in 2007. We estimate the size of the South Korean ecommerce market to approximate $18 billion and we estimate the size of the retail market in South Korea at or around $160 billion. South Korea has 16% of the U.S. population and about 6% of the commerce. South Korea's ecommerce penetration of retail equates to 11% compared to 4%-5% in the U.S.

  • 2 minuti pärast algavat ECB intressimäära järgset konverentsikõnet on võimalik kuulata siit - võimalik saada ülevaade, mis seisukohal inflatsiooni ja edasise kasvu perspektiivide osas ollakse.
  • Targeti kommentaarid SSS kohta, mis täitsid prognoosid:

    "Our sales results largely met expectations through our two-day post-Thanksgiving event, but softness in the final week of November caused the month overall to fall short of our planned range. This late-month sales shortfall was concentrated in key seasonal categories including toys and holiday trim, but other home and apparel categories fell short of expectations as well. These sales trends would need to meaningfully improve in December in order to achieve fourth quarter EPS growth."
  • Kes mu ülaltoodud linki kasutas, kuuleb/kuulis kõike juba otse Trichet'lt ise. Kes võimaluse kasutamata jättis, võin öelda, et minu subjektiivne kommentaar on, et ECB on oma inflatsioonitemaatikat sõnavõttudes veelgi rohkem rõhutamas ning oma eesmärgi - inflatsiooni alla 2% hoidmise - osas tuntakse suurt muret ning lubatakse arenguid väga hoolikalt jälgida, et inflatsiooniga võidelda. Inflatsiooniprognoosid 2008. ja 2009. aastaks on tõusnud ning neid ei tohi eirata.

    Ei saaks just öelda, et ECB finantsturgude probleeme/turbulentsi väga kõrgeks hindaks...
  • mnjahh, kokkuvõttes jäi ECB puudu ainult kontroll-lask 0,25% intressitõusu näol, et olla ikka täiesti kindel jääaja saabumises eurotsoonis.
  • Loodame et see jääaeg ikka saabub!
  • HOUSING GROUPS AGREED TO FREEZE CURRENT INTEREST RATES FOR SOME TIME - WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL

    BUSH TO ADDRESS HOUSING AGREEMENT IN STATEMENT AT 1:40 P.M. - WHITE HOUSE
  •  

    Saksamaa DAX +0.12%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.55%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.52%

    Hispaania IBEX -0.09%

    Venemaa MICEX -0.53%

    Poola WIG -0.01%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.70%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.73%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.15%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.27%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.22%

    Tai Set +1.62%

    India Sensex +0.29%

  • Paneme ka suuremad liikujad siia.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/same store sales: ENPT +39.9%, ALOY +38.2%, PLCE +5.4% (also restated financial statements to reflect additional stock-based compensation expense), PTMK +5.0%, JOSB +4.9%, MEI +4.4%, BONT +3.7%, BIDZ +3.3%, FNSR +3.1%, CASY +2.6%, CHINA +2.6%, GEF +2.5%, CAG +2.1% (also initiated with Outperform at Bear Sterns), DDMX +2.0%, CACH +1.9%, CWST +1.9%... Other news: HOKU +34.2% (announces progress on financing polysilicon plant, tgt raised to $15 at Broadpoint), NFI +25.0% (discloses waiver agreement with Wachovia), PTIE +15.8% (Remoxy meets primary endpoint in pivotal Phase III study), DRRX +13.7% (announces primary endpoint achieved in Phase II Remoxy Trial), THRX +7.2% (announces positive top-line results in Phase 3 Telavancin hospital-acquired pneumonia program), CPSL +7.0% (continued momentum following yesterday's strength), CBAK +5.7% (continued momentum), RBS +4.7% (plans $2.53 bln write-down on its ABN subprime exposure), SEED +4.4% (continued momentum following yesterday's 20% surge after the co made positive comments at a conference), CFC +4.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney; Bush expected to unveil interest rate freeze on some mortgages), MTU +3.6% (gives notice in 6-k concerning issuance of "Non-dilutive" preferred securities), GME +3.5% (will replace DJ in the S&P 500), BEAV +3.5% (will replace GME in the S&P MidCap 400) MBI +2.8% (seeing moderate bounce after yesterday's 20% sell-off following Moody's comments), RMBS +2.8% (SEC notifies Rambus of termination of informal investigation), IMB +2.6% (CEO responds question from co's blog posting, says will suffer loss in Q4 and received shareholder suggestion for buyback), HCBK +2.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance/same store sales: ZUMZ -8.0%, GIII -7.8%, FDO -7.3%, TGT -6.0%, CMTL -5.1%, JCP -4.0%, TOL -1.5%... Gold stocks seeing weakness as gold prices move lower; Feb gold is -$8.90 to $794.90: GFI -3.1%, DROOY -2.5%, GOLD -2.1%, AU -1.5%, AUY -1.0%... Other news: BCRX -9.0% (to discontinue Phase IIb trial of IV forodesine HCI), SRP -3.1% (announces a 12 mln share common stock offering), ACGY -2.8% (still checking), RTP -2.1% and BHP -2.3% (Baosteel says no plan to bid for RTP - Reuters), VMSI -1.5% (receives notice of intention to seek election of directors from Roche), MT -1.4% (to acquire assets of OFZ), AGN -1.1% (Botox maker Allergan faces challenge from MRX who has applied for FDA approval of competitor drug - WSJ), GENZ -1.1% (seeks to damp merger talk - WSJ)... Analyst downgrades: CHA -5.2% (initiated with Sell at Merrill), DRIV -3.8% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Securities), CTSH -2.6% (initiated with Market Perform at Friedman Billings), GS -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), WFC -1.3% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill).
  • JOSB näitab taas tugevaid müüginumbreid
    novembri total +25%, same store +15%

    tahaks täna korralikku pigistust näha,
    tulmused järgmine nädal.
    ma arvan, et nii mõnigi short mõtleks positsiooni sulgemisele - ja neid on palju
  • BIDU nõrkus on minu arust jätkuvalt märkimisväärne ja tasub silm peal hoida.

Teemade nimekirja