LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 11. detsember - Fedi otsuse päev

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Alustaks tänast börsipäeva väga karuse kommentaariga finantssektorile RBC Capitali poolt. Nimelt usuvad nad, et tugevust tuleks kasutada finantsettevõtete müümiseks ning nende portfelli soetamiseks on veel selgelt liiga vara. Panga aktsiate P/ on nende andmetel 12.8x, samas kui 25-aasta keskmine on 10.3x. Selleks, et panku uuesti ostma hakata, peaks RBC arvates aktsiaid kauplema kõigest 6.5-8.0 kordsel ettevaataval kasumil või siis 40-50% S&P500 kasumikordajast.

    Krediidituru probleemide tõttu näevad nad fundamentaalnäitajate olulist halvenemist (kallinev krediit) ning seda isegi siis, kui Fed täna jätkab intresside langetamisega. RBC nägemus on tegelikult lausa nii negatiivne, et finantssektori osakaalu, mis moodustab S&P500st täna 18.3%, näevad nad langemas kuskile ca 12-13% juurde, enne kui soovitaksid finantssektoris suuremaid positsioone võtma hakata.

    Ja kõigele eelnevale lisaks kardavad nad, et Föderaalreserv on sunnitud inflatsiooniga võitlemiseks intressimäärade langetamise poliitika varsti ‘hoia’ peale lükkama, mis avaldaks veelkord negatiivset mõju pankadele.
  • Kell 21.15 Eesti aja järgi tehakse teatavaks Föderaalreservi intressimäära otsus ning turul tehtavad mahud enne otsust jäävad ilmselt üpriski tagasihoidlikuks nign pärast seda võib juba oodata suuri liikumisi.
  • Inflatsiooniga võitlemiseks on ka muid vahendeid, kui intresside Hoia strateegia.
    nt. praeguste võrdlustoodete asendamine teiste toodetega või lihtsalt mõnede asjadega mittearvestamine.
  • Saksamaa DAX -0.38%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.49%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.51%

    Hispaania IBEX +0.23%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.20%

    Poola WIG -0.86%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.76%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.55%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.26%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.37%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.66%

    Tai Set -0.03%

    India Sensex +1.81%

  • Today's Fed Action Faces Lots of Headwinds

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    12/11/2007 8:12 AM EST


    Most of life is choices, and the rest is pure dumb luck.
    -- Marian Erickson

    Today at 2:15 p.m. EST, the Federal Open Market Decision will announce whether it will cut interest rates once again. A cut is widely anticipated, but observers are pretty evenly split over whether it will be a quarter- or a half-point trim.

    Is the Fed action going to boost the market further or trigger a new round of selling? The market has been rallying sharply for three weeks now, and there is no question that part of the reason is anticipation that the Fed is going to take further steps to bolster liquidity and save us from the subprime contagion.

    The current rally was helped by a proposed mortgage bailout program that freezes "teaser rates" for a select group, but the market has began to dismiss that as a political ploy without any real meaning and has once again looked to the Fed to provide a better solution.

    Many economists question whether the Fed really has the capacity to halt the massive subprime writedowns that continue to flow. UBS (UBS ) and Washington Mutual (WM ) are the latest to take hits, foreshadowing billions more in similar writedowns by other financial institutions.

    The Fed move today faces plenty of headwinds. Not only is it highly anticipated, but many wonder whether it really is going to solve our problems and help stave off the recession that many in the financial world feel is increasingly likely.

    The good news is that we have some upside momentum in recent trading, and positive seasonality seems to be aiding the mood. Once again, the bears find themselves with plenty of great arguments for why this market should fall apart but find themselves being squeezed when no one listens.

    The big danger the bulls face right now is complacency. It is quite easy to assume we are just going to keep on rallying in the face of these massive negatives simply because the Fed is cutting rates and we are wrapping up the year. We have to stay aware that this strength is very fragile and that the Fed can easily serve as a trigger for a new round of selling if expectations are not met.

    I don't know how things will play out following the Fed decision (we will discuss some scenarios later), but I do know that trying to bet on how the market reacts is a major gamble with little edge.

    We have a positive start this morning -- good news from Texas Instruments (TXN ) is offsetting bad news from Washington Mutual. Overseas markets were mixed, with Asia up and Europe down. Oil is bouncing and gold is down slightly.


    ----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ARM +15.6%, SVA +11.6%, FCEL +9.8%, NPD +5.2%, SAI +4.8% (also upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), TXN +4.5%, ENZ +4.0%, PRGO +2.7% (also announces final FDA approval of Dexcel's OTC Omeprazole), MGAM +2.3%, DMND +1.6%, WEN +1.2% (co expects to report FY07 EPS near the high end of the range provided earlier), MTL +1.2% (reports 9 month results)... M&A news: GNSS +57.6% (STM to acquire GNSS for $8.65/share), TRID +5.9% and ZRAN +1.9% (in sympathy)... Other news: SMSI +14.1% (buys Mobility Solutions Group for $59.7 mln from PCTI), NFI +9.8% (notes in an 8-K that the co has entered into a Master Repurchase Agreements Waiver), CTIC +9.4% (announces prelim results for Pixantrone vs doxorubicin for aggressive NHL), GY +7.0% (awarded $62 mln for U.S. Air Force's F-22 raptor program), GTS +5.5% (Cramer highlights stock on MadMoney), TLCV +3.9% (Highland Capital discloses 18.67% stake in SC 13D/A), LSCC +3.2% (Soros Fund Mgmt discloses 5.19% stake in SC 13G), WCG +2.9% (received an executed amendment number 2 to the current Medical Services Agreement; co also notes that Fairholme Capital reports a 16.1% stake in a SC 13G), RFMD +2.8% (still checking), PAY +2.6% (still checking), AEM +2.4% (increases annual cash dividend by 50% and provides updates in reserves and production), ANSS +2.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), TRMS +2.3% (announces 2008 strategic plan; designed to maximize cash flows from FUZEON, while also advancing TRI-1144 to a value-creating milestone), TDY +2.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), CELG +1.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney, also announces Revlimid with rituximab demonstrates 70% response rate in relapsed/refractory mantle cel lymphoma), T +1.8% (announces a 400 mln share buyback; increases qtrly dividend to $0.40 from $0.355), GIGM +1.2% (announces investment in XLGames)... Analyst upgrades: EBAY +2.4% (added to Recommended List at Citigroup), BKC +2.2% (hearing upgraded to Buy at tier-1 firm), MA +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform at Keefe, Bruyette), RRI +1.0% (upgraded to Neutral at BofA).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: NCS -14.0%, HRB -7.3% (also files to delay 10-Q, expects to file by Friday), PLL -6.2% (gives preliminary results but also files to delay in NT 10-Q), GNW -3.9% (issues 2007 goals in slides and FY08 EPS guidance below consensus), GGP -3.1%, IDT -1.0%... Other news: PANC -18.7% (announces results of Bevirimat, data support further dose escalation in phase 2b study; also downgraded to Outperform at Cowen), MEDX -17.6% (announces data from ipilimumab pivotal trials for metastatic melanoma did not meet primary endpoint; also downgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Sterns), WM -7.9% (raises $2.5 bln in additional Capital, reduces dividend, resizes home loans business and cuts expenses to Fortify Capital Base; also JPM may consider buying WM according to Punk Ziegel- Bloomberg), RTP -3.1% (challenged BHP to make a formal bid), UBS -2.6% (multiple stories out this morning after yesterday's capital raise; stock also down despite being upgraded at Bear Stearns), NVS -1.8% (plans restructuring - WSJ), EDE -1.8% (announces extension of Asbury Plant outage after unit failed inspection), SI -1.6% (still checking), TMA -1.6% (files Form S-3 announcing the offer and sale of common stock)... Analyst downgrades: VIP -2.3% (downgraded to Underperform at Bear Sterns), DFS -1.6% (downgraded to Market Perform at Keefe, Bruyette), SBUX -1.4% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Lehman), STI -1.2% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Keefe, Bruyette).
  • Vimpelcom (VIP) on avanemas ligi 2% suuruses miinuses, põhjuseks soovituse alandamine.

    Bear Stearns downgraded VIP to Underperform from Peer Perform based on valuation. The firm believes that the co's growth prospects are now largely priced in and competition is likely to strengthen in Russia and several other key markets in 2008.

  • Täistekst ise siin:

    The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 4-1/4 percent.

    Incoming information suggests that economic growth is slowing, reflecting the intensification of the housing correction and some softening in business and consumer spending. Moreover, strains in financial markets have increased in recent weeks. Today’s action, combined with the policy actions taken earlier, should help promote moderate growth over time.

    Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year, but elevated energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put upward pressure on inflation. In this context, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

    Recent developments, including the deterioration in financial market conditions, have increased the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for economic growth and inflation. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.

    Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; William Poole; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred to lower the target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at this meeting.

    In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 4-3/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis.

  • Ja kokkuvõtvad laused siin:

    Boston Fed's Rosengren dissents, preferring 1/2 point cut
    Fed will act as needed to foster growth, stable prices
    Fed says strains in financial markets have increased recently
    FED says data show economy slowing, reflects housing slump, some softening in business,household spending
    Fed says rate cuts should foster 'moderate growth over time'
    Fed says says some inflation risks remain
    FED says recent events, including financial deterioration raise uncertainty for growth, inflation outlook
  • Ausalt öeldes see, et diskontomärra kõigest 25 bipslit alandati, on küll paras pettumus turule, kes oli põhimõtteliselt diskontomäära 50 bipslises alandamises juba konsensusele jõudnud.
  • Ja see turu pettumus kajastub väga hästi turu liikumises - võeti hoobilt väga järsk suund alla!
  • Kas keegi targem oskab seletada, miks jeen tõusis peale FEDi ja näiteks EUR ja GBP kukkusid? Kas mitte poleks loogiline, et liikumine käib ühele poole?
  • Ei ole küll eriline ekspert , aga kas selline tagasihoidlik langetamine ei viita mitte sellele , et üritatakse ehk ikkagi vaikselt varadest õhku välja lasta ja mitte toita "turgude päästja" imagot ?
  • NSR

    mõtle selle peale millised JPY, GBP ja EUR intressid näiteks USD intressiga võrreldes
  • medal

    turu liikumine praegu ei oma suurt tähtsust, FED otsuse järgselt on ikka rohkelt volatiilsust ja emotsioone, oluline on pigem järgmise paari päeva jooksul toimuv, tihti ka suur raha hoiab vahetult otsuse eel ja järel turult eemale
  • Vanarahva tarkus: "Igal oinal on oma mihklipäev" (siis löödi ju talus oinas maha ja tehti praadi)

    Modereerime natuke ja saame: Igal pullil on ka vahelduseks oma ......(mihkli)päev

    Aga Henno väide, et suur raha tihti uudise seedimiseks aega võtab ja Föderaalreservi sõnumi pikaajalise mõju 10 korda läbi hekseldab, on ka õige.
  • GE näeb 2008. aasta kasumit 'vähemalt' $2.42 (konsensus on $2.49). Downside guidance või lihtsalt konservatiivsed?
  • SPY on teinud 3 madalamat tippu, millest saab tõmmata ilusti trendijoone. Vara veel öelda, kuid selle mustri murdmiseks peame saaba 1530 levelile tagasi. Raske juhus...

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