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Börsipäev 18. detsember

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  • Täna enne turgu avaldab oma neljanda kvartali tulemused Goldman Sachs (GS). Ettevõtte on sisuliselt jäänud puutumata turul valitsevast hüpoteeklaenudega seotud varade mahakirjutamise lainest, kuna languse vastu oldi hedgitud. Goldman Sachs oli ainuke suurem investeerimispank, kes langust oodata oskas ning sellele ka suurelt panustas. Samas on taoline positiivsus ohtlik, sest väiksemgi ebameeldiv üllatus võib investoritele tõsise pettumuse valmistada. Varade allahindamine tekitaks kahtlusi ülejäänud portfelli tugevuses ning aktsia saaks tugevalt pihta.

    Seetõttu oodatakse tugevat neljandat kvartalit, kus aktsiapõhist kasumit teenitakse $6.61. Terve aasta kohta tähendaks see EPSi $24.36 ehk 17% tõusu võrreldes eelmise aastaga.

    Konverentsikõnes tasub tähelepanu pöörata Level 3 varade mahule, kuna antud varasid ei hinnata mitte turu, vaid subjektiivsete hinnangute järgi. Kui taoliste varade maht on tõusnud, siis on küsitav nende objektiivne hindamine.

    Lisaks avaldavad täna oma kvartalitulemused veel Best Buy (BBY) ja Hovanian Enterprises (HOV), Palm (PALM) ja Take-Two (TTWO).

  • Renaissance Capital on väljas CIS-riikide 2008. aasta strateegiaga, keskendudes põhiliselt Venemaale. Tabelina tuuakse esile järgmise aasta oodatavad trendid ning ettevõtted, kes sellest enam võidavad:

    RenCap Russian trends

    Samuti on ära toodud arenevate riikide suhtarvude võrdlus Venemaaga:

    RenCap multiples

    Nagu näha, on turg fundamentaalselt tugev ning hoolimata suurest toorainesektori osakaalust ka alahinnatud teiste arenevate riikide suhtes. Alahinnatuse põhjusi võiks otsida valimisaastast, kuna välismeedia on Venemaa valimisi negatiivselt kajastanud (põhjusega) ning see on eemale peletanud investorid. Turul tähendab see soodsat ostukohta, sest kui uusi üllatusi ei tule, on Medvedev investoritele parim valik ning märtsis saabuv lõplik selgus peaks kinnitama majanduses võetud suunda.

  • nõrkus jaesektoris?

    BBY prelim $0.53 vs $0.41 First Call consensus; revs $9.93 bln vs $9.44 bln First Call consensus
    BBY sees FY08 $3.10-3.20 vs $3.12 First Call consensus
  • Best Buy elektroonikapoena on varemgi tõestanud, et uued tehnoloogilised vidinad rahvale peale lähevad. Ega siis muidu aktsia ei kaupleks oma 52-nädala tipust 2.5 dollari kaugusel eilse sulgumishinna järgi. Kui veel mäletate, siis just BBY poed olid need, mille taha kauplemispühal Mustal Reedel kõige pikemad järjekorrad moodustusid,
  • Selle vea, et siia Goldman Sachsi tulemusi pole veel üles pandud, parandame ka kohe ära. Ettevõte lõi ootusi aktsiapõhise kasumi osas 40 sendiga., teatades EPSist $7.01. $10.74 miljardilised müügitulud, mis aastataguste tasemetega kukkusid 13%, lõid samuti tugevalt konsensusootust $10.16 miljardit. Raamatupidamislik väärtus on väidetavalt $90.43...
  • Defer to Technicals
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    12/18/2007 8:40 AM EST


    However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.
    -- Winston Churchill

    In this very difficult market environment, it is quite easy to let "hope" become your primary investing strategy. As the market has broken down, the easiest course of action is to simply hold on to stocks that have pulled back and hope that the market will eventually see the errors of its ways and push them back to the price they rightfully deserve. We know that the market is not properly valuing our stocks, and if we can just hold on, things will eventually return to normal.

    The biggest problem with this investing approach is that it assumes that the market is a rational beast. The market can go for extremely long periods without recognizing the values that seem so painfully obvious to us.

    Many investors -- including me -- have learned the lesson over and over again that "cheap" stocks often become even cheaper. Great bargains become better bargains and end up staying that way for a very long time.

    The problem is that when the market is acting poorly, many investors simply don't care about "values." They see losses mounting and they want out regardless of valuation or future prospects. Investors react to price action far more so than they react to analysis.

    The way to deal with this is to defer to technical action and use "valuation" as a secondary consideration. When a stock breaks down, don't talk yourself into holding simply because it's a value. Cut some of your position and look at adding it back only after the chart has found some support and buying interest returns.

    We are in a very tough market right now, and many stocks, especially the more illiquid small-caps, are pulling back sharply. Some are great values, but you need a sound strategy for buying or holding them. You can't just rely on the hope that the market will realize that they are cheap and drive them back up. Stocks recover because the market is in an uptrend, not because there is a sudden realization that they are cheap.

    It is far more important that the market be cooperative than it is that we buy "cheap" stocks. Keep that in mind as you craft your strategy in these difficult times.

    We have a good bounce to start the day after yesterday's very dismal action. We were looking awfully negative yesterday, but overseas markets have come back and earnings from Best Buy (BBY) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are helping matters this morning. We are due for a bounce, but the big question is how long will it last.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ZANE +14.7%, BBY +2.2%, ADBE +2.1% (also announces additional share repurchase authorization of 30 million shares), TFSL +1.8%, GS +1.6%, DLLR +1.0%... M&A news: EICU +29.8% (agrees to be acquired by PHG for $12.00/share), WWIN +20.9% (announces agreement to go private for $38.00/share)... Other news: IRBT +16.3% (wins $286 mln U.S. Army contract), TMA + 9.3% (reinstates its common stock dividend), MICC +6.9% (still checking), GMO +6.3% (announces letter of intent for formation of joint venture with POSCO for Mount Hope Project), JASO +5.0% (inks new wafer supply agreement with ReneSola), RRC +5.0% (will replace TRB in the S&P 500 after the close on 12/20), DRYS +4.6% (Jefferies out with positive piece on DRYS; reiterate Buy, $160 tgt), FSLR +3.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), PHTN +3.4% (delays 10-K filing), RTP +3.4% (still checking), KWK +3.2% (announces 2008 capital budget which includes approx $650 mln for drilling), FRX +2.9% (FDA approves nebivolol for high blood pressure - DJ, also upgraded to Buy at Soleil), MT +2.8% (announces start of 44 mln share buyback program), STP +2.6% (tgt raised to $100 at Lehman), EME +2.6% (announces that its subsidiary received a three-yr contract from the US Air Force), BHP +2.5% (still checking), S +2.1% (names Dan Hesse as President and CEO). Analyst upgrades: MFLX +8.1% (initiated with Buy at BofA), SYMC +2.9% (upgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Sterns), GLF +2.6% (assumed and upgraded to Buy at BofA), NOV +2.4% (upgraded to Buy at Calyon), OTEX +2.3% (upgraded to Outperform at Raymond James).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TUES -20.4%, SNV -9.1%, WPCS -5.8%, MFRI -4.9%... Other news: TRMP -8.0% (Moody's reviewing debt rating for possible cut), MLNM -4.0% (held investor meeting yesterday), SCON -2.5% (files $80 mln mixed securities shelf offering in S3), AGO -1.3% (agrees to sell 11,764,705 of its common shares in an offering at $25.50)... Analyst downgrades: ZGEN -4.1% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA, also begins Phase II Trial of IL-21 n Melanoma), LNCR -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral at Oppenheimer), WIBC -1.3% (initiated with Sell at Merrill).
  • vaikselt hakkavad krediidiprobleemid tekkima järjest uutes kohtades: Ft's Lõuna-Koreast.

    Kirjutasin midagi Eestonina Air'i pardaajakirja kohalikust fondihaldusest jms.
  • Eile võis (vähemalt osaliselt) rääkida neist ka Austraalia kontekstis. Centro Properties, suuruselt viies USA ostukeskuste haldaja teatas, et neil on probleeme $1 miljardi suuruse võla refinantseerimisega. Ettevõtte aktsiaid kukkusid ca 70%....
  • GSi tulemused olid tugevad, tänaseks on suudetud analüütikute ootusi ületada kaheksal kvartalil järjest. Segmendid olid tugevad ja subprime hedgitud, kuid üllatus ei olnud piisav. Nagu eelpool mainitud, siis tõenäoliselt annab aktsiale suuna konverentsikõne kommentaarid Level 3 varade kohta, kuid negatiivset üllatust oodata ei oska.
  • Kui kellelgi on soovi GSi konverentsikõnet kuulata, siis kell 18.00 Eesti aja järgi peaks see orienteeruvalt algama ja teha saab seda siit. 

  • Kallutatud (lühema ajahorisondi agressiivselt positiivset) lugemist Realmoney alt Robert Marcini sulest mõnikümmend minutit tagasi:

    Robert Marcin
    Market Action
    12/18/2007 2:05 PM EST
    I think there has been significant tax and "face" loss(window dressing) selling in many technically challenged stocks. It has been a while since we entered the last month of year with the market on its behind. Investors are unfamiliar with this phenomenon. It should abate very soon. No one saves this type of selling for this late in the year.
    After selling the losers in down so much for so long, investors recently shifted to the momentum stocks, figuring no company should go unscathed. Since there is no place to hide, despair has come to Wall Street. Even Cramer is having difficulty finding the bull market somewhere.

    This despair is a sign of a short term bottom. I expect to see big increases in the bearish sentiment polls this week. And I expect hedgies to have reduced net long exposure as well.

    If I am correct, a year end rally should begin imminently, if for no other reason than the abatement of the relentless tax/face loss selling. An inter-meeting Fed rate cut would help stocks and bonds as well were one to materialize. Lower rates would be good, but more importantly, it would show that the Fed finally gets it. And that might reverse the awful investor psychology. A boy can dream can't he?

    I don't know when/if this rally will materialize. But I have seen a few of these situations in my 26 year investment career. And, when the face/tax loss selling abates, shocking rallies in individual stocks can occur. I am starting to nibble again.
  • Ehk oskab keegi kohe peast öelda, et millal on USA börsil sel aastal see viimane tehingupäev, mis läheb selle aasta arvesse? 24.detsember?

  • Postimees räägib millestki Otsustajast, mis tutvustab Eesti investeerimispanku ja riskikapitalifonde:
    http://www.postimees.ee/181207/esileht/olulised_teemad/tarbija24/kasu/302154.php

    Mis publikatsiooniga on tegemist, kas keegi oskab anda otselingi?
  • velvo, minu teada peaks USA börs kinni olema üksnes 25. detsembril. Seega viimane päev, et T+3ga tehing 31. detsembril tehtud oleks, peaks olema 26. detsembril....

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