Börsipäev 20. detsember
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Nike (NKE) teatas eile oma fiskaalaasta 2. kvartali tulemused ning investorid võtsid need hea meelega vastu. Oli ka põhjust, sest ootusi löödi nii müügitulu kui kasumi osas ning aktsia 3%-line pluss järelturul räägib juba enda eest.
Novembriga lõppenud kvartalis teeniti EPSi $0.71 (eelmine aasta oli see $0.64) vs konsensusootus $0.66, kusjuures löödi ka kõige suuremate optimistide ootusi $0.68. Müügitulu näidati $4.34 miljardit vs konsensusootus $4.21 miljardit. Tegu on päris muljetavaldava müügitulu kasvuga, arvestades, et eelmine aasta oli see $3.82 miljardit – 13.5%line kasv (kui valuutaefekt välja jätta, siis kasv ca 9.5%) näitab, et Nike oskab jätkuvalt oma tooteid müüa. Kasvu vedavateks turgudeks olid eelkõige Aasia, Lähis-Ida, Aafrika ja Euroopa kui ka Lõuna-Ameerika.
Positiivsust lisab seegi, et võrreldes aastataguse kvartaliga on tõstetud ka marginaale 43.4% pealt 44.3%-le. Analüütikud ootasid siinkohal numbrit 43.7%. Nike on ilmestamas taaskord, miks suured ja tugeva brändiga ettevõtted keerulistel aegadel hästi müüvad – isegi kasumimarginaale on suudetud tõsta ning järgnevatel kvartalitel olulist langust ette ka ei nähta, uskudes, et see saab olema väga sarnane eelmiste aastate vastavate numbritega.
Nagu ettevõttele tavaks ikka, ollakse spordi suursündmuste – nagu Pekingi Olümpiamängud või Euro 2008 jalgpalli meistrivõistlused – ajal reklaamile suurt rõhku panamas, mis tähendab ka kevadel suuremaid kulusid, kuid seni on selline taktika ennast pikas perspektiivis ära tasunud. Lisaks ollakse lähiajal lõpule viimase Briti spordivarustuse tootja Umbro ülevõtt.
$64 peal kauplevad aktsiad 17.9x 2008. aasta, 16.6x 2009. aasta ning 14.1x 2010. aasta konsensuskasumit. Oodatavad kasumikasvud vastavatel aastatel 21.8%, 8.1% ning 17.4% ehk neid kasumikordajaid, eeldusel, et ootused realiseeruvad, nüüd ülemäära suurteks ei saa pidada. Näiteks Citigroup on aktsia kohta väljas $78-lise hinnasihiga….
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Tervitaks kenasid LHV päkapikke ja kogu LHV meeskonda meeldiva kingituse eest:)!
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Bloombergis kirjutatakse täna Euroopa Keskpanga ees seisvast dilemmast - kas võidelda inflatsiooniga või leevendada ülemaailmset krediiditurgude probleeme, mis on aja pikku juba majandusse sisse imbumas ja sellele negatiivset mõju avaldamas. Mõlema eesmärgi saavutamine olevat väidetavalt väga keeruline. Artikkel ise siin.
Iseenesest päris huvitav artikkel, kus põrkuvad päris mitme majandusanalüütiku arvamused. Kui ECB lähtuks üksnes oma inflatsiooni otsejuhtimise põhimõttest, siis ausalt öeldes oleks neil intresside langetamisest täna veel väga vara rääkida. Seda on ka rõhutanud Euroopa Keskpanga president Trichet, et hinnastabiilsuse riskid on selgelt ülespoole. Näiteks samal ajal kui Joachim Fels Morgan Stanley'st ütleb, et kui ECB kuskile poole intresse liigutab, siis saab see olema igaljuhul allapoole, leiab Bank of America analüütik Gilles Moec, et intresside langetamine ei lahendaks tänast probleemi ning inflatsiooniga võitlemiseks tuleks hoida karmi joont. Moec näeb Euroopa Keskpanga baasintressimärra 2008. aasta lõpus 4.50% peal, ehk 0.50% kõrgemal, kui ta täna on.
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USA Q3 Final GDP muutuseta, kuid chain deflator ja PCE revideeriti üles .... inflatsioonihirmu juurde
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Bear Sterns tulemused ka raskesti võrreldavad, aga aktsia eelturul napis plussis ... muidugi on liiga vara veel
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Dec 20 (Reuters) - Following are some thoughts on economic and financial market trends in 2008 from various leading investment banks.
CREDIT SUISSE
"While global growth should remain healthy in 2008, the imbalance between developed and emerging economies is becoming increasingly stark. With 2008 GDP growth in both the US and Europe forecast to start with a big figure '1', a soft landing globally can still feel uncomfortable locally.
"We think the key will be how responsive central banks prove to be and how effectively they can free up the credit and money markets. Our economists' central case is that they will be responsive and effective.
"In part for this reason, our strategists remain positive on equities. There are no arguments that the outlook for earnings in 2008 is anything other than poor and that consensus is yet to adjust to it. However, valuations discount a decline in earnings over and above that seen in the last two recessions."
GOLDMAN SACHS
"The bursting of the U.S. housing bubble has triggered a general re-pricing of risks in the credit markets around the globe, which also affects countries and sectors that have no direct exposure to the U.S. housing market.
"The ongoing financial crisis is likely to further reduce investor confidence in economic activity. The degree to which the credit crisis will affect economic growth obviously depends on the circumstances in each country.
"We do not expect the situation in the credit market to improve all of a sudden, and that we do expect it to remain difficult."
"The weakness of the U.S. dollar also puts pressure on growth in Europe. Although we expect the dollar to strengthen over the next 12 months, past weakness will leave its traces in European foreign trade figures.
"A sharp deterioration in U.S. activity could potentially push the euro higher. (But) the euro remains notably overvalued; consequently, on a longer-term horizon, we continue to expect some euro weakness."
-- Goldman forecasts world GDP growth of 4.2 percent in 2008. It sees U.S. growth slowing to 1.8 percent, euro zone growth of 1.7 percent and growthi in Japan at 1.2 percent.
BARCLAYS CAPITAL
"Over the next three months we expect the U.S. economy finally to experience sharply lower growth, but only modest slowing elsewhere. Inflation will continue to run hot, but remain a secondary issue, at least in the major industrial countries and credit markets will begin a move back toward normality, particularly as liquidity conditions improve after year-end.
"We recommend that investors position cautiously, however, recognising the considerable macroeconomic and market uncertainties regarding these views and the likely continuation of financial market volatility. We recommend underweight equities, particularly in the U.S. and non-Japan Asia, and taking hedged risk in the parts of the credit markets that have been beaten down by illiquidity and forced selling, factors that will have less staying power than bad credit. We would eliminate exposure to a lower dollar and to falling risk-free and high grade bonds."
LEHMAN BROTHERS
"We expect global growth to slow in 2008.... It is unclear how the financial market turbulence and credit market dislocation of 2007 will play out in 2008. Our baseline view factors in a sizeable degree of tightening of financing conditions in terms of both spreads and availability of credit, pointing to crimping of investment and consumption across the major economies.
"And there is also a considerable risk that further financial turbulence and dislocation occurs from time to time, adding to the tightness of financial conditions. In a worst-case scenario, a full-fledged credit crunch could develop...."
"Despite the depressing forces at work, a couple of factors argue for the global economy to avoid a serious downturn or outright recession. First, central banks ... are on the case. Second, some perspective needs to be maintained on the resilience of the U.S. economy and on the favourable global backdrop against which the shocks are playing out. The U.S. economy in recent years has proved to be remarkably resilient."
MERRILL LYNCH
"We remain optimistic that the global economy remains resilient in the face of a U.S. slowdown, and forecast a moderation of global growth ex-U.S. to 5.6 percent next year from 6.0 percent, even as the U.S. slows from 2.2 percent to 1.4 percent. Nevertheless, we want to move `beyond decoupling'.
"The macro backdrop remains positive for equities versus bonds. However, rising economic volatility, declining correlations and higher short rates call for shifting some money from stocks to cash, purchasing protection, careful risk management, and diversification.
"In FX, as the plunging dollar eventually tries to find a bottom, currencies in Asia, the Middle East and Russia are very attractive. In commodities, oil prices could still spike further before governments take measures to curb them, though prices should eventually decline."
UBS
"We expect slower global economic and earnings growth in 2008. Recession risk in the U.S. is significant -- our estimates 40 percent or higher over the next 12 months. Since the summer we've sharply downgraded our growth forecasts for the euro zone. Export-related growth in many emerging markets is likely to slow as a consequence.
"Credit- and derivative-related losses in the financial system are set to top a half a trillion dollars in this cycle and further write-downs are likely in the fourth quarter....
"(However), even if genuine decoupling is unlikely, economic and earnings growth should remain more resilient in many of the emerging market and commodity-producing economies.
"In our view, the appropriate investment philosophy going into 2008 begins with capital preservation based on portfolio diversification, with a continued preference for non-dollar returns and income (yield)."
CITI
"If, as we suspect, the forces of economic resilience are seen to gain the upper hand during 2008, long-term government bond yields probably will rise next year, helping to steepen the yield curve.
"Scaled-back risk appetites probably will continue to affect U.S. credit spreads at least until monetary policy and greater clarity on the losses in the financial sector have capped the threats to financial stability.
"Although equities are not immune to credit turmoil, reasonable valuations should help cushion the leading equity markets.
"If the global expansion survives financial stress and the U.S. housing debacle, there are likely to be opportunities during 2008 to take on greater exposure to risky assets. But it is premature to suggest when that will occur."
BNP PARIBAS
"The roots of this financial crisis run deeper than in 1998 and it is less clear where the losses will arise. Moreover, the source of the problem is in U.S. housing, which is a chronic problem that will not go away quickly. Therefore the consequences of this financial crisis will be severe, widespread and persistent. Increasingly, capital pressures on banks will squeeze real activity.
"The biggest risk to the downside is that the financial crisis turns an already sharp slowdown into a full-blown recession and a vicious downward cycle develops between economic activity and financial stability.
"Our central scenario takes the view that the growth slowdown and the financial stress we are seeing are well rooted in long-standing imbalances in the economy and that the consequences of this will be slow to diminish." -
Päris tore postitus Kristjan. Soovitan kõigil kindlasti lugeda! Nägemused nii mitmelgi finantsasutusel vägagi erinevad.
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Confidence Ball May Start Rolling
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/20/2007 8:39 AM EST
Advances are made by those with at least a touch of irrational confidence in what they can do.
-- Joan L. Curcio
Despite a steady flow of negative news and a rather gloomy mood, the market has done a nice job of recovery from several intraday dips the last couple of days. We haven't been able to generate any good upside traction, but we aren't selling off either.
I said yesterday that the mood seemed particularly negative and that I believed that poor mood was supportive of at least a brief rally. Trying to invest based on opinions about the prevailing mood of the market is very difficult. There is a tendency for most investors to believe that their viewpoint is unique and therefore in the minority. In addition, the great mass of investors are neither strongly bullish or bearish. They have slight biases and uncertainties and can change their minds in a flash.
That wishy-washy attitude of the bulk of investors underscores what this market is missing right now -- confidence. Even the folks who look for an end-of-year seasonal bounce don't seem to really trust it will be anything other than a temporary respite amid a steady flow of negative news.
So what often drives the market is confidence that other folks share our feelings. We don't want to buy unless someone else is buying. We sit back and wait for indications that the buyers are stepping up, and only after we see some strength do we start to deploy our capital.
Confidence feeds on itself, and once it starts it drives more confidence and more buying. That is really what momentum is all about and why it works. Once buyers start feeling more secure, they get the ball rolling and it continues to roll while others start feeling more secure about buying as well.
We are a point now where the market could easily see some upside as a slight increase in confidence builds on itself. Once we get a few upticks, then buyers start thinking that end-of-year seasonality is finally kicking in and they become more secure about buying. That creates more strength, and before you know it, the folks on the sidelines are worried about being left behind, start jumping in and create more strength.
So maybe the mood isn't overtly negative, but it has been lacking in buying confidence. That can shift very quickly, and as it does the upside looks promising.
We have a good start this morning due to a number of strong earnings reports from the likes of Oracle (ORCL) , Nike (NKE) and FedEx (FDX) . Bear Stearns (BSC) is nearly flat on a poor report that seems to have been widely anticipated.
Trading is going to start to slow as the holiday break beckons, and that may lead to increased volatility. Don't be shy about taking profits when you have them.
No positions.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: VOL +20.6%, PIR +11.4%, MLHR +9.1% (also announces $200 mln share repurchase program), ORCL +6.5%, SCS +5.6% (also announces $250 mln share repurchase program), CAG +4.9%, ATVI +4.9%, ACN +4.7%, SMOD +3.7%, NKE +2.7%... M&A news: ECHO +108.1% (INTU to acquire ECHO for $17/share)... Other news: CNIC +20.4% (entered into a non-binding letter of interest with a third party), CGEN +18.6% (announces it has signed a collaborative discovery and license agreement with Roche), CNLG +17.6% (estimates 3-year backlog at over $4.5 mln, highest backlog of orders since the introduction of its new products), LOCM +8.0% (announces a strategic partnership with Citysearch), TSS +5.5% (will replace Synovus Financial (SNV) in the S&P 500 on 12/31), CRGN +4.9% (names Sean Cassidy as CFO), NVAX +4.7% (announces favorable interim results from Phase I/IIa Trial), CT +4.3% (announces $1.90/share special cash dividend), SLM +3.5% (says it and Citibank have amended the terms of the contracts so that there will be no trigger prices), LMC +2.9% (still checking), FDRY +2.8% (will replace Andrew (ANDW) in the S&P MidCap 400), RIMM +2.6% (still checking), ANPI +2.3% (authorized to begin Phase I trial of Multistem), NLY +2.2% (announces Q4 dividend 30% increase). Analyst upgrades: PBR +2.6% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), MA +2.2% (upgraded to Outperform at Bear Sterns), CLWR +2.1% (initiated with Buy at Stanford Financial).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: RAD -14.6%, RUTH -13.8%, XING -12.5%, LDK -12.3% (also downgraded to Sell at Piper Jaffray), LEG -5.4%, PAYX -5.2%, HWAY -4.1%... Other news: MBI -18.6% (bond risk soars as co discloses CDO-squared exposure; credit-default swaps climb 110 bps to 590 bps- Bloomberg), ARRY -18.3% (announces phase 2 study shows no apparent difference in efficacy between AZD6244 and temozolomide for the primary endpoint), ALTU -17.0% (reacquires ALTU-238 global development and commercialization rights, also downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia), PRST -15.5% (provides update regarding delayed quarterly filing of Form 10-Q for Q3 2007; also announced the SEC is conducting an informal inquiry), INGN -13.7% (plans to expand biomarker database in Phase 3 trials and file BLA and MAA for Advexin), FOLD -9.5% (announces positive results from phase 2 clinical trials of Amigal for Fabry Disease), NFI -8.2% (announces management changes), IDEV -7.8% (receives non-approvable letter from FDA for Valstar), GFI -3.3% (says overall attributable production for Q2 F2008 is expected to be down approximately 3.5% YoY), MICC -2.9% (still checking). Analyst downgrades: PCLN -2.9% (downgraded to Hold at Stifel). -
USA turud on avanemas tugevalt ülevalpool. Aastalõpuralli realiseerumas?
Saksamaa DAX +1.02%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.87%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.17%
Hispaania IBEX +0.55%
Venemaa MICEX +1.39%
Poola WIG +0.22%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.01%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.05%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.07%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.21%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.24%
Tai Set -2.02%
India Sensex +0.37%
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Veel üks põnev tabel juhtivate pankade write-down'ide kohta. Morgan Stanley tõusis eilsete uudiste järel kolmandale kohale ning mahakirjutamiste kogusumma on juba $70 miljardit. Allikas MarketWatch.
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Hmm, Pro all DBD ja FNDT sihid ikka kehtivad või on midagi muutunud?
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tundub, et kehtivad....
Ei taha kedagi küll maha teha, aga mõni investeerimisidee on omadega väga räigelt SOHU sõitnud... (JRCC, SCSS, DBD, FNDT) Kui neid järgida LHV-st, ja nad kogemata moodustavad sul olulise osa portfellist, siis SORRY, ei tahaks küll selle portfelli omanik olla ja selle eest ka veel maksta.
paistab, et LHV ei kasuta üldse stoppe kahjumite stoppimisteks...
meeles on soovitu sJRCC 27 USD pealt soovitus üles, millega sai sõidetud alla ja mingi -40% soovitati põrkega väljuda. Vahepeal oli -60% miinuses.
Sarnane idee on veel ka ju SCSS, kajumeid võiks ikka cut`da, muidu veidi nadi värk. -
Tasub jah need soovitused ennem virtuaalportfelli võtta. JRCC võtsin ka soovituse peale 200 tk virtuaali ja viskasin välja kui miinust oli tiksunud päris rahas 31 000 krooni.
Nüüd on virtuaalis teine staar SIX ja mis sa kostad miinust 3 000 $ tiksunud (1000 aktsiat). Seda hoian.
Moraal (mida kõik nikuinii teavad): enne soovitatud aktsiate ostu (ka siis kui soovitajad on profid) võtke need nn jälgimisnimekirja või oma virtuaalportfelli. Ostuga pole mõtet kiirustada. -
Mul on kasutusel olnud SIX, BW, SCSS, FNDT. SIX ja BW on korraliku kasumi toonud aga FNDT ja SCSS on praegugi portfellis kõva miinusega.
FNDT soetasin 15.12 ja SCSS 10.28 näpuka tõttu tuubeldasin 9.00-ga.
Ideedel ei ole viga kui ise sead stopid. On ju palju jahutud sel teemal, et stopp pane -5% kui kasumit ootad 10%. -
Tegemist on ilmselt investeerimisideedega, aga sellegipoolest peaks mingid stopid seadma, sest turuga on mõtetu võidelda. Igaljuhul head näited, miks ei saa alati fundamentaali arvestada, vaid kasutada tuleks ka stoppe, mis on jälle tehnilist laadi.
FNDT pean huvitavaks aktsiaks, mis langeb tänu pangandussektori probleemidele. Vaja oleks professionaalset analüüsi, et kui suur võib mõju siiski olla. Kardan, et Fundtechiga juhtub sama lugu, mis nii mõnegi aktsiaga sel aastal - langeb ja langeb ning siis tehakse väljaostupakkumine. Endal on sellest aastast kaks kogemust. Ja kogemus on piltlikult järgmine - FNDT langeb ca$10ni ja siis pakutakse +35% preemiat ehk kui praegu osta, siis ei tarvitse võitu ollagi ning see kes alustas ostmis $16 (näiteks mina), siis altpoolt juurdeostmine (+meeletu närvikulu) toob lõpuks 0 tulemuse. See on loomulikult vaid nägemus ja kõik võib ka teistmoodi minna. -
RIMM'i tulemused paistavad turule meeldivat ja aktsia kaupleb järelturul 10% kõrgemal:
16:10 RIMM Research In Motion beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (106.99 +4.86)
Reports Q3 (Nov) earnings of $0.65 per share, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.62; revenues rose 21.9% year/year to $1.67 bln vs the $1.65 bln consensus. RIMM reports sub accounts added of 1.65 mln, compared to previous guidance of 1.65 mln. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.66-0.70 vs. $0.65 consensus; sees Q4 revs of $1.80-1.87 bln vs. $1.75 bln consensus. RIMM sees Q4 net subscriber accounts to be approx 1.82 mln. The net income for Q3 includes a tax recovery of approximately $10.7 million resulting from the resolution of a tax matter relating to RIM's Investment Tax Credits. -
Nullpointer ja Bubble13,
Fundtechi (FNDT) soovitus kehtib kohe kindlasti ning olen ettevõtte osas üpris lilleliselt meelestatud. Fundtechi käive jääb $100 miljoni juurde, mis on võrreldes finantssektori poolt juba maha kirjutatud kümnetesse miljarditesse ulatuvate subprime kaotustega tõeline köömes ehk finantssektoril ei ole põhjust nende toodete järgi oma nõudlust reaalselt vähendada. Citigroup kulutab ilmselt oma 300 000 töötaja puuviljade peale aastas sama palju, kui on Fundtechi aastane müügitulu(300 000 töötajat, 250 päeva ja näiteks $1 päevas kulu = $75 miljonit).
Dieboldi(DBD) soovitus on samuti jõus, ent ei soovita selle osakaalu väga suureks ajada ja tuleb tunnistada endale ka kaasaskäivaid riske. DBD'lt ootame jätkuvalt viimaste kvartalite uuendatud numbreid, mida meie suhtluse tulemusena ettevõttega lootsime näha detsembri kuu jooksul, kuid võimalik siis, et peame pisut veel rohkem kannatust varuma. Olen lugenud päris mitmeid teiste analüüsimajade kommentaare, kes on samuti seisukohal, et aktsiad tunduvad hetkel kauplevat diskontoga oma reaalsele väärtusele puhtalt sellepärast, et investoreid on hoitud infosulus. Loodame, et see olukord muutub peagi, kuid raamatupidamislikud probleemid ei ole kunagi toredad (mis sest et isegi kõigest 10% müügitulust küsimärgi all) ning tuleb ka negatiivseteks üllatusteks valmis olla. Positsioonide täiendamiseks on ilmselt aega ka siis, kui ametlikud numbrid väljas ning luukeresid ettevõttel enam kapis ei tundu olevat. -
Citigroup võib ka seda teed minna, et koondab niipalju töötajaid, et saab järgmise viie aasta kokkuhoitud puuviljade eest Fundtechi ära osta :).
