Börsipäev 7. jaanuar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Aasta esimene kauplemisnädal selja taga ja võib öelda, et tänu taevale... Näiteks Dow Jones Industrial indeksi aasta esimese 3 päeva -3.5%line langus märgib kõige verisemat algust uuele aastale alates 1932. aastast. Seega turg on võtmas tööjõuraporti nõrku numbreid koos muude majandusandmetega tõsiselt ja arvestamas majanduslanguse võimalusega. Reedene päev oli see-eest aga juba puhas paanika päev ning mul tuleb tunnistada, et ei olekski uskunud, et kõik nii punaseks vajub. Emotsionaalsust näitab see, et müüdi absoluutselt kõike, mis kätte sattus.
Föderaalreservi istungini on aega natukene üle 3 nädala, mis tähendab, et tegelikult on Fedil võimalus mingil hetkel oma intressimäära poliitikat lõdvendada - seega (üleöö hoitavate) lühikeste positsioonidega soovitan olla väga ettevaatlik. Kui aega oleks 1 nädal, siis kahe istungi vahelisest kärpimise võimalusest poleks mõtet rääkida, kuid ajalooliselt vaadates on 2-3 nädalat enne istungit kärpeid erandolukordades tehtud küll. Tänasel päeval mingeid majandusaruandeid ei avalikustata. -
McDonald's (MCD) on tõestamas, et kiirtoidurestoranid ei ole minevik, vaid tänapäev ja tulevik. Vaja üksnes menüüd laiendada ja erinevate trikkidega inimesi sisse meelitada. Sedapuhku ollakse üle võtmas Starbucks'i kohvi-jookide kliente, kuna ollakse installeerimas erinevaid masinaid oma enam kui 14 000 USA restorani. Ettevõtte bränd on oma tööd hästi tegemas ning kunagi ebatervislike friikartulite ja burgerite tuntuks saanud McDonald's on tänaseks oma tegevusega kaudselt üle võtmas Starbucksi (SBUX) äri, Dunkin' Donutsi ning miks mitte varsti ka Baskin-Robbinsi kliente, kui jäätise valikut suurendatakse... MCD ärimudeli jäljendamist pole Burger King(BKC) kunagi eitanud ja just seetõttu ka neil hästi läheb (+võimekas juhtkond). Ja pealegi on BKC MCD'st jupp maad odavam. Üldiselt hea aeg selliste konservatiivsete ettevõtete ostmiseks (arvestades reedest paanikamüüki ja WENi nõrku tulemusi).
The Wall Street Journal reports starting this year, McDonald's (MCD) nearly 14,000 U.S. locations will install coffee bars with "baristas" serving cappuccinos, lattes, mochas and the Frappe, similar to Starbucks' (SBUX) ice-blended Frappuccino. Internal documents from 2007 say the program, which also will add smoothies and bottled beverages, will add $1 bln to McDonald's annual sales of $21.6 bln. McDonald's executives say they aren't launching espresso drinks to go after Starbucks, but instead to cater to consumers' growing interest in specialty drinks. And although McDonald's is encroaching on the business that Starbucks invented, analysts say McDonald's may pose more of a threat to Dunkin' Donuts, which has a more similar customer base. Analysts also point out that McDonald's overall beverage expansion, which includes bottled drinks, is as much aimed at taking business from convenience stores and vending machines as it is from specialty cafes. -
Ma ei saa sellest aru: "Reedene päev oli see-eest aga juba puhas paanika päev ning mul tuleb tunnistada, et ei olekski uskunud, et kõik nii punaseks vajub."
Reedel oligi ju NFP päev, ehk liikumise taga oli reaalne põhjus. -
"puhas paanika päev" on kindlasti liig. Me pole veel paanikat näinud. VIX ei indikeerinud mingit paanikat, võrreldes augustikuu põhjadega, pigem ühtlane ja stabiilne, reaalsete numbrite peale kukkumine.
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Selline lugu siis, mis näitab, et "smart money" on short S&P futuurides.
The COT Report:
The latest Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC shows that Commercial Hedgers sold 5,858 S&P 500 futures contracts last week to bring their net short position to -13,080 contracts. Large traders were net short -13,296 contracts, with Small Traders net long the remaining 26,376, the so-called "weak hands". For the Nasdaq 100 futures, Commercials sold 1,386 contracts last week to bring their net long position to 1,581 contracts. Small Traders were net long 3,248 contracts in the Nasdaq. Commercial action in Dow futures saw the smart money buy 200 contracts to bring their net long position to 6,042 contracts.
Commercial Hedgers were better sellers in the S&P's last week, while Small Traders were better buyers, a short term bearish sign. Commercials are now net short in the all important S&P futures, and that has been an intermediate term bearish sign historically. -
momentum, NFP muidugi ja kukkumine õigustatud, kuid kas sellises ulatuses? Näiteks tehnoloogiasektori üle 4.5%list miinust nüüd reaalsete numbrite peale liikumiseks ei nimetaks (kuumadest aktsiatest raha välja voolamine) ning minu silmis oli tegu paanikaga, mille vallandas NFP... Eks arvamusi ole erinevaid.
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EU Energy Commissioner Piebalgs says oil prices to reach $120/bbl this year.
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Saksamaa DAX +0.43%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.36%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.21%
Hispaania IBEX +0.41%
Venemaa MICEX N/A (börs suletud)
Poola WIG -1.62%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.30%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.24%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.60%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.41%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.04%
Tai Set -2.01%
India Sensex +0.61%
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If You Play the Bounces, Be Careful
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/7/2008 7:50 AM EST
What do you want to achieve or avoid? The answers to this question are objectives. How will you go about achieving your desired results? The answer to this you can call strategy.
-- William E. Rothschild
With the recent ugly economic news and the technical breakdown of the major indices, it is particularly important to be clear as to what our objectives and strategies should be for dealing with this market. Make no mistake about it -- the market is starting to downtrend, and we have to keep that firmly in mind as we assess what steps to take.
In an environment where the indices are breaking down, our primary objective should be to protect capital. If we don't let our portfolios slip, we avoid the very unproductive work of making up losses and are primed to have our accounts back at highs quickly when the market environment improves.
The objective of being defensive and not losing money in a poor market is just plain common sense, but the strategies you use in doing this are much more complex. You could simply sell everything and move to cash; in many cases, that isn't a bad idea at all. In a poor market, about 70% to 80% of stocks are likely to decline. The odds of success if you plan on simply holding positions is not very good.
If you are a more active investor, you can try to play the very sharp bounces that are common in a downtrending market and engage in short-selling as things break down. Catching bounces in a broken market can be tricky business, but it can pay off nicely -- they can be quite dramatic after a period of doom and gloom such as what we have seen to kick off 2008.
The most important thing about playing bounces in a downtrend is to be very disciplined. The last thing you want is to let a failed short-term trade turn into a long-term investment. If you misjudge a bounce, make sure you are quick; take your loss and move back to the sidelines. More chances will come along, but the important thing is to not let losses multiply, which they can do very quickly when we have the sort of selling we did this past Friday.
With the major indices down six days in a row and the Nasdaq off 8% during that time, it is pretty obvious that we are technically oversold and due for some relief from the selling pressure. The problem for the bulls is that there has been some real pain in this market lately, and a lot of folks will be happy to escape if they can cut their losses to some degree in a bounce. That is what overhead resistance is all about. Investors who have suffered by holding in a downtrend are inclined to sell as they get back closer to break-even.
What the bulls really need is some sort of positive catalyst. I continue to believe that the Fed will make a move soon and that that will be the catalyst for a bounce. I'm not sure it will hold up for long, but it should trigger a playable bounce.
I'll talk more about the chances of some sort of tradable bounce, but it is very important to remember that the bigger picture is negative, and trying to fight a downtrend is not a good way to make money. Play some bounces in the short term but in the longer term, focus on protecting capital.
We have some minor strength in the early going this morning. There isn't a lot of news out there and overseas markets are mixed. Market players are looking for excuses to buy but not finding much at the moment.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BLTI +29.3%, EBS +24.2%, PNTR +10.3%, AMMD +8.9%, PCBK +7.5%, BIIB +3.2%, ENTU +2.8%, CELG +2.1%, MR +1.4%, AVCT +1.3%... Solar sector showing strength on select solar stock news: ASTI +4.3%, JASO +3.0%, SPWR +2.3% (Sunpower and GE unit partner on California solar projects), ESLR +2.3% (tgt raised at Think Equity to $30), DSTI +2.1%, FSLR +1.4%... Other news: GBT +16.9% (announces $23.4 mln contract with Wuxi Angell Autocycle), FEED +9.0% (receives Chinese government grant), CNET +6.9% (investors said to seek a takeover of CNET - NYTimes), SEED +6.8% (still checking), NIHD +5.1% (announces Steven Dussek to join company as Chief Executive Officer; authorizes additional $500 mln share repurchase program), ESMK +5.0% (appoints Deloitte & Touche to serve as its independent auditor), HIMX +4.8% (MMM and Himax announce strategic alliance), VSCI +4.4% (gets FDA clearance for Cystoscope Device - DJ), GHDX +3.6% (announces collaboration with Pfizer to develop prognostic test for non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma), AEIS +3.3% (announces the resignation of Chief Operating Officer), SLM +2.6% (appoints Tony Terracciano Chairman of the Board), LOGI +2.6% (plans to buy more companies, CEO says - Bloomberg), JCOM +2.5% (announces that it has licensed its digital fax patents to Copia International), SPSS +2.3% (names Jack Noonan Chairman of Board), HOC +2.3% (announces that Bruce Shaw has been elected to the position of Senior VP and Chief Financial Officer ), SBUX +2.2% (Barron's bounce candidate for 2008; Friedman Billings believes SBUX is severely undervalued), ALTH +2.1% (initiates phase 2b study of PDX in patients with non-small cell lung cancer). Analyst upgrades: HMA +9.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia), O +9.1% (upgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia), TNE +4.9% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill), LRCX +3.0% (upgraded to Overweight at Lehman), FSLR +2.6% (initiated with a Buy at Merrill- Bloomberg), FMCN +2.2% (added to Piper Jaffray Alpha list), A +2.2% (upgraded to Buy at BofA). -
LHV Pro valik Altria (MO) on saanud Goldman Sachsilt hinnasihi kergituse - sedapuhku $85 pealt $89 peale. Altria on konservatiivne valik investeerimisobjektina ning kõrge dividenditulu lisab atraktiivsust veelgi. Pole siis ime, et MO on praegustelt tasemetelt Goldman Sachsi üks lemmikvalikuid 2008. aastaks. Oleme korduvalt rõhutanud, et võrreldes 10-aastase võlakirja tulususega on Altria fundamentaalselt ja riski/tulu suhtelt mõistlikum panus.
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Tuletan Altria puhul veel meelde, et jaanuari lõpp ei ole enam kaugel. Siis avaldatakse Q4 majandustulemused ning rahvusvahelise üksuse spin-offi täpne ajakava. Järjekordne hinnasihi tõstmine pakub kindlust, et aktsia suudab vastu panna ka turu üldisele negatiivsele meelestatusele.
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Mis turul toimub? Indeksite suund oli pool tunnikest lõunasse ja päikeseenergia sektor kukkus vist keskeltläbi 10% selle ajaga :P
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Värsked väljavõtted Paulsoni kõnest majandusteemadel...
US TREASURY'S PAULSON SAYS IMMEDIATE GOAL IS TO MINIMIZE IMPACT OF U.S. HOUSING DOWNTURN ON ECONOMY
PAULSON-SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED OR DISAPPOINTED TO SEE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS WRITING DOWN ASSETS
PAULSON SAYS NO SINGLE POLICY OR ACTION WILL UNDO "EXCESSES" OF RECENT YEAR -
Nafta kukub (-3% ja hind $95.2) ning turg tõuseb. Lähemate päevade volatiilsus saab minu silmis olema väga suur ning usun, et indeksite 2%lised päevasised kõikumised sarnaselt augusti esimestele päevadele on see, millega arvestada tuleb.
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Jyriado, üldiselt on lühikeste positsioonide osakaal viimasel ajal vähenenud ja seda toob ka Tony Crescenzy RealMoney all välja. Mida rohkem on lühikesi positsioone, seda suurem on tegelikult toetus turul. Kui lühikesi positsioone (ehk kindlustust languse vastu) on vähem, tuleb languse korral seda toita müümisega.
"In the week ended Jan. 1, non-commercial traders collectively were short 76,705 S&P 500 E-Mini contracts. That's a decrease of 207,000 from three weeks earlier, the smallest short base since the week ended June 26 and the second-lowest tally of net shorts since February.
In conventional S&P 500 contracts, the short base actually increased last week but the tally is still about half of what it was three weeks ago." -
Föderaalreservi liikmed on igaljuhul majanduse pärast muret tundmas...
Lockhart says yr-over-yr employment growth has slowed considerably over past 20 or so months
Lockhart says consumer spending weakening, but has not plunged
Lockhart sees weak economic growth first half of 2008, gradual improvement in second half
Lockhart says mkt contacts have serious concern about more market deterioration and spillover
Lockhart says negatives in U.S. economy may be gaining momentum
Atlanta Fed's Lockhart says time of heightened uncertainty over economy
Lockhart says continued dollar depreciation a risk
Lockhart says expect inflation to moderate in 2008 but high oil price may mean outlook too optimistic -
27. detsembri börsipäeva foorumis sai välja pakutud mõned võimalikud trendijooned S&P500 liikumist kajastavale SPY'le. Vaataks korra üle - iseenesest näeb praegune põrge täitsa kobe välja, kui üle 142 suudetaks sulguda.
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Details from Presidnt Bush's ongoing speech on the economy
In speech on the economy, President Bush says recent economicindicators increasingly mixed. Core inflation is low, except food and energy prices have risen. Says there is no quick fix for energy prices -- says we ought to be exploring for oil & gas in the U.S., and using nuclear power... Says we ought to be sending a signal to keep U.S. taxes low. -
Bushi kõnest tasub tähele panna järjekordset viidet tuumaenergiale. Tegemist ei ole küll uudisega, kuid USA on sarnaselt muu maailmaga hakanud taas suureneva huviga vaatama tuumajaamade poole. Uusi jaamasid juba ehitatakse, kuid mahte on plaanis suurendada, mis loob valdkonnas nii mõnegi hea investeerimisvõimaluse.
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Aga allikas?? Bloomberg, Kesknädal või muu?
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Heiti, õige märkus, vahel läheb meelest.
Inglise keeles veel foorumitesse ise ei kirjuta ning Bushi lõik pärit Briefingust. -
uraanikaevandajate ja -arendajate mingisuguse nimekirja võib leida näiteks siit: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page38?oid=42086&sn=Detail
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madis43
Need on liiga otseses sõltuvuses uraani hinnast, mille liikumist graafikut vaadates ennustada ei julge. Mõtlesin pigem ehitajaid või teisi ettevõtteid, kes jaamade ehitamisest kasu saavad. Aga hea nimekiri ikkagi! -
uraani poolt mõned argumendid: 2030. aastaks peaks maailma energiavajadus olema kahekordistunud, nafta ei suuda kindlasti oma positsiooni säilitada, ka igasugused söed oleks küllaltki kahtlane valik, taastuvenergia osatähtsuse meeletut kasvu ei ennusta keegi, järgi jääb ainult uraan. Uraani kaevandused katavad tuumajaamade vajadustest praegu umbes 60%, kui eeldada tuumaenergia kasvu maailma tarbimises praeguselt 16% näiteks 25% juurde, peaks kaevandamisvõimsus kasvama umbes 5 korda, mis eeldaks küllaltki kõrgeid uraanihindu.
ettevaatust: olen pikk uraanikaevandaja(te)s -
kindlasti on ka teisi ettevõtteid, mis teemast kasu lõikavad, aga enamasti ei oleks nad kuigi suuresti mõjutatud uraanituru kasvust tervikuna, kui ikka täiega tahta osa saada, siis oleks valik ikkagi kaevandused või Uranium Participacion Corp näiteks, mis investeerib nii kaevandajatesse kui metalli endasse
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ärge Usecit (USU) alahinnake. Firma fundamentaalid üsna muljetavaldavad ning turupositsioon tugev
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Maailma suurim tuumajaamade tootja on Areva (CEI.PA). Hiljuti kirjutas Prantsusmaa president Sarkozy alla lepingule Hiinaga, millega Areva saab 8 miljardi euro eest töid Hiinas, samuti ehitab Areva Soomes Olikiluoto 3.
Prantsuse riik omab Arevast 87%. -
Lisaks, Arevasse investeerides ei pea vaatama, kuidas dollari langus investeeringut sööb.
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good point, Sidekick.
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US recession is already here, warns Merrill - Daily Telegraph
Daily Telegraph reports the US has entered its first full-blown economic recession in 16 years, according to investment bank Merrill Lynch. David Rosenberg, the bank's chief North American economist, argues that a weakening employment picture and declining retail sales signal the economy has tipped into its first month of recession. Mr Rosenberg, who is well-respected on Wall Street, argues: "According to our analysis, this [recession] isn't even a forecast any more but is a present day reality." Mr Rosenberg points to a whole batch of negative data to support his analysis, including the four key barometers used by the National Bureau of Economic Research - employment, real personal income, industrial production, and real sales activity in retail and manufacturing... although the NEBR will be the final arbiter of any recession, such confirmation may be two years away as it typically waits for conclusive evidence including benchmark revisions. However, he believes that all four of these barometers "seem to have peaked around the Nov-Dec period, strongly suggesting that we are actually into the first month of a recession." -
Minuni on jõudnud üks päris huvitav nii-öelda komöödialink, kus Briti huumoriga seletatakse lihtsalt ja loogiliselt lahti, kuidas finantsturu probleemid alguse said ja üleüldse, et mis asi on subprime mess.
Päeva lõpetuseks sobib vaadata küll ja patt oleks linki mitte jagada. Youtube'st saab seda vaadata siit.
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Mingi hetk tulevikus võetakse vist ka toorium tuumareaktorites kasutusele. Seda peaks maardlates 3 korda rohkem leiduma, kui uraani.
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Xemplar Kanadast, üks uraaniotsija, on võib-olla leidnud hiiglasliku uraaniprovintsi Namiibiast. Kuigi puurimistulemused on hetkel käes ainult kuuest august, on aktsiahind tõusnud aastaga umbes 900%, ehk lootused on turul küllalt kõrgele aetud. Räägitakse ka Rio Tinto huvist projekti vastu, kui peaks edasised tulemused asja tõestama. Kui sellest projektist peakski tulema see, mida Xemplari juhtkond usub, siis tähendaks see uraanihindadele põrgut ja arvatavasti uraanienergia edasist võidukõiku. Praegu vaatan ma ise seda projekti kui järjekordset exploration haipi, ometi, et hedgeda enda ülejäänud uraaniposse, kavatsen ka seda lisada näpuotsaga.
Üks artikkel siin: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page67?oid=44371&sn=Detail
