Börsipäev 14. jaanuar
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Neljapäeval on oodata järjekordset Bernanke kõnet majanduse kohta, sedakorda siis USA Kongressi ees. Turud ootavad kinnitust eelmisel nädalal räägitule, mis viitaks 0.5% suurusele intressimäärade kärpimisele. Samas on hakatud kõvema häälega rääkima ka määrade langetamisest 0.75% ulatuses, futuurid hindavad selle tõenäosuseks 34%. Panustada taolisele võimalusele siiski ei maksaks, sest Fedi toon on reeglina olnud turu omast positiivsem ja nii suur kärbe viitaks pigem paanikale.
Enne Bernanke kõnet avaldatakse veel andmed PPI ja CPI kohta ning Fedi Beige Book.
Kvartalitulemused avaldavad nädala jooksul teiste seas: Genetech (DNA), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Citigroup (C), Intel (INTC), J.P. Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Logitech (LOGI), First Horizon (FHN), Continental Air (CAL), Merrill Lynch (MER), Novartis (NVS), IBM, AMD, Washington Mutual (WM), General Electric (GE). -
CNBC veebilehel avaldatud artikli järgi võib Citigroup ( C ) teatada $24 mld väärtuses varade mahakandmisest, dividendi maksmise peatamisest ning ligi 20 000 töötaja koondamisest. Uhh!
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.....ja Citi osas tuleb veel uudised :
Citigroup Inc.'s plans to raise capital by selling a stake of about $2 billion to China Development Bank could be in jeopardy because of opposition from China's government, according to a person familiar with the situation. (WSJ)
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The $200 billion Kuwait Investment Authority had no immediate comment on Monday on a report it may buy into Merrill Lynch and Citigroup Inc, two U.S. banks hit by credit market losses
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Negatiivseid märke tuleb USA majandusest rohkem, kui neid üles juba jõuab lugeda ning agressiivne ekspansiivne rahapoliitika on tõenäoline. 4. kvartali kasumihoiatuse andis jaemüüja Sears Holding (SHLD), kes näeb jaanuariga lõppeva kvartali kasumit vahemikus $2.59 - $3.48 vs konsensusootus $4.43. 9 nädala SSS-id Searsi poodides -2.8% ja Kmartis -4.2%. Koledad numbrid...
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IBM on tõestamas, et tehnikat ikka müüakse ning 4. kvartali EPSi nähakse $2.80 vs konsensus $2.60; müügitulu $28.9 miljardit vs $27.82 miljardit konsensus. Tänusõnad IBM'lt Euroopale, Aasiale ning arenevatele turgudele.
"The broad scope of IBM's global business --- led by strong operational performance in Asia, Europe and emerging countries --- drove these outstanding results,"
Sears -10%, IBM +9%. -
Tunnen kaasa rumalale rahale, mis USA-s varasid seotab.
Fifty Cents On The Dollar: The Empire State Building Story -
peale CFC ostu Bank of America poolt nähakse järgmiste ostukandidaatidena raskustes mortgage laenajaid Washington Mutual ja IndyMac, WM eelturul +1,50% kui käivad jutud JP Morgani ostuhuvist
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Harman (HAR) on ka üle 10% miinuspoolel kauplemas ning põhjuseks 2008. aasta müügiprognoosi langetamine - paharetiks siin hinnasõda PND turul, mis kogu sealset tööstusharu halvamas. Kasumiprognoosi langetatakse $3.00-$3.10 peale vs konsensus $4.31.
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Harmani kasumihoiatuse peale on reageerinud ka suurkonkurendi Garmini (GRMN) aktsia. Hoiatus tuli välja kell 8:00 NYC-i aja järgi ning kui üldise positiivse fooni tõttu kauples Garmini plussis, siis pärast antud uudist on eelturul järjest madalamale liigutud ning hetkel on aktsia $68.5 tasemel ehk ligi 4% miinuses.
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Eelkõige tänu positiivsele kasumiootuse korrigeerimisele IBM'ilt on USA turg kenasti ülevalt pool avanemas. S&P500 ca +0.6% ning tehnoloogiasektor ca +1.3%.
Saksamaa DAX +0.43%Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.80%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.71%
Hispaania IBEX +0.48%
Venemaa MICEX +0.63%
Poola WIG -2.23%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 N/A (börs suletud)
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.48%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.24%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.21%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.52%
Tai Set -0.67%
India Sensex -0.48%
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Stay Patient in a Turbulent Market
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/14/2008 7:39 AM EST
Without the strength to endure the crisis, one will not see the opportunity within. It is within the process of endurance that opportunity reveals itself.
-- Chin-Ning Chu
The market has been acting very poorly lately, and indications are that this downtrend may continue for a while. That isn't a very cheerful thought, but we must keep in mind that if we stay patient, great opportunities are likely to emerge.
There are two basic ways to deal with a bear market. For most investors, the best way is to raise large levels of cash and wait on the sidelines until there is more positive action. The key is not to be sucked back in prematurely when we experience the inevitable sharp bounces.
A longer-term investor who sits on cash, out of harm's way, is going to be in great position to pounce on opportunities that will arise as the present crisis plays out. The key is to make sure you don't waste your emotional and financial capital fighting the downtrend. If you can embrace the fact we are in a downtrend and let it play out, you will profit greatly down the road.
The other way to deal with a market like this is to take a very short-term approach and try to play the bounces that are sure to occur. The upside reversals within a steep downtrend can be very big and swift. You can do very well if you time them right, but it is a dangerous game to play. It is very easy to let failed short-term trades turn into long-term investments as you wait for the bounce you are certain will come. Before you know it, you are buried in red ink and struggling to find a way out.
Whatever approach you take to dealing with a tough market, the most important thing is to respect the trend. Trends have a great tendency to persist longer than we think is reasonable. That is because we aren't dealing with logic. We are dealing with emotions, and emotions tend to gain momentum once they start to develop. It is only when the feelings and emotions of market players are so extreme that they have acted on them completely that a lasting turn will come.
We are clearly in a downtrend market that is due for a bounce but can't seem to find any good reason to do so. Many are looking for the Fed to make a move or some sort of fiscal stimulation package from Congress, but anticipation of such things doesn't seem to be enough to give buyers confidence.
Earnings season is coming up as well, and no one seems to be expecting anything very good. Sears (SHLD) this morning gave us a taste of what many expect, with a substantial cut in its earnings forecast. The stock is indicated down more than $10 as I write.
It is extremely gloomy and negative, but the opportunities will come. Just stay patient and keep losses small and fast.
Despite the warning from SHLD, the indices are indicated about flat at the moment. Overseas markets were mixed. Oil and gold are trading up.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SSTR +12.7%, IBM +8.5%, SANM +7.7%, FCSX +6.4%, NILE +3.1%, LPL +2.1%... M&A news: ASVI +42.4% (to be acquired by TEX for $18/share), GCGC +33.3% (to be acquired by AngloGold Ashanti for $14.38/share)... Select gold stocks showing strength with gold trading +1.5% and setting a new record high: DROOY +13.8%, AUY +4.9% (Cramer makes positive comments and has CEO as guest on MadMoney), AU +2.8%, HMY +2.8%, GFI +2.3%... Other news: ANX +53.7% (says ANX-530 demonstrates statistically significant reduction in injection site reactions), CGEN +7.5% (announces discovery and license option agreement with Merck), WCG +6.4% (C.M.S approves service area expansion application and contract renewal in 8-K), SEED +5.4% (continues Friday's momentum into the close), NOK +5.0% (still checking), NWA +3.7% (CEO says company could benefit from merger - AP; also upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), TEX +3.2% (Barron's makes positive comments and mentions as take-over tgt; Cramer also make positive comments on MadMoney), IFX +3.1% (still checking), KG +3.0% (reports FDA approval of revised labeling regarding purity of THROMBIN-JMI; hearing upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm), ALU +2.9% (still checking), UBS +2.0-% (may be split up, face more writedowns, SonntagsZeitung says - Bloomberg). Analyst upgrades: ADCT +4.7% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), VCLK +4.2% (upgraded to Outperform at RBC), YGE +4.1% (initiated with Buy at Merrill; also tgt raised to $65 at Piper Jaffray ), RFMD +3.2% (upgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), BBBY +2.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), UA +2.2% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: HAR -18.8%, SHLD -9.8% (also hearing downgraded to Sell at tier 1 firm and downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), SNS -9.3%, TTI -6.3%, CPWR -5.6%, MTB -3.7%... Other news: OPWV -7.3% (appoints new Chairman of the Board and departure of CFO), SOV -7.3% (expects fourth quarter charges), MBI -3.6% (sells $1 bln 25-yr surplus notes yielding 14%), GRMN -3.4% (Harmon lowered guidance cites industry-wide PND pricing pressure, Wedbush cut tgt to $97 from $134), FBR -3.0% (subsidiary First NLC to liquidate; does not expect to recover its remaining $12 mln investment), SNP -2.6% (still checking)... Analyst downgrades: ACF -6.6% (downgraded to Underperform at Friedman billings), TSL -4.1% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill), COH -3.2% (hearing downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), ESRX -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), ARO -1.6% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill). -
UBS rõhutab, et Burger Kingi (BKC) viimase aja kukkumine on ostukohta pakkumas:
UBS notes MCD and BKC has sold off by 14% and 20% in the last month amid investor concern about Dec being the first month of a big slowdown in U.S. sales, and that int'l markets could begin to slow—perhaps leading to some CY08 EPS risk. They believe these fears are overblown, leading to a buying opportunity. -
The Steak n Shake Company (SNS) see-eest saab vastu päid ja jalgu täna.
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IDCC has got new friends:
InterDigital Signs Giant Electronics to Worldwide 2G and 3G Patent License Agreement -
ibm on pigem ikka tarkvara kui tehnikamüügi ettevõtte?
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Ütleme siis, et sai pisut ebakorrektselt end väljendatud - tehnoloogiaettevõte.
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Muideks...kes tahab Venemaale investeerida läbi USA turu, siis ka see võimalus olemas. Sattusin täna sellisele täiesti likviidsele börsil kaubeldavale fondile nagu RSX ehk Market Vectors Russia ETF.
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Ja kes veel natuke Ida-Euroopat suudab portfellis taluda, saab Venemaale investeerida ka TRF kaudu.
