LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 16. jaanuar

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  • Täna on oodata tarbijahinnaindeksi numbreid.

    Non-core CPI puhul oodatakse kuu tõusu 0.3%, mis aastasel baasil tähendab 4.1%-list kasvu. See on kaks korda rohkem kui augustis enne nafta hindade tugevat tõusu. Põhiosa CPI puhul oodatakse aastast tõusu 2.4%, mis on endiselt kõrgem, kui vaja oleks. Turg ootab kindlasti madalamaid numbreid, see lubaks Fedil ka vabamalt intressimäärasid langetada. Graafik Briefingust:

    CPI muutus

  • JPM prelim $0.86 vs $0.92 First Call consensus; revs $18.27 bln vs $17.05 bln First Call consensus
  • Kamaz (KMAZ) avaldas eile oma 2007. aasta majandustulemused, tulud tõusid aastasel baasil 22.8% RUB 85.25 miljardini. Aasta jooksul müüdi 52 648 masinat, mis on 20% enam võrreldes eelmise aastaga. Tulemused on igal juhul head ning Kamaz ise üks ütlemata vahva ettevõte. :)

    Kamazi äri hoiavad jätkusuutlikuna importtollid ja valitsuse tugi, mis tähendavad õhemat konkurentsi raskeveokite turul. Lisaks on Venemaal jätkuv ehitusbuum, naftaväljade ja metallikaevanduste arendamine ning infrastruktuuri ehitamine.

    Samas ei soovita ettevõtet näppida, vene äri eripärad (ehk IFRSi puudumine) võivad üle jõu käia.

  • BEA Systems(BEAS) võetakse Oracle(ORCL) poolt üle ning preemiat makstakse aktsiate eest eilset sulgumishinda arvestades ca 25% ehk aktsia hinnaks $19.375. Pole paha. Ülevõtt toimub raha eest ning Oracle'il tuleb BEASi raha arvestades välja käia $7.2 miljardit.
  • Wells Fargo(WFC) tulemused ootustele vastavad. Aktsiapõhist kasumit 41 senti ehk täpselt see, mis oodatud. Müügitulud $10.21 miljardit vs oodatud $10.08 miljardit. Varade mahakirjutamised väga suureks ei paisu ning tehti seda mahus $1.2 miljardit. Aga ettevõte on silmad lahti ringi vaatamas, kuidas oma tänast rahavaru kasumlikult rakendada, öeldes sarnaselt nii mõnele teiselegi finantsasutusele, et võimalusi finantssektoris on enam kui viimase 5 aasta jooksul: Aktsia eelturul plusspoolel.

    With our strong capital position, the challenges facing the industry and the significant upward re-pricing of asset spreads, we are finding significantly more opportunities now for acquisitions, portfolio purchases, and attractive loan and asset purchases than we have seen in the past five years
  • Inflatsiooni arvestamise seisukohalt äärmiselt oluline täna avaldatud detsembrikuu tarbijahinnaindeksi põhiosa näitas +0.2%list kasvu vs oodatud +0.2%. Koos energia- ja kütusehindadega oli tõus +0.3% vs oodatud +0.2%. Aastasele baasile viiduna on core CPI kasv +2.4%.
  • USA turgude negatiivsus on levinud ka mujale maailma:

    Saksamaa DAX -0.99%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.16%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.95%

    Hispaania IBEX -0.94%

    Venemaa MICEX -5.20%

    Poola WIG -3.98%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -3.35%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -5.29%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.82%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.76%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -3.25%

    Tai Set -0.72%

    India Sensex -1.89%

  • Knowledge Is Harmful

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/16/2008 8:22 AM EST

    Dangers bring fears, and fears more dangers bring.
    -- Richard Baxter


    The market has been caught in a downward spiral of negativity, which is reinforced by a steady stream of bad news. The latest is a poor report from Intel (INTC), which many thought might be OK after IBM (IBM) preannounced positive news on Monday.

    Unfortunately, we can't quite seem to manage the sort of really intense selling that produces a snapback rally. Volume is not particularly heavy, and even on a morning like today, there are dip-buyers anxious to jump in even though we still have the very important CPI report coming up.

    In a market that has been punished like this one, there is a great desire to try to catch a bounce. We all know that when we fall fast and hard, there is a tendency for quick, but temporary, reversals. Adding to the anxiety over catching the turn is that we all know that the Fed is going to cut interest rates sooner or later. Although it may not last long, the market will most likely move higher on the news of Fed action.

    So while the market is tremendously ugly and the trend is clearly downward, we aren't getting enough real negativity to deliver the bounce that we all know is coming. Perhaps the fact that we all seem to know that it is coming is the real problem.

    In this market, it is very important to know your style of investing and to stay disciplined. We are going to read a lot from people who are intently focused on calling market turns. Doug Kass, for example, started calling for a turn in financials on Monday and started going long the PoswerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ ) yesterday. His style is to be a contrarian, and while it might work for him, it is a very difficult approach for others to copy.

    The much more dangerous approach is that taken by the long term buy-and-hold pundits, who are already calling this selloff a great long-term buying opportunity. The market is not even close to putting in a meaningful bottom. That doesn't mean we won't get the sort of bounce Doug Kass is looking for, but this is certainly not the time to start putting long-term capital to work.

    The most costly thing you can do in the market is to try to catch the absolute top or bottom. People love to do it because it makes them feel smart, but it is a dangerous and difficult game. The way to make money is to take cover in a poor market and stay there until there is some real evidence of better action.

    We have the CPI report coming up shortly, which is very important because it will affect how aggressive the Fed can be. If we have signs of inflation, the market is going to worry that the already slow-moving Fed may be even slower.

    Buckle up and put on your trading helmet. It is going to be an interesting day.


    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: THRM +19.0%, CHIC +12.4%, NITE +11.8%, LLTC +3.2%, LCRY +2.9%, WFC +2.7%, ERIC +2.2%... M&A news: VSTA + 21.3% (to be acquired by Odyssey Healthcare for $8.60/share), BEAS + 18.7% (to be acquired by Oracle for $19.375/share)... Other news: GRRF +7.9% (won bid for 100 Million Yuan RF order), BRLC +5.8% (announces that it has signed an LCD panel supply agreement with Sharp Electronic), SSTI +4.7% (announces completion of its stock option review and filing of its 2006 annual report), LOOK +4.5% (commences Dutch Auction tender offer at price range of $3.40-4.15/share), MGM +4.4% (MGM Mirage, Dubai World boost tender offer), CEPH +1.8% (discloses restructuring plan and associated costs of approx $34-47 mln), CIT +1.7% (announces its Board has declared a regular quarterly cash dividend), TTMI +1.3% (announces filing of shelf registration statement for maximum aggregate of $200 mln)... Analyst upgrades: IBN +3.0% (tgt raised to $87 from $62 at Jefferies), ENTR +3.0% (initiated with a Strong Buy at JMP, initiated with Buy at ThinkEquity), VRTX +2.9% (upgraded to Buy at BofA), TLAB +26% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), AZN +2.3% (hearing upgraded to Buy at tier-1 firm), DEO +2.2% (upgraded to Overweight at Lehman), SVU +2.1% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at BofA), CBEY +1.6% (upgraded to Buy at Needham).
  • Sen. Schumer says Bernanke told him U.S. fiscal stimulus needed, Fed would be supportive
  • Naftavarude oodatust suurem kasv lükkas barreli hinna korraks ka alla $90.
  • Päris arvestatav uudis IT vallast. Sun ostis Soome-Rootsi taustaga tasuta andmebaasitarkvara tootva MySQL-i. Suni Java kõrvale ehk tekib ka mingeid sünergiaid, kuid Suni plaanide ja motiividega siiski kursis pole.

    Kui võrrelda Skype tiimiga, kes vist teenis 4 peale 2 miljardit krooni (kuivõrd see summa praegu peale Skype tulemusi ning eBay aktsia liikumist muutunud on, ei tea), siis MySQL-i algse soomerootslastest arendajakolmiku saagiks jäi üle 100 miljoni EUR suurune summa.

    Analüütikud on tehingu osas skeptilised ning peavad hinda kalliks.
  • Täna plussis: jaemüüjad ja majadeehitajad (ja finantssektor). Päris huvitav kompott sellise miinuses turu kohta, sest need on ju punasel turul olnud ikka need kõige punasemad. Indikatsioon selle kohta, et pisut leevendust tulemas pullidele?
  • Järjepidevuse huvides postitan siia ka sellise uudislõigu Briefingust:

    U.S. economic stimulus legislation could be enacted within 1 month , according to "Key House Democrat Hoyer"
  • Ausalt öeldes Fedi Beeži raamatust midagi uut silma ei jää.

    FED BEIGE BOOK: MANUFACTURING VARIED, WITH PRONOUNCED SOFTNESS IN CONSTRUCTION-RELATED INDUSTRIES
    Fed Beige Book says residential real estate 'quite weak' in all regions
    FED: U.S. RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NATION, COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MIXED
    Fed Beige Book says 3 districts reported slowing growth - Bloomberg
    FED BEIGE BOOK: HOLIDAY RETAIL SPENDING WAS SUBDUED, WITH FURTHER WEAKNESS IN AUTO SALES
    Fed Biege book reports economic activity rose at a "slow pace"
    Fed Beige Book says job markets remained relatively tight, says 7 areas saw slight increase in activity

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