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Börsipäev 25. jaanuar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Eilse börsipäeva öistel tundidel teatas Microsoft (MSFT) oma fiskaalaasta teise kvartali (FQ2 08) tulemused, mis valmistasid aktsionäridele ja kogu turule tervikuna meeldiva üllatuse. Aga eks numbrid räägivad juba enda eest:

    Aktsiapõhist kasumit teeniti $0.50 vs ootus $0.46 ning müügitulu oli ootustest ca 2.5% suurem. 3. kvartaliks anti ootustele vastav prognoos aktsiapõhise kasumi osas $0.43-$0.45 vs konsensus $0.44 ning müügitulu $14.3-14.6 miljardit vs konsensus $14.43 miljardit. Rõõmustav oli aga MSFTi agressiivne prognoos 2008. fiskaalaastaks, sest kasumit nähakse ootustest ca 3% võrra suuremana ($1.85-$1.88 vs ootus $1.81) ning müügitulu $59.9-$60.5 miljardit vs ootus $59.36 miljardit. Need on julged prognoosid praeguses turukeskkonnad ning vaevalt Microsoft neid välja käiks, kui neil ei oleks äärmiselt tugevat enesekindlust nende saavutamise osas. Oma äritegevust kommenteerides öeldi, et nähakse suurt nõudlust nii ettevõtetelt kui ka tarbijatelt USAs ning kasv arenevatel turgudel on eriti tugev (60% Microsofti müügitulust tuleb väljaspoolt USAd). Kogu konverentsikõne ajal oli juhtkond väljendamas positiivset meelsust tuleviku osas ning tegevusmarginaale nähakse samuti väga tugevatel tasemetel 2008. aastal.

    Kui eelmise aasta müügitulu edasilükkamisega numbrid läbi korrigeerida, siis kasvatati aastataguse perioodiga seda väga tublid 15%. Kasv on muljetavaldav pea kõigis segmentides ning bilansileht äärmiselt tugev. Eraldi toodi välja suurt nõudlust Windows Vista ja Office 2007 ning Xboxi järele.

  • Microsofti kasumit võib tublisti kasvatada võitlus piraatlusega. Viimastel aegadel on üle maailma sulgetud väga suuri ning mahukaid torrenti lehekülgi. Üks suuremaid oli OiNK. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/tees/7057812.stm
  • Pirate Bay on see eest pidurdamatu (ja mh. avasid nad uuesti Suprnova) ;-)
    Ei usu, et piraatlus siin midagi mõjutab. Kes on otsustanud osta, ostab, kes on otsustanud tõmmata, tõmbab.
  • OiNKist oli küll kahju.. Eestisse saatvate netipoodide valik on nagu on, kui sa mainstream kuulaja pole ja Eesti poodides olev muusikavalik on absoluutselt alla igasuguse arvestuse.
  • Caterpillar (CAT) teatab ootustele vastavatest tulemustest. Aktsiapõhist kasumit teeniti viimases kvartalis $1.50 vs oodatud $1.50, müügitulude osas jäädi oodatule alla 3.6%. 2008. aastat vaadates näeb ettevõte müügitulu kasvu 5% kuni 10% ning aktsiapõhise kasumi kasvu 5% kuni 15%. USAst oodatakse 2008. aastalt kasinat kasvu, ülejäänud maailma osas ollakse aga oluliselt positiivsemalt meelestatud. Sellised sõnad Caterpillari kaliibriga ettevõttelt on olulised.
  • tajumaks sentimenti on hea vaadata ka kuidas turg reageerib uudise peale ... CAT eelturul +3,45%
  • Aasia turud kauplevad justkui 'õnnelikud päevad' oleksid tagasi. Tasapisi hakatakse seal liiale minema...

    Saksamaa DAX +1.85%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.36%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.92%

    Hispaania IBEX +2.03%

    Venemaa MICEX +2.04%

    Poola WIG +0.59%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +4.10%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +6.73%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.94%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.13%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2.32%

    Tai Set +5.05%

    India Sensex +6.62%

  • Ride the Bounce But Be Wary
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/25/2008 8:11 AM EST

    One's best success comes after their greatest disappointments. --Henry Ward Beecher

    Excellent earnings and guidance from Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq), talk about a takeover of a bond insurer and speculation that the massive sell-off on Tuesday was an aberration caused by the unwinding of a rogue trade at a European bank are helping to keep the market bounce going. Market players couldn't dump stocks fast enough on Tuesday morning, and now they are panicked that they may miss out on upside.

    The question of course is whether the big selloff on Tuesday, along with the Fed interest rate cut and the fiscal stimulus plan, has put a bottom in the market. Are our major problems and worries now priced in and dismissed? Is the market ready to keep on running from here or is this just a bear market bounce that will lead to disappointment once again?

    Technically the market is still badly broken and a rally of a few days, even a massive one like this, isn't going to fix the charts. These sort of 'V' shape bounces in a broken market can be quite stunning in their magnitude and power but typically they lead to profit taking by short termers and new shorting by bears.

    A number of times last year the market had V-shaped bounces that kept on going straight up. That caused great consternation for the bears who were squeezed and ended up fueling the move. This time, things are a bit different as the economic negatives are more obvious and the damage to charts much more severe.

    Nonetheless the nature of bear market bounces is that they look so good that you want to conclude that the bear market is over and its time to be fully long. The real pain comes as positive buyers are sucked back in and then disappointed. After that occurs a few times all optimism is wrung out and a bottom can occur. We are a long way from that sort of action at this point.

    That doesn't mean this bounce can't continue a while longer. Underinvested bulls and overaggressive shorts are scrambling this morning to deal with this strength. The quick reversal the last couple days has left many folks positioned defensively and some of them are going to panic inversely to the way they did on Tuesday and start buying blindly.

    I have a few trades going but also have a very high level of cash. I'm not worrying about my lack of long-term positions at all and will stick with very short-term trades. I believe we are going to have some excellent shorting opportunities soon but now is the time to play the bounce and to reposition into strength.

    This is a very tricky market and if you have been struggling with it you aren't alone. The key is to keep your emotions in check and not to be influenced by the media as it quickly declares that all our problems are behind us.

    We have a strong open following good action overseas. Gold is up big and oil is back over the $90 mark. Buckle on your helmet and adjust your trading goggles. It is going to be tricky out there.
    ---------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SCSC +26.4% (also upgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Sterns), PKI +18.9%, EZPW +14.5%, VPRT +13.6%, BRCM +13.3%, CVTI +12.6%, ETFC +9.2%, LSCC +9.0%, INSW +8.3%, EXTR +7.3%, CPWR +6.4% (also upgraded to Buy at Piper), CNXT +6.3%, RLRN +6.0%, WFR +5.4% (also tgt raised at Piper), JNPR +5.2%, MCHP +5.1% (also upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), MSFT +4.5%, EMN +4.4% (also expects strategic initiatives to double EPS to $10 by 2012), AMGN +4.1% (also announces Denosumab Osteoporosis study met primary and all secondary bone mineral density endpoints), OPWV + 4.0%, PRST + 3.5%, CRDC + 3.4%, FRNT +3.4%, PMCS +2.5%, APEI +2.1%, CAT +1.9%, CSH +1.9%, ESIO +1.9%, BKUNA +1.8%, PII +1.8%, JJSF +1.6%, LEG +1.5%, KNSY +1.4%, JAVA +1.4%, HON +1.4%, LRCX +1.3%, APOG +1.3%, ABFS +1.1%... M&A news: RSTO +7.5% (enters into amendment to merger agreement with Catterton Partners; $4.50/share in cash)... Select tech stocks showing strength with several companies reporting earnings in the sector: BIDU +4.8%, CSCO +3.5%, MRVL +3.2%, RIMM +2.4%, GOOG +2.4%, DELL +2.2%, INTC +1.9%... Other news: CNIC +13.0% (announces agreement with Yellow Pages Group to provide local content to the Mamma.Com search engine), ABK +13.0% (Wilbur Ross in takeover talks with ABK, according to U.K.'s Evening Standard - Reuters), RFMD +8.6% (still checking), GFG +7.5% (Carl Icahn discloses 9.8% stake in SC 13D filing), ESLR +5.2% (ESLR and MMWEC announce joint effort to promote solar use in municipal utility communities), TMA +3.4% (Richard Rainwater discloses 13% stake in SC 13D), BSC +3.4% (Cramer discusses possibility of M&A on MadMoney), NVDA +3.2% (working on first GPGPUs for Apple Macs - AppleInsider), NUVO +3.1% (announces results from Phase 3 NAPA program in Acute Peripheral Arterial Occlusion), FCX +3.1% (still checking), MBI +2.8% (up in sympathy with ABK), BHP +2.7% (Coal shortage at BHP may lift steel price), CHINA +2.5% (provides update on insider buying), TOL +2.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), ARNA +2.2% (announces that MRK initiated a Phase 1 clinical trial of a second generation oral niacin receptor), CHL +2.1% (CEO sees 6 mln net new customers per month in 2008 - DJ)

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: SYNA -20.6%, TPX -11.7%, ITI -10.4%, TGI -8.5%, ZION -7.5%, VSEA -6.9% (also tgt cut to $51 at Stifel), IDTI -6.8% (also downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), STKL -5.9%, RDY -5.5%, IBKR -4.4%, LABL -3.3%, KLAC -1.4%, DV -1.3%, UB -1.2%... South African mining cos trading lower after country's national power utility, Eskom, said it could not guarantee today's power supply: GFI -11.1%, DROOY -10.7%, HMY -9.7%, AU -8.3%; South African platinum miners ANO -1.7% and PLG also ticking lower... Other news: MBRK -6.3% (announces an 8.75 mln share common stock private placement offering priced at $2.40/share), RIGL -4.4% (announces offering of 4 mln shares of common stock), DBTK -4.0% (files S-3 for the sale of 3.18 mln shares by selling stockholders)... Analyst downgrades: IDTI -6.7% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), SNV -2.1% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette).
  • Kiire graafik Caterpillari (CAT) 'populaarsusest' regioonide lõikes. Toon välja müügitulude kasvud:

    Q4 07 kasvudMasinad (66% müügitulust)Mootorid (28% müügitulust)
    Põhja-Ameerika-7%-23%
    EMEA+32%+36%
    Ladina-Ameerika+29%-8%
    Aasia/Vaikne-Ookean+40%+31%
  • Arvestades veresauna, mis toimus börsidel eelmise nädala alguses, on pikki positsioone käes hoida juba emotsionaalselt keeruline. Kuid lühikesi hirmutab jätkuvalt teadmine, et kolmapäeval tuleb Föderaalreservi intressimäära otsus ning et kui esmaspäeval 'maailma lõppu uuesti ei tule', siis on ehk enne Fedi raske langusele panustada ja tuleb hoopis kergendusralli... Kuna aga tulemuste hooaeg siiski käimas, siis iga päevaga on olukord võimeline muutuma ja sellega tuleks arvestada.

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