Börsipäev 29. jaanuar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Täna on taaskord oluline majandusandmete päev. Tund enne turu avanemist teatakse kestvuskaupade tellimuse numbrid. eelmine kuu oli see -0.1%, sedapuhku oodatakse ilusamat +1.6%list näitu. Graafik kestvuskaupade tellimuste kohta näeb välja selline:
Pool tundi pärast turu avanemist teatatakse tarbijausalduse indeksi näit, milleks oodatakse eelmise kuu näidust poolteise punkti võrra väiksemat näitu 87 punktiga. Numbrid, mis viitaksid, et USA majanduse jahenemine ei ole toimunud nii kiiresti, kui hetkel kardetakse, aitaksid aktsiaturule kaasa.
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Pidevalt täieneb tulemuste tabel. Üldiselt ootuste löömise osas oleme samal tasemel, kus viimastel kvartalitelgi. Pisut rohkem on see-eest ettevaatlikke prognoose. Eile andsid negatiivse väljavaate võrreldes analüütikute ootustega tulevikule BDK, ACTS, CNW, MSPD, NARA, PCL, SNDK, STLD ja ZRAN ning tänaseks on seni neile lisandunud CAH ja SII. Aga eks ettevõtted ole lihtsalt üha enam majanduskeskkonna muutumist oma prognoosidesse sisse arvestamas, kohati ilmselt ülearugi palju.
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Eilses börsipäevas sai põgusalt räägitud ka intressimäära kärpimise võimalikkusest Indias - reaalsuses jäeti täna aga intressid Indias muutmata 7.75% peal.
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karumõmm: ma vaatan praegu just pilti"Tallink Grupi juhatuse liige Lembit Kitter, juhatuse esimees Enn Pant, Tallink Grupi nõukogu liikmed Kustaa Lauri Äimä ja Sunil Kumar Nair." ja mõtlen, kas see KLÄ oli umbes samasuguse näoga ka siis, kui ta sulle eelmisel aasta Baltikumis positiivset börsiaastat lubas? :-)
8.-s foto -
Kestvuskaupade tellimuse numbrid on igaljuhul väga ilusad ja turg teeb hüppe ülespoole.
Durable Goods Orders ex-trans 2.6% vs +0.1% konsensus
Durable Goods Orders 5.2% vs 1.6% konsensus
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Saksamaa DAX +1.27%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +2.08%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.48%
Hispaania IBEX +1.59%
Venemaa MICEX +1.97%
Poola WIG +2.36%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.99%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.99%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.87%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.82%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.29%
Tai Set +1.41%
India Sensex -0.34%
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Beware the Soothsayers
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/29/2008 8:18 AM EST
He who asks fortunetellers the future unwittingly forfeits an inner intimation of coming events that is a thousand times more exact than anything they may say. He is impelled by inertia, rather than curiosity, and nothing is more unlike the submissive apathy with which he hears his fate revealed than the alert dexterity with which the man of courage lays hands on the future.
-- Walter Benjamin
It has always been my belief that the individual investor's best approach to the stock market is to be reactive as changes occur, rather than to try to anticipate how the market may act. Unfortunately, the media and most market pundits focus on prediction of future events. They try to be fortunetellers, which anyone who is familiar with the market knows is impossible to do consistently.
My approach to the market is to assume that the current trend will prevail and to adapt only as conditions actually change. Since I don't believe it is possible to predict the course of the market with any precision, it is better to be opportunistic as things change. This reduces risk and allows for bold, aggressive action when events change and begin to build momentum.
The current market situation provides a particularly good example of the difference in approach. Since the first of the year, the market has downtrended steadily, and many traditional Wall Street players encouraged buying all along the way in hopes that the bottom was at hand and a bounce was about to occur. If you listened to this advice, the great likelihood is that you bought too early and are still sitting on losses even though the market has bounced quite a bit in the last few days.
If you have been reactive rather than anticipatory, you probably have been sitting on a large amount of cash. You might have even put on some short positions or tried some quick long-side trades, but you would be respecting the fact that the market is technically broken and groping to find support. With a reactive approach, you would not have been heavily long when we had a bounce, but you would most likely have been far ahead of those investors who were fully invested as we trended down.
With the Fed interest rate cut on deck, there is going to be even more fortunetelling taking place. Pundits are going to tell us how the Fed is going to impact things and where we are headed from here. Most of them are going to be positive and will encourage you to be long, because after the pullback we have had things must surely get better from here.
Maybe, but until the charts begin to show that buyers are willing to sustain their buying and are going to pay up for stocks that have started to bounce, a few days of buying does not mean the market is healthy. It might make for some good short-term trading, but if your time frame is a few weeks, there is absolutely no reason to believe that the market has bottomed at this point.
Keep in mind that within a downtrend there will be some positive action that will look very good. It is extremely easy to rush in and declare that the worst is over and it's blue skies and apple pies from now on. That may turn out to be the case, but it will take time for adequate proof to be produced. If a real turn is occurring, there will be plenty of time to hop on board and profit from the new uptrend that is developing.
We have a slightly positive open on the way as the market contemplates what the Fed might do tomorrow. The rally yesterday has helped the mood, but earnings reports have been mixed and are keeping things contained.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ZMH +10.3%, LXK +9.1%, NNDS +8.6%, SSCC +8.4%, CXG +6.3%, ARM +6.2%, STLD +5.7%, VLO +4.9%, NSTC +4.9%, CX +4.2%, HW +4.0%, STLY +3.6%, ARG +3.4% (also increases dividend by 33%), IPAR +3.4%, AVY +3.2%, UNM +1.9%, DOW +1.8%, PLXT +1.3%... M&A news: QMAR +32.6% (to be acquired by Excel Maritime for ~$26.48/share)... Select drybulk shippers showing strength on news that EXM is buying QMAR: DSX +6.4%, EGLE +6.2%, TBSI +5.0%, DRYS +4.6%... Other news: LTON +12.1% (BroadWebAsia proposes to make significant investment in Linktone), LNY +5.1% (still checking), ABK +2.4% (JPMorgan files amended 13G disclosing increased 7.7% stake, up from prior stake of 5.4%)... Analyst upgrades: GERN +5.6% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), NOVL +4.8% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies, upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer), VMED +3.7% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), ARQL +3.2% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), ADCT +3.0% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), TTWO +2.2% (upgraded to Equal Weight at Lehman), MEDX +2.2% (initiated with Buy at UBS).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: VMW -27.7% (also downgraded to Average at Caris), ZRAN -20.2%, XPRT -18.7%, ICUI -15.7%, NHWK -12.6% (also downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), EMC -8.3%, RBI -6.8%, SII -6.5%, X -5.5%, AAI -5.3%, ALB -4.7% (also downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), EWBC -4.1%, USG -3.8%, CAH -2.9%, CLMS -2.9%, AXP -2.7%, CNW -2.7%, PCL -2.1%, MTH -1.5%... Other news: SEPR -5.3% (announced that it is conducting a review of its government price reporting), EXM -4.5% (announces plan to acquire QMAR), VTR -3.5% (announces a 3.9 mln share common stock offering)... Analyst downgrades: LEAP -4.5% (downgraded to Underperform at Wachovia), TGIC -3.9% (downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia), DIS -3.8% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), NILE -2.9% (downgraded to Sell at Amtech), MOLX -2.8% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), WABC -1.7% (downgraded to Hold at Stern Agee), LFC -1.3% (downgraded to Underperform at Bear Sterns), PMI -1.1% (downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia). -
Consumer Confidence 87.9 vs 87.0 consensus
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Rahvusvaheline Valuutafond vähendab maailmamajanduse kasvu väljavaadet 4.4% pealt 4.1% peale.
IMF cuts global growth outlook, warns on risks - Reuters
Reuters reports that the IMF cut its forecast for world growth this year in the face of continued stress in global credit markets, and warned that economic activity could slow even further. In an update to its semi-annual World Economic Outlook released in October, the IMF said it now expects the global economy to grow 4.1 pct versus an earlier forecast 4.4 pct. -
Hea kuulda, et töö võlakirjade kindlustajate probleemide lahendamisega käib.
Reuters reports New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer said he was working "extraordinarily hard" to aid troubled bond insurers, adding that he would do what is appropriate for the bond mkt, and the municipal mkt in particular. The Democratic governor told reporters: "We are deeply immersed in this to do what we think is appropriate for the marketplace and for the bond market and ... for the municipal market in particular." He added: "Beyond that, I don't want to say anything for budget reasons, but I think take it as a given that we're working extraordinarily hard on that issue and I think things are moving in a good direction." (ABK, MBI) -
CNBC commentator says the U.S. House is passing stimulus bill... it's not quite official yet, but at least 75% of the House members have voted for the economic stimulus package
Seega majanduse stimuleerimise pakett tundub kenasti võimude poolt heakskiitu saavat. -
Pärast turu sulgemist on oodata järgmiste ettevõtete majandustulemusi:
ALGN, ALGT, AMIS, BXP, CTX, CYMI, FBC, FLEX, HLIT, HTCH, IKAN, INFA, JLL, NETL, PXLW, SHOR, SLGN, TRMB, UDR, WBSN, YHOO -
Yahoo (YHOO) tulemustega väljas. Turule prognoosid ei meeldi ja aktsia järelturu kauplemises langenud 8% võrra:
YHOO prelim $0.15 vs $0.11 First Call consensus; revs ex tac $1.4 bln vs $1.41 bln First Call consensus.
YHOO sees Q1 revs ex tac $1.28-1.38 bln vs $1.37 bln First Call consensus
YHOO sees FY08 revs $5.35-5.95 bln vs $5.90 bln First Call consensus. -
(Vana hea) Tupperware väga ilusate numbritega ja aktsia +8%.
TUP sees Q1 $0.44-0.49 vs $0.43 First Call consensus; sees revs growth of 13-15%
TUP sees FY08 $2.50-2.60 vs $2.32 First Call consensus; sees revs growth of 8-10%
TUP prelim $0.93 vs $0.80 First Call consensus; revs $576.9 mln vs $532.10 mln First Call consensus -
Koduperenaised pressiva tööd rügavatelt meestelt kõvasti pappi välja. See ju ainuke "oma" asi kinnisvaraturul.
