Börsipäev 30. jaanuar - Fedi päev
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Täna kell 21.15 teatab Fed oma järjekordsest intressimäärade muutmise otsusest, seega kõik ennustused ja mõtted on teretulunud.
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shokiteraapia -75bps
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UBS teatas $14 miljardi suurusest mahakandmisest! Külm vesi turgudele avanedes.
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juhul kui kärbitakse 0,5% on see signaaliks, et FED-l on andmeid, et olukord on ikka väga s*** ja üha hullemaks läheb
loogiline oleks, et kärbitakse 0,25% - nii jahutatakse kohati tekkivat põhjendamatut optimismi ja samas on võimalus mõne ootamatu esmaspäeva või neljapäeva järel jälle äkilise kärpega aktsiaturule veidi õhku sisse puhuda -
ja miks peaks peale 0.75 langetamist veel alandama, kui see 0.75 oli tüng fedile prantsuse maakleri poolt?
Fed on nii hale! -
Yahoo (YHOO) eile avaldatud 4. kvartali tulemused olid üldiselt in-line, kuid turule ei meeldinud 2008-nda aasta prognoosid ja aktsia kauples järelturul 8% võrra madalamal. Neljandas kvartalis teeniti kasumit aktsia kohta $0.15, mis ületab analüütikute $0.11 suurust konsensust (tõsi, $0.02 võrra paranes kasuminumber madalama maksumäära tõttu). Käivet genereeriti $1.40 miljardit vs $1.41 miljardi suurune ootus.
Komistuskiviks said üllatavalt madalad 2008-nda aasta prognoosid: oodatava käibevahemiku keskpunkt on $5.65 miljardit, mis jääb alla $5.90 miljardi suurusele konsensusele. Veelgi murelikumaks teeb EBITDA prognoos – $1.85 miljardit vs oodatud $2.23 miljardit.
Citigroup on tulemuste järel Yahoo reitingut alandamas „Hoia“ peale varasemalt ostusoovituselt. Kolm peamist põhjust selleks on:
1) Uue prognoosi kohaselt 2008-ndal aastal EBITDA kasvu ei suudeta näidata. Seetõttu ei vääri Yahoo aktsia hind preemiat võrreldes traditsiooniliste meediaettevõtetega.
2) Selle aasta investeeringute osas valitsev määramatus on uus negatiivne aspekt. Samuti on raske ennustada investeeringute mõju kasumlikkusele.
3) Yahoo on endiselt kaotamas turuosa otsinguturul Google’le (GOOG).
Positiivsema poole pealt mainitakse võimalust Yahoo ülevõtuks ja valuatsiooni – aktsia selle aasta oodatav 7-kordne EV/EBITDA kordaja on võrreldav mainstream meediafirmadega. Hinnasiht langetatakse $22-ni, mis tähendaks 8-kordset järgmise aasta oodatavat EV/EBITDA suhet. -
Föderaalreservi endine esimees Alan Greenspan on igaljuhul seisukohal, et USA majanduslangusest päästmine saab keeruline ülesanne olema ning tema arvates on tõenäosus majanduslangusesse laskumiseks juba üle 50%... Ega ilma selliste muredeta ei oleks kohe kindlasti eelmine nädal baasintresse langetatud 75 baasipunkti võrra ning ilmselt tuleb agressiivset langetamist jätkata ka täna.
Greenspan says US' chanches of a recession is at least 50% - Reuters
Reuters reports the likelihood of the economy slipping into recession is at least 50%, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was quoted on Wednesday as saying. "I believe the probability of a recession is at least 50%, but up to now there are few signs that we are already in one," Greenspan said in an interview with weekly newspaper Die Zeit published in German. "In my opinion, it will probably happen but the facts suggest we are not there yet." Asked whether central bankers and financial policymakers could head off a U.S. recession, Greenspan said: "Probably not. Global economic influences today are stronger than almost anything that monetary or fiscal policy can counter them with." "Long-term real interest rates have significantly more influence on the core of the economy than decisions by national governments," he added. "And central banks have increasingly lost the ability to influence these long-term rates, whereas 20 or 30 years ago they still dominated there. "So the more important question today is in which direction long-term real interest rates are heading." -
see on ju hea kui majandus langeb, kõik läheks odavamaks
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ja usa presidendiks saab "must".
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vaevalt et ta must on, kyllap peseb ennast ikka tihti. Või pidasid sa hoopis silmas et ta on neeger?
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ma üritasin sündsalt väljenduda:)
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oh, pole mõtet, asju tuleb ikka õigete nimedega nimetada - neeger on väga sünnis öelda rääkimata sellest et ta on antrpoloogiliselt korrektne väljend ;)
Üks kõige haigem asi mida ma elus kuulnud olen on see, et "Pipi Pikksukk" tsenseeriti ära, nüüd ei olegi papa Eefraim enam neegrikuningas... Järgmisena tuleb välja et Pipi ema pole ka ingel, kuna nende olemasolu pole ju faktiliselt tõestatud -
ADP Employment Changes 130K vs 40K consensus
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WN: Kuuldavasti olla juba trükki antud ka laulu "Kümme väikest afroameeriklast noodid", et seda seni ripakile jäänud ebakõla likvideerida. Ja muuseas tundub ka USA's viimastel päevadel mingid "klaarimised" käima läinud: "Ben Stein is a charming, successful actor and writer who graduated at the top of his class from Yale Law School. Based on two of his recent columns in the New York Times, he's also an idiot".
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Nende numbrite järgi on Fedil ikkagi põhjust langetamist jätkata:
GDP Price Index +2.6% vs +2.6% consensus, prior +1.0%
Personal Consumption 2.0% vs +2.6% consensus, prior +2.8%
Q4 GDP-advanced +0.6% vs 1.2% consensus, prior 4.9%
Q4 Annualized Core PCE QoQ 2.7% vs. 2.5% consensus -
need + muud vahepealsed numbrid on nii- ja naapidi tõlgendatavad, mina küll päriselt ei välistaks seda, et fed turule pettumuse valmistab. Sestap see paari päeva eest taastatud hedge USA's. Ja muuseas leidsin veel ühe muidu ennast tavapäraselt "korrektselt" üleval pidava tegelase, kes ennast viimastel päevadel (ka) lõdvemaks on lasknud. Tasub tema arvamusi muuseas täitsa aeg-ajalt lugeda: W. Buiter
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Just Joeliga omavahel arutasime, et pidevalt saabuvate andmete vastuolulisus teeb olukorra hindamise päris keeruliseks. Ja kui kuulujutud, et vähemalt kaudselt tuli viimane langetamine prantsuse imemehe tõttu, tõesed on, siis võib turgudele pettumuse valmistamine reaalne olla. Panused on igal juhul kõrged ja eks see natuke lotot meenuta.
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headline GDP asemel tuleks vaadata rohkem sinna sisse ... ehk siis erinevate GDP komponentide liikumist
Fourth quarter real GDP was reported to have risen at a lower than expected 0.6% annual rate. A sharp decline in inventories took a whopping 1.3% off the number. Inventory swings over time essentially net out, and most economists focus on real final sales (GDP less inventories) as a better read on underlying demand. The swing in inventories may even now go the other way in the first quarter and help boost GDP. Personal spending, government spending, business investment, and net exports were all steady contributors to growth. Residential construction plunged 24%. The data are not as bad as the headline and do not reflect trends that suggest downward revisions to first quarter forecasts. -
LHV Pro viimane soovitus Sigma Design (SIGM) on saanud järjekorde kiitva hinnangu BWS Financialilt. Tegemist on tõsise Sigma pulliga, nende hinnasiht on $100. Meie hinnasiht on oluliselt konservatiivsem, jättes ikkagi ruumi tugevaks tõusuks. Aktsia maksab praegu $46.5.
BWS Financial notes SIGM could be due for a big gain when the co reports fiscal fourth quarter results in Feb. Deutsche Telekom (DT) ended 2007 with 150 thousand IPTV subscribers, of which 116 thousand were connected at the end of the year. The remainder would be connected in Jan; the month of SIGM's year end. The ramp in IPTV is starting to become a material number to carriers and SIGM. AT&T (T) added 105 thousand IPTV subscribers in the fourth quarter, and has increased its weekly install rate to 12 thousand. Verizon (VZ) elected to use the Company's ultra wideband ("UWB") processor for their IPTV service. Firm believes the Street continues to neglect the leadership value of SIGM and the growth of IPTV in their valuation of SIGM shares.
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Henno, nõus, seda juttu kinnitavad ka ADP Employment ja Durable Goods Orders.
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Saksamaa DAX -0.12%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.29%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.69%
Hispaania IBEX +0.55%
Venemaa MICEX -1.84%
Poola WIG +0.61%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.99%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.63%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.90%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.67%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -2.43%
Tai Set +1.14%
India Sensex -1.84%
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Waiting For a Cut, But Will It Matter?
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/30/2008 8:16 AM EST
The economy depends about as much on economists as the weather does on weather forecasters.
-- Jean-Paul Kauffmann
With the Federal Open Market Committee scheduled to release its interest rate decision at 2:15 p.m. EST today, the question on the minds of investors is whether more rate cuts are going to stop the economy from sliding into a recession. The market has found some support over the past week following a cut of 0.75 percentage points, and now the issue is whether another cut will boost us even further.
What complicates matters this time is that many feel that the Fed was duped into a hasty decision last week by the rogue trading scandal at French bank Societe Generale. Although another rate cut is widely anticipated, the thinking is that the Fed may be less aggressive in order to prove that it isn't simply reacting to moves in the equity market.
Our job this morning is to try to figure out how this market is going to react to the Fed. Although the general consensus is that Ben Bernanke and his crew will deliver a half-point cut, there is a large contingent that believes we may only see a quarter-point of relief.
If we do get a half-point cut, there seems to be a fairly high level of doubt among many market players that it is going to keep this market running. The bearish thinking is that another sizable cut is simply confirmation that we really are in trouble and that the Fed is scrambling to catch up. A quarter-point cut may be viewed as even worse, as it proves that the Fed really doesn't know what it is doing and is even further behind the curve now.
The bullish argument for a positive reaction to the Fed boils down to the old adage "don't fight the Fed." If the Fed is cutting, that means cheap money, and that is going to flow somewhere. In 2001 and 2002, the cheap money the Fed created went into real estate and caused the bubble and collapse that we are now dealing with.
The problem with rate cuts is that there is a substantial lag effect -- they aren't going to have a real impact for many months. That means that economic data are likely to get worse before they get better. Therefore, whether a rate cut boosts us in the short term is much more a function of psychology than anything substantive.
I'm concerned that the psychology of the market, even with another Fed cut, is not sufficiently positive to end the recent downtrend and put us on an upward trajectory. I'll be happy to be proved wrong, but from my standpoint, the downtrend is still intact; it is going to take a very positive and sustained reaction to the Fed to change that.
We have a soft start on the way as Yahoo! (YHOO) posted disappointing earnings, UBS (UBS ) takes a big subprime debt write-off and nervousness grows over the potency over the Fed. Buckle on your trading helmet and adjust your goggles -- we should have some fireworks this afternoon.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PXLW +25.0% (also announces "Modified Dutch Auction" tender offer for up to $50 million principal amount of its convertible debt securities), SLAB +11.9%, TUP +10.9%, HLIT +9.2%, WBSN +8.2%, BBOX +7.8%, CYBS +7.1%, EGLT +7.0% (also upgraded to Buy at Broadpoint), RHI +6.3%, FTD +6.3%, JBHT +6.1%, DSPG +4.8%, DOV +4.2%, AUO +4.2%, NEXC +3.5% (also acquires the Great American Cookie Company and expects to be accretive beginning in 2008), FLEX +3.3%, CALD +3.1%, RCL +2.8%, CSGS +2.8%, EK +2.2%, NETL +2.1%, SO +1.3%... M&A news: NUCO +16.3% (signs merger agreement with affiliates of Aurora Capital Group; shareholders to receive $30/share in all-cash offer)... Select drybulk names trading higher after Baltic Dry Index surges 5.1%, largest gain in 2 years - Bloomberg: DRYS +4.1%, TBSI +3.9%, EXM +3.5%, NM +2.6%... Other news: MAGS +16.7% (receives orders of approximately $45 mln to protect critical infrastructure facilities), PEIX +7.7% (among four companies selected by US Department of Energy to research commercial cellulose technology), RMBS +6.5% (might collect royalties of as much as $10 bln by winning a seven year fight with Hynix Semiconductor- Bloomberg), ETFC +6.3% (moves higher on insider purchases), GOLD +4.3% (still checking), CROX +4.2% (still checking), BHP +1.7% and RTP +1.5% (trade higher on talks that RTP books opened to BHP - Reuters), GFI +1.3% (still checking), LEH +1.1% (increases dividend; continues common stock repurchase program)... Analyst upgrades: ZQK +4.8% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), ALB +3.2% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), CSIQ +2.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: CLZR -21.6%, ALGN -20.7%, CYMI -19.3% (also downgraded to Hold at Brean Murray), HTCH -18.7% (also downgraded to Sell at Brean Murray), NATI -12.1% (also downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), CAB -11.5% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Wachovia), YHOO -10.0% (also downgraded to Hold at Citigroup, downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), BHI -6.0%, FDRY -5.5%, CTX -4.6% (also downgraded to Neutral at UBS), SLGN -3.7%, ADVNB -3.6%, MRK -3.2%, ITW -3.2%, HIFN -3.2%, AGN -3.1%, TRMB -2.3%, SAP -1.7%, WWW -1.6%, UPS -1.3%, BA -1.2%... Select Chinese names trading lower with weakness in overseas trading: LFC -5.8%, PTR -4.3%, CHL -4.0%, ACH -3.7%... Other news: HWAY -14.1% (Credit Suisse says would not be surprised to see stock settle in the low to mid $50s over the near term), RBS -2.8% (down in sympathy with UBS), ABK -2.6% (declares dividend of $0.07 per share, down from last qtr's dividend of $0.21), UBS -2.4% (to post record full-year loss on further mortgage write-downs), HK -1.2% (announces 18 mln share offering priced at $15 per share), SU -1.2% (Alberta says reaches royalty agreement with SU; says SU to pay 20% more royalties under new deal, talks continue - Reuters)... Analyst downgrades: COLM -4.2% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), S -3.5 (tgt lowered at Deutsche Bank), SMG -3.5% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), MER -1.9% (downgraded to Underperform at Oppenheimer), CNX -1.4% (downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James), HAFC -1.1% (downgraded to Underperform at Oppenheimer). -
LHV pro all oli kunagi (august, sept) BW ostu soovitus. Aktsia on tulnud oma tippudest ca 60% alla. Milline on seisukoht BW osas praegu?
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Kui ütlete inimese kohta must, siis see on mägilase, kaukaaslase, sõimusõna.
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ega keegi ei oska öelda, et kas kusagil USA majandse kohta selline kergesti jälgitav makro tabel ka olemas on ?
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MO prelim $1.00, ex items vs $0.97 First Call consensus.
PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL SPIN-OFF EFFECTIVE MARCH 28, 2008 -
blankkonsult,
BW on tegelikult äärmiselt huvitav firma ja iseenesest aktsia kukkumine on tervitatav nähtus (uute investorite seisukohast). Oma majandustulemused teatab ettevõte 8. veebruaril enne turu avanemist ning üldine ootus EPSi osas on 40 senti. See võib isegi pisut optimistlik olla, arvestades, et ettevõtte enda varasem prognoos oli $0.50 kuni $0.60, millele 21. detsembril lisati, et seoses ühe võtmekliendi erinõudmistega ruteeniumiäris, madalamate ruteeniumi hindadega ning nõrkusega ettevõtte ühes tootesegmendis tuleb 4. kvartalis arvestada nende sündmuste tulemusena kumuleeritult $0.20se negatiivse efektiga varasemale prognoosile.
Samas, negatiivsed uudised on väljas (või võimalik, et on lõplikult väljas ust pärast kvartalitulemuste teatamist) ning iga väiksemgi positiivne infokild aitaks aktsial kenasti tõusta. Pikemas perspektiivis ma usun, et vertikaalselt salvestavate meediatoodete võimuletulek on paratamatu ning aja jooksul kajastub see ka BW tulemustes. Kuid tasub kindlasti kannatust varuda.
Võin veel öelda, et BW on nii mõnegi analüüsimaja Top Pick’iks. -
Altria tulemused esmapilgul head, mõlema üksuse kõrge dividendide väljamakse ning aktsiate tagasiostuprogramm kokku $20.5 miljardi ulatuses on investorile tulevikus atraktiivsed präänikud. Pro all homme juba lähemalt.
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Intressimäära otsus siis kell 21.15. Ükskõik, mida Fed ka ei teeks, siis seekord on garanteeritud suured ja väga kiired liikumised selle tulemusena.
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FOMC cuts rates 50 basis points to 3.00% as most expected
Fed says 'downside risks to growth remain'
Fed to 'act in timely manner' to address risks
Fed says downside risks to growth remain, cumulative policy actions should promote growth,ease risks
fed says expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, will be necessary to monitor carefully
Fed says financial markets remain under considerable stress; business, household credit has tighten
Fed says actions to 'promote moderate growth over time' -
Teade ise siis selline:
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 3 percent.
Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, recent information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets.
The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but it will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
Today’s policy action, combined with those taken earlier, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate the risks to economic activity. However, downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred no change in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.
In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 50-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 3-1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco. -
mul trader keeras peale fedi täiega lolliks.
kas kellegil veel midagi analoogset? -
korra viskas kinni, aga nüüd töötab
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paar nädalat tagasi installisin nn vana versiooni, mis töötab paremini, kuigi ma ei saa aru, milles erinevus seisneb
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mul ei näita optsiooni noteeringuid :(
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Ei taha nagu osaliselt hindu näidata jah.
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Et hiljem oleks kergem meenutada turgude reaktsiooni Föderaalreservi 0.5%lisele kärpele (intressid 3.5%->3.0%), panen siia S&P500 futuurigraafiku:
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Infovood, mis Traderit Föderaalreservi otsuse järgselt läbivad on mõnikord lihtsalt nii suured, et tõesti ei näita kõiki hindu enam. Mul aitas selle vastu kenasti Traderi sulgemine ja uuesti avamine.
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HAHAHAHA... khm, tähendab - 0.5% raseerimine müüakse niiviisi alla tagasi...turg on "päris hea tervise" juures. Fucking joke.
Joke on see, kuidas Fed suurte pankade dikki sakib ja riskantseid kauboisid hädast päästa üritab.
Joke on ka see, kuidas selline measure saab nii totralt feilida. Bernanke = Greenspan = Tshernomõrdin: Hoteli polutshe, polutshilosj kak vsegda. -
näha on et seda poleks olnud küll enam vaja teha.
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FED, retsept!
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Amazon saab kõvasti makku järelturul.
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mis te virisete, vaadake seda kui võimalust, mitte kui õnnetust. Mõned võimalused just toituvad sellistest sündmustest. wink-wink:)
